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| | |-+  The Delegate Fight: 2012
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Author Topic: The Delegate Fight: 2012  (Read 28446 times)
Snowstalker
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« Reply #350 on: April 02, 2012, 07:18:09 am »
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All delegate results should be directly tied to the primary/caucus results.
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« Reply #351 on: April 02, 2012, 07:46:33 am »
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That's disgusting...


It really is, whether it's Romney, Paul, Santorum, or Gingrich's campaign doing it.  One would hope that they'd have a little bit more respect for the will of the voters, but obviously they don't.  Romney should get his fair share of delegates in Nevada and Washington just like Santorum should in Iowa, Minnesota, Colorado, North Dakota, and especially Missouri (even if no where else, since he basically ran the board here).  This whole Republican primary season has been one big argument for abolishing caucuses and having every state distribute its delegates based either on the candidates percentage of the state-wide popular vote.  There are definitely problems with distributing delegates by congressional district, or worse still, winner-take-all.  However, the caucus' have consistently resulted in each of the remaining campaigns actively subverting the will of the voters.  It just seems so...undemocratic.
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« Reply #352 on: April 02, 2012, 05:42:57 pm »
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When's the Texas Primary? I just got my voter thing in the mail so I want an answer.
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #353 on: April 02, 2012, 08:02:15 pm »
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When's the Texas Primary? I just got my voter thing in the mail so I want an answer.

May 29.
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« Reply #354 on: April 02, 2012, 08:35:55 pm »
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When's the Texas Primary? I just got my voter thing in the mail so I want an answer.
Yo, bro, maybe you should read the OP.
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« Reply #355 on: April 02, 2012, 09:42:30 pm »
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When's the Texas Primary? I just got my voter thing in the mail so I want an answer.
Yo, bro, maybe you should read the OP.
It wasn't mentioned in the OP.
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« Reply #356 on: April 02, 2012, 09:47:55 pm »
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When's the Texas Primary? I just got my voter thing in the mail so I want an answer.
Yo, bro, maybe you should read the OP.
It wasn't mentioned in the OP.
Did you look?  Because there was a link at the bottom to the Full Calendar.
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« Reply #357 on: April 03, 2012, 01:12:30 am »
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Our good friends at Demconwatch have the list of all 25 delegates selected at the ND GOP state convention.

Of these, 5 can be explicitly confirmed to be for Romney and 1 for Santorum, while the intentions of the other 19 cannot be confirmed at this time.


In other news, one of Huntsman's three delegates in New Hampshire, Paul Collins, has endorsed Romney, while the other two have confirmed they remain uncommitted.  As New Hampshire is subject to sanctions due to its early timing, it is unclear which (presumably two) of the three will be seated, so the main page count remains unchanged at the moment.
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« Reply #358 on: April 03, 2012, 10:53:03 am »
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I'll be treating North Dakota's 25 delegates as superdelegates, so we'd better start keeping track of them.

The official list of delegates and alternates elected can be found here.

John Hoeven (US Senator) - ROMNEY
Rick Berg (US Congressman)
Betsy Dalrymple (First Lady)
Wayne Stenehjem (Attorney General) - ROMNEY
Robert Harms (NDGOP treasurer) - ROMNEY
Kyle Handegard (associated with Rick Berg's office)
Clare Carlson - ROMNEY
Gary Emineth (former NDGOP chairman) - SANTORUM
Joe Miller (State Senator) - SANTORUM
Margaret Sitte (Former State Rep.) - PAUL
Delores Rath (2004, 2008 Delegate)
Jim Poolman (ND GOP Vice-Chairman) - ROMNEY
Kelly Schmidt (State Treasurer)
Paul Henderson - PAUL
Gary Lee (State Senator)
Francis Klein
Mike Schatz (State Rep.)
Carol Nitschke
Shane Goettle (U.S. House candidate) - ROMNEY, but would support a proportional allocation
Caren Mikesh
Karen Rohr (State Rep.)
Craig Headland (State Rep.)
Paul Owens
Jim Kasper (State Rep.)
John Kerian - SANTORUM

And, don't forget the three RNC Members:

Stan Stein
Curly Haugland
Sandy Boehler - ROMNEY

This gives a confirmed total of Romney - 5, Santorum - 3, Paul - 2, with 18 still uncommitted.  If the general rumor of Romney - 20, Santorum - 6, Paul - 2 is correct, it means the vast majority of the above are going to break for Romney.  However, since several of the above have explicitly refused to make an endorsement (Rick Berg, Betsy Dalrymple), I'm disinclined to completely trust the rumors.

The AP has surveyed all 25 delegates, and found that 12 supported Romney, 8 supported Santorum, 2 supported Paul, and 1 supported Gingrich.  2 were still undecided.

This leaves open the question of whether the delegation as it stands will vote according to the results of the caucuses, or according to their personal preferences.

Shane Goettle, a Romney supporter, has said he will support a proportional allocation of their votes, and it seems that others may agree with him---of course, if this should come down to a fight at the convention where every delegate matters, I doubt the Romney supporters would be so quick to agree to a plan like that.
« Last Edit: April 06, 2012, 09:47:41 pm by Erc »Logged
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« Reply #359 on: April 03, 2012, 11:09:33 am »
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In other news:

Tennessee has finally certified the results of its primary.

As we knew already, Santorum won CDs 1-8 and placed second in CD 9 (which Romney won).

Romney placed second in all other CDs except CDs 6 and 8, where Gingrich placed second.

Basically, as far as the front page is concerned---Romney placed second in CD 4 instead of Gingrich, and picks up a delegate at Gingrich's expense.

TN delegate breakdown is 29 - 17 - 9, S - R - G.
« Last Edit: April 03, 2012, 12:31:57 pm by Erc »Logged
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« Reply #360 on: April 03, 2012, 11:55:37 pm »
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Romney sweeps Maryland and DC, wins Wisconsin by about 33 - 9.  While we aren't entirely certain about the exact Wisconsin breakdown, this is clearly a good night for Romney on the delegate front.

Santorum did better than expectations (my expectations, certainly), but we're in WTA (or nearly WTA) country now, and close doesn't quite cut it.

My current Santorum-favorable projection for future contests (it had Santorum winning Wisconsin before today) has Romney coming in with 51 more votes than he needs for a majority, even if every single remaining superdelegate breaks against him.

While it's still of course possible that Romney won't have clinched in an extremely technical sense by the end of this process (not all of his delegates will be technically bound to him, and could still change their minds or be Paulista fifth columnists), that's a hope even more distant than Gary Hart's in 84.

Santorum needs to completely shake up the race in order to have a shot at this, and Gingrich dropping out wouldn't cut it at this point.   Basically, he needs to follow up a win in Pennsylvania by sweeping all the May states, and then somehow turning that into a win in California...and possibly New Jersey as well, while we're at it.

May is a very good month for Santorum (if he survives April)...but if CA/NJ don't budge from the Romney camp, Romney gets declared the nominee June 5.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #361 on: April 06, 2012, 04:00:20 am »

The Santorum campaign is trying to get Texas to change to WTA, but it's unlikely that the Texas GOP would agree to that, and less likely that the RC would grant Texas the necessary waiver to change their delegate allocation rules this late in the game:

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/04/05/11041257-is-texas-looking-to-change-its-delegate-rules-to-help-santorum
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« Reply #362 on: April 06, 2012, 12:47:30 pm »
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A change in the delegate selection process this late in the game is very expressly against RNC rules.  While a vote at the convention itself (excluding Texas' delegates) could overturn that, there's no way that, if Texas were the deciding factor in stopping a Romney majority, that the vote would pass on the floor.
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« Reply #363 on: April 06, 2012, 12:58:27 pm »
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Alabama has finished and reviewed the certification of last month's primary results.

The biggest mess, as we all knew, was CD 7, due to its huge number of split precincts.  After a review of results there, it was determined that Gingrich did in fact beat Romney for second place there.  Sadly I don't have numbers for you guys.

The resulting delegate count is Santorum - 22, Gingrich - 13, Romney - 12, luckily enough in exact accordance with my original projection.
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Erc
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« Reply #364 on: April 06, 2012, 01:06:34 pm »
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Those fate of those four delegate slots in Ohio (where Santorum won the vote but had no delegate candidates) is still up in the air.  Romney is actively pushing to have his delegates (which were on the ballot) seated instead.  There are similarly 15 alternate slots---which may prove important if any of Santorum's delegates, many of whom were chosen in an extremely slapdash manner, fail to make it to the convention.

It seems the matter may be decided next week, when the State Central Committee meets on April 13.
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Erc
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« Reply #365 on: April 06, 2012, 01:20:09 pm »
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The RNC apparently keeps a similar post updated from time to time; they get their counts directly from the state parties.  As is understandable, it only tracks delegates from states that bind their delegates (or 'morally' bind them, in the case of Illinois and Ohio), so many caucus states are left out.

The only discrepancies between their count and mine are in Alabama and Tennessee, where Gingrich has an extra delegate at the expense of Romney.  All the other media sources seem to agree with my count, though.

Between this and those two weird delegates in Georgia, I don't know what's going on down South.
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« Reply #366 on: April 06, 2012, 09:56:44 pm »
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The AP has interviewed North Dakota's 28 delegates, and found that the Twitter rumors were, of course, exaggerated.

Romney - 13
Santorum - 8
Paul - 2
Gingrich - 1
Uncommitted - 4

More tellingly, however, it seems that the delegation may, despite the large amount of Romney support, decide to vote on the basis of the caucus after all.  One Romney supporter (US House candidate Shane Goettle) was quoted as saying that he would vote as necessary to ensure that the delegation's vote reflects the caucuses, and the AP has implied that this is the general consensus.

Of course, in the event this actually does go to Tampa, it's likely going to be every man for himself.

To reflect this uncertainty, the main page will give each candidate the minimum number of delegates among the two counts (i.e. their worst-case scenario).  This works out to be:

Santorum - 8
Romney - 7
Paul - 2
Gingrich - 1
Unallocated/Uncommitted - 10
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« Reply #367 on: April 09, 2012, 02:34:36 pm »
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The Santorum campaign is trying to get Texas to change to WTA, but it's unlikely that the Texas GOP would agree to that, and less likely that the RC would grant Texas the necessary waiver to change their delegate allocation rules this late in the game:

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/04/05/11041257-is-texas-looking-to-change-its-delegate-rules-to-help-santorum

The RNC waiver would be a formality at this point. Do you really think they would want to maintain the appearance of grossly favoring Romney yet one more time?

Texas has been WTA. The only reason it was not WTA this time is the fact that RNC rules disallowed a WTA primary in March. Since the Courts pushed the primary date past the date that WTA primaries could occur, the basic presumption would be that Texas would switch back.
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« Reply #368 on: April 09, 2012, 02:38:25 pm »
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A change in the delegate selection process this late in the game is very expressly against RNC rules.  While a vote at the convention itself (excluding Texas' delegates) could overturn that, there's no way that, if Texas were the deciding factor in stopping a Romney majority, that the vote would pass on the floor.

Unless, the party bosses decided stopping Romney was in their best interests.
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« Reply #369 on: April 10, 2012, 02:58:35 am »
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Your caucus estimates are way off and favoring Romney while underestimating Paul.  There's nothing conservative about them.

Romney is likely getting zero delegates in Iowa and less delegates than Paul in Washington.  Paul also seems like he's going to win Maine by quite a bit.  The Paulites seem to think they have Colorado too but I find that hard to believe.  Minnesota looks like Paul probably will have more than Santorum though.
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« Reply #370 on: April 10, 2012, 03:01:54 am »
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A change in the delegate selection process this late in the game is very expressly against RNC rules.  While a vote at the convention itself (excluding Texas' delegates) could overturn that, there's no way that, if Texas were the deciding factor in stopping a Romney majority, that the vote would pass on the floor.
Actually, it would appear that WTA contests are against national RNC rules, so I think there's actually more chance that when it's all said and done that Willard will lose some from Arizona and Florida, rather than anything crazy happening with Texas.
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« Reply #371 on: April 10, 2012, 08:21:33 am »

A change in the delegate selection process this late in the game is very expressly against RNC rules.  While a vote at the convention itself (excluding Texas' delegates) could overturn that, there's no way that, if Texas were the deciding factor in stopping a Romney majority, that the vote would pass on the floor.
Actually, it would appear that WTA contests are against national RNC rules, so I think there's actually more chance that when it's all said and done that Willard will lose some from Arizona and Florida, rather than anything crazy happening with Texas.

WTA contests are only against the rules for contests going before a certain date (in March iirc)
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« Reply #372 on: April 10, 2012, 08:25:57 am »
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A change in the delegate selection process this late in the game is very expressly against RNC rules.  While a vote at the convention itself (excluding Texas' delegates) could overturn that, there's no way that, if Texas were the deciding factor in stopping a Romney majority, that the vote would pass on the floor.
Actually, it would appear that WTA contests are against national RNC rules, so I think there's actually more chance that when it's all said and done that Willard will lose some from Arizona and Florida, rather than anything crazy happening with Texas.

WTA contests are only against the rules for contests going before a certain date (in March iirc)
And they already got penalized by losing half of their delegates.
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« Reply #373 on: April 10, 2012, 09:08:42 am »
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http://www.gop.com/index.php/news/comments/republican_national_committee_approves_2012_presidential_nominating_process
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(2) Any presidential primary, caucus, convention, or other meeting held for the purpose of selecting delegates to the national convention which occurs prior to the first day of April in the year in which the national convention is held, shall provide for the allocation of delegates on a proportional basis.
As you can see in the rules, they got penalized for holding their primary too soon, rather than for non-proportional allocation of delegates.
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« Reply #374 on: April 10, 2012, 09:22:22 am »
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http://rebelpundit.com/2012/04/washington-state-gop-skirts-rules-to-sabotage-santorum/

Looks like Rmoney is getting shut out and it's making his people mad!
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