The Delegate Fight: 2012

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

They are semi-meaningless and semi-meaningful Bush.  The tally coming out of Iowa is essentially a straw poll, but it will mirror the composition of the caucus goers who will be selecting delegates to the county conventions in March.  Those delegates won't be bound to support in March those who they support now (which is why Iowa will not be penalized for going early) but likely will unless their candidate has dropped out by then.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Here's an intriguing bit that might just matter. Florida's rules call for it to be statewide WTA only if they get sanctioned, so they'd revert to the statewide + CD rule if they are not.  If the winner gets 14 or fewer of the 27 CD's and the second place finisher gets the other 13 or more, then a reversion to being unsanctioned results in a net improvement in the delegate totals for the second place finisher.  Now unless the statewide winner has his vote concentrated in only a few CDs this likely won't matter much, but if every delegate counts, it could.

If Santorum drops out after a Newt win tonight, it looks like Florida will be a close battle.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

But the RNC could presumably un-sanction them, as was done by the DNC with Florida and Michigan in 2008.

Exactly, and my point was that because of the difference in how the delegates are awarded in the two cases, the second place finisher could be the one to want Florida desanctioned.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Here's an intriguing bit that might just matter. Florida's rules call for it to be statewide WTA only if they get sanctioned, so they'd revert to the statewide + CD rule if they are not.  If the winner gets 14 or fewer of the 27 CD's and the second place finisher gets the other 13 or more, then a reversion to being unsanctioned results in a net improvement in the delegate totals for the second place finisher.  Now unless the statewide winner has his vote concentrated in only a few CDs this likely won't matter much, but if every delegate counts, it could.

If Santorum drops out after a Newt win tonight, it looks like Florida will be a close battle.

Aren't they supposed to be proportional because they're an early state?

I think the case is that if they had gone when they were supposed to, they would be sanctioned if they didn't apportion some of the delegates by CD, but since they are already being sanctioned for going early, they don't face a second sanction for assigning them by statewide WTA.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Beaufort County is actually in CD-2 now, isn't it? I don't know that anybody's calling CD-1 at the moment.

No, Beaufort was in the 2nd.  It's now split between the 1st and 6th.