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« Reply #275 on: March 18, 2012, 07:50:00 pm »
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Are the Iowa delegates at risk as well?
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« Reply #276 on: March 18, 2012, 07:56:01 pm »
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Washington, Iowa, Colorado, and Maine are the main states where Romney is likely to do worse than media estimates, and he could lose 50+ delegates between all of those.
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« Reply #277 on: March 18, 2012, 08:01:02 pm »
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Plus it's very likely that Florida will be made proportional, which means Romney loses another 25 delegates from the current estimates. (Possibly Arizona as well)
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« Reply #278 on: March 18, 2012, 08:25:11 pm »
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Plus it's very likely that Florida will be made proportional, which means Romney loses another 25 delegates from the current estimates. (Possibly Arizona as well)

No, that will never happen, unless the non-Mittens get a majority without having done that, in which event it will be moot.
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« Reply #279 on: March 19, 2012, 09:13:50 pm »
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Plus it's very likely that Florida will be made proportional, which means Romney loses another 25 delegates from the current estimates. (Possibly Arizona as well)

No, that will never happen, unless the non-Mittens get a majority without having done that, in which event it will be moot.
Are you sure?  What would it take for the Santorum people to mount a credentials challenge of Florida at the convention?
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« Reply #280 on: March 19, 2012, 09:24:29 pm »
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Plus it's very likely that Florida will be made proportional, which means Romney loses another 25 delegates from the current estimates. (Possibly Arizona as well)

No, that will never happen, unless the non-Mittens get a majority without having done that, in which event it will be moot.
Are you sure?  What would it take for the Santorum people to mount a credentials challenge of Florida at the convention?

A majority, including one of the contested delegations.  If Santorum challenges FL, AZ gets to vote on it.  If Santorum challenges AZ, FL gets to vote on it. 
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« Reply #281 on: March 20, 2012, 11:01:10 am »
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Plus it's very likely that Florida will be made proportional, which means Romney loses another 25 delegates from the current estimates. (Possibly Arizona as well)

No, that will never happen, unless the non-Mittens get a majority without having done that, in which event it will be moot.
Are you sure?  What would it take for the Santorum people to mount a credentials challenge of Florida at the convention?

A majority, including one of the contested delegations.  If Santorum challenges FL, AZ gets to vote on it.  If Santorum challenges AZ, FL gets to vote on it. 

If Romney is short of 1144, it won't matter. After both challenges, he will be well short of 1144.

What you are describing is an act of a banana republic.
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« Reply #282 on: March 20, 2012, 11:32:48 am »
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I'm sure Romney really wants to build his delegate majority on illegal delegations. That'll go over real well with Santorum/Gingrich/Paul supporters.
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« Reply #283 on: March 20, 2012, 11:55:07 am »
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I thought this would be of interest:

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2017792794_paul_supporters_sweep_two_seat.html

Paul's supporters may manage to take a huge bite out of Romney's projected delegate totals in Washington. The fact that they took all the delegates from two legislative district in King county is especially telling: he lost the county by over 20%.

Any ideas on how this will shake out at the state convention? (besides likely chaos as party operatives seek to avoid a Paul victory)
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« Reply #284 on: March 20, 2012, 12:27:21 pm »
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I thought this would be of interest:

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2017792794_paul_supporters_sweep_two_seat.html

Paul's supporters may manage to take a huge bite out of Romney's projected delegate totals in Washington. The fact that they took all the delegates from two legislative district in King county is especially telling: he lost the county by over 20%.

Any ideas on how this will shake out at the state convention? (besides likely chaos as party operatives seek to avoid a Paul victory)

Paul may end up dominating a Seattle-area CD and pick up some delegates as a result.

Statewide---it makes the scenario I originally outlined (Romney camp dominating the State Convention and taking 34 out of 40 delegates) less likely, so the Santorum camp should be pleased at the news. 

It doesn't sound that Paul had the same sort of success everywhere, so I assume that the anti-Paul forces will still have a majority in most places at the State Convention.  I expect that resisting the Paulistas will prove more important that the Romney-Santorum fight, so an appropriately-divided Romney-Santorum slate is rather likely.  The 122 'superdelegates' at the State Convention would presumably also help out the anti-Paul forces as well.

If I can accumulate more solid data as to the results of the LD/County caucuses, I'll update my projection.  They run through to April 21, though, so don't hold your breath.

The State Convention ends June 2.
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« Reply #285 on: March 20, 2012, 01:17:36 pm »
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Plus it's very likely that Florida will be made proportional, which means Romney loses another 25 delegates from the current estimates. (Possibly Arizona as well)

No, that will never happen, unless the non-Mittens get a majority without having done that, in which event it will be moot.
Are you sure?  What would it take for the Santorum people to mount a credentials challenge of Florida at the convention?

A majority, including one of the contested delegations.  If Santorum challenges FL, AZ gets to vote on it.  If Santorum challenges AZ, FL gets to vote on it. 

If Romney is short of 1144, it won't matter. After both challenges, he will be well short of 1144.

What you are describing is an act of a banana republic.

What I am describing is found p. 616, ll. 20-30 of Robert's Rules of Order Newly Revised (2011).  That is the rule.  He will need only to have a majority, minus the largest delegation.

For example, if there is a challenge to the FL delegation, Romney will only needs 1119 votes to have them seated.

BTW:  This is how Eisenhower got the nomination on the first ballot in 1952, IIRC.
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« Reply #286 on: March 20, 2012, 02:12:44 pm »
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I thought this would be of interest:

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2017792794_paul_supporters_sweep_two_seat.html

Paul's supporters may manage to take a huge bite out of Romney's projected delegate totals in Washington. The fact that they took all the delegates from two legislative district in King county is especially telling: he lost the county by over 20%.

Any ideas on how this will shake out at the state convention? (besides likely chaos as party operatives seek to avoid a Paul victory)

Paul may end up dominating a Seattle-area CD and pick up some delegates as a result.

Statewide---it makes the scenario I originally outlined (Romney camp dominating the State Convention and taking 34 out of 40 delegates) less likely, so the Santorum camp should be pleased at the news. 

It doesn't sound that Paul had the same sort of success everywhere, so I assume that the anti-Paul forces will still have a majority in most places at the State Convention.  I expect that resisting the Paulistas will prove more important that the Romney-Santorum fight, so an appropriately-divided Romney-Santorum slate is rather likely.  The 122 'superdelegates' at the State Convention would presumably also help out the anti-Paul forces as well.

If I can accumulate more solid data as to the results of the LD/County caucuses, I'll update my projection.  They run through to April 21, though, so don't hold your breath.

The State Convention ends June 2.

I believe they are both part of the 7th CD which basically contains Seattle proper. Personally I see Paul racking up delegates in Eastern Washington plus the urban cores (Seattle, Bellingham, Vancouver). At the very least it should provide some fun entertainment.
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« Reply #287 on: March 20, 2012, 02:57:04 pm »
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Santorum Loses Wyoming Delegate to Romney  by: Oreo
Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 15:37:06 PM EDT
 
Mitt Romney's supporters in Wyoming have successfully challenged a delegate to the party's national convention that had been awarded to rival Rick Santorum — showing the lengths the campaigns are willing to go to fight over a single delegate.
State GOP Chairwoman Tammy Hooper said Tuesday the delegate is now awarded to Romney. - US News
 
http://www.democraticconventionwatch.com/diary/5239/santorum-loses-wyoming-delegate-to-romney
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« Reply #288 on: March 20, 2012, 03:18:22 pm »
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Santorum Loses Wyoming Delegate to Romney  by: Oreo
Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 15:37:06 PM EDT
 
Mitt Romney's supporters in Wyoming have successfully challenged a delegate to the party's national convention that had been awarded to rival Rick Santorum — showing the lengths the campaigns are willing to go to fight over a single delegate.
State GOP Chairwoman Tammy Hooper said Tuesday the delegate is now awarded to Romney. - US News
 
http://www.democraticconventionwatch.com/diary/5239/santorum-loses-wyoming-delegate-to-romney

Thanks for the heads up!  I'd had the delegate in the "Uncommitted" column pending resolution of the dispute.
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« Reply #289 on: March 21, 2012, 11:03:06 am »
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Plus it's very likely that Florida will be made proportional, which means Romney loses another 25 delegates from the current estimates. (Possibly Arizona as well)

No, that will never happen, unless the non-Mittens get a majority without having done that, in which event it will be moot.
Are you sure?  What would it take for the Santorum people to mount a credentials challenge of Florida at the convention?

A majority, including one of the contested delegations.  If Santorum challenges FL, AZ gets to vote on it.  If Santorum challenges AZ, FL gets to vote on it. 

If Romney is short of 1144, it won't matter. After both challenges, he will be well short of 1144.

What you are describing is an act of a banana republic.

What I am describing is found p. 616, ll. 20-30 of Robert's Rules of Order Newly Revised (2011).  That is the rule.  He will need only to have a majority, minus the largest delegation.

For example, if there is a challenge to the FL delegation, Romney will only needs 1119 votes to have them seated.

BTW:  This is how Eisenhower got the nomination on the first ballot in 1952, IIRC.

Um, he will need 1169 since that counts the 50 delegates from Florida who won't be able to vote to seat themselves.
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« Reply #290 on: March 21, 2012, 11:04:29 am »
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I think a lot of Torie's numbers are premature until we get more concrete information from the caucus state conventions. Romney is likely to lose a fair number of delegates from the current estimates.

Santorum is just as open to Ron Paul stealing his soft delegates. Missouri, Minnesota are two states that Santorum could lose as many if not more then Romney.

Does help Romney to 1144.
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« Reply #291 on: March 21, 2012, 11:08:51 am »
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I thought this would be of interest:

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2017792794_paul_supporters_sweep_two_seat.html

Paul's supporters may manage to take a huge bite out of Romney's projected delegate totals in Washington. The fact that they took all the delegates from two legislative district in King county is especially telling: he lost the county by over 20%.

Any ideas on how this will shake out at the state convention? (besides likely chaos as party operatives seek to avoid a Paul victory)

Paul may end up dominating a Seattle-area CD and pick up some delegates as a result.

Statewide---it makes the scenario I originally outlined (Romney camp dominating the State Convention and taking 34 out of 40 delegates) less likely, so the Santorum camp should be pleased at the news. 

It doesn't sound that Paul had the same sort of success everywhere, so I assume that the anti-Paul forces will still have a majority in most places at the State Convention.  I expect that resisting the Paulistas will prove more important that the Romney-Santorum fight, so an appropriately-divided Romney-Santorum slate is rather likely.  The 122 'superdelegates' at the State Convention would presumably also help out the anti-Paul forces as well.

If I can accumulate more solid data as to the results of the LD/County caucuses, I'll update my projection.  They run through to April 21, though, so don't hold your breath.

The State Convention ends June 2.

Since the number 1 priority of the candidates other than Romney is to assure Romney does reach 1144 [1169 before the challenges to Florida and Arizona] the rational act for all Santorum, Gingrich and Paul supporters is to apportion all caucus states delegates amongst themselves. If would suicidal for Santorum to throw in with Romney in Washington.
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« Reply #292 on: March 21, 2012, 11:59:04 am »
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« Reply #293 on: March 21, 2012, 12:24:13 pm »
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Interesting chart.
There are four winner take all states  left(counting DC), that are truly winner take all.  and Romney is expected to win them all.  DC, Deleware, New Jersey, Utah. 123 delegates (according to the greenpapers) that receive the most votes. 

That would mean he would need 40% of the remaining delegates (461).  Is that doable with what is left?  I guess it depends a lot on how Texas, and California Split up when they get there. 
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« Reply #294 on: March 21, 2012, 12:38:01 pm »
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Plus it's very likely that Florida will be made proportional, which means Romney loses another 25 delegates from the current estimates. (Possibly Arizona as well)

No, that will never happen, unless the non-Mittens get a majority without having done that, in which event it will be moot.
Are you sure?  What would it take for the Santorum people to mount a credentials challenge of Florida at the convention?

A majority, including one of the contested delegations.  If Santorum challenges FL, AZ gets to vote on it.  If Santorum challenges AZ, FL gets to vote on it. 

If Romney is short of 1144, it won't matter. After both challenges, he will be well short of 1144.

What you are describing is an act of a banana republic.

What I am describing is found p. 616, ll. 20-30 of Robert's Rules of Order Newly Revised (2011).  That is the rule.  He will need only to have a majority, minus the largest delegation.

For example, if there is a challenge to the FL delegation, Romney will only needs 1119 votes to have them seated.

BTW:  This is how Eisenhower got the nomination on the first ballot in 1952, IIRC.

Um, he will need 1169 since that counts the 50 delegates from Florida who won't be able to vote to seat themselves.

No, those fifty won't be counted in the majority. 

2286 total, with 50 from FL (according to RCP).  Subtract FL, 2236 total.  One half of that, 1118.  Majority in whole numbers 1119.
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« Reply #295 on: March 21, 2012, 12:49:03 pm »
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Yes, that's right JJ, but BSB's point, is that if the 50 Florida Mittens delegates cannot vote, Mittens will need 1169 delegates in his corner, to get to 1119 without his 50 Florida delegates voting. Are you sure the Robert's Rules or Order apply here?
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« Reply #296 on: March 21, 2012, 01:56:45 pm »
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Yes, that's right JJ, but BSB's point, is that if the 50 Florida Mittens delegates cannot vote, Mittens will need 1169 delegates in his corner, to get to 1119 without his 50 Florida delegates voting. Are you sure the Robert's Rules or Order apply here?

It lowers the majority needed to adopt.  As long as Romney gets to 1119, without FL. he has it.  The majority, according to RCP, is 1,144, with FL.  If FL is challenged, the majority drops to 1,119, without FL.  He'd need 1,169 only if you do count FL.  Or, Romney needs 1,119 without FL.

I know that Robert's Rules Newly Revised, current edition is their parliamentary authority, but the convention is covered by US House Rules, .  I checked and it is in their own rules, (Rule 23).  Only one delegation may be challenged at one time.

Further, if FL would be challenged, it would be up to the state chair to appoint the delegates.
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« Reply #297 on: March 21, 2012, 02:36:11 pm »
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Yes, that's right JJ, but BSB's point, is that if the 50 Florida Mittens delegates cannot vote, Mittens will need 1169 delegates in his corner, to get to 1119 without his 50 Florida delegates voting. Are you sure the Robert's Rules or Order apply here?

It lowers the majority needed to adopt.  As long as Romney gets to 1119, without FL. he has it.  The majority, according to RCP, is 1,144, with FL.  If FL is challenged, the majority drops to 1,119, without FL.  He'd need 1,169 only if you do count FL.  Or, Romney needs 1,119 without FL.

I know that Robert's Rules Newly Revised, current edition is their parliamentary authority, but the convention is covered by US House Rules, .  I checked and it is in their own rules, (Rule 23).  Only one delegation may be challenged at one time.

Further, if FL would be challenged, it would be up to the state chair to appoint the delegates.

JJ, if Mittens does not have 1169 delegates with the Florida delegation, and it can't vote on its own challenge, then Mittens does not have 1119 votes to defeat the challenge on his own. The issue is if the Florida delegation can vote on its own challenge. When you say that if Florida were challenged, it is up to the state chair to appoint the delegates, do you mean that if the challenge is successful, the chairman can appoint anyone he wants? Or does he need to appoint delegates proportionally?

It might be helpful to put up the actual text. What language are you relying upon for your opinion?

Quote
RULE NO. 23

Contest Procedure

(a) The Committee on Contests shall have the power to adopt procedural rules, not inconsistent with these rules, which shall govern the expeditious resolution of contests before the Committee on Contests. When any deadline set out in this rule falls on a Sunday or legal holiday, such deadline shall be extended to the following day.

(b) No later than twenty-two (22) days before the convening of the national convention (or, in the case of delegates or alternate delegates elected at a time or times in accordance with applicable state law rendering impossible compliance with this requirement, within five (5) days after such election), each of the parties shall file with the secretary of the Republican National Committee at least three (3) printed or typewritten copies of the statement of position in support of the party’s claim to sit as delegates or alternate delegates to the national convention together with such affidavits or other evidence as desired. The secretary of the Republican National Committee, upon receiving the statement of position of a party, shall furnish the opposing party a copy of said statement of position. Each statement of position shall begin with a summary of not more than one thousand (1,000) words setting forth succinctly a synopsis of the statement of position and a specific statement of the points relied upon.

(c) The Committee on Contests shall promptly hear the matter; decide which issues are involved, either of law or fact, or both; decide upon its recommendation for resolution of such issues; and submit such issues and its recommendations for resolution to the Republican National Committee. The issues so submitted by the Committee on Contests shall be the sole issues passed upon and determined by the Republican National Committee unless the Republican National Committee shall, by a majority vote, extend or change the same. If the Committee on Contests for any reason shall fail to state the issues either of law or fact, the Republican National Committee shall decide upon what issues the contest shall be tried, and the hearing shall be limited to such issues unless the Republican National Committee, by a majority vote, shall decide otherwise.

(d) The Committee on Contests shall make up a report of each contest filed, showing the grounds of contest; the statute and rule, if any, under which the contest is waged; and the contentions of each party thereto. The report shall conclude with a statement of the points of issue in the contest, both of fact and law, and a statement of the recommendation of the Committee on Contests as to resolution of such points of issue, and shall be signed by the chairman or his designee. When the Committee on Contests has prepared such report stating the issues of law and fact, a copy of the statement of such issues shall be submitted forthwith to a person in the convention city, whom the parties must appoint at the time of filing the contest to receive such statement, and a copy shall be served forthwith by the chairman of the Committee on Contests upon the parties by the most expeditious method available, providing for written evidence of receipt including, but not limited to, overnight delivery service.

(e) The parties shall have eight ( 8 ) days to file written objections to the Committee on Contests’ statement of the issues of fact or law, or both, unless the Republican National Committee is called to act upon the contest sooner, in which case such objections shall be made before the meeting of the whole committee. The objections shall contain any additional statement of issues of either law or fact, or both, claimed by the party submitting the same to be involved in and necessary to be decided in the contest.

(f) When the Republican National Committee is called to pass upon any contest that may arise, the members of the Convention Committee on Credentials shall also be notified of the time and place of such meeting and shall have the right to attend all hearings of all contests but without the right to participate in the discussion or the vote.
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« Reply #298 on: March 21, 2012, 02:43:17 pm »
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Another thought.  If the greenpapers are right all states are to complete their delegate selection by June 23, however in Utah are primary is June 26th.  Another challenge? Penalty?
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« Reply #299 on: March 21, 2012, 02:51:47 pm »
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EDIT: Torie beat me to the punch with a huge post, but maybe this will be of help as well.

The following appears to be the full contest procedure.  Throughout, RNC = Republican National Committee, and "state" includes the territories.

July 23:  All delegates and alternates must be selected by this date.

July 28:  The RNC secretary must receive the credentials of every delegate and alternates by this date, and their names are placed on the Temporary Roll.

If a state selects more delegates than it is entitled to (I'm looking at you, New Hampshire), they are automatically deemed under contest.

Any other contests must be filed with the RNC secretary by this date.  Only contests regarding delegates selected at-Large may be presented, unless the contest is due to the irregular or unlawful action of the State Committee or State Convention.

Any contested delegate does not have voting rights at the convention (or any of its committees) until the contest is permanently resolved by the vote of the convention of a whole, with one exception (see August 13, below).

The RNC secretary also receives the names of delegates elected to the Convention Committee on Credentials by this date.  The Committee on Credentials (which does not convene until the Convention itself) consists of one man and one woman from each state.

August 5:  Parties involved in contests must submit statements to the Committee on Contests by this date.  The Committee on Contests "promptly" hears the matter and prepares a statement stating the points of issue in the contest and their recommendation for its resolution, which is delivered to the RNC and the involved parties.  The involved parties have eight days to file written objections to this statement.

August 13 (or later):  The RNC votes on the resolution of contests.  The RNC may choose to restore convention voting rights to a contested delegate on the Temporary Roll at this time, except no delegate may vote on matters involving his own credentials.

August 27:  Appeals of RNC rulings on contests must be filed with the RNC secretary by this date. The Committee on Credentials hears these appeals, and submits its report to the Convention as a whole.  The Committee on Credentials may choose to restore convention voting rights to a contested delegate on the Temporary Roll at this time, except no delegate may vote on matters involving his own credentials.

The report of the Committee on Credentials is the first matter voted on by the convention as a whole.  Amendments to this report may be proposed, but no amendment may concern the credentials of delegates from more than one state.
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