The Delegate Fight: 2012

[Erc]

That's a breakdown of

Santorum - 6
Romney - 5
Uncommitted - 10

I had predicted, based on the caucus results, a breakdown of

Santorum - 12
Romney - 8
Paul - 1

Overall, not such a great result for the presumptive nominee.  Presumably those 'unpledged' delegates will break overwhelmingly for him, and at least Gingrich is showing no signs of life.

[Erc]

Of the 10 Uncommitted delegates, the Paul people are claiming at least 7.

Through the FEC, Facebook, and media reports, I can confirm that at least 5 are in the Paul camp:

Timothy Leonard
Todd King
Jeremy Strand
Luke Kirk
Florence Sebern

The Paul folks also claim:
Solomon Martinez (Chairman, Northern Colorado Hispanic Republicans)
Karen Pelzer (while definitely possible, she seems far more Tea Party than Paulista)

They think they may have Ted Harvey (though the media has quoted him as definitely being uncommitted), and they do not claim Guy Short (formerly in the Bachmann camp) or Clement Koerber.


All in all, relatively impressive showing by the Paul camp, considering I'd only predicted one delegate for them.

[Erc]

Romney had a slightly better day today at the Colorado State Convention, picking up 8 out of 12 delegates.

Apparently, there had been significant Santorum/Paul collusion at the CD conventions, which took the Romney camp by surprise; they seemed to have recovered by today's convention, however.

In summary:

At the CD Conventions:

Paul: 9
Santorum: 6
Romney: 5
Uncommitted: 1

(This may overstate Paul's showing somewhat; some of them may be Santorum supporters who listed themselves as Unpledged instead)

At the State Convention:

Romney: 8
Others: 4

It's not clear who the other 4 are at the moment.

[Erc]

As expected, Romney swept the Wyoming State Convention today.

[Erc]

Although it's clear that Romney still has some work to do winning over the hearts and minds of the Republican base (as evidenced by his relatively poor showing in Colorado this weekend), it is also clear that Romney has no serious opposition in the remaining primaries.  Gingrich is showing no signs of life (having been relegated to 'joke candidate' status a while back and completely buried in debt), and Paul still has a pretty hard ceiling, even if he might pick up a few anti-Romney protest votes.

There may be some surprises left in store for us at future State Conventions, but, as in Colorado this weekend, they will be largely Paulista affairs.  While amusing, I have no particular interest in documenting those quixotic endeavors when the final outcome of the process is no longer in doubt.

As such, unless there is significant popular demand, I will no longer be maintaining this thread.  Congratulations to Mitt Romney on (finally) becoming the presumptive nominee.

The Delegate Fight will return for Season 3 in December 2015, (hopefully) featuring two exciting and competitive contests for the parties' nominations.

[jmc247]

Although it's clear that Romney still has some work to do winning over the hearts and minds of the Republican base (as evidenced by his relatively poor showing in Colorado this weekend), it is also clear that Romney has no serious opposition in the remaining primaries.  Gingrich is showing no signs of life (having been relegated to 'joke candidate' status a while back and completely buried in debt), and Paul still has a pretty hard ceiling, even if he might pick up a few anti-Romney protest votes.

There may be some surprises left in store for us at future State Conventions, but, as in Colorado this weekend, they will be largely Paulista affairs.  While amusing, I have no particular interest in documenting those quixotic endeavors when the final outcome of the process is no longer in doubt.

As such, unless there is significant popular demand, I will no longer be maintaining this thread.  Congratulations to Mitt Romney on (finally) becoming the presumptive nominee.

The Delegate Fight will return for Season 3 in December 2015, (hopefully) featuring two exciting and competitive contests for the parties' nominations.

I will give you a hand if you want to see it through to the end.

What state conventions awarding delegates are left for April and May?

As for Penn. when will the delegates be decided?

[firennice]

I would like to know what is going on as well.  We get too much of nothing from many people.  Having a place to find the info is nice.

[Erc]

In Minnesota, Paul has swept the conventions in CDs 3, 5, and 6, winning all 9 delegates at stake.  I had projected Santorum - 5, Paul - 3, Romney - 1 in those districts.

[jmc247]

In Minnesota, Paul has swept the conventions in CDs 3, 5, and 6, winning all 9 delegates at stake.  I had projected Santorum - 5, Paul - 3, Romney - 1 in those districts.

What state conventions in April and May are coming up where delegates will be decided?

[Mr. Morden]

Erc, if you like I can unsticky the thread.

[Erc]

Erc, if you like I can unsticky the thread.

That'd probably be best.  I may still post in it from time to time, but the front page won't be updated.

[Erc]

In Missouri's CD caucuses today, Romney won 12 delegates, Santorum 7, Paul 4, and Gingrich 1.  Three of the four Paul delegates came from CD 5 (Kansas City), where the Paulistas were apparently able to dominate; the other was from CD 1.

In Minnesota's CD conventions, which finished today, Paul all but swept, winning 20 of 24 delegates.  Of the four he did not win, 2 were in CD 7 (held before Santorum dropping out).

Details can be found on The Green Papers.

[A cowboy always follows his beard]

Why isn't this nailed to the top anymore?

[Erc]

April 24 Results:

Connecticut

Romney won all 25 delegates.

Delaware

Romney won all 17 delegates.

New York

Romney won all 92 delegates.

Rhode Island

Romney won 12 delegates; Ron Paul, the only other candidate to meet the 15% threshold, won 4.

Pennsylvania

All delegates are unbound and presumably most will end up supporting Romney at the convention.  As for their personal preferences (as of March), I can confirm

Romney - 13
Paul - 3
Santorum -3
Gingrich - 3
Uncommitted - 37

[Erc]

With Gingrich soon to be out of the race, the only folks left tilting at windmills are the Paulistas.

Is there anything of any interest in the next month?

This Saturday features the Louisiana caucuses; if any results are reported, we should get some idea of how well Romney is shoring up support in a state he lost last month.

The following Saturday is the Minnesota State Convention, which will be entirely dominated by Paulistas.  Also that weekend is the Maine State Convention, where Paulista success is less certain.

The rest of May features many primaries, many of which are in states which would not favor Romney were this still an active race; it may be interesting to see how much of an anti-Romney protest vote is scattered among the candidates on the ballot.

[Beet]

Ron Paul claims 16 of 19 delegates in Massachusetts:

"Paul national campaign chairman Jesse Benton told The Daily Caller that Paul supporters occupy 16 of 19 delegate slots filled in congressional district selection processes.

“They are bound to Romney but support Ron,” said Benton. The effect of this coup isn’t immediately clear.

..

Policymic reports that at Massachusetts’ 1st Congressional District’s caucus this Saturday, Romney supporters “made emotional, often angry, and desperate pleas for party unity.”

“An older woman specifically called out the Ron Paul supporters, accusing them of undermining the democratic process,” according to Policymic."

Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2012/04/29/ron-paul-supported-by-16-massachusetts-delegates-says-campaign/#ixzz1tUhuXCPT"

[Lief]

Man, if this thing had gone to a second ballot, Paul might have actually had a chance of winning.

[Beet]

What if the bound delegates abstain? Does the candidate need only a majority of the delegates that voted, or a majority of all delegates present?

[Jbrase]

I believe if enough the bound delegates supporting Paul abstain on the first ballot, which they should be allowed to, then it would go to the second where they are free to vote for whoever.

[crypto-fascist superhero]

They won't do a roll-call vote, they'll have Romney "nominated by acclamation" and cut the audio from the floor.

[Beet]

They won't do a roll-call vote, they'll have Romney "nominated by acclamation" and cut the audio from the floor.

Ah, those sneaky bastards. Always out to undermine democracy.

[Erc]

Ron Paul claims 16 of 19 delegates in Massachusetts:

"Paul national campaign chairman Jesse Benton told The Daily Caller that Paul supporters occupy 16 of 19 delegate slots filled in congressional district selection processes.

“They are bound to Romney but support Ron,” said Benton. The effect of this coup isn’t immediately clear.

..

Policymic reports that at Massachusetts’ 1st Congressional District’s caucus this Saturday, Romney supporters “made emotional, often angry, and desperate pleas for party unity.”

“An older woman specifically called out the Ron Paul supporters, accusing them of undermining the democratic process,” according to Policymic."

Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2012/04/29/ron-paul-supported-by-16-massachusetts-delegates-says-campaign/#ixzz1tUhuXCPT"

Well, we've only got ourselves to blame for this one.  Guess I shoulda tried to figure out the actual process here in Massachusetts and turned out for Mitt.

As for what happens at the convention...Paul (and Romney) did get a couple votes at the Convention in 2008; McCain wasn't nominated by acclamation.  Of course, it was only a handful for Paul last time, not O(100)...

[Lief]

NV: Paul 22, Romney 3, 3 RNC people, though they are bound to vote Romney 20, Paul 8.

Paul has also won a "majority" of Maine's 15 at-large delegates, but I don't know what the exact breakdown is.

[Lief]

Reports (from Ron Paul people) is that they have in fact won all of Maine's delegates.

[Erc]

Reports (from Ron Paul people) is that they have in fact won all of Maine's delegates.

Media reports indicate Paul won all (or all but 1) of Maine's delegates (excepting the RNC members); they may also throw out the State Chairman and pick up an additional unpledged delegate.

Contrary to what I thought, Minnesota's State Convention was not this past weekend, but is two weeks from now.  Not that the outcome (a massive Paulista majority) is at all in doubt.