The Delegate Fight: 2012

[Erc]

27 delegates are selected by CD.  If any candidate receives a two-thirds majority (or is the only candidate to break 20%), they receive all 3 delegates.  If there are only two candidates to break 20%, the winner gets 2 delegates and the second gets 1; otherwise the top 3 finishers get 1 each.

So basically if a district splits 60%-20%-20%, its delegates are split evenly. What a dumb system.

Actually, no...

You are absolutely right, I misread the rules.  CD delegates in TN are only split 3 ways if no one meets the 20% threshold (mathematically impossible now).

Original post (for both TN and OK) has been changed accordingly.

[Erc]

Minnesota has released its new Congressional District maps, and it does indeed appear that the MN GOP will be using the new maps throughout their process (precinct delegates will be informed as to which BPOU convention they will be attending).

When practicable, I will redo the precinct-level analysis given the new lines.  Don't hold your breath though.

[Erc]

New Hampshire Update

The three candidates winning delegates in New Hampshire (Romney, Paul, and Huntsman) have chosen which of their delegate candidates will be going to Tampa.

There is one complication, however; these were chosen under the assumption that the sanctions will be lifted.  That is, Romney chose 12 delegates (and alternates), Paul 5, and Huntsman 3, rather than the 7, 3, and 2, respectively, that they would be entitled to under sanctions.  We do not know which of these will be seated at Tampa should the sanctions be enforced (they are all listed alphabeticaly).

Regardless, we do now know the names of the 3 Huntsman delegates (2 of which will go to Tampa if sanctions are enforced).  They are:

Paul J. Collins, Jr.
Renee Plummer
Sarah Stewart

Of course, these will presumably vote for Romney, but we cannot be sure, so they stay Uncommitted until we hear otherwise.  Note that Sarah Stewart was formerly with the Pawlenty campaign before joining the Huntsman camp.

[Erc]

Minnesota has released its new Congressional District maps, and it does indeed appear that the MN GOP will be using the new maps throughout their process (precinct delegates will be informed as to which BPOU convention they will be attending).

When practicable, I will redo the precinct-level analysis given the new lines.  Don't hold your breath though.

Not all that much change with the new lines (I won't bother posting the full numbers unless there's a demand).

Romney improves his numbers enough in CDs 2 and 5 that he is (barely) able to eke out two additional delegates, the former at the expense of Santorum, the latter at the expense of Paul.  He so marginally has a claim on these delegates that I assume that the BPOU round of winnowing will eliminate him from contention.  I am not so crazy as to do a full BPOU analysis on the new lines, so we'll just have to stick with these numbers.

Resulting delegate count:

Santorum - 29
Paul - 4
Romney - 4

[Vroke]

I just want to thank you for this thread! It's nice to have everything in one thread

[Erc]

March 10

In addition to the events listed below, Iowa also holds its County Conventions on March 10, which elect delegates to the State (and District) Conventions.  If there's any systematic reporting of these results (doubtful, but we can hope), this may give us our first indications of the current state of the race in Iowa---what's happened to Perry's supporters, how much of a "stealth Paul" effect is there, etc.

Kansas

Overview
40 Delegates (1.75% of total)
Caucus
12 by CD, WTA
28 At-Large, Proportional (20%)

KS Caucus Rules

Kansas' caucus, like Nevada but unlike Iowa, actually binds its delegates on the results of the caucuses.  There are later rounds of conventions that choose the delegates themselves, but the delegates themselves are bound based on the March 10 vote.

12 delegates are allocated by CD; in each of Kansas' 4 Congressional Districts, the winner receives 3 delegates.  Kansas does not appear to have finished its redistricting yet, which could complicate matters.  Kansas did not gain or lose CDs with the census, so using the old borders is always a possibility.

25 delegates are allocated proportionally statewide, with a 20% threshold.  If only one candidate meets the threshold, there is no threshold.  Starting with the winner, each candidate receives a share of the 25 delegates commensurate with their share of the vote amongst threshold-reaching candidates, fractions rounded up.  Repeat for the next-highest placing candidate, and so forth, until all 25 delegates are assigned.

The 3 RNC members are pledged to the statewide winner.

RNC Members

The RNC members are pledged based on the statewide results, and thus do not act like superdelegates.

Preliminary Results (as of 3/10)

Santorum - 33
Romney - 7

Guam

Overview
9 Delegates (0.39% of total)
Convention
6 At-Large
3 RNC Members

A single territorial caucus is held.  Guam's six delegates are chosen in such a manner as to 'best reflect the presidential preference of the convention participants."

The convention convenes at 9 AM local time (that is, 6 PM Friday EST), so we may even get results before we go to bed Friday.

RNC members

Jesus "Jess" Torres - Romney
Peter Ada - Romney
Donna Jones - Romney

Demconwatch believes new RNC members will be elected at the March 10 convention.  However, the national RNC rules do state that RNC members terms last from the end of a national convention to the next, so I will assume that these three will be at Tampa unless the national GOP says otherwise.

Results (as of 3/10)

Romney won all 6 delegates, and the RNC members pledged themselves to him as well.

Northern Marianas

Overview
9 Delegates (0.39% of total)
Convention
6 At-Large
3 RNC Members

A vote is held to elect 6 delegates to the National Convention.

RNC Members

Gov. Benigno Fitial - Romney
Bo Palacios - Romney
Mary Lou S Ada - Romney (Demconwatch and the Saipan Tribune list Viola Alepuyo instead, but I will trust the national GOP over local news here)

Preliminary Results (as of 3/10)

With Romney winning 87% of the vote here, I think it's safe to assume that the 6 delegates elected were Romney supporters.  Officially, the delegates elected are unbound.

Virgin Islands

Overview
9 Delegates (0.39% of total)
Caucus
6 At-Large
3 RNC Members

USVI Caucus Rules
Sample Ballot (thanks Minnesota Mike!)

Caucuses are held on St. Croix, St. Thomas, and St. John, between noon and 6 pm local time (11 AM and 5 PM EST).  Participants vote for the delegates directly; each participant may vote for 6 delegate candidates, and the top 6 vote-getters will go to Tampa.  Delegate candidates must have filed by February 10 (I cannot find a list of delegates so filed, though), and their presidential preference is listed next to them on the ballot.  Delegates so elected will be bound to their candidate on the first ballot.

This system makes it quite likely that a single candidate will win all 6 delegates.

RNC Members

Herbert Schoenbohm - Romney
Holland L Redfield, II - Romney
Lilliana Belardo De O'Neal - Romney

Results (as of 3/11)

Romney - 3
Uncommitted - 2
Paul - 1

The two Uncommitted delegates are Warren Bruce Cole, who has since declared for Romney, and Gwendolyn Brady, who is still uncommitted.

[Erc]

Wyoming:  February 9 - February 29

Overview
29 Delegates (1.27% of total)
Caucus/Convention
12 by County
14 At-Large
3 RNC Members

WY GOP Bylaws

Precinct Caucuses

The Wyoming Precinct Caucuses were held between February 9 and February 29, on different dates in different parts of the state.  A straw poll was held, and delegates to the County Conventions were also elected.  Each precinct's representation at its County Convention is proportional to the share of the vote for Cynthia Lummis (WY-AL) in 2010, though each precinct is entitled to a minimum of 2 delegates.

County Conventions

The County Conventions were held March 6-10.  In addition to the delegates chosen at the Precinct Caucuses, the members of the County Central Committee were also automatically delegates.

Of Wyoming's 23 counties, 11 selected a delegate to Tampa, 11 selected a corresponding alternate to Tampa, and Laramie County selected one of each.  The counties that selected delegates:

Natrona, Carbon, Lincoln, Sublette Platte, Park, Washakie, Big Horn, Johnson, Weston, Niobrara, Platte, and of course Laramie.

These delegates are officially unbound, but are required to inform the county convention ahead of the vote which candidate they would vote for at Tampa.

The County Conventions also elect delegates to the State Convention.  Each county is entitled to a number of delegates in proportion to their vote for Cynthia Lummis (WY-AL) in 2010.  The exact number of delegates per county can be found here.

Slates of nominations (for delegates to Tampa or for delegates to the State Convention) are drawn up by a Nominating Committee, whose members are chosen by the County Chairman.  However, additional nominations may be submitted from the floor.

State Convention

The State Convention, held April 12-14 in Cheyenne, chooses the remaining 14 delegates.  A Nominating Committee, consisting of two delegates from each county, chooses a slate of 14 delegates (and alternates).  This slate is presented to the convention as a whole.  Additional delegate nominees may be presented from the floor.  After a secret ballot, "the Delegates-at-large shall be elected by the equivalent number of nominees receiving the most votes."

(If anyone can figure out exactly what that last line means, I'd be much obliged)

These delegates are officially unbound, but must inform the convention which candidate they intend to vote for at Tampa.

RNC Members

Tammy Hooper
Greg Schaefer - Romney
Jan Larimer

Preliminary Results (as of 3/11)

County Conventions:

Romney - 8
Santorum - 2
Paul - 1
Uncommitted - 1

Projected State Convention:

Romney - 14

Based on the results of the County Conventions, it appears that Romney will have a majority at the State Convention and can elect an entirely-Romney slate.  This is based off of the votes for delegates and alternates at each of the County Conventions; if there was a significant difference between that vote and the vote for slates of delegates to the State Convention, Romney may not attain that majority.

[Erc]

Some clarification of the Tennessee GOP process from the GOP Chairman in the state, Chris Devaney, is provided in this YouTube video.

In particular, it is made patently clear that Santorum is still very much eligible for delegates despite not having any delegate candidates on the ballot.

It also seems that the 14 delegates appointed by the Executive committee are apportioned based on the primary results as well (basically, they get to pick who goes but the campaign signs off).

[Erc]

"Proportionality" or Gingrich's Hope

As the race increasingly looks like a two-man contest between Romney and Santorum, how much hope is there for third (or fourth) place candidates to pick up delegates and play spoiler?

Many of the same arguments could apply to Paul, but he has a chance of snatching victory from defeat in Iowa-style caucuses, can occasionally take second place in caucus states (e.g. MN/ME), and is going to stay in the race regardless.

The following are states that have some possibility of awarding proportional delegates to Gingrich.  "XX% proportional" means XX% of the delegates (not including superdelegates) are awarded proportionally.  Some states cease being proportional if a candidate wins a majority (or supermajority) of the vote.

-- Up to Super Tuesday --

Washington - Iowa-style caucus.
Alaska - 100% proportional, no cutoff.
Georgia - Gingrich should do well here, regardless.
Massachusetts - 100% proportional, 15% cutoff
North Dakota - Iowa-style caucus OR 100% proportional, no cutoff (delegates' choice)
Ohio - 24% proportional, 20% cutoff
Oklahoma - 63% proportional, 15% cutoff
Tennessee - 51% proportional, 20% cutoff
Vermont - 79% proportional, 20% cutoff

-- March, After Super Tuesday --

Kansas - 63% proportional, 20% cutoff
Alabama - 55% proportional, 20% cutoff
Hawaii - 65% proportional, no cutoff
Mississippi - 100% proportional by jurisdiction, 15% cutoff
Missouri - Iowa-style caucus
Puerto Rico - 100% proportional, no cutoff
Louisiana - 47% proportional, 25% cutoff.  42% Iowa-style caucus.

-- April --

Connecticut - 40% proportional, 20% cutoff
Rhode Island - 100% proportional, 15% cutoff
New York - 37% proportional, 20% cutoff

-- May --

North Carolina - 100% proportional, no cutoff
Oregon - 100% proportional, no cutoff
Arkansas - 64% proportional, 15% cutoff
Kentucky - 57% proportional, 15% cutoff
Texas - 100% proportional, no cutoff.

-- June --

New Mexico - 100% proportional, 15% cutoff
South Dakota - 100% proportional, 20% cutoff

Gingrich, assuming he remains in 3rd or worse throughout, has no chance of picking up delegates in Arizona, Michigan, Idaho, Virginia, USVI, Illinois, DC, Maryland, Wisconsin, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Indiana, California, New Jersey, and Utah.  Not listed here are states/territories that just hold conventions (Wyoming, Montana, Guam, Northern Marianas, American Samoa).  West Virginia's process is still completely unknown.


Obviously, Gingrich is sticking it out until Super Tuesday.  Afterwards, the road forwards is pretty tough for him, due to the cutoffs.  Meeting 15% or 20% cutoffs may be possible in Alabama and Mississippi, and he may snag a couple delegates from Puerto Rico if no one wins a majority there...but other than that it's a long drought until May 8, when North Carolina gives him his next shot at delegates.

All in all, after Super Tuesday (or after AL/MS vote on March 13), his staying in the race is far more likely to give Romney a leg up in WTA states than it is to increase the chance of a brokered convention with him as a kingmaker.  Of course, he's probably hoping for yet another shot at becoming the Anti-Romney, but this becomes extremely remote (and only helps Romney's chances) after Super Tuesday.

[Esquire 22]

Thanks Erc for these great posts.  I'm new to the forum so maybe this has already been discussed, but what happens to Gingrich's (or Paul's) delegates if he drops out/ suspends his campaign prior to Tampa?  Are his delegates bound to vote for him on the first ballot or do they get released?

If they are released, maybe a situation emerges where neither Romney or Santorum wins 1144 through primary victories, but still secures a first ballot nomination by "winning" unbound Gingrich/ Paul delegates through old fashioned wheeling and dealing.   There may be a major incentive for this to happen so that the party can avoid the potential embarrassment of a brokered convention.

[Erc]

There's a lot of room for some fine subtleties.  A candidate can 'suspend' their campaign---this is is a signal to everyone that they're done, but they can keep fundraising to pay for campaign debts, and presumably their delegates still remain bound to them.  An actual 'withdrawal' from the race would generally unbind delegates, or a candidate who has suspended their campaign can also explicitly 'release' their delegates from being bound.

Often, if the candidate is not even placed into nomination, the delegates are released.  In order to be officially presented for nomination, the candidate must demonstrate the support of a plurality of at least 5 state delegations.

These rules tend to vary considerably from state to state, and it is unclear how such rules would be enforced.  If it should look that in a couple of months we are heading towards a deadlocked convention, I'll look at them in more detail.

[Erc]

Something to look out for in a few months:

Since there is no threshold at all in Texas, there's a possibility (if the rounding goes well) that a candidate with as few as 0.34% of the overall vote in Texas can win a delegate.

Will Perry (or Cain, or Roemer for that matter) at long last win a delegate in this race?

EDIT:  This of course goes out the window entirely if the TX GOP ditches the primary, as looks increasingly likely.

[Mr. Morden]

Erc, I'm wondering if you've read this latest blog post by Nate Silver:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/02/25/the-g-o-p-s-fuzzy-delegate-math/

in which he talks about the large number of delegates to the RNC who are not exactly technically bound to any particular candidate.  In 2008, there was a media narrative that the Democrats faced a huge problem in that unelected Super Delegates might end up deciding the nomination, but that this problem couldn't have existed on the GOP side, since they have so few such "Super Delegates".

But reading this post, I'm wondering if this narrative should actually be turned on its head.  Does the GOP, in fact, have a significant share of delegates who are not exactly "bound" to any particular candidate, and thus there's a good chance that the primary season ends with Romney and Santorum furiously lobbying delegates to publicly back them, and give them a majority, so as to spare the party a convention fight?

[Erc]

Erc, I'm wondering if you've read this latest blog post by Nate Silver:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/02/25/the-g-o-p-s-fuzzy-delegate-math/

in which he talks about the large number of delegates to the RNC who are not exactly technically bound to any particular candidate.  In 2008, there was a media narrative that the Democrats faced a huge problem in that unelected Super Delegates might end up deciding the nomination, but that this problem couldn't have existed on the GOP side, since they have so few such "Super Delegates".

But reading this post, I'm wondering if this narrative should actually be turned on its head.  Does the GOP, in fact, have a significant share of delegates who are not exactly "bound" to any particular candidate, and thus there's a good chance that the primary season ends with Romney and Santorum furiously lobbying delegates to publicly back them, and give them a majority, so as to spare the party a convention fight?

Great post by Nate Silver, as this is exactly the sort of thing people should be paying attention to...but I think the risk of those bound/unbound technicalities is a bit less than that first chart might make it out to be.

A lot of these delegates are chosen at State Conventions, which mostly come very late in the cycle (I think the earliest is North Dakota's, at the very end of March).  At this point, it will be more clear how the race has shaped up, and if it really is a fight to the finish, supporters of each candidate will really be trying to elect loyal delegates who can be counted on to support their candidate in Tampa.  But maybe compromise candidates will be chosen if conventions have odd rules and end up getting extremely deadlocked (most likely in Iowa---though ND does this automatically in some sense, giving additional party leaders an almost-guaranteed ticket to Tampa)

A lot of the fighting for delegates will be done in odd venues---State Conventions, certain state executive committees, etc.---but I imagine the results of each will be rather clear after the event.  There will be a large number of delegates not chosen by strictly democratic means, but their voting intentions at Tampa will presumably not be in doubt.

Similarly, I imagine not-strictly-bound delegates chosen in primaries (OH/IL, for example) will remain loyal; Romney's organization was presumably good enough to pick reliable candidates, and anyone who signed on to be a delegate with Santorum pre-Iowa has got to be a True Believer.  There's always the possibility of a Paulista Fifth Column, but I'm skeptical.

I would very much be worried about Pennsylvania, which is going to be a complete mess.  It comes after another 3-week break in the season, though, which may give candidates enough time to get their act together.

As Nate Silver says, this probably matters most when one candidate is relatively close but not close enough to clinch on the regular bevy of endorsements alone---if one candidate is close enough that a few votes here and there might get him through on the first ballot---or enough switching beforehand makes sure that the convention is a coronation rather than a floor fight.

In the end, though, the media narrative matters.  The primary season effectively ends on June 3 (we all know who's winning Utah's delegates), and a floor fight seems possible, and the media start gunning for it over the following three months, whoever is in second place is probably going to fight tooth and nail for it---and all of these technicalities may get a lot of media attention.

[Mr. Morden]

Thanks Erc.  I think I basically agree with you.  However, I'm thinking that if, say, Romney wins a plurality of both the "popular vote" and the "pledged delegates", yet even after the bulk of the truly uncommitted delegates have swung his direction in the interests of party unity, he's still about two dozen delegates short of a majority.........then I'd guess that various figures in the party leadership would do whatever they could to strongarm some of those Santorum delegates whose voting intentions were clearly for Santorum at the time they were chosen, yet are not officially bound to him.

Basically, I'm thinking that enough of the party seems to regard a contested convention as a disaster, that these rules that provide for so many delegates who are not officially bound to any candidate and who were not "strictly chosen by democratic means", provide a possible escape hatch for the party to avoid a contested convention.

Of course, that only works in a scenario where Romney has a decent lead on Santorum, but still falls a bit short of a majority.  If the two of them are much closer, and each have 45% or less of the total delegates in hand, then it gets much messier.  But I think the odds of that happening are slim.  A Mondale 1984 scenario seems more likely.

[Esquire 22]

The whole process is a nightmare.  Do all of the nuances get worked out by the Rules Committee?  If things are really tight and there are all of these crazy contingencies and state law and state party requirements wouldn't it take a tremdous amount of time for the Committee to hear every case or challenge?  Can the Convention go on for longer than four days? 

Also, as an aside (and this is obviously an academic question) what would happen with a "faithless delegate"?  Who actually monitors whether or not a random delegate from Nebraska is bound to vote for Romney on the first and second ballot?  Is there like a post-balloting challenge procedure or something?  If the authority that binds the delegate to his or her convention vote is state law does the Republican party actually rely on a Nebraska statute to decide whether or not Joe Schmo can or cannot vote for the person they want to? 

[Minnesota Mike]

Oklahoma

Erc,

I think Oklahoma's system for awarding Delegates at the congressional level is a little different than what you posted

http://gallery.mailchimp.com/512354e730a88fee4fcc330f7/files/ORP_Rules___Amended_August_27__2011.pdf

(2) All Delegates from each congressional district shall be awarded to a presidential candidate who receives a majority (more than 50%) of the votes in the Republican Presidential Preference Primary election in that district. If no presidential candidate receives a majority of the votes in a congressional district, then the award shall be as follows:
a. If three or more presidential candidates receive 15 percent or more of such total vote in the district, the top three finishers in the District shall each be awarded one Delegate from that district.
b. If only two presidential candidates receive 15 percent or more of such total vote in the district, the presidential candidate who receives the most votes in that congressional district shall receive two (2) Delegates and the presidential candidate who receives the second most votes in that congressional district shall receive one (1) Delegate; and,
c. If only one presidential candidate receives 15 percent or more of such total vote in the district, such presidential candidate shall be awarded all of the Delegates from that district

So if I understand the rules correctly if it's Santorum 49%, Romney 15%, Gingrich 15% then they each get 1 delegate. But if it's Santorum 50%, Romney 30%, Gingrich 20% Santorum would get all 3 Delegates. Odd system.

[Erc]

Oklahoma

...

You are absolutely right.  In fact, I believe that's what I originally had, but I changed it at the same time I corrected the opposite mistake I'd made in TN's rules.

Yet another reminder that the Green Papers are not infallible.

[Erc]

March 13

Alabama

Overview
50 Delegates (2.19% of total)
Primary
26 At-Large (Proportional, 20%)
21 by CD (Proportional, 20%)
3 RNC Members

AL 2012 Presidential Preference Primary Resolution

21 delegates are assigned by CD, 3 in each of Alabama's 7 Congressional Districts.  If a candidate wins a majority of the vote (or is the only candidate above 20%), they win all 3 delegates.  Otherwise, the winner receives 2 delegates and the second-place finisher receives 1 delegates.

26 delegates are assigned At-Large.  If a candidate wins a majority of the vote (or is the only candidate above 20%), they win all 26 delegates.  Otherwise, the delegates are distributed among all candidates above 20%, in proportion to their share of the vote among all threshold-meeting candidates.  Fractions are rounded to the nearest whole number.  If too many or too few delegates are assigned, the last-place finisher loses delegates or the first-place finisher gains delegates, respectively.

RNC Members

Bill Armistead
Paul Reynolds
Bettye Fine Collins - Santorum

Results (as of 4/6)

Santorum - 22
Gingrich - 13
Romney - 12

Results have been certified.

American Samoa

Overview
9 Delegates (0.39% of total)
Convention
6 At-Large
3 RNC Members

A Territorial Convention meets and chooses 6 At-Large delegates.  "The delegates from American Samoa are chosen in such a way so that they best reflect the presidential preference of the Caucus/Convention participants."

RNC Members

Victor Tofaeono - Romney
Te'o J. Fuavai - Romney
Amata C. Radewagen - Romney

Results (as of 3/14)

Romney won all delegates.

Hawaii

Overview
20 Delegates (0.87% of total)
Caucus
11 At-Large (Proportional)
6 by CD (Proportional)
3 RNC Members

Based on the caucus vote, 11 At-Large delegates and 6 CD delegates (3 for each CD) are assigned.  In each jurisdiction, starting with the first-place finisher, delegates are assigned in proportion to the candidate's share of the total vote in that jurisdiction, rounding all fractions up.  Repeat for the next-place finishers until all delegates are assigned.

RNC Members

David Chang
Ted Liu
Miriam Hellreich

Results (as of 3/14)

Romney - 9
Santorum - 5
Paul - 3

Mississippi

Overview
40 Delegates (1.75% of total)
Primary
25 At-Large (Proportional, 15%)
12 by CD (Proportional, 15%)
3 RNC Members

12 delegates are assigned by CD, 3 in each of Mississippi's 4 CDs.  25 delegates are assigned based on the statewide vote.  In each jurisdiction, if a candidate receives a majority of the vote, they receive all delegates.  Otherwise, delegates are assigned amongst all candidates meeting a 15% threshold, in proportion to each candidate's share of votes among threshold-meeting candidates.  Rounding is done to the nearest whole number.  If too many or too few delegates are assigned, the last-place finisher loses delegates or the first-place finisher gains delegates, respectively.

RNC Members

Joe Nosef
Henry Barbour - Romney
Jeanne Luckey

Note that Henry Barbour was in the Perry camp until he dropped out.

Results (as of 3/14)

Santorum - 13
Gingrich - 12
Romney - 12

[Erc]

With Arizona called for Romney, he wins the state's 29 delegates.

[Erc]

Going to wait until the morning before seriously tackling Michigan.  A first glance would seem to suggest Romney has at least 13 delegates in the bag, and Santorum has at least 7.  I expect a majority of the remaining districts will break towards Santorum.

[J. J.]

Going to wait until the morning before seriously tackling Michigan.  A first glance would seem to suggest Romney has at least 13 delegates in the bag, and Santorum has at least 7.  I expect a majority of the remaining districts will break towards Santorum.

RCP is giving Romney 14, Santorum 12.  It looks like an even split of CD's.

[Erc]

Michigan by-CD results.  Again, not all precincts are reporting so there may be resulting errors.

CD 1: Very Likely Santorum.  Santorum has a 687-vote lead in the whole counties that comprise CD 1.  Mason County is split between CD 1 and CD 2.  Mason County is not reporting more detailed results, but Santorum won the county as a whole, so it is very unlikely Romney will make up the difference there.

CD 2: Santorum.  Santorum wins by at least 8500 votes.

CD 3: Santorum.  Santorum wins by at least 1100 votes.

CD 4: Santorum.  Santorum wins by at least 2000 votes.

CD 5: Too Close To Call.  Romney has around a 900 vote lead outside of Tuscola County (with some uncertainty, mainly due to incomplete reporting of absentee votes by precinct in Saginaw Twp). Tuscola County is not reporting by precinct, and Santorum leads there, but it seems unlikely that Santorum will make up the difference there.  However, the AP shows Santorum with a 200-vote lead (thanks cinyc!), so I don't know what to make of it.

CD 6: Santorum.  Santorum wins by at least 4000 votes.

CD 7: Santorum.  Santorum wins by around 700 votes.

CD 8: Romney.

CD 9: Romney.

CD 10: Likely Romney.  Division of Sterling Heights City and Tuscola County is unclear, but it seems Romney won the district by at least 2000 votes.

CD 11: Romney.

CD 12: Romney.

CD 13: Likely Santorum. (apparently, according to the AP)

CD 14: Romney.

I didn't bother digging through Wayne County, but I find it very unlikely Santorum wins a district there.

That's a total of 7 CDs for Romney, and 7 for Santorum.  This results in a 15-15 split of delegates in favor of Romney.

[cinyc]

Macomb precinct results are here.

MI-10 went to Romney.   MI-13 went to Santorum.  MI-05 is close, but Santorum leads by 269 votes with 7 precincts out per the AP.

If Santorum's MI-05 lead holds,  it should be 8-6 Santorum, which means he won the most delegates 16-14.  If not, it's a tie and Romney wins the delegate tally 16-14.

[Erc]

Macomb precinct results are here.

MI-10 went to Romney.   MI-13 went to Santorum.  MI-05 is close, but Santorum leads by 269 votes with 7 precincts out per the AP.

If Santorum's MI-05 lead holds,  it should be 8-6 Santorum, which means he won the most delegates 16-14.  If not, it's a tie and Romney wins the delegate tally 16-14.

Yeah, I found the Macomb county results, and Romney does indeed win CD 10.

I do not feel like digging through Wayne County, so I will trust the AP there.  Number of votes in CD 13 is so small compared to the other CDs, it's pretty hilarious.

I am skeptical of the AP's CD 5 results, personally.  CD 5 breakdown:

Arenac, Bay, Genesse, and Iosco counties are entirely within CD 5.  In these counties:

Romney - 18632, Santorum - 18126 (506 vote margin for Romney).

Saginaw County is split with CD 4.  CD 5 contains the entirety of Blumfield Township, Bridgeport Township, Buena Vista Township, Carrollton Township, City of Saginaw, Spaulding Township, City of Zilwaukee, and Zilwaukee Township.  In these municipalities:

Romney - 1274, Santorum - 1622 (348 vote margin for Santorum).

Saginaw Township is split with CD 4.  Due to splitting of precincts, it's impossible to say the exact vote split.  However, the election-day vote in the CD 5 portion appears to be approximately:

Romney - 1561, Santorum - 1132 (429 vote margin for Romney, approximate).

The Absentee Vote is not reported by precinct (and many municipalities in Saginaw County aren't reporting AV at all, making me suspect that some may be from outside Saginaw Twp).  Assuming the Saginaw Twp AV vote breaks down by the same proportion by CDs as the election-day vote, and the %Romney isn't different in each CD (in actuality, Santorum did better in the CD-4 portion):

Romney - 403, Santorum - 119 (284 vote margin for Romney, approximately).

This is an approximate 871-vote margin for Romney outside of Tuscola County.  The most uncertainty is in the absentee vote totals in Saginaw Twp, but I'd imagine this margin is still accurate to within 150 votes either way.

In Tuscola County as a whole, the split was:

Romney - 2081, Santorum - 3089 (1008 vote margin for Santorum)

Slightly more of Tuscola County is in CD 10 than CD 5.  It thus seems quite unlikely, barring weird voting patterns, that Santorum would make up the difference in Tuscola County.

For main-page purposes, I'm going to move CD 5 back to Uncommitted, for now (Romney and Santorum trade CD 10 and CD 13).  The remaining delegates are split 15-13 for Santorum.