The Delegate Fight: 2012

[Yelnoc]

This should be stickied.

Seconded.

Erc, what is your source for the number of delegates each state has?

[Yelnoc]

They are semi-meaningless and semi-meaningful Bush.  The tally coming out of Iowa is essentially a straw poll, but it will mirror the composition of the caucus goers who will be selecting delegates to the county conventions in March.  Those delegates won't be bound to support in March those who they support now (which is why Iowa will not be penalized for going early) but likely will unless their candidate has dropped out by then.

Almost like the General Election on November 6 chooses the Electors who will officially cast their vote for President a few weeks later, should be the same, but they are free to change their mind as in 2004 when one Minnesota Elector defected and voted for John Edwards.  Is that basically the same idea?

Similar.  However, many states bind their electors to the popular vote, so they electoral college does not have nearly as much leeway as the Iowa delegates.  Also, the electors do not have to worry about their favored candidate not being around when the voting occurs (unless he dies, which would be a legal nightmare- this actually happened in 1872 when Greeley died in December, before the electoral college met, but because he lost in a landslide to Grant, it did not matter).  Paul could win Iowa, but be out by the convention.

[Yelnoc]

A question, are these contests using the old or new CD maps?

[Yelnoc]

A question, are these contests using the old or new CD maps?

Each state is entitled to 3 delegates per CD based on the 2010 census reapportionment.  Whether that means they actually use the new boundaries precisely or not is going to vary from state to state, depending on the progress of redistricting, whether it's a caucus or a primary, etc.

Some states are smart and provide for this uncertainty (e.g. Ohio has provisions to just use the old boundaries with 2 delegates a piece, with the rest WTA, if they lost representatives and redistricting wasn't finished yet---ultimately unnecessary, as they have finished redistricting), while others haven't.  In less prepared states, this may be up for a challenge at the credentials committee if it should make a difference.

If this thing goes to the convention, the GOP nomination will be bogged down for days in the credentials committee, won't it?

[Yelnoc]

Plus it's very likely that Florida will be made proportional, which means Romney loses another 25 delegates from the current estimates. (Possibly Arizona as well)

No, that will never happen, unless the non-Mittens get a majority without having done that, in which event it will be moot.

Are you sure?  What would it take for the Santorum people to mount a credentials challenge of Florida at the convention?

[Yelnoc]

Isn't the majority 1144 rather than 1044?

[Yelnoc]

When's the Texas Primary? I just got my voter thing in the mail so I want an answer.

Yo, bro, maybe you should read the OP.

[Yelnoc]

When's the Texas Primary? I just got my voter thing in the mail so I want an answer.

Yo, bro, maybe you should read the OP.

It wasn't mentioned in the OP.

Did you look?  Because there was a link at the bottom to the Full Calendar.