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Erc
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« Reply #125 on: February 11, 2012, 06:59:44 pm »
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Very preliminary Maine delegate allocation:

Romney - 8
Paul - 8
Santorum - 5

Results by town (and thus by CD) are not yet available.

Due to the usual caucus winnowing, this is likely too favorable to Santorum.  Though note, unlike the other Iowa-style caucuses, there's only two stages, not 3...the town caucuses here elected delegates directly to the State Convention, to be held May 5-6.  That means, if there is reliable data on the delegates elected to the convention, we may be able to know quite a deal more about the final delegate allocation.  Unfortunately, such information is unlikely to be available from unbiased sources.
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #126 on: February 11, 2012, 07:36:23 pm »
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Town results available here

http://www.mainegop.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/me_gop_caucus_results.pdf

I Should total it by County and CD but I am not that ambitious.
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Erc
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« Reply #127 on: February 11, 2012, 08:46:14 pm »
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Thanks for the link!

Maine, Results (so far) by CD:
CDRomneyPaulSantorumGingrichOtherTotal
CD 113851139527162273240
42.7%35.2%16.3%5.0%0.8%
CD 2805857462187342345
34.3%36.5%19.7%8.0%1.4%
Total21901996989349615585
39.2%35.7%17.7%6.2%1.1%

Note that Romney did quite well downstate.  He received majorities in many towns---enough so that in fact he should have a majority at the CD1 district caucus.  This effect also diminishes Santorum's support statewide enough that he bleeds an At-Large delegate to Romney.

Romney doesn't quite get a majority statewide, but it's possible he may do so eventually on rounding errors.

This entire analysis ignores stealth Paul effects, as usual; if someone can somehow get me confirmed State Convention delegate numbers, I will change these figures accordingly.

This also ignores the apportionment of delegates to each municipality; while I do not know the exact numbers, it is in general in proportion to the vote for Paul LePage in 2010.

Resultant delegate allocation:
Romney - 11
Paul - 7
Santorum - 3
« Last Edit: February 11, 2012, 09:16:50 pm by Erc »Logged
Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #128 on: February 11, 2012, 08:48:07 pm »
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Thanks Erc for doing the math.


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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #129 on: February 15, 2012, 04:13:02 am »

Erc, can you explain the situation in Tennessee?  Santorum's on the ballot, but doesn't actually have a delegate slate?  Yet they can still award him delegates depending on how he does in the primary?
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« Reply #130 on: February 17, 2012, 02:15:23 pm »
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Tennessee is a mess in general.  As best as I can understand it, on the ballot there are three separate votes.  A sample ballot from Sevier County can be found here; I assume other counties' procedures are almost identical.

The first is a straight-up Presidential Preference vote, where you can vote for any of the 9 candidates who qualified for the ballot (the usual 7 pre-Iowa candidates, plus Roemer and Johnson, but not including Cain), or for Uncommitted or a write-in.

The second is a vote for the 14 At-Large delegates; the names of the delegate candidates are listed, along with the candidate to which they are committed (or stating they are Uncommitted).  You vote for 14 of the listed candidates.  Only Romney has a full slate (in fact he has 16!); Paul has 11, Gingrich and Perry have 10, and Huntsman has 2.  There are 4 Uncommitted Delegates.

The third is a vote for the 3 delegates particular to your CD, in exactly the same manner as the At-Large candidates.  There are a total of 27 of these statewide.  Only Romney has a full slate.  Paul has 22, Gingrich has 20, Perry has 17, and Huntsman has 1.  There are 7 Uncommitted Delegates.

How do these three separate votes weigh in to the actual selection of delegates?  The TN GOP Rules, when discussing the allocation of delegates, always makes reference to the 'vote received by a Presidential candidate'---i.e the straight-up simple preference vote.  The number of delegates a candidate is entitled to is based on that preference vote, and has no relation to the votes for the delegates in particular.

It would seem, though it is not explicitly stated, that the vote for delegates is mainly used to see which of a candidate's slate of delegates is chosen (in the event the full slate is not selected, or if the slate is larger than the number of delegates to be selected), and then to choose Alternates after the regular delegates have been chosen.

In particular, it is not a "beauty-contest" primary in the manner of Pennsylvania or Illinois; the vote you cast for the presidential candidate of your choice does matter, and it does affect the delegate allocation.

This, of course, leaves the question of how the delegates are actually selected if a candidate with blank/incomplete slates is actually entitled to delegates.  While this is not explicitly stated in the GOP rules, I'd say the usual procedures for delegate vacancies cover it:

Quote from: Bylaws of the Tennessee Republican Party
...If, more than thirty (30) days before the convention, a Delegate's position becomes vacant and is not filled by his Alternate or if an Alternate's position becomes vacant, the position shall be filled in accordance with Paragraph 3...

[Paragraph 3]

...If all of the positions for a candidate's Alternates are not filled from among such candidates for Delegate, the Presidential campaign shall then choose any bona fide Republican as such Alternate.

TL;DR:

The Santorum campaign will, after the primary, choose delegates for the seats to which it is entitled.  Its failure to have delegates listed on the ballot is embarrassing but in no way impedes its efforts to win a majority of delegates at the convention.  Tennessee is a regular primary (albeit with some weird allocation rules), not a "beauty contest."
« Last Edit: February 17, 2012, 02:17:07 pm by Erc »Logged
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« Reply #131 on: February 17, 2012, 02:48:19 pm »
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Washington: March 3

Overview
43 Delegates (1.88% of total)
Caucus/Convention
10 At-Large
30 by CD
3 RNC Members

Precinct Caucuses

Washington holds an Iowa-style primary; that is, the real point of the caucuses (as far as Tampa delegate allocation is concerned) is the election of precinct delegates to the County/Legislative District Caucuses.  The balloting for precinct delegates is in a runoff style; each person casts a number of votes equal to the number of delegate positions.  Any delegate candidate receiving a majority is elected; after the second ballot, the lowest-placing delegate candidate is eliminated.  This means that there will be a fair amount of recaucusing/tactical voting, even at this level, that will not be reflected in media reports.

A Presidential preference straw poll is also held at the caucuses; the final delegate allocation from Washington need not reflect the straw poll result at all, however.

County/LD Caucuses (March 17 - April 21)

Entitled to attend and vote are the delegates chosen at the precinct caucuses, plus a number of 'superdelegates' (precinct committee officers, plus all Republican officeholders residing in the jurisdiction).  These caucuses select delegates to the State Convention.

Rather uncharacteristically, the WSRP is very good about making public the exact allocation of State Convention delegates to each county (see Appendix D of this handy manual; the apportionment is based on the Republican vote in the most recent Presidential, Gubernatorial, and Attorney General races).

The election of State Convention delegates is done by a runoff system, similarly to those at the Precinct caucuses, but with a few changes to prevent a multitude of ballots.  After the first ballot, all delegate candidates placing below 10% are eliminated.  After the second ballot, all delegates placing below 20% are eliminated.  After the third ballot, the lowest candidates are eliminated until there are only twice the number of delegate candidates as unfilled slots.  The highest finishers on the fourth ballot are elected.

State Convention (May 31 - June 2)

There are 1500 normal delegates in attendance in total, plus 122 'superdelegates' (almost identical in style and function to the ones at Tampa, essentially 3 per county plus a few extras from King).  Obviously, the voting intentions of these 'superdelegates' will be impossible to feasibly determine and may prove to be a major source of uncertainty in a tightly contested race.

The convention as a whole chooses 10 delegates, and the State Convention delegates from each congressional district caucus separately to choose 3 delegates each (for a total of 30 by CD).  I do not know exactly how these are chosen, though it stands to reason that it may be a similar runoff system as in the preceding tiers.

The delegates chosen at the State Convention will be committed to their preferred candidate for the first ballot (unless they are explicitly selected as an 'uncommitted' delegate).

RNC Members

Kirby Wilbur
Jeff Kent
Fredi Simpson

As Washington does not select any delegates until the end of May, it is not penalized for going before Super Tuesday.

Preliminary Results (as of 3/4)

Romney - 34
Santorum - 6

Due to the extreme amount of tactical voting that will necessarily happen at the county/LD conventions due to the runoff system, it is hard to make a definitive delegate projection.  Unless the Paulistas make a concerted effort to derail Romney, however (or Gingrich/Santorum rally around Paul), it seems very likely that Romney wins a majority of delegates at the State Convention as a whole and in most CDs.  The above figure assumes Gingrich supporters break entirely for Santorum; this is too optimistic, but provides a reasonable lower bound for Romney.  Santorum picks up CD 5 (almost guaranteed if there's any net preference for Santorum) and CD 6.

Of course, this does not account for Stealth Paul; nor does it account for individual LD results, which may make Romney's dominance less convincing (and allow Paul to pick up a delegate or two somewhere).
« Last Edit: March 04, 2012, 01:20:08 am by Erc »Logged
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« Reply #132 on: February 17, 2012, 03:41:08 pm »
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Super Tuesday: Part I

It's Super Tuesday, the large primary and caucus extravaganza on March 6!  This is the official beginning of the non-IA/NH/SC/NV primary calendar, according to the RNC; there are no more penalties for any contests held on or after this date.  The delegate allocation must still be "proportional" for the next month of contests, however.

Remember that Alaska also votes on Super Tuesday.

Georgia

Overview
76 Delegates (3.32% of total)
Primary
34 At-Large, Proportional
42 by CD, Proportional

In each Congressional District (there are 14 in total), if a candidate receives a majority, they win all 3 delegates.  Otherwise, the top finisher receives 2 delegates and the second-place finisher 1 delegate.

At-Large, the 3 RNC Members are pledged to the statewide winner.  The remaining 31 are allocated proportionally among all candidates who meet a 20% threshold; rounding is done by largest remainder.

RNC Members

RNC Members are bound by the results of the primary.

Preliminary Results (as of 3/21)

Gingrich - 52
Romney - 21
Santorum - 3

This is the count from the GA GOP; the results from the state would imply a 54-19-3 split, instead, so this may be open to challenge unless the state results are wrong.

Idaho

Overview
32 Delegates (1.40% of total)
Caucus
32 At-Large, Proportional

Caucuses are held in each county, and delegates are assigned based on this vote; this is not an Iowa-style caucus by any measure.

What makes Idaho different from pretty much all (Republican) caucuses is the amount of official recaucusing that must take place; voting in each county continues through successive ballots until someone gets a majority or only two candidates remain (at which point a final ballot is taken).  Any candidates placing below 15%, plus the bottom remaining candidate are eliminated each round.

Each county is entitled to a fractional share of the delegates to Tampa (in a similar vein to Alaska, above).  If a candidate wins an outright majority on the first ballot (or any subsequent ballot with 3 or more candidates), they receive the entire share of that county's delegates.  In the event it comes to a two-candidate ballot, the county's share of delegates are split proportionally based on the final ballot.

After adding up the fractional shares of Tampa delegates entitled to each candidate from each county, if someone has a majority, they win all the delegates.  Otherwise, rounding is done to the nearest whole number.  In case of rounding errors, a delegate is added to (subtracted from) the top (bottom) finisher, as necessary.

RNC Members

RNC members are bound based on the results of the caucus vote.

Results (as of 3/7)

Romney won all 32 of Idaho's delegates.
« Last Edit: April 03, 2012, 11:14:45 am by Erc »Logged
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« Reply #133 on: February 17, 2012, 04:11:03 pm »
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Super Tuesday: Part II

Massachusetts

Overview
41 Delegates (1.79% of total)
Primary
38 At-Large, Proportional
3 RNC Members

38 delegates are allocated amongst candidates who meet a 15% threshold statewide, proportional to their share of the vote amongst all threshold-meeting candidates.  The Allocation Committee determines any rounding, as well as the exact CD breakdown (sadly, I do not get the voting strength of 10 men living here in Cambridge).

RNC Members
Bob Maginn - Romney
Ron Kaufman - Romney
Judy Dow

Kerry Healey (a Romney supporter) was recently elected as the National Committeewoman; however, it is unclear whether her term starts now or after the National Convention.

Results (as of 3/7)

Romney won all 38 delegates, as no other candidate broke 15%.

North Dakota
28 Delegates (1.22% of total)
Caucus/Convention
28 At-Large

Updated ND GOP Rules (different from The Green Papers!)

Caucuses are held in each Legislative District.  A secret ballot for Presidential Preference is taken (and reported to the media), and delegates to the State Convention are chosen.

The State Convention (March 30 - April 1) chooses the delegates to Tampa.  These delegates must caucus at some point either before or at Tampa, in order to discuss whether they want to distribute their votes in a manner proportional to the caucus vote.  The choice to do so is voluntary; for simplicity, I will assume for the purposes of my count that they choose to do so.

Selection of Delegates

The Committee on Permanent Organization (CPO) serves at the nominating committee for a slate of delegates to be voted on by the State Convention.  It has 10 members; two from each of North Dakota's 4 regions (selected by the appropriate Regional Chairman), plus the National Committeeman and Committeewoman (who also serve as superdelegates at the convention).

The CPO accepts applications for nominations before the convention.  Even without applying, any current Republican Senator/Governor/Congressman (i.e. Rep. Berg, Sen. Hoeven, and Gov. Dalrymple) are automatically placed on the slate.  Nominations may also be made from the floor of the convention, but only for those who applied to the CPO and did not make it onto the slate.  "In the event nominations are made from the floor, a nominee must receive a majority of the votes and finish in the top number needed for delegates to be elected."  (If anyone can decipher that, let me know).

RNC Members

If the delegation decides to voluntarily apportion itself proportionately to the caucus results, this includes the RNC members.  If not, they are listed below for reference.

Stan Stein
Curly Haugland
Sandy Boehler - Romney

Preliminary Results (as of 4/3)

According to the AP, these are the preferences of the 28 North Dakota delegates:

Romney - 13
Santorum - 8
Paul - 2
Gingrich - 1
Uncommitted - 4

A full list of the North Dakota delegation and their endorsements can be found here.  Also see Demconwatch.

If the delegation should assign itself proportionally:

Santorum - 11
Paul - 8
Romney - 7
Gingrich - 2

Ohio

Overview
66 Delegates (2.89% of total)
Primary
15 At-Large, Proportional
48 by CD, WTA
3 RNC Members

Ohio GOP Rules

There are two separate ballot questions, the first for Delegates-at-Large and the second for District Delegates.  In both cases, voters vote for their preferred candidate; the delegates themselves are not listed.

48 delegates are elected on the basis of the vote for "District Delegates;" the winner in a CD receives all 3 delegates.

15 delegates are elected on the basis of the vote for "Delegates-at-Large".  If someone wins a majority, they receive all 15 delegates; otherwise, delegates are awarded proportionally among all candidates meeting a 20% threshold (rounding to the nearest whole number, rounding error handling unknown).

The delegates for each candidate have been pre-approved by their respective campaign; however, they are not legally bound (only "morally bound") to vote for them at Tampa.  I will assume, unless any delegate states otherwise, that they are voting for the candidate whose campaign vetted and approved them.

Ballot Access
All candidates are on the ballot in Ohio; however, Santorum failed to qualify for access for the "District Delegates" question in CD's 6, 9, and 13, and will thus not have a shot at the 9 delegates from those CDs.  He will still be on the ballot for the "Delegates-at-Large" question in those CDs.  For a sample ballot from an affected area, see this sample ballot (pick e.g. Lakewood/01/A for a precinct where Santorum is not on the ballot for the "District Delegates" question).

RNC Members

Kevin DeWine
Robert Bennett
Jo Ann Davidson

Preliminary Results (as of 3/7)

Romney - 38
Santorum - 21
Unallocated - 4

Those 4 "Unallocated" delegates (1 in CD 3, 2 in CD 4, and 1 in CD 8 ) would be Santorum's, except he did not file complete delegate slates in those districts.  
« Last Edit: April 09, 2012, 01:23:42 pm by Erc »Logged
Erc
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« Reply #134 on: February 17, 2012, 05:22:32 pm »
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Super Tuesday: Part III

Oklahoma

Overview
43 Delegates (1.88% of total)
Primary
25 At-Large, Proportional
15 by CD, Proportional
3 RNC Members

OK GOP Rules

25 delegates are elected At-Large.  If a candidate receives a statewide majority, they win all 25 delegates.  Otherwise, delegates are apportioned proportionally among all candidates who get at least 15%, rounded to the nearest whole number (rounding error handling unknown).

15 delegates are elected by CD, 3 each.  If a candidate receives a majority (or only 1 places above 15%), they win all 3 delegates.  If only two candidates place above 15%, 2 delegates are awarded to the winner, and 1 to the second-place finisher.  Otherwise, 1 delegate is awarded to each of the top 3 finishers.

RNC Members

Matt Pinnell
James Dunn
Carolyn McLarty

Results (as of 3/7)

Santorum - 14
Romney - 13
Gingrich - 13

Tennessee

Overview
58 Delegates (2.54% of total)
Primary
28 At-Large, Proportional
27 by CD, Proportional
3 RNC Members

TN GOP Rules
YouTube Clarification from Chris DeVaney

28 delegates are selected At-Large.  If any candidate receives a two-thirds majority (or is the only candidate to break 20%) statewide, they are allocated all 28 delegates.  Otherwise, allocate proportionally among all candidates who receive at least 20% of the vote.  Round all fractions up; remove delegates from the lowest threshold-meeting candidate as necessary to allocate exactly 28 delegates.

27 delegates are selected by CD.  If any candidate receives a two-thirds majority (or is the only candidate to break 20%), they receive all 3 delegates.  Otherwise, the winner gets 2 delegates an the second place finisher gets 1 delegate.

Ballot Access
Many candidates (everyone but Romney) have incomplete slates of delegates (Santorum has no delegates at all).  This has no effect on delegate allocation, as candidates so affected can provide delegate names later.  See discussion here, and the YouTube video posted above.

RNC Members

Chris DeVaney
Peggy Lambert
John Ryder

Preliminary Results (as of 4/3)

Santorum - 29
Romney - 17
Gingrich - 9

Virginia

Overview
49 Delegates (2.14% of total)
Primary
13 At-Large, Proportional
33 by CD, WTA
3 RNC Members

13 delegates are selected At-Large.  If a candidate receives a majority statewide, they receive all 13 delegates.  Otherwise, delegates are allocated proportionally among candidates winning at least 15% of the vote.  Round up all fractions; remove delegates from the lowest threshold-meeting candidate as necessary to allocate exactly 13 delegates.

33 delegates are selected by CD.  The winner in each CD receives all 3 delegates.

Ballot Access
Only Mitt Romney and Ron Paul made the ballot in Virginia.

RNC Members
Pat Mullins
Morton Blackwell
Kathy Terry

Results (as of 3/7)

Romney - 43
Paul - 3

Vermont

Overview
17 Delegates (0.74% of total)
Primary
3 At-Large, WTA
14 At-Large, Proportional

VT GOP Rules

The statewide winner wins 3 delegates.  The remaining 14 (including the RNC members) are given to the majority winner, if there is one, or apportioned among candidates meeting a 20% threshold if not.  Rounding details are unspecified.

RNC Members

Pat McDonald
George Schiavone - Romney
Susie Hudson - Romney

The RNC members are bound to the statewide winner, so their preferences are moot.

Results (as of 3/7)

Romney - 9
Paul - 4
Santorum - 4
« Last Edit: April 03, 2012, 11:10:11 am by Erc »Logged
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« Reply #135 on: February 17, 2012, 05:38:51 pm »
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Quote
27 delegates are selected by CD.  If any candidate receives a two-thirds majority (or is the only candidate to break 20%), they receive all 3 delegates.  If there are only two candidates to break 20%, the winner gets 2 delegates and the second gets 1; otherwise the top 3 finishers get 1 each.

So basically if a district splits 60%-20%-20%, its delegates are split evenly. What a dumb system.
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« Reply #136 on: February 17, 2012, 05:41:50 pm »
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A question, are these contests using the old or new CD maps?
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« Reply #137 on: February 17, 2012, 05:52:51 pm »
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Idaho

If a candidate gets 50%+ of the statewide delegates they get all the national convention delegates.

http://idgop.org/party-rules-on-pres-caucus/

Quote
Section 5:  The sum of all the Counties’ shares for each candidate, rounding the sum to the nearest whole delegate, will be that candidate’s share of the Delegates and Alternates to the National Convention with the proviso that, if one candidate wins more than 50% of the Idaho allotment of delegates, that candidate shall receive the entire 100% of the allotment of Delegates and Alternates to the National Convention.

Since all but the top two candidates in each county are eliminated it would seem very likely that the statewide winner would get all the delegates.
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« Reply #138 on: February 17, 2012, 05:56:47 pm »
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A question, are these contests using the old or new CD maps?

Each state is entitled to 3 delegates per CD based on the 2010 census reapportionment.  Whether that means they actually use the new boundaries precisely or not is going to vary from state to state, depending on the progress of redistricting, whether it's a caucus or a primary, etc.

Some states are smart and provide for this uncertainty (e.g. Ohio has provisions to just use the old boundaries with 2 delegates a piece, with the rest WTA, if they lost representatives and redistricting wasn't finished yet---ultimately unnecessary, as they have finished redistricting), while others haven't.  In less prepared states, this may be up for a challenge at the credentials committee if it should make a difference.
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« Reply #139 on: February 17, 2012, 05:58:45 pm »
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Idaho

If a candidate gets 50%+ of the statewide delegates they get all the national convention delegates.

http://idgop.org/party-rules-on-pres-caucus/

Quote
Section 5:  The sum of all the Counties’ shares for each candidate, rounding the sum to the nearest whole delegate, will be that candidate’s share of the Delegates and Alternates to the National Convention with the proviso that, if one candidate wins more than 50% of the Idaho allotment of delegates, that candidate shall receive the entire 100% of the allotment of Delegates and Alternates to the National Convention.

Since all but the top two candidates in each county are eliminated it would seem very likely that the statewide winner would get all the delegates.

Good catch.  Whether that outcome is likely really depends on the manner of the tactical voting that occurs during the recaucusing, and whether it differs wildly from county to county.
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« Reply #140 on: February 17, 2012, 06:03:20 pm »
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A question, are these contests using the old or new CD maps?

Each state is entitled to 3 delegates per CD based on the 2010 census reapportionment.  Whether that means they actually use the new boundaries precisely or not is going to vary from state to state, depending on the progress of redistricting, whether it's a caucus or a primary, etc.

Some states are smart and provide for this uncertainty (e.g. Ohio has provisions to just use the old boundaries with 2 delegates a piece, with the rest WTA, if they lost representatives and redistricting wasn't finished yet---ultimately unnecessary, as they have finished redistricting), while others haven't.  In less prepared states, this may be up for a challenge at the credentials committee if it should make a difference.

New York is using the old districts, with 2 Delegates WTA per old CD and the rest at large.

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/

Republicans really do have a screwy system of picking a president, you get the same amount of delegates for winning Charlie Rangell's district as for winning the most republican district in the state.
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« Reply #141 on: February 17, 2012, 06:04:47 pm »
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BTW Erc, thanks for the research and posting the info.
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« Reply #142 on: February 17, 2012, 06:06:51 pm »
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A question, are these contests using the old or new CD maps?

Each state is entitled to 3 delegates per CD based on the 2010 census reapportionment.  Whether that means they actually use the new boundaries precisely or not is going to vary from state to state, depending on the progress of redistricting, whether it's a caucus or a primary, etc.

Some states are smart and provide for this uncertainty (e.g. Ohio has provisions to just use the old boundaries with 2 delegates a piece, with the rest WTA, if they lost representatives and redistricting wasn't finished yet---ultimately unnecessary, as they have finished redistricting), while others haven't.  In less prepared states, this may be up for a challenge at the credentials committee if it should make a difference.

New York is using the old districts, with 2 Delegates WTA per old CD and the rest at large.

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/

Republicans really do have a screwy system of picking a president, you get the same amount of delegates for winning Charlie Rangell's district as for winning the most republican district in the state.


As a Republican in a district in which we can't even get a House candidate on the ballot most of the time, I wish the same were true in Massachusetts Wink
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« Reply #143 on: February 17, 2012, 06:14:04 pm »
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A question, are these contests using the old or new CD maps?

Each state is entitled to 3 delegates per CD based on the 2010 census reapportionment.  Whether that means they actually use the new boundaries precisely or not is going to vary from state to state, depending on the progress of redistricting, whether it's a caucus or a primary, etc.

Some states are smart and provide for this uncertainty (e.g. Ohio has provisions to just use the old boundaries with 2 delegates a piece, with the rest WTA, if they lost representatives and redistricting wasn't finished yet---ultimately unnecessary, as they have finished redistricting), while others haven't.  In less prepared states, this may be up for a challenge at the credentials committee if it should make a difference.
If this thing goes to the convention, the GOP nomination will be bogged down for days in the credentials committee, won't it?
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« Reply #144 on: February 19, 2012, 12:31:10 am »
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I'm curious in a map of these four "regions" in North Dakota. I'm going to guess that it's the Fargo area, the rest of eastern North Dakota/Red River Valley, the Bismarck/Mandan metro and the areas in the southwest where essentially no one lives and then the rest of the state (essentially Minot, a Reservation and some oil drilling places)?
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« Reply #145 on: February 19, 2012, 01:21:33 am »
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I'm curious in a map of these four "regions" in North Dakota. I'm going to guess that it's the Fargo area, the rest of eastern North Dakota/Red River Valley, the Bismarck/Mandan metro and the areas in the southwest where essentially no one lives and then the rest of the state (essentially Minot, a Reservation and some oil drilling places)?

Basically spot on.  For the gorey details, you can check out the ND GOP rules (Article III, Section 4) and the 2000 census legislative district maps.

Williston has a legislative district all its own?  They really do not need that many people in the state legislature...
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« Reply #146 on: February 19, 2012, 04:10:14 am »
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27 delegates are selected by CD.  If any candidate receives a two-thirds majority (or is the only candidate to break 20%), they receive all 3 delegates.  If there are only two candidates to break 20%, the winner gets 2 delegates and the second gets 1; otherwise the top 3 finishers get 1 each.

So basically if a district splits 60%-20%-20%, its delegates are split evenly. What a dumb system.

Reminds me of the Chilean Senate.
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« Reply #147 on: February 19, 2012, 06:35:17 pm »
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Williston's an important town in North Dakota. Everyone there knows where it is and did even before the oil boom. Basically in ND if a town is big enough to have 24-hour services, it'll have its own legislative district. No worse than a lot of the "county legislatures" in New York, I live in a county with over a million people and a 7-member county commission, they have places with around 20 districts for not even half that people...

And while that delegate system can be quite silly (and the Chilean Senate is too), it's not as bad as giving the same amount of delegates to whoever wins Charlie Rangel's district as whoever wins the State Island district or in the upcoming Michigan primary where those Detroit districts are worth as many delegates as the Republican seats in the state. I've noticed because of that Romney can lose Michigan and still win a strong majority of delegates (though as Erc noted we don't really know how the delegates are going to be apportioned.)
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« Reply #148 on: February 19, 2012, 08:15:07 pm »
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Williston's an important town in North Dakota. Everyone there knows where it is and did even before the oil boom. Basically in ND if a town is big enough to have 24-hour services, it'll have its own legislative district. No worse than a lot of the "county legislatures" in New York, I live in a county with over a million people and a 7-member county commission, they have places with around 20 districts for not even half that people...

I know, Williston is very important!  It even has an international airport!  Wink

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And while that delegate system can be quite silly (and the Chilean Senate is too), it's not as bad as giving the same amount of delegates to whoever wins Charlie Rangel's district as whoever wins the State Island district or in the upcoming Michigan primary where those Detroit districts are worth as many delegates as the Republican seats in the state. I've noticed because of that Romney can lose Michigan and still win a strong majority of delegates (though as Erc noted we don't really know how the delegates are going to be apportioned.)

The Michigan GOP seems to have decided on a delegate allocation plan if the sanctions stay in place, according to Frontloading.  Basically, it's going to be as I expected--2 per CD, for a total of 28, plus 2 at-Large.  Whether those 2 at-Large are going to be "proportional" or WTA seems to still be up in the air.
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« Reply #149 on: February 22, 2012, 02:30:52 am »
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27 delegates are selected by CD.  If any candidate receives a two-thirds majority (or is the only candidate to break 20%), they receive all 3 delegates.  If there are only two candidates to break 20%, the winner gets 2 delegates and the second gets 1; otherwise the top 3 finishers get 1 each.

So basically if a district splits 60%-20%-20%, its delegates are split evenly. What a dumb system.

Actually, no...

If one candidate gets a two-thirds majority or is the only candidate to break 20%, that candidate gets all 3 delegates:

Examples: Santorum wins 3 delegates

Santorum  69%   40%
Romney     22%   19%
Gingrich     4%     19%
Paul           5%     19%
Other         0%       3%

If two or more candidates get over 20%, the winner gets two delegates, second place gets 1 and the rest get zero.

Examples: Santorum 2; Romney 1

Santorum  65%   40%
Romney     21%   30%
Gingrich     9%     25%
Paul           5%     5%

Otherwise, the top three finishers get 1 each:

Examples: Santorum 1; Romney 1; Gingrich 1

Santorum  19%   
Romney     18%   
Gingrich     18%     
Paul           16%     
Perry          15%     
Bachman    14%   

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