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« Reply #50 on: January 11, 2012, 02:34:58 pm »
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Question:

What happens to pledged or unpledged delegates for a candidate who drops out later ?

Does the drop-out candidate need to "free" these delegates or will they vote for the candidate who dropped out anyway or can they just choose at the convention for which candidate they vote for ?
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« Reply #51 on: January 11, 2012, 06:45:24 pm »
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Question:

What happens to pledged or unpledged delegates for a candidate who drops out later ?

Does the drop-out candidate need to "free" these delegates or will they vote for the candidate who dropped out anyway or can they just choose at the convention for which candidate they vote for ?

The 'pledging' of delegates is completely left up to the states (whether state law or state Republican Party rules) by RNC rules, so be aware that policies may vary wildly from state to state.  Also unclear is how any such rules would (or could) be enforced at the RNC.

Often, they don't provide explicit rules for candidates dropping out of the race.  This is complicated by the fact that so few people actually 'drop out' officially (they 'suspend their campaign,' for FEC purposes).

Due to the lack of any real enforcement mechanisms (or a desire to enforce them, especially for dropped-out candidates), I imagine once a candidate has dropped out and expressed verbally that he's releasing his delegates, the delegates will be able to vote for whomsoever they wish.

Note that officially, any candidate for nomination at the convention must be able to call upon a plurality of delegates from 5 states in order to have his name put forward.  So a candidate who dropped out early couldn't be put forth in the first place (though of course Romney '08 or Huckabee '08 could have in theory).  In practice, this doesn't seem to actually mean much---Ron Paul got 21 votes at the 2008 convention despite obviously not meeting this standard.
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« Reply #52 on: January 11, 2012, 06:50:45 pm »
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Also of interest in Iowa-style caucus states where the process has multiple steps over several months is what happens to supporters of dropped-out candidates in the meantime.

This was of some importance on the Democratic side in Iowa last time, where Edwards you will recall placed 2nd in the caucuses.  Clinton supporters should have made a better effort to make sure Edwards supporters continued to support Edwards (or remained unpledged), voting tactically when feasible and necessary.  Instead, a lot of support flaked off at the county conventions in favor of Obama.  They realized their mistake by the next round of conventions, but a lot of damage had been done already.

This may be of some importance in Iowa this time around, depending on who drops out.
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« Reply #53 on: January 16, 2012, 12:56:58 am »
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With Huntsman dropping out, I've moved his two delegates to the uncommitted column.  Hopefully this isn't too premature (a la Perry's "reassessing my campaign").

Even if Huntsman should endorse someone, he can't force his delegates to do so, so unless I hear from the delegates themselves, they're staying uncommitted.  That said, I don't even know who they are at the moment.  (I found an alphabetical list of all the delegate candidates, which is apparently what was filed with the NH SoS, but I have no idea which 2 of those are going to the convention).
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« Reply #54 on: January 20, 2012, 05:43:08 pm »
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Iowa and Perry's Endorsement of Gingrich

With Perry dropping out and endorsing Gingrich, it's entertaining to think about what might happen if Perry's supporters at the County Conventions took this to heart and supported Gingrich.  Note that a combined Perry + Gingrich takes 3rd place in Iowa, ahead of Paul.

Before I go forward, note that this 'analysis' doesn't take into account that each precinct only got an integral number of delegates to the county conventions, and so candidates further down the line (like Perry and Gingrich) are the most likely to get short shrift.  Thus, the following gives far too much credit to Gingrich, but can be viewed as somewhat of an upper bound (assuming Santorum stays in the race).

We note that Gingrich (+ Perry) placed 3rd in CD 1 (ahead of Santorum and just barely behind Paul), 4th in CD 2, 2nd in CD 3 (behind Romney but ahead of Santorum), and 2nd in CD 4 (behind Santorum but ahead of Romney).

Applying the recipe I used earlier, this means the winners of delegates by CD are:
Romney 4
Santorum 3
Gingrich 3
Paul 2

while the nomination committee has a breakdown of
Romney - 3
Santorum - 2
Gingrich - 2
Paul - 1

The committee nominates a slate of 5 Romney, 5 Santorum, and 3 Gingrich delegates, which is approved by the convention at large over the objections of the Paul delegates.

Total Delegates:
Romney - 9
Santorum - 8
Gingrich - 6
Paul - 2

Again, this is for entertainment purposes only, and I'm not changing the main page results for Iowa at the moment.  Perry's supporters at the caucuses are not guaranteed to all jump on the Newt Bandwagon, repeated rounding errors tend to disfavor Newt & Perry, and above all it's very unlikely that both Gingrich and Santorum will both be in the race in June.
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« Reply #55 on: January 21, 2012, 01:22:13 am »
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Here's an intriguing bit that might just matter. Florida's rules call for it to be statewide WTA only if they get sanctioned, so they'd revert to the statewide + CD rule if they are not.  If the winner gets 14 or fewer of the 27 CD's and the second place finisher gets the other 13 or more, then a reversion to being unsanctioned results in a net improvement in the delegate totals for the second place finisher.  Now unless the statewide winner has his vote concentrated in only a few CDs this likely won't matter much, but if every delegate counts, it could.

If Santorum drops out after a Newt win tonight, it looks like Florida will be a close battle.
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« Reply #56 on: January 21, 2012, 12:51:09 pm »
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Pretty sure FL has already been sanctioned for the early primary.
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« Reply #57 on: January 21, 2012, 01:04:53 pm »
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Pretty sure FL has already been sanctioned for the early primary.

The Green Papers show they have 50 delegates remaining out of the original 99 for a penalty of 50%.
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« Reply #58 on: January 21, 2012, 01:20:37 pm »
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But the RNC could presumably un-sanction them, as was done by the DNC with Florida and Michigan in 2008.
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« Reply #59 on: January 21, 2012, 06:16:09 pm »
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But the RNC could presumably un-sanction them, as was done by the DNC with Florida and Michigan in 2008.

Exactly, and my point was that because of the difference in how the delegates are awarded in the two cases, the second place finisher could be the one to want Florida desanctioned.
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« Reply #60 on: January 21, 2012, 06:20:06 pm »
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Here's an intriguing bit that might just matter. Florida's rules call for it to be statewide WTA only if they get sanctioned, so they'd revert to the statewide + CD rule if they are not.  If the winner gets 14 or fewer of the 27 CD's and the second place finisher gets the other 13 or more, then a reversion to being unsanctioned results in a net improvement in the delegate totals for the second place finisher.  Now unless the statewide winner has his vote concentrated in only a few CDs this likely won't matter much, but if every delegate counts, it could.

If Santorum drops out after a Newt win tonight, it looks like Florida will be a close battle.

Aren't they supposed to be proportional because they're an early state?
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« Reply #61 on: January 21, 2012, 07:12:34 pm »
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Here's an intriguing bit that might just matter. Florida's rules call for it to be statewide WTA only if they get sanctioned, so they'd revert to the statewide + CD rule if they are not.  If the winner gets 14 or fewer of the 27 CD's and the second place finisher gets the other 13 or more, then a reversion to being unsanctioned results in a net improvement in the delegate totals for the second place finisher.  Now unless the statewide winner has his vote concentrated in only a few CDs this likely won't matter much, but if every delegate counts, it could.

If Santorum drops out after a Newt win tonight, it looks like Florida will be a close battle.

Aren't they supposed to be proportional because they're an early state?
I think the case is that if they had gone when they were supposed to, they would be sanctioned if they didn't apportion some of the delegates by CD, but since they are already being sanctioned for going early, they don't face a second sanction for assigning them by statewide WTA.
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« Reply #62 on: January 21, 2012, 07:13:31 pm »
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There has been some movement to penalize them again, but I don't think anything has come of it.
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« Reply #63 on: January 21, 2012, 07:30:39 pm »
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Florida: January 31

Overview
50 Delegates (2.18% of total)
Primary
Winner-Take-All

All 50 delegates in Florida are assigned to the statewide winner.

Florida violated RNC rules by holding its primary before the first Tuesday in February, and thus lost half of its delegates.  It is possible these may may be restored later by the RNC, in which case the Florida Primary would be assigning 99 delegates (2 per CD, for a total of 54, and 45 At-Large.  Both would be Winner-Take-All by jurisdiction).  

Since Florida is assigning its delegates as Winner-Take-All, it is also violating RNC rules forbidding such contests before April.  The RNC may choose to again penalize Florida, but this seems very unlikely.

RNC Members

In the event sanctions are lifted on Florida, its RNC members are bound to the winner of the primary, and are included in the 45 At-Large delegates noted above.

Results (as of 2/1)

Romney won the state and all 50 delegates.

In the event sanctions are removed, it appears Gingrich won no more than 5 CD's in the state (as an absolute maximum), which would correspond to a breakdown of 89 Romney - 10 Gingrich, as a best case scenario for Gingrich.  Note that this is a far worse relative result than the penalized case, so it will be Romney pushing for a removal of sanctions at the convention (while Gingrich would be pushing for further sanctions).

The exact breakdown in the absence of sanctions is further complicated by the fact that redistricting has not been finalized in Florida, so tabulating the vote according to whatever district lines are finalized may be very difficult, if not impossible if precincts are split.  It is telling that the 50 delegates that Florida gets with sanctions will be selected two per current (2000 census) CD.  If sanctions are removed, my bet is that the remaining 49 delegates will be chosen at-large.
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« Reply #64 on: January 21, 2012, 07:36:28 pm »
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As Gingrich has been projected to win South Carolina, I've assigned him the 11 At-Large delegates from the state.  The 14 CD delegates are to come later pending results.
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« Reply #65 on: January 21, 2012, 10:15:46 pm »

Here's an intriguing bit that might just matter. Florida's rules call for it to be statewide WTA only if they get sanctioned, so they'd revert to the statewide + CD rule if they are not.  If the winner gets 14 or fewer of the 27 CD's and the second place finisher gets the other 13 or more, then a reversion to being unsanctioned results in a net improvement in the delegate totals for the second place finisher.  Now unless the statewide winner has his vote concentrated in only a few CDs this likely won't matter much, but if every delegate counts, it could.

If Santorum drops out after a Newt win tonight, it looks like Florida will be a close battle.

Aren't they supposed to be proportional because they're an early state?
I think the case is that if they had gone when they were supposed to, they would be sanctioned if they didn't apportion some of the delegates by CD, but since they are already being sanctioned for going early, they don't face a second sanction for assigning them by statewide WTA.

Yes, the RNC has no provision for sanctioning the states more than 50%.  So because they're already being sanctioned for going too early, they can't be sanctioned anymore for being WTA.
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« Reply #66 on: January 21, 2012, 10:31:58 pm »
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With Beaufort County finally coming in, I'm feeling confident enough to call CD 1 for Romney, with the other 6 CD's, of course, for Gingrich.

Romney narrowly avoids getting shut out in SC, but Gingrich still makes off like a bandit, with 23 delegates to Romney's 2.  In fact, in the span of the last few hours, Gingrich has gone from having zero delegates to having the lead.

And to think I thought this thread would be coming to an early conclusion in a couple of weeks.  Looks like we're in for the long haul, folks.

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« Reply #67 on: January 21, 2012, 10:32:49 pm »
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Beaufort County is actually in CD-2 now, isn't it? I don't know that anybody's calling CD-1 at the moment.
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« Reply #68 on: January 21, 2012, 11:20:24 pm »
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With Beaufort County finally coming in, I'm feeling confident enough to call CD 1 for Romney, with the other 6 CD's, of course, for Gingrich.

Romney narrowly avoids getting shut out in SC, but Gingrich still makes off like a bandit, with 23 delegates to Romney's 2.  In fact, in the span of the last few hours, Gingrich has gone from having zero delegates to having the lead.

And to think I thought this thread would be coming to an early conclusion in a couple of weeks.  Looks like we're in for the long haul, folks.



Premature call  IMO. By my math CD 01 is within a few hundred votes one way or another. Probably a slight lean to Romney but definitely  to close to call.
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« Reply #69 on: January 22, 2012, 12:07:42 am »
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Beaufort County is actually in CD-2 now, isn't it? I don't know that anybody's calling CD-1 at the moment.

No, Beaufort was in the 2nd.  It's now split between the 1st and 6th.
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« Reply #70 on: January 22, 2012, 07:11:48 pm »
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Beaufort County is actually in CD-2 now, isn't it? I don't know that anybody's calling CD-1 at the moment.

No, Beaufort was in the 2nd.  It's now split between the 1st and 6th.

Ah. Thank you.
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« Reply #71 on: January 23, 2012, 01:37:04 pm »
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Early February Caucuses

Note that, since Nevada is allowed to go early by RNC rules, and none of the other contests actually award delegates, none of the states below suffer delegate penalties.

Missouri holds a Primary on February 7.  As it assigns no delegates (the delegate-selection process does not begin until the March 17 caucuses), it is not discussed below.

Nevada: February 4

Overview
28 Delegates (1.22% of total)
Caucus
At-Large Proportional (3.57% cutoff)

Nevada is holding a caucus---however, unlike in previous years, the final slate of delegates elected by the State Convention in May must reflect the results of the Presidential Preference Straw Poll taken at the caucus.  As this is a relatively new development, the exact details of how it must be proportional (i.e. rounding) have yet to be decided (and may be fought over at the convention)---however, it does appear that the cutoff to receive any delegates is 1/28th of the total vote, or 3.57%.  

RNC Members
The 3 RNC Member delegates are bound by this process as well, and are not free to vote their conscience, at least on the first ballot.

Preliminary Results (as of 2/5)
Romney - 14
Gingrich - 6
Paul - 5
Santorum - 3

The Nevada GOP says that delegate allocations will be rounded to the nearest whole number; as, in this case, this results in a total of 28 delegates, there are no rounding ambiguities here.

It would appear that Paulistas have hijacked the Clark County convention, and will likely control the State Convention (May 5-6).  Although they can handpick the delegation, they will still be bound as above on the first ballot.  They may attempt to change the rules, but the RNC does not generally recognize rules changes made after October 1, 2011.

Colorado:  February 7, 2012

Overview
36 Delegates (1.57% of total)
Caucus / Convention
12 At-Large
22 by CD
3 RNC Members

Colorado has a typical Caucus/Convention setup, in the same vein as Iowa.  Precinct caucuses elect delegates to County Assemblies, as well as hold a Presidential Preference Straw Poll.  It is the former that actually matter; they, in turn, elect delegates to the District Conventions and the State Convention.  The District Conventions (March 29 - April 13) choose the 21 CD delegates, while the State Convention (April 14) chooses the 12 At-Large Delegates.

RNC Members
Ryan Call
Mark Hillman
Lilly Nunez

Preliminary Results (as of 2/9)
Santorum - 17
Romney - 12
Gingrich - 2
Paul - 2

This does not account for the usual host of Iowa-style caucus caveats.  Additionally, the Colorado GOP has not released results by precinct, so the CD allocations are sheer guesswork, especially in the counties surrounding Denver.

Minnesota:  February 7, 2012

Overview
40 Delegates (1.75% of total)
Caucus / Convention
13 At-Large
24 by CD
3 RNC Members

Minnesota has a typical Caucus/Convention setup, in the same vein as Iowa.  Precinct Caucuses elect delegates to BPOU Conventions, as well as hold a Presidential Preference Straw Poll.  It is the former that actually matter; these BPOU (Basic Political Organization Unit---a County, State House District, or State Senate District) Conventions (to be held by March 31) in turn elect delegates to the District Conventions and the State Convention.   The District Conventions (March 31 - April 21) choose the 24 CD delegates, while the State Convention (May 4 - 5) chooses the 13 At-Large delegates.

RNC Members
Tony Sutton
Jeff Johnson - Gingrich
Pat Anderson

Preliminary Results (as of 3/31)
Santorum - 28
Paul - 5
Romney - 4

Discussion can be found here and in preceding posts.  Basically, Santorum won majorities in enough precincts so that by the time of the state convention he has a majority statewide and in 4 of the 8 congressional districts.  In the 4 other districts, Romney, Paul, and Santorum all did well enough to pick up a delegate apiece.  This does not account for other rounding errors, possible domination of BPOU conventions by a single candidate, the exact distribution of BPOU delegates per precinct, or any Paul 'stealth' support.  It does reflect the new CD boundaries, issued on 2/21.

CD 7 has held its convention, electing the first delegates to Tampa from MN (apart from RNC members).  2 Santorum delegates and 1 Paul delegate were elected; I had projected Santorum to win all three.

Maine:  January 28-February 11, 2012

Overview
24 Delegates (1.05% of total)
Caucus / Convention
15 At-Large
6 by CD
3 RNC Members

Maine has a traditional Caucus/Convention setup, though with one fewer tier than most other states.  Municipal Caucuses, held throughout the week, elect delegates to the State Convention directly.  Each municipality is entitled to a number of delegates in proportion to its vote for Paul LePage in 2010.  A Presidential Preference Straw Poll is also held, with the results announced on February 11, but this is non-binding.  

Maine is announcing the results of the straw poll on February 11th---however, not all towns in Maine will have caucused by that point.  This is especially true of many locations in Hancock County, as well as in Rome in Kennebec County.  There may be additional stragglers who have been late to organize.  The last announced caucus is in Castine on March 3rd; all caucuses must take place by March 20th.

The State Convention (May 5 - 6) elects the 15 At-Large delegates, while the delegates at the State Convention from each CD separately caucus and choose their 3 delegates each.

RNC Members
Charlie Webster
Rick Bennett - Romney
Jan Staples - Romney

Preliminary Results (as of 2/11)
Romney - 11
Paul - 7
Santorum - 3

Discussion can be found here.  Romney did very well downstate, and I project him to get a majority at the CD1 caucus.  As usual, this does not account for rounding errors or "Stealth Paul" effects.
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« Reply #72 on: January 24, 2012, 01:24:41 pm »
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Here's an intriguing bit that might just matter. Florida's rules call for it to be statewide WTA only if they get sanctioned, so they'd revert to the statewide + CD rule if they are not.  If the winner gets 14 or fewer of the 27 CD's and the second place finisher gets the other 13 or more, then a reversion to being unsanctioned results in a net improvement in the delegate totals for the second place finisher.  Now unless the statewide winner has his vote concentrated in only a few CDs this likely won't matter much, but if every delegate counts, it could.

If Santorum drops out after a Newt win tonight, it looks like Florida will be a close battle.

Aren't they supposed to be proportional because they're an early state?
I think the case is that if they had gone when they were supposed to, they would be sanctioned if they didn't apportion some of the delegates by CD, but since they are already being sanctioned for going early, they don't face a second sanction for assigning them by statewide WTA.

Tinfoil hat speculation now...what if the RNC decides in the upcoming week to strip FL of all delegates?  I don't think such a thing is logistically possible, but as a last-ditch alternative to a Gingrich knockout punch there?   Of course, it would probably play worse than an embarassing loss anyway.
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« Reply #73 on: January 24, 2012, 03:55:22 pm »

Here's an intriguing bit that might just matter. Florida's rules call for it to be statewide WTA only if they get sanctioned, so they'd revert to the statewide + CD rule if they are not.  If the winner gets 14 or fewer of the 27 CD's and the second place finisher gets the other 13 or more, then a reversion to being unsanctioned results in a net improvement in the delegate totals for the second place finisher.  Now unless the statewide winner has his vote concentrated in only a few CDs this likely won't matter much, but if every delegate counts, it could.

If Santorum drops out after a Newt win tonight, it looks like Florida will be a close battle.

Aren't they supposed to be proportional because they're an early state?
I think the case is that if they had gone when they were supposed to, they would be sanctioned if they didn't apportion some of the delegates by CD, but since they are already being sanctioned for going early, they don't face a second sanction for assigning them by statewide WTA.

Tinfoil hat speculation now...what if the RNC decides in the upcoming week to strip FL of all delegates?  I don't think such a thing is logistically possible, but as a last-ditch alternative to a Gingrich knockout punch there?   Of course, it would probably play worse than an embarassing loss anyway.

There's no mechanism for that to happen.  I don't think the relevant committee meets again until the national convention, so they can't revisit the penalties until then.  And, in any case, the RNC itself approved Florida's WTA delegate allocation rule, figuring that they were already being punished for going early anyway:

http://www1.whdh.com/news/articles/politics/12005724241767/florida-primary-will-be-a-winner-take-all-contest/

Quote
The Republican National Committee has signed off on a plan to award 50 delegates to the GOP presidential contender who comes in first during the Jan. 31 primary.
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« Reply #74 on: January 24, 2012, 04:45:44 pm »
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I am confused by the whole committed vs. uncommitted delegates thing. Is this like Democratic super-delagates. The WSJ has Romney ahead when factoring in uncommitted.

Could we end up in a situation like Obama v Hillary when at one point it looked like Super Delegate party insiders could give the win to Hillary
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