The Delegate Fight: 2012

[Erc]

Your caucus estimates are way off and favoring Romney while underestimating Paul.  There's nothing conservative about them.

Romney is likely getting zero delegates in Iowa and less delegates than Paul in Washington.  Paul also seems like he's going to win Maine by quite a bit.  The Paulites seem to think they have Colorado too but I find that hard to believe.  Minnesota looks like Paul probably will have more than Santorum though.

If I were to do this over again, I'd probably leave out the caucus states entirely; the overall format of this thread is a holdover from the 2008 Democratic process, which has strict rules to prevent these sorts of shenanigans.  That year, the only real uncertainty in caucus states like Iowa was what would happen once Edwards' delegates dropped out (and smaller versions of the 'enthusiasm gap' were concerns in states like Idaho)---you could pretty accurately project the final results based on the results of the caucuses themselves.

On the Republican side, of course the process is a lot more ugly.  I made projections based on the caucus results themselves, that for a variety of reasons, many of which you have listed (and more of which I've listed in the main post) are likely to be incredibly wrong.  My plan was to update these projections as the caucus/convention process continued in each state; however, there is very little centralized reporting, and I'm not going to take anecdotal reports by Paulistas as gospel.

So, we're going to have to wait until the CD and State Conventions in each state.  The only state that's held one so far is North Dakota, and there Romney (of all people) did better than anyone's original projections.

We'll see what happens in Wyoming (which I currently project to be swept by a Romney slate) and Colorado (Lord knows) this Saturday.

[America First]

We'll see what happens in Wyoming (which I currently project to be swept by a Romney slate) and Colorado (Lord knows) this Saturday.

I thought Wyoming was already decided, and Romney won most of the delegates.  I also thought each county picked a delegate and the state convention didn't pick the slate.  Maybe I'm wrong though, that's just from the back of my head.

Colorado seems like it will be Paul and Santorum shutting out Romney.  I'm guessing Santorum will get a few more than Paul, but Romney will probably be the loser.

[A cowboy always follows his beard]

Help m out: Since Saitly Rick droppd out, where are his delegates going?

[America First]

He didn't drop out.  He suspended his campaign, so all of his pledged delegates in primary states must still vote for him on the first ballot.  However, his unpledged delegates (mostly in caucuses) can vote for whomever they choose.

[Erc]

What's going to happen to Santorum's delegates?

As America First mentioned, there is a difference between 'dropping out' and 'suspending a campaign'---but, more importantly, there are many differences from state to state as to how the pledges work.

Let's go through it state by state:

IA/CO/MN/ME/WY/WA:  Iowa-style caucuses.  Most of the delegates haven't even been chosen yet, and those that have are unbound.
North Dakota, Ohio, Illinois: delegates are unpledged.
Michigan, Alaska:  Delegates are released if the candidate suspends their campaign.

Nevada (3): ?
Georgia (3): Delegates are released if the candidate withdraws, releases their delegates, or receives less than 35% of the votes on a ballot, or after 2 ballots.
Oklahoma (14): Delegates are released if the candidate is no longer a candidate.
Tennessee (29):  Delegates are released after two ballots.
Vermont (4): Delegates are released if the candidate withdraws, is not placed into nomination, or after one ballot.
Kansas (33): Delegates are bound unless released by the candidate.
Alabama (22): Delegates are bound unless released by the candidate, or by the decision of two-thirds of the Santorum delegates.
Mississippi (13):  Delegates are bound unless released by the candidate.
Hawaii (5):  Delegates are bound unless the candidate withdraws, or after one ballot.
Louisiana (10): ?
Wisconsin (9):  Delegates are bound unless released by the candidate, or the candidate receives fewer than 1/3 of the votes in any ballot.

The exact definition of 'withdraw' may be open to interpretation. 

Of course, there is also the quite definite possibility that Santorum will not even be placed in nomination---you need the support of a plurality of delegates from 5 states in order to be placed into nomination.  At the moment, Santorum can really only count Kansas, Alabama, and Tennessee.  Although he presently has pluralities in Oklahoma and Mississippi as well, there are enough unpledged delegates to give someone else (Romney or Gingrich) a plurality there instead, so Santorum may not be able to have his name placed into nomination even if he wants to (and he probably won't have his name placed in nomination even if he could).

This, of course, skirts the entire question of how enforceable any of these rules are.

[Erc]

TL;DR:

In caucus states, the process isn't over yet; Santorum dropping out means he won't get any delegates (unless some 'Unity Conservative' ticket is elected).

In many states, his delegates are unpledged already or were released the moment he suspended his campaign.

In other states, they are still pledged to him unless he actually withdraws or releases his delegates from their pledges.

It is not clear whether Santorum could get his name placed in nomination if he wanted it to be; it is not clear whether Santorum would want to get his name placed in nomination if he could.  I find it highly unlikely that candidates will be held to their pledges if Santorum's name is not placed in nomination.

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I knew he would loose Michigan's delegates. Romney lost them to McCain when he suspended back in 2008.

[ShadowOfTheWave]

We'll see what happens in Wyoming (which I currently project to be swept by a Romney slate) and Colorado (Lord knows) this Saturday.

I thought Wyoming was already decided, and Romney won most of the delegates.  I also thought each county picked a delegate and the state convention didn't pick the slate.  Maybe I'm wrong though, that's just from the back of my head.

Colorado seems like it will be Paul and Santorum shutting out Romney.  I'm guessing Santorum will get a few more than Paul, but Romney will probably be the loser.

Amazing how the Paul campaign works. So much for "Liberty".

[Erc]

I'll probably keep this going until this weekend's conventions and the first set of post-Santorum polls.

Unless Gingrich (or 'Uncommitted') shows signs of life, I'm going to start winding down the thread.

[America First]

Amazing how the Paul campaign works. So much for "Liberty".

So they should wave the white flag to the anti-liberty establishment?

[IDS Legislator Alfred F. Jones]

Amazing how the Paul campaign works. So much for "Liberty".

So they should wave the white flag to the anti-liberty establishment?

We're not saying that, it's just that for a candidate who prides himself on being the anti-establishment go-to guy, Paul's campaign seems to be very good at subverting the will of the people and stealing delegates from the candidates who actually won.

[America First]

We're not saying that, it's just that for a candidate who prides himself on being the anti-establishment go-to guy, Paul's campaign seems to be very good at subverting the will of the people and stealing delegates from the candidates who actually won.

Not really, if the other people had such a strong will, they'd be able to take advantage of it and win those states, but only the Paul people have that will.

[IDS Legislator Alfred F. Jones]

We're not saying that, it's just that for a candidate who prides himself on being the anti-establishment go-to guy, Paul's campaign seems to be very good at subverting the will of the people and stealing delegates from the candidates who actually won.

Not really, if the other people had such a strong will, they'd be able to take advantage of it and win those states, but only the Paul people have that will.

That's not the point. The point is that Paul is stealing delegates.

[America First]

That's not the point. The point is that Paul is stealing delegates.

No, he's winning delegates that he rightfully deserves.  If it wasn't for the media and the GOP establishment, he would already be the nominee, so I'm not exactly concerned with him "stealing" a few delegates here and there.  It doesn't near make up for the disadvantage he finds himself in.

[Zarn]

We're not saying that, it's just that for a candidate who prides himself on being the anti-establishment go-to guy, Paul's campaign seems to be very good at subverting the will of the people and stealing delegates from the candidates who actually won.

Not really, if the other people had such a strong will, they'd be able to take advantage of it and win those states, but only the Paul people have that will.

That's not the point. The point is that Paul is stealing delegates.

You do realize that the nomination is not through any sort of popular vote?

[IDS Legislator Alfred F. Jones]

We're not saying that, it's just that for a candidate who prides himself on being the anti-establishment go-to guy, Paul's campaign seems to be very good at subverting the will of the people and stealing delegates from the candidates who actually won.

Not really, if the other people had such a strong will, they'd be able to take advantage of it and win those states, but only the Paul people have that will.

That's not the point. The point is that Paul is stealing delegates.

You do realize that the nomination is not through any sort of popular vote?

A: That's not entirely true.

B: That's not my point. I'm simply saying that if Paul really wants to run against the establishment, he shouldn't be using dirty tricks to get more than his fair share of delegates. No one should.

[Erc]

This evening features the first contest to occur after Santorum dropping out of the race: the 7th CD convention in Colorado.

I believe Santorum won the district in February, so this should be our first indicator of whether there is any remaining anti-Romney resistance.

[America First]

A: That's not entirely true.

B: That's not my point. I'm simply saying that if Paul really wants to run against the establishment, he shouldn't be using dirty tricks to get more than his fair share of delegates. No one should.

So your point is that Paul should just sit there and let the establishment use dirty tricks against him and not fight back with any of his own?  The only way to fight the establishment is to attempt to beat it, and if you concede then you aren't accomplishing anything.

[firennice]

I looked this morning and found results... nowhere on Colorado. 

[Erc]

I looked this morning and found results... nowhere on Colorado. 

The other 6 CDs have their conventions today, followed by the State Convention tomorrow.

[Minnesota Mike]

I looked this morning and found results... nowhere on Colorado. 

Kristen Wyatt ‏ @APkristenwyatt

From CD7: Pete Coors a pledged delegate for Romney. Other delegates: Anil Mathai (Santorum), Jeremy Strand (unpledged) #copolitics


CD7's alternates to the RNC: @libbyszabo (unpledged); Lloyd Garcia (unpledged); Robert Eskenberry (Ron Paul). #copolitics
13h Kristen Wyatt Kristen Wyatt ‏ @APkristenwyatt

[firennice]

I can see that happening.  It is too soon.  Until Santorum slaps Mitt or someone on the back in a photo opp, many will stay loyal to Santorum.

I have heard many Paul followers say that they have a majority in a number of states, do they?  Most are uncommitted it seems.  If Paul wants to be on the first round ballot at convention, don't they have to commit, or announce to have a plurality in at least five states?

2nd question If Santorum does not Submit his name, and he is not on the ballot of the first round, are his delegates free? Is there an option  "none of the above"?  or would they have to choose Mitt (assuming he is the only one with a plurality in five states)?

[Erc]

There were still people who voted for Paul and Romney last time around, despite their names not being placed in nomination.  It may be more a matter off who gets to make nominating speeches, rather than who people can vote for?  I'm not sure.

[firennice]

  It would not let me post a link to the gop site directly (too much lurking and not enough posting).

District assembly results

Santorum 6
Romney 5
Paul 0
Uncommitted 9

Though the alternates are majority Romney
Romney 10, Paul 4, Santorum 0, Uncommited 7

After listening to Paul supporters at work say they were going to claim a majority of the districts in Colorado, this has to be a setback.

Delegates to the Republican National Convention:
·         Congressional District 1
o   Nancy McKiernanm, Santorum
o   Celement Koerber Jr., Unpledged
o   Florence Sebern, Unpledged
·         Congressional District 2
o   Timothy Leonard, Unpledged
o   Sue Sharkey, Santorum
o   Solomon Martinez, Unpledged
·         Congressional District 3
o   Todd King, Unpledged
o   Luke Kirk, Unpledged
o   Frieda Wallison, Romney
·         Congressional District 4
o   Guy Short, Unpledged
o   Sean Conway, Santorum
o   Karen Pelzer, Unpledged
·         Congressional District 5
o   John Suthers, Romney
o   Robin Coran, Santorum
o   Kent Lambert, Santorum
·         Congressional District 6
o   John Carson, Romney
o   Ted Harvey, Unpledged
o   Erik Hansen, Romney
·         Congressional District 7
o   Pete Coors, Romney
o   Anil Mathai, Santorum
o Jeremy Strand, Unpledged

Alternate Delegates to the Republican National Convention:
·         Congressional District 1
o   Earl Bandy III, Unpledged
o   Elizabeth Buchanan, Unpledged
o   David Bittner, Paul
·         Congressional District 2
o   Jon Warnick, Unpledged
o   Bryce Carlson, Romney
o   Kaye Ferry, Romney
·         Congressional District 3
o   Nancy Carlson, Romney
o   Michelle Gilleland, Romney
o   Barbara Smith, Romney
·         Congressional District 4
o   Kendal Unruh, Unpledged
o   Jim Gaston, Unpledged
o   Justin Williams, Romney
·         Congressional District 5
o   Robert Balink, Romney
o   Charles Aligaen, Paul
o   Joseph Burke, Paul
·         Congressional District 6
o   Glenn Hagen, Romney
o   Ryan Massfeller, Romney
o   Jeff Wasden, Romney
·         Congressional District 7
o   Lloyd Garcia, Unpledged
o   Libby Szabo, Unpledged
o   Robert Eskenberry, Paul

[Minnesota Mike]

  It would not let me post a link to the gop site directly (too much lurking and not enough posting).

District assembly results

Santorum 6
Romney 5
Paul 0
Uncommitted 9

Though the alternates are majority Romney
Romney 10, Paul 4, Santorum 0, Uncommited 7

After listening to Paul supporters at work say they were going to claim a majority of the districts in Colorado, this has to be a setback.

Delegates to the Republican National Convention:
·         Congressional District 1
o   Nancy McKiernanm, Santorum
o   Celement Koerber Jr., Unpledged
o   Florence Sebern, Unpledged
·         Congressional District 2
o   Timothy Leonard, Unpledged
o   Sue Sharkey, Santorum
o   Solomon Martinez, Unpledged
·         Congressional District 3
o   Todd King, Unpledged
o   Luke Kirk, Unpledged
o   Frieda Wallison, Romney
·         Congressional District 4
o   Guy Short, Unpledged
o   Sean Conway, Santorum
o   Karen Pelzer, Unpledged
·         Congressional District 5
o   John Suthers, Romney
o   Robin Coran, Santorum
o   Kent Lambert, Santorum
·         Congressional District 6
o   John Carson, Romney
o   Ted Harvey, Unpledged
o   Erik Hansen, Romney
·         Congressional District 7
o   Pete Coors, Romney
o   Anil Mathai, Santorum
o Jeremy Strand, Unpledged

Alternate Delegates to the Republican National Convention:
·         Congressional District 1
o   Earl Bandy III, Unpledged
o   Elizabeth Buchanan, Unpledged
o   David Bittner, Paul
·         Congressional District 2
o   Jon Warnick, Unpledged
o   Bryce Carlson, Romney
o   Kaye Ferry, Romney
·         Congressional District 3
o   Nancy Carlson, Romney
o   Michelle Gilleland, Romney
o   Barbara Smith, Romney
·         Congressional District 4
o   Kendal Unruh, Unpledged
o   Jim Gaston, Unpledged
o   Justin Williams, Romney
·         Congressional District 5
o   Robert Balink, Romney
o   Charles Aligaen, Paul
o   Joseph Burke, Paul
·         Congressional District 6
o   Glenn Hagen, Romney
o   Ryan Massfeller, Romney
o   Jeff Wasden, Romney
·         Congressional District 7
o   Lloyd Garcia, Unpledged
o   Libby Szabo, Unpledged
o   Robert Eskenberry, Paul

FWIW if you can believe anything on the internet about Ron Paul the Vast majority of uncommitted delegates are for Paul. Secret Ninja Delegates to the end I guess.