The Delegate Fight: 2012

[Lief 🗽]

CNN seems to believe one of the RNC members from Iowa has already endorsed Santorum---once I verify this, I will include it in my totals.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0711/58874.html

[Lief 🗽]

But the RNC could presumably un-sanction them, as was done by the DNC with Florida and Michigan in 2008.

[Lief 🗽]

A lot of these "super-delegates" have to pledge themselves to the winner of the state primary/caucus, though if there is indeed a brokered convention, they're presumably allowed to vote for whoever they want on the second ballot.

[Lief 🗽]

Santorum is currently at 46% of the straw poll vote in MN. If he wins a majority of delegates to the state convention, could his delegates make it a winner-take-all state, by changing the delegate allocation rules by a majority vote?

[Lief 🗽]

The conventions could turn out to be really fun. You could see weird things like Paul and Santorum delegates aligning to shut out Mitt Romney (or Newt + Rick in CO).

[Lief 🗽]

It's times like these I wish the forum had a "like" button.

[Lief 🗽]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So basically if a district splits 60%-20%-20%, its delegates are split evenly. What a dumb system.

[Lief 🗽]

If Dick Morris says that Romney will end up with 1298 delegates, then either Romney isn't getting a majority or we're in for a "broken clock" scenario.

[Lief 🗽]

I think a lot of Torie's numbers are premature until we get more concrete information from the caucus state conventions. Romney is likely to lose a fair number of delegates from the current estimates.

[Lief 🗽]

Washington, Iowa, Colorado, and Maine are the main states where Romney is likely to do worse than media estimates, and he could lose 50+ delegates between all of those.

[Lief 🗽]

Plus it's very likely that Florida will be made proportional, which means Romney loses another 25 delegates from the current estimates. (Possibly Arizona as well)

[Lief 🗽]

I'm sure Romney really wants to build his delegate majority on illegal delegations. That'll go over real well with Santorum/Gingrich/Paul supporters.

[Lief 🗽]

Erc, I don't think you're reading the rules right. The delegates that would have gone to candidate who did not meet the threshold become uncommitted. It should be Santorum 10, Romney 5, Uncommitted 5 (+5).

[Lief 🗽]

That's disgusting...

[Lief 🗽]

Man, if this thing had gone to a second ballot, Paul might have actually had a chance of winning.

[Lief 🗽]

NV: Paul 22, Romney 3, 3 RNC people, though they are bound to vote Romney 20, Paul 8.

Paul has also won a "majority" of Maine's 15 at-large delegates, but I don't know what the exact breakdown is.

[Lief 🗽]

Reports (from Ron Paul people) is that they have in fact won all of Maine's delegates.