The Delegate Fight: 2012

[Lief]

Erc, I don't think you're reading the rules right. The delegates that would have gone to candidate who did not meet the threshold become uncommitted. It should be Santorum 10, Romney 5, Uncommitted 5 (+5).

[Smash255]

Erc, I don't think you're reading the rules right. The delegates that would have gone to candidate who did not meet the threshold become uncommitted. It should be Santorum 10, Romney 5, Uncommitted 5 (+5).

green papers has it as 13 to 7 as well, but also has another explanation.

[Minnesota Mike]

Erc, I don't think you're reading the rules right. The delegates that would have gone to candidate who did not meet the threshold become uncommitted. It should be Santorum 10, Romney 5, Uncommitted 5 (+5).

I believe you are correct.

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2012/03/2012-republican-delegate-allocation_23.html

[Colbert]

what is an unplegged delegate? A free delegate with no obligation to vote for "his" candidate?

[J. J.]

what is an unplegged delegate? A free delegate with no obligation to vote for "his" candidate?

A delegate that is not bound to support any candidate; he may use his own judgment when voting.

[Colbert]

ok, thanks

based on this : http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/scorecard/statebystate/r

I count 534 solid delegates for romney

259+134+71 solid anti-mitt delegates = 464

and 39 unplegged


so, maybe nothing is done for the convention, hu?

[Erc]

Erc, I don't think you're reading the rules right. The delegates that would have gone to candidate who did not meet the threshold become uncommitted. It should be Santorum 10, Romney 5, Uncommitted 5 (+5).

I went back and forth on that interpretation, as the RNC rules themselves seemed somewhat ambiguous.

Here are the rules in question:

RULE NO. 19

(d) After the election of District Delegates and Alternates set forth above, the convention shall proceed to the election of twenty (20) at large delegates. After the election of at large delegates, the convention shall proceed to the election of twenty (20) at large alternate delegates.

(e) After the elections above, the convention shall proceed to the election of the remainder of at large delegates and alternates to be elected. The remainder of at large delegates and alternate delegates to be elected shall be nominated by the Executive Committee.

RULE NO. 20

(b) At Large Delegates elected in accordance with Rule 19 (d) shall be allocated to a Presidential candidate only if a candidate receives at least 25% of votes in the Presidential Preference Primary. If a candidate receives at least 25% of the votes in the Presidential Preference Primary, that candidate shall be allocated at large delegates in proportion to the percentage of the votes received, rounded to the nearest delegate. If no candidate receives at least 25% of the votes in the Presidential Preference Primary, such at large delegates are designated as uncommitted. All other at large delegates shall be allocated and designated as uncommitted.

The question is, how to interpret that last line of Rule 20 (b).  What are "all other at large delegates"?  Since the rest of the rule was dealing with the at large delegates elected in accordance with Rule 19 (d), I figured that "all other at large delegates" referred to the other at large delegates, i.e. those elected in accordance with Rule 19 (e).  All 20 delegates under Rule 19 (d) are allocated by the results of the primary, among threshold-meeting candidates.

The other interpretation is that "all other at large delegates" refers to both those elected in accordance with Rule 19 (e) and anything left over from the allocation in the rest of Rule 20 (b).  This seems to go along better with the rest of Rule 20 (b), though it would render the second-to-last line of Rule 20 (b) rather superfluous.

On net, it seems that I chose the worse interpretation.  As the media have uniformly gone with the latter interpretation, I'll go along with them as well.

The authoritative statement would of course come from the LA GOP, but they're having bandwidth issues at the moment.

[J. J.]

Erc, I don't think you're reading the rules right. The delegates that would have gone to candidate who did not meet the threshold become uncommitted. It should be Santorum 10, Romney 5, Uncommitted 5 (+5).

You are in agreement with Fox. 

[nclib]

Any updated results on CD's? I know Santorum only won IL-12, IL-15, and IL-17, and Romney the rest of IL. LA is of course Santorum except for possibly LA-2.

[J. J.]

Any updated results on CD's? I know Santorum only won IL-12, IL-15, and IL-17, and Romney the rest of IL. LA is of course Santorum except for possibly LA-2.

I think someone mentioned they were not up at this point.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Green Papers has them: http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/IL-R#0320

Looks like all the districts voted for a full ticket of the district winner, except IL-16 and IL-18 that gave Santorum one delegate.

[Erc]

The last possible day for Colorado County Assemblies was today, though it appears the last in fact finished on the 25th.

Lack of centralized reporting and large numbers of explicitly 'Uncommitted' delegates (some of which may be unity Anti-Romney tickets, others of which may be stealth Paul delegates) make it hard to make accurate projections.

This source has some scattered results and general reporting; I know other articles have been posted elsewhere on the forums.

Congressional District Conventions are held on April 12 and 13, and the State Convention is on April 14.


Next on the agenda:  Minnesota's BPOU Conventions wrap up this Saturday, and we have the first State Convention of the season, in North Dakota, concluding its business on Sunday.

[Minnesota Mike]

Minnesota's 7th congressional district convention is also this weekend.

http://mncd7gop.com/Convention_Information.html

This should be Santorum's best district in the state, anything less than getting all 3 National Convention delegates would be a sign of trouble.

[Minnesota Mike]

MN 7th District convention elects 2 Santorum Delegates and 1 Paul Delegate.

https://twitter.com/#!/patandersonmn

This should have been Santorum's best district, he got around 57% in the straw poll.

[Erc]

MN 7th District convention elects 2 Santorum Delegates and 1 Paul Delegate.

https://twitter.com/#!/patandersonmn

This should have been Santorum's best district, he got around 57% in the straw poll.

Thanks!  Moved a delegate from Santorum to Paul on the front page.

[jmc247]

What offically happens to Newt's delegates if he does drop out?

[Torie]

Assuming Mittens wins Wisconsin, I think I know the delegate count this time, so I might as well put it up 3 days early. I added in Utah since there is no suspense there, so the measurement is for the balance of the run ex-Utah. Ron Paul, as an example, ex-Utah, will have a rather uphill climb to win a majority of the delegates, a mere 97% of them.   Mittens needs about 37%.

[Yelnoc]

Isn't the majority 1144 rather than 1044?

[Torie]

Isn't the majority 1144 rather than 1044?

1040 assures a plurality.

[Erc]

North Dakota chose its delegation Saturday morning.

It appears that the original slate of delegates nominated by the Committee on Permanent Organization was indeed elected at the convention; additional names were put forward in nomination on the floor, but none of them were elected.

The 25 delegates chosen include Rick Berg and John Hoeven (as expected), First Lady Betsy Dalrymple, Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem, and seven state legislators. 

The 28 delegates (the 25 chosen plus 3 RNC members) may choose as a group to vote based on the caucus results; however, they need not do so, in which case they are simply unpledged delegates.  If, as is rumored, most of the 25 are pro-Romney, they will likely choose not to follow the results of the caucus and just vote for Romney.

At least one of the 25 delegates (Gary Emineth) is in the Santorum camp.

When I get a full list of delegates I may change the main page; most likely the vast majority will move into the "Uncommitted" column and be treated like superdelegates.

[Erc]

Twitter rumor is 20 Romney, 6 Santorum, 2 Paul. 

I'm a bit skeptical of this, because the total is 28, and (as far as I know) the 3 RNC members haven't committed to a candidate yet.  Perhaps this may be including the RNC Committeeman and Committeewoman elected at the convention (whose terms start after the close of proceedings at Tampa), and assuming Stan Stein is in the Romney camp?

Hopefully we have a bit more info in the coming days.

[Lief]

That's disgusting...

[argentarius]

So were the caucuses just a beauty contest? It truly is a joke that 3rd place can get the vast majority of delegates.

[J. J.]

So were the caucuses just a beauty contest? It truly is a joke that 3rd place can get the vast majority of delegates.

It is like MO in that circumstance.

[argentarius]

So were the caucuses just a beauty contest? It truly is a joke that 3rd place can get the vast majority of delegates.

It is like MO in that circumstance.

Yeah but it's wrong because the revaLOOshun is getting fked here, unlike in MO.