The Delegate Fight: 2012

[Matthew]

I'd bet that Romney takes quite a few of Pauls delegates away. Wouldn't suprise me if Santorum loses some too with those organizional problems.

[Matthew]

I need help looking for a Congressional District breakdown of the results from Ohio. Especially districts 6, 9 and 13.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ohio_Congressional_Districts

[Matthew]

based on that map, a rough guess
Santorum 5, 6, 15, 2, 4, 12, 7
Romney 8th*, 9, 11, 13, 3, 14, 10, 1, 16
http://www.google.com/elections/ed/us/results
8-Butler has 2,665 more votes for romney, while not even half of mercer is within the 8th. If it was santorum would take it, but unlikely.

Santorum doesn't get the 6th, 9th or 13th. Good thing Romney got the 9th and 13th anyways.

Santorum 18(would be 21)
Romney 27

At large
Romney 8
Santorum 7

For a total of
So Romney 8+27=35
Santorum 7+18=25

[Matthew]

I think a lot of Torie's numbers are premature until we get more concrete information from the caucus state conventions. Romney is likely to lose a fair number of delegates from the current estimates.

Santorum is just as open to Ron Paul stealing his soft delegates. Missouri, Minnesota are two states that Santorum could lose as many if not more then Romney.

[Matthew]

Santorum Loses Wyoming Delegate to Romney  by: Oreo
Tue Mar 20, 2012 at 15:37:06 PM EDT
 
Mitt Romney's supporters in Wyoming have successfully challenged a delegate to the party's national convention that had been awarded to rival Rick Santorum — showing the lengths the campaigns are willing to go to fight over a single delegate.
State GOP Chairwoman Tammy Hooper said Tuesday the delegate is now awarded to Romney. - US News
 
http://www.democraticconventionwatch.com/diary/5239/santorum-loses-wyoming-delegate-to-romney