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Erc
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« Reply #225 on: March 11, 2012, 08:31:28 am »
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Based on the results from the Wyoming County Conventions, I now project that Romney will have a majority of the support at the Wyoming State Convention, and will be able to elect a full slate of 14 At-Large delegates.
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« Reply #226 on: March 12, 2012, 12:53:37 pm »
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When exactly is Romney's relative delegate share most likely to be the smallest?
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« Reply #227 on: March 12, 2012, 05:43:37 pm »
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When exactly is Romney's relative delegate share most likely to be the smallest?

Between South Carolina and Florida, of course. Wink

In all seriousness, if this continues as a competitive race to the finish...likely after Texas on May 29.
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« Reply #228 on: March 12, 2012, 06:26:02 pm »
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I need help looking for a Congressional District breakdown of the results from Ohio. Especially districts 6, 9 and 13.
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« Reply #229 on: March 12, 2012, 06:32:12 pm »
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I need help looking for a Congressional District breakdown of the results from Ohio. Especially districts 6, 9 and 13.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ohio_Congressional_Districts
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« Reply #230 on: March 12, 2012, 09:56:04 pm »
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I need help looking for a Congressional District breakdown of the results from Ohio. Especially districts 6, 9 and 13.

Are the new CDs in effect in OH yet? The reason I ask is because the link Matthew posted appears to show a map of the old CDs. Here's something that might help you in your journey:

http://gardow.com/davebradlee/redistricting/davesredistricting2.0.aspx

Select OH as your state. At the top of the page (once it's loaded), you can check the 'Old CDs' box, which will display the old congressional districts. You'll be able to see each precinct and can then compile a list of precincts (in the counties that are split) and then reference that data to SOS/RPO precinct-level results, which I've yet to find after briefly looking on OHSOS' website.
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« Reply #231 on: March 12, 2012, 10:30:32 pm »
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The Ohio primary was counted based on the NEW congressional districts rather than the old ones.

Here's the map.
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« Reply #232 on: March 12, 2012, 11:43:54 pm »
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based on that map, a rough guess
Santorum 5, 6, 15, 2, 4, 12, 7
Romney 8th*, 9, 11, 13, 3, 14, 10, 1, 16
http://www.google.com/elections/ed/us/results
8-Butler has 2,665 more votes for romney, while not even half of mercer is within the 8th. If it was santorum would take it, but unlikely.

Santorum doesn't get the 6th, 9th or 13th. Good thing Romney got the 9th and 13th anyways.

Santorum 18(would be 21)
Romney 27

At large
Romney 8
Santorum 7

For a total of
So Romney 8+27=35
Santorum 7+18=25
« Last Edit: March 13, 2012, 12:04:39 am by Matthew »Logged
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« Reply #233 on: March 13, 2012, 07:49:37 am »
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The Ohio SoS has had the by-CD results posted for a long while (at least for the delegates-by-CD vote, if not for the delegates-at-large vote)...while I appreciate your efforts, it wasn't really necessary.

The only Super Tuesday state without an accurate by-CD breakdown is Tennessee (we know Santorum won CDs 1-8, and Romney won CD 9, but we don't know who came in second everywhere).
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« Reply #234 on: March 13, 2012, 11:01:21 pm »
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In Mississippi, all three candidates received between one-sixth and one-half of the vote in all jurisdictions.  It therefore appears that the delegate allocation is:

Santorum - 13
Gingrich - 12
Romney - 12

A detailed delegate breakdown in Alabama will require digging through precinct-level data (which I will do tomorrow).  In the meantime, we can allocate the At-Large delegates:

Santorum - 10
Gingrich - 8
Romney - 8
Uncalled - 21
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« Reply #235 on: March 14, 2012, 09:30:29 am »
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Alabama CD Results (Provisional)

CD 1
Romney: 33128
Santorum: 30020
Gingrich: 24131

There are 358 votes in Clarke county that cannot be accurately split between CDs 1 and 7 (absentee votes and one split precinct); this does not alter the result that Romney wins the CD and Santorum is second, making the delegate split 2 Romney - 1 Santorum.

CD 2
Gingrich: 32632
Santorum: 29155
Romney: 26200

There are 8940 votes in Montgomery county that cannot accurately be split (absentee votes and 20! split precincts).  However, Gingrich is still guaranteed to win the CD overall.  While it may be mathematically possible for Romney to take 2nd place from the outstanding votes in Montgomery, this is exceedingly unlikely.  The resulting delegate split is 2 Gingrich - 1 Santorum.

CD 3
Santorum: 25408
Gingrich: 23833
Romney: 19633

There are 6525 votes in Montgomery county that cannot accurately be split (absentee votes and 6 split precincts).  Additionally, Cleburne county has yet to report.  However, it seems very unlikely that the order of candidates will change, making the resulting delegate split 2 Santorum - 1 Gingrich.

CD 4
Santorum: 39029
Gingrich: 25114
Romney: 21843

There are 2758 votes in Jackson, Blount, and Tuscaloosa counties that cannot accurately be split (absentee votes and 2, 4, and 2 split precincts, respectively).  These cannot change the outcome; the delegate split is 2 Santorum - 1 Gingrich.

CD 5
Santorum: 37095
Romney: 28273
Gingrich: 27221

There are 178 votes in Jackson county that cannot accurately be split (absentee votes and 2 split precincts).  However, this cannot change the outcome; the delegate split here is 2 Santorum - 1 Romney.

CD 6
Santorum: 36600
Romney: 35263
Gingrich: 32805

There are 12894 votes in Blount and Jefferson counties that cannot accurately be split (absentee votes and 4 and 16 split precincts, respectively).  The outstanding votes seem to slightly favor Santorum over Romney; thus it is quite likely Santorum retains his lead over Romney, and the delegate split is 2 Santorum - 1 Romney

CD 7
Santorum - 7805
Gingrich - 7170
Romney - 6974

There are 16075 votes in Clarke, Montgomery, Tuscaloosa and Jefferson counties that cannot accurately be split.  While, due to gerrymandering, it is very likely that most of these votes reside outside of CD7, this district is basically impossible to call.  Additionally, Greene county has yet to report.  If these standings hold, the allocation would be Santorum 2 - Gingrich 1.

Total Delegates by CD (total of 21)
Santorum - 12
Gingrich - 5
Romney - 4

Again, these are tentative; the winner in CD 6 may end up being Romney, and the CD 7 results are basically guesswork at this point.

« Last Edit: March 14, 2012, 10:46:21 am by Erc »Logged
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« Reply #236 on: March 14, 2012, 11:31:37 am »
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Gingrich's Prospects

I've talked about this before, but now that the key states (for Gingrich) of AL/MS have passed, I think it's a good time to return to this topic.

The bare minimum for Gingrich staying in the race was reaching 20% in AL/MS.  He well exceeded this, beating Romney in both the overall vote and (possibly) the delegate count.  That said, he probably hurt the ABR camp delegate-wise in those states; Santorum likely could have won majorities statewide and in most CDs and come close to sweeping the delegates.

But that's in the past.  What are his prospects going forward, both for picking up delegates himself and for helping (or hurting) the ABR cause?  I assume throughout that, should Gingrich drop out, a majority (but not all) of his support goes to Santorum, and Gingrich himself (and his represenatives at state conventions) are not prepared to strike a deal with the Romney camp (i.e. they really are in the ABR camp).

Puerto Rico:  There is apparently a 15% threshold, meaning Gingrich might struggle to win delegates himself.  The commonwealth is WTA if someone gets a majority, though; so staying in the race may help deprive Romney of a majority here.

Illinois:  This is a straight up loophole contest for delegates, so Gingrich straight-up hurts Santorum here without any chance to win delegates himself.

Louisiana Primary:  Gingrich should meet the 25% threshold here, and the state doesn't go WTA if you win a majority, so it helps the ABR camp for him to stay in here.

Missouri Caucuses:  As a caucus process, there's little harm in staying in, even though Gingrich himself is unlikely to get many delegates out of the process due to the way voting works at the State Convention.

District of Columbia:  WTA, so there's really no point...though Romney is likely to win here regardless.

Maryland:  WTA by jurisdiction, so he has little hope of getting anything himself, and may hurt Santorum in the few CDs he might have a chance of winning.

Wisconsin:  WTA by jurisdiction: he just plain hurts Santorum here.

Connecticut:  There's a slim chance he might help the ABR camp by denying Romney an overall majority here, but it's quite unlikely that Romney won't sweep the state regardless.

Delaware:  WTA, so unless he thinks he can win the state outright, he just hurts Santorum here.

New York:  He may hurt Santorum in a few CDs, but could play a critical role in stopping Romney getting 50% statewide and winning all the At-Large delegates.

Pennsylvania:  I'm not touching this one.

Rhode Island:  He won't make the 15% threshold, so no point.

Louisiana Caucus:  No reason not to compete, as it's a caucus state.

Indiana:  WTA by CD, he just hurts Santorum here.

North Carolina:  Purely proportional, no reason not to stay in.

West Virginia: WTA by jurisdiction; he just hurts Santorum here.

Oregon:  Purely proportional, no reason not to go for it.

Arkansas:  Although he is almost guaranteed to get at least one delegate from here if he stays in, he runs the significant chance of depriving Santorum of a majority and the chance to almost-sweep the state's delegates (as in AL/MS).

Kentucky:  Although it's proportional with a 15% cutoff statewide, he runs the risk of acting as a spoiler in the WTA CDs---likely net negative for the ABR camp.

Texas:  Purely proportional, no reason not to go for it.

California:  WTA by jurisdiction, he just hurts Santorum here.

New Jersey:  WTA, no reason to try and he hurts what slim chance Santorum had.

New Mexico:  Proportional, with a 15% cutoff.  Can't hurt to go for it.

South Dakota:  Proportional, with a 20% cutoff.  Likely hurts Santorum somewhat if he doesn't make it.

Nebraska, Montana:  Convention states, no reason not to try.

Utah:  Hah.



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« Reply #237 on: March 14, 2012, 11:36:04 am »
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with Romney at 51.9% I suppose the chances of him finishing below 50 are pretty bleak (barring losses in the massive firewalls, NY/CA)?
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« Reply #238 on: March 14, 2012, 11:39:20 am »
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Gingrich's Prospects: TL;DR

While there are many states where Gingrich staying in the race just straight up helps Romney, there are others where it's not so clear-cut, or he has a chance of hurting him.  Remember, not all Gingrich voters would immediately flock to Santorum if he dropped out.

If he can target his campaign to certain states and try to make himself as much of a non-factor as possible in the others, there may be a role for him yet.

Gingrich's Good States (he has a chance of winning delegates without hurting Santorum)
Puerto Rico, Louisiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Oregon, Texas, New Mexico, Nebraska, Montana

Gingrich's Middling States (he has a chance of winning delegates but may hurt Santorum, or he has a chance of helping Santorum even if he wins no or few delegates)
Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Arkansas, Kentucky, South Dakota

Gingrich's Bad States (no chance of winning delegates and he just hurts Santorum)
Illinois, DC, Wisconsin, Delaware, Rhode Island, Indiana, West Virginia, California, New Jersey
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Erc
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« Reply #239 on: March 14, 2012, 11:41:45 am »
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with Romney at 51.9% I suppose the chances of him finishing below 50 are pretty bleak (barring losses in the massive firewalls, NY/CA)?

I'd say so.  Santorum has to either pick up some surprising wins, or rack up huge margins in states where he can, to stop a Romney first ballot victory.

May is pretty good territory for Santorum, though, so unless he loses Pennsylvania there is no reason for him not to continue the race until California on June 5.
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« Reply #240 on: March 14, 2012, 11:43:41 am »
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I question whether Romney failed to come first in AL-06 (my eyeballing suggested Romney won by a bit), but accepting the numbers above that he didn't, after all the sound an fury, Mittens was 6 delegates short of my projection (mostly due to his subpar performance in Alabama where the CD delegate allocation is 2-1-0).  I didn't allocate any of the supers, although the press thinks Mittens got all 3 supers in Samoa, and Green Papers gives one Alabama super to Rick. Anyway, Mittens should be over 500 delegates now. As one can see, with these proportional rules, closing the gap with Mittens is very difficult, and is moving at a glacial pace. Before, Mittens needed about 47.5% of the remaining delegates, and now he needs 48.5% of them.   All in all, not too bad after returns dominated by an area where he was projected to be very weak until recently.

That 48.5% figure should drop back down after next week. Mittens should get a huge margin of the delegates in Illinois, since it is winner take all by CD and effectively that way with the at large delegates, and Rick isn't on the ballot in four CD's.  On the other hand, Missouri sort of has the same system of allocation, and Rick should get a huge margin there. However, the state has 17 fewer delegates than Illinois.

Illinois is shaping up as a state probably next in importance to only Florida thus far. It should be a barn burner.  However, even if Rick wins many of the CD's, with his delegates not on the ballot in four CD's (it would be nice to know which ones, because if some or all of them are downstate, then Rick is really screwed), the odds are that Mittens will get all of the 12 at large delegates.

« Last Edit: March 14, 2012, 12:06:30 pm by Torie »Logged

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« Reply #241 on: March 14, 2012, 08:02:04 pm »

Gingrich's Prospects: TL;DR

While there are many states where Gingrich staying in the race just straight up helps Romney, there are others where it's not so clear-cut, or he has a chance of hurting him.  Remember, not all Gingrich voters would immediately flock to Santorum if he dropped out.

If he can target his campaign to certain states and try to make himself as much of a non-factor as possible in the others, there may be a role for him yet.

This is a useful benchmark, but I don't think it captures the point of how Gingrich dropping out is the only hope for ABR.  If the status quo continues, with both Gingrich and Santorum in the race, then Romney wins the nomination relatively easily, even though he doesn't mathematically clinch it until June 5.

OTOH, if Gingrich drops out within the next few days, then it's at least possible that Santorum surges into a national polling lead over Romney, the media narrative becomes "This gives Santorum a big boost because he's no longer splitting the 'conservative vote'", Santorum wins the popular vote in Illinois even if he doesn't win the most delegates, and the collective wins from KS/AL/MS/IL/LA (new meme: Romney can now only win on islands) gives Santorum real momentum, potentially drawing in some votes in later states that might have otherwise gone to Romney.

I'm not saying that this would happen, but it's at least a possibility.  It's the only real hope for ABR, to change the narrative and shake up the race in a way that can't be captured in these static "who does Gingrich help or hit in such-and-such-a-state" analyses.

So if Gingrich really wants to stop Romney, I think he should suspend his campaign.  But maybe wait until Sunday night, after Puerto Rico votes, if he thinks there's any chance that being in the race prevents Romney from reaching 50%.  (But really, Romney probably reaches 50% there regardless, so I guess it doesn't matter.)
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« Reply #242 on: March 14, 2012, 09:45:42 pm »
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There is some possibility that Newt, as he runs out of money and relevance, if, will cease to secure double digit percentages even if he stays in. And while he would still be a factor, he would be sliding towards something with considerably more marginal impact. We shall see how many votes Newt siphons from Rick in Illinois, understanding that maybe a quarter to a third of Newt's defectors (defectors who migrate to one or the other rather than Paul or not voting, which would be as if they were not voting in most cases) will migrate to Romney rather than Rick, but yes, Newt getting out will up Rick's percentages more than Romney's, by a factor of from 2-1 to 3-1 as things stand now.
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« Reply #243 on: March 15, 2012, 01:27:25 am »
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A comparison of different delegate counts:

Data sourceRomneySantorumGingrichPauluncommittedtotal
Erc's count- Atlas Forum5132481395344997
US Election Atlas (Dave Leip)391177135322737
Green Papers (hard count)38516713325262972
Green Papers (soft count)493235157775967
MSNBC419184136340773
NYTimes495252131480926
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« Reply #244 on: March 15, 2012, 10:14:02 am »
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Gingrich's Prospects: TL;DR

While there are many states where Gingrich staying in the race just straight up helps Romney, there are others where it's not so clear-cut, or he has a chance of hurting him.  Remember, not all Gingrich voters would immediately flock to Santorum if he dropped out.

If he can target his campaign to certain states and try to make himself as much of a non-factor as possible in the others, there may be a role for him yet.

This is a useful benchmark, but I don't think it captures the point of how Gingrich dropping out is the only hope for ABR.  If the status quo continues, with both Gingrich and Santorum in the race, then Romney wins the nomination relatively easily, even though he doesn't mathematically clinch it until June 5.

OTOH, if Gingrich drops out within the next few days, then it's at least possible that Santorum surges into a national polling lead over Romney, the media narrative becomes "This gives Santorum a big boost because he's no longer splitting the 'conservative vote'", Santorum wins the popular vote in Illinois even if he doesn't win the most delegates, and the collective wins from KS/AL/MS/IL/LA (new meme: Romney can now only win on islands) gives Santorum real momentum, potentially drawing in some votes in later states that might have otherwise gone to Romney.

I'm not saying that this would happen, but it's at least a possibility.  It's the only real hope for ABR, to change the narrative and shake up the race in a way that can't be captured in these static "who does Gingrich help or hit in such-and-such-a-state" analyses.

So if Gingrich really wants to stop Romney, I think he should suspend his campaign.  But maybe wait until Sunday night, after Puerto Rico votes, if he thinks there's any chance that being in the race prevents Romney from reaching 50%.  (But really, Romney probably reaches 50% there regardless, so I guess it doesn't matter.)

 

I think Adelson is continuing to fund Gingrich because he (Adelson) is a Romney supporter and is dangling Gingrich like a puppet on a string to split the ABM vote.  This is not to say that Gingrich was always on the take (certainly not in NH or even SC), but he probably is at this point.  Another possibility is that Gingrich's ego is such that he's convinced himself that his presence in the race is crucial to stopping Romney (would anyone really be surprised if this were the case?).
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« Reply #245 on: March 15, 2012, 10:29:06 am »
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Maybe Gingrich wants to be the kingmaker. Paul probably won't have enough delegates to help Romney in August, Gingrich will. He can give Romney the nomination and ask for something in return (like the second spot).
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« Reply #246 on: March 15, 2012, 11:54:28 am »
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As I've hit the character limit in the main post, spinning off the full calendar to this post.

Calendar of Remaining Events

April 28:  Louisiana District Caucuses.
May 5:  Minnesota State Convention ends.
May 6:  Maine State Convention.
May 8:  Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia Primaries.
May 15:  Oregon Primary, Nebraska Beauty Contest.
May 22:  Arkansas, Kentucky Primary.
May 29:  Texas Primary.
June 2:  Louisiana, Missouri, Washington State Conventions.
June 5:  California, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota Primaries, Montana Beauty Contest.
June 9:  Indiana, Illinois State Conventions end.
June 10:  Nebraska County Conventions end.  Pennsylvania State Committee Summer Meeting.
June 16:  Iowa, Montana State Conventions end.
June 26:  Utah Primary.
July 14:  Nebraska State Convention.
July 23:  Final Delegate Selection Deadline (all states)

If this should come down to a credentials fight, a timeline of that process can be found here.
« Last Edit: April 25, 2012, 12:38:09 pm by Erc »Logged
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« Reply #247 on: March 15, 2012, 12:02:42 pm »
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Maybe Gingrich wants to be the kingmaker. Paul probably won't have enough delegates to help Romney in August, Gingrich will. He can give Romney the nomination and ask for something in return (like the second spot).

I think that is it.
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« Reply #248 on: March 15, 2012, 12:43:05 pm »
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Just out of curiosity (I make no claim to know otherwise, since my predictions about the 2012 primary season have proven so dismally poor), this is my question.

After all the acrimony of the primary season, after all the time he has spent propping up Santorum and excoriating Romney, why would Gingrich want to go to bat for Romney with his delegates in August in trade for a post in a Romney administration?  Don't get me wrong, I'm not accusing Gingrich of having principles or anything, so I concede that after all the hew and cry, he might just do it.  But hasn't all of Gingrich's invective made it very unlikely that Romney would want to give him anything even if Gingrich dangled his delegates in August?  Wouldn't the delegates Gingrich may have picked up by then just split on their own on the convention floor and go over to Santorum if Gingrich did something that cynical?  I'm not claiming to know better, please understand; I'm just not seeing how that kind of move on Gingrich's part could possibly work. 
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« Reply #249 on: March 15, 2012, 01:13:35 pm »
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Just out of curiosity (I make no claim to know otherwise, since my predictions about the 2012 primary season have proven so dismally poor), this is my question.

After all the acrimony of the primary season, after all the time he has spent propping up Santorum and excoriating Romney, why would Gingrich want to go to bat for Romney with his delegates in August in trade for a post in a Romney administration?  Don't get me wrong, I'm not accusing Gingrich of having principles or anything, so I concede that after all the hew and cry, he might just do it.  But hasn't all of Gingrich's invective made it very unlikely that Romney would want to give him anything even if Gingrich dangled his delegates in August?  Wouldn't the delegates Gingrich may have picked up by then just split on their own on the convention floor and go over to Santorum if Gingrich did something that cynical?  I'm not claiming to know better, please understand; I'm just not seeing how that kind of move on Gingrich's part could possibly work.  

I don't think that is really Newt's goal, or that he is delusional enough to think the odds are anything but remote that his delegates will be needed by anyone, and yes, delegates after the first ballot are not the personal property of the candidate to which they were bound on the first ballot anyway. Newt is in it for the attention. If Romney really needs someone else's delegates (very doubtful), the go to man will be Ron Paul. Ron has far more potential to be a king maker in the remote chance that one is required, than either Rick or Newt.

For even the bulk of the Paul delegates to still not be enough for Romney in this implausible scenario, the Rick/Newt candidate will have to get a lot more non-Evangelical votes outside the south and non-industrial midwest than he is getting now. We shall see just how well the Rick/Newt candidate does in the Chicago suburbs next week. The demographics there for Mittens are not quite as good as CA, but they are still his kind of place - higher income and more secular. The irony is that Rick has been a bust with Catholics so far, at least urban/suburban Catholics, where most of them live.

By the way, Dick Morris said last night that he expects Mittens to end up with 1298 delegates. Tongue  Granted, some of his assumptions are questionable, like Mittens winning West Virginia, and taking all 172 CA delegates (I would subtract six CD's from that, or 18 delegates to take a middle of the road position), and no doubt there are some other errors, but they don't add up to a lot of delegates. 1200 seems more reasonable perhaps, absent some substantial change.
« Last Edit: March 15, 2012, 02:04:22 pm by Torie »Logged

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