The Delegate Fight: 2012

[anvi]

Yeah, a lot of that looks right to me, Torie.  I think Paul would be far more likely to help Mitt out in August if he needed it.  But with the delegate count going the way it is, and with big contests like Illinois, New York and California coming down the pike. Romney still looks on track without needing much help.  But, like I said, my predictions for this primary season have genuinely sucked, so we'll see.

[Lief]

If Dick Morris says that Romney will end up with 1298 delegates, then either Romney isn't getting a majority or we're in for a "broken clock" scenario.

[Bacon King]

If Dick Morris says that Romney will end up with 1298 delegates, then either Romney isn't getting a majority or we're in for a "broken clock" scenario.

Have no fear, Dick Morris is still an idiot.

• He counts unpledged RNC delegates in states delegate totals
• Some of the "Winner take all" states he counts for Romney are actually proportional (Oregon, Puerto Rico, etc)
• Other "WTA" states are actually caucus states or directly elected delegate states (WV, for example) where you can't really tell what's going on ahead of time anyway
• A lot of the states are really WTA by CD, like California, Wisconsin, Indiana, etc
• He's quite obviously just pulling numbers out of his ass for the "proportional representation" states he lists
• He also thinks Pennsylvania and North Carolina are WTA for some reason; PA elects delegates directly and NC is proportional
• He seems to think Romney will win in WV, NE, and ND

So, yeah, he really has no idea what he's talking about.

[ajb]

If Dick Morris says that Romney will end up with 1298 delegates, then either Romney isn't getting a majority or we're in for a "broken clock" scenario.

Have no fear, Dick Morris is still an idiot.

• He counts unpledged RNC delegates in states delegate totals
• Some of the "Winner take all" states he counts for Romney are actually proportional (Oregon, Puerto Rico, etc)
• Other "WTA" states are actually caucus states or directly elected delegate states (WV, for example) where you can't really tell what's going on ahead of time anyway
• A lot of the states are really WTA by CD, like California, Wisconsin, Indiana, etc
• He's quite obviously just pulling numbers out of his ass for the "proportional representation" states he lists
• He also thinks Pennsylvania and North Carolina are WTA for some reason; PA elects delegates directly and NC is proportional
• He seems to think Romney will win in WV, NE, and ND

So, yeah, he really has no idea what he's talking about.

Bringing back memories of his 2008 Electoral College maps, where Arkansas was Safe Obama, and Louisiana was a toss-up, but Indiana was Safe McCain. Good times.

[J. J.]

Have no fear, Dick Morris is still an idiot.

• Some of the "Winner take all" states he counts for Romney are actually proportional (Oregon, Puerto Rico, etc)
• He also thinks Pennsylvania and North Carolina are WTA for some reason; PA elects delegates directly and NC is proportional

I agree that Morris is an idiot, but PR is WTA, if a candidate gets above 50%.

PA does elect delegates directly, but no preference is listed on the ballot, and they are totally unpledged.  It is very possible that Santorum will win big in the popular vote in PA, and lose a plurality, or even a majority, of the delegates.

Phil and I both agree on the unpledged aspect (though not the result) in PA, and, despite the fact that we support different candidates, neither of us like it.

[Torie]

If Dick Morris says that Romney will end up with 1298 delegates, then either Romney isn't getting a majority or we're in for a "broken clock" scenario.

Have no fear, Dick Morris is still an idiot.

• He counts unpledged RNC delegates in states delegate totals
• Some of the "Winner take all" states he counts for Romney are actually proportional (Oregon, Puerto Rico, etc)
• Other "WTA" states are actually caucus states or directly elected delegate states (WV, for example) where you can't really tell what's going on ahead of time anyway
• A lot of the states are really WTA by CD, like California, Wisconsin, Indiana, etc
• He's quite obviously just pulling numbers out of his ass for the "proportional representation" states he lists
• He also thinks Pennsylvania and North Carolina are WTA for some reason; PA elects delegates directly and NC is proportional
• He seems to think Romney will win in WV, NE, and ND

So, yeah, he really has no idea what he's talking about.

Nice research job there BK. I was too lazy to do it. That's why I cut it down to around 1200 as a rough cut. Somebody using the demographic benchmarks that seem to be holding pretty well, could do a more refined analysis. But that would probably be silly, until we see how the Chicago suburbs vote. That is a big test for Mittens, and whether or not he continues to hold his demographic at the level he needs to, to secure his absolute majority, after adding in all the "softies."

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

That 48.5% figure should drop back down after next week. Mittens should get a huge margin of the delegates in Illinois, since it is winner take all by CD and effectively that way with the at large delegates, and Rick isn't on the ballot in four CD's.  On the other hand, Missouri sort of has the same system of allocation, and Rick should get a huge margin there. However, the state has 17 fewer delegates than Illinois.

Illinois is shaping up as a state probably next in importance to only Florida thus far. It should be a barn burner.  However, even if Rick wins many of the CD's, with his delegates not on the ballot in four CD's (it would be nice to know which ones, because if some or all of them are downstate, then Rick is really screwed), the odds are that Mittens will get all of the 12 at large delegates.

According to Erc's post on the 13th, it is the 4th, 5th, 7th and 13th that Rick doesn't have delegates. http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=145763.msg3215823#msg3215823

Three of them are in Chicago. I was concerned that the 7th might end up like MI-13. ILL-01 and 02 have significant suburban portions that should dominate a Republican contest enough to give them to Mittens.

The 13th is a downstate seat. How Romney does in the cities downstate, will likely determine the vote in the 13th, as well as the 17th and 18th. Rick probably has 12 and 15 secured.

[Bacon King]

The 13th is a downstate seat. How Romney does in the cities downstate, will likely determine the vote in the 13th, as well as the 17th and 18th. Rick probably has 12 and 15 secured.

The 13th includes Springfield, some wealthier St. Louis exurbs, and the wealthy and white collar cities of Bloomington and Champaign. Decatur is probably the only populated area in the district that would vote for Santorum, but it'll certainly be outvoted. Even if Romney doesn't win anywhere else downstate, I think he'll carry the 13th anyway. I don't think Santorum's delegate problems here will be an issue.

[Torie]

That 48.5% figure should drop back down after next week. Mittens should get a huge margin of the delegates in Illinois, since it is winner take all by CD and effectively that way with the at large delegates, and Rick isn't on the ballot in four CD's.  On the other hand, Missouri sort of has the same system of allocation, and Rick should get a huge margin there. However, the state has 17 fewer delegates than Illinois.

Illinois is shaping up as a state probably next in importance to only Florida thus far. It should be a barn burner.  However, even if Rick wins many of the CD's, with his delegates not on the ballot in four CD's (it would be nice to know which ones, because if some or all of them are downstate, then Rick is really screwed), the odds are that Mittens will get all of the 12 at large delegates.

According to Erc's post on the 13th, it is the 4th, 5th, 7th and 13th that Rick doesn't have delegates. http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=145763.msg3215823#msg3215823

Three of them are in Chicago. I was concerned that the 7th might end up like MI-13. ILL-01 and 02 have significant suburban portions that should dominate a Republican contest enough to give them to Mittens.

The 13th is a downstate seat. How Romney does in the cities downstate, will likely determine the vote in the 13th, as well as the 17th and 18th. Rick probably has 12 and 15 secured.

Guys, for reasons in some controversy, and whether the Romney guy on the scene went rogue, or Romney decided to do a beau geste, Mittens withdrew his objections, and Rick no longer has a failure to file delegates issue, and the issue is moot. I could spend some time to document this, but just trust the old man this time. Mittens had a notarization in Mass rather than Illinois notarization problem (as a lawyer that one sounds like real BS, since foreign state notarizations are accepted across state lines, but I digress), and that went away too.

I read somewhere back when that the CD's were in Mittens country (well the Chicago burbs), and so maybe that is the real explanation;  if Mittens lost these 4 CD's, or most of them, the least of his worries would be the delegates involved - his demographic base would have eroded to the point where he would be on life support.  So why not do a "costless" beau geste? It may give him a card later.

CC:  Keystone Phil
       Bacon King

[Erc]

Aren't the ballots already drawn up?  I've got a sample ballot linked in the main Illinois post, and the Cook County Clerk still shows no Santorum delegates as candidates for the addresses I've checked in CD 5.

This is a real loophole primary; the vote for delegates, not the topline Presidential vote, is what matters.  (Occasionally it does make a difference; Dennis Hastert got elected as a Romney delegate in 2008 on the basis of his personal vote despite an overall McCain sweep)

I don't know what Romney offered, but if those delegates aren't on the ballot, Santorum's outta luck.

[Torie]

Aren't the ballots already drawn up?  I've got a sample ballot linked in the main Illinois post, and the Cook County Clerk still shows no Santorum delegates as candidates for the addresses I've checked in CD 5.

This is a real loophole primary; the vote for delegates, not the topline Presidential vote, is what matters.  (Occasionally it does make a difference; Dennis Hastert got elected as a Romney delegate in 2008 on the basis of his personal vote despite an overall McCain sweep)

I don't know what Romney offered, but if those delegates aren't on the ballot, Santorum's outta luck.

Right you are Erc. The Mittens concession was for a shortage of petitions for 30 other delegates. Rick is still out of the hunt for 12 delegates in the four CD's - all of which will probably go to Mittens anyway I guess. The story was updated to so clarify since I read it, in my defense.

By the way, will the remaining 6 delegates for the 2 Alabama CD's still up in the air ever be allocated in my lifetime? 

[Torie]

Aren't the ballots already drawn up?  I've got a sample ballot linked in the main Illinois post, and the Cook County Clerk still shows no Santorum delegates as candidates for the addresses I've checked in CD 5.

This is a real loophole primary; the vote for delegates, not the topline Presidential vote, is what matters.  (Occasionally it does make a difference; Dennis Hastert got elected as a Romney delegate in 2008 on the basis of his personal vote despite an overall McCain sweep)

I don't know what Romney offered, but if those delegates aren't on the ballot, Santorum's outta luck.

This is a popular vote exercise, not a delegate exercise. Most of these little counties just don't mean a damn really. Rick will win a couple of CD's where he has delegates, and that is about it. That is my guess.

[Erc]

By the way, will the remaining 6 delegates for the 2 Alabama CD's still up in the air ever be allocated in my lifetime? 

Unlikely; the AP still hasn't called a few delegates in TN, and they've had a week longer (and far more resources than I do) to figure those out.

[Torie]

[Likely Voter]

That is cool. Why not break out all the candidates. I think it will be interesting to see how each approaches the 100% mark.

We know once Santorum hits the mark, phrases like "impossible to reach" and "mathematically eliminated" will feature prominently in every press release when talking about Rick, Newt and Ron.

[Torie]

Nobody thinks somebody not named Mittens has a shot to get to a majority of delegates on their own.

Here is the chart after projecting Illinois, giving Rick all 5 CD's that he has a shot of winning where he has filed for delegates. I know Mittens has one super delegate, the party chairman, Brady, who has endorsed him, but I don't count supers unless CNN counts them (and he may have already been counted - in fact he probably has).  

[Likely Voter]

Nobody thinks somebody not named Mittens has a shot to get to a majority of delegates on their own.

Obviously that is true. But I think it is interesting to countdown to the 100% threshold as we know that Romney will make a big point about that. I expect it will happen on 4/24.

Also it is interesting to keep track of the % won for each candidate and not just Romney.

Just a suggestion, it is your chart. I was thinking of doing one myself but since you are that close I was hoping you could save me the trouble. Maybe others will find it useful too.

[Torie]

Nobody thinks somebody not named Mittens has a shot to get to a majority of delegates on their own.

Obviously that is true. But I think it is interesting to countdown to the 100% threshold as we know that Romney will make a big point about that. I expect it will happen on 4/24.

Also it is interesting to keep track of the % won for each candidate and not just Romney.

Just a suggestion, it is your chart. I was thinking of doing one myself but since you are that close I was hoping you could save me the trouble. Maybe others will find it useful too.

Is this what you are looking for?

[Likely Voter]

great thanks!

[J. J.]

Nice job everyone.

[Torie]

great thanks!

You're welcome. After Tuesday, Rick will just need to win about 70% of the delegates left, and he will have this wrapped up by June.

[Lief]

I think a lot of Torie's numbers are premature until we get more concrete information from the caucus state conventions. Romney is likely to lose a fair number of delegates from the current estimates.

[Torie]

I think a lot of Torie's [CNN's] numbers are premature until we get more concrete information from the caucus state conventions. Romney is likely to lose a fair number of delegates from the current estimates.

Fixed. How many of those delegates might be in play?  40 delegates max? What states might this happen in?  I ask, because no doubt you or someone else, following far more the Paulite antics, might know better than I. So I am merely asking, not hectoring - this time.

[Matthew]

I think a lot of Torie's numbers are premature until we get more concrete information from the caucus state conventions. Romney is likely to lose a fair number of delegates from the current estimates.

Santorum is just as open to Ron Paul stealing his soft delegates. Missouri, Minnesota are two states that Santorum could lose as many if not more then Romney.

[realisticidealist]

Nevada, Washington, and maybe Alaska are places Paulites could steal a bunch from Romney.