hypothetical LA scenario

[freepcrusher]

i know that due to slow population growth, one of the LA County districts will have to be collapsed. I did a hypothetical CA map right here. On this map, who would run where and who would be the "odd man out"?



My guess is that with the district shifting further into San Bernardino County, Dreier would run in CD 28 which would be 40.5% Hispanic and 40.2% White. McCain won the district by 26 votes so he would probably be safe there

Gary Miller would probably run in CD 38. It is 48.5 percent hispanic and 25.1 percent white. It gave Obama 57.7 percent of the vote and he would have maybe a longshot chance of winning here. It looks similar to the old CA 33 of the 80s

District 37 would be 40.7 percent hispanic and 28.2 percent white. It looks similar to the old CD 38 of the 90s. My guess is Linda Sanchez would run here.

District 35 takes in San Pedro, Downey, Carson, Compton, Lynwood etc. This would be a 63.5 percent hispanic seat. My guess is that Laura Richardson runs here.

District 32 looks to be mostly Waters seat (80%) and the rest belonging to Bass and would be 55% Hispanic, 31% Black.

District 29 is where it gets tricky. The district is roughly half Waxman's and half Bass's. It is 39 percent white, 28 percent hispanic and 17 percent black. Waxman represented a minority majority district in the 70s and 80s so he might run there. On the other hand its possible Bass would run in the 32nd even though it only contains about a fifth of her old district because it has as huge black voting age population and she might be favored to win the primary due to Waters' corruption.

Who would do what in these circumstances?

[freepcrusher]

no thoughts here?

[jimrtex]

no thoughts here?

It violates the Constitution to consider existing districts, since that would have the purpose of favoring or disfavoring an incumbent.

[freepcrusher]

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It violates the Constitution to consider existing districts, since that would have the purpose of favoring or disfavoring an incumbent.

It doesn't violate the constitution. The districts represented by Gary Miller (a republican) and Linda Sanchez (a democrat) are vaporized.

[jimrtex]

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It violates the Constitution to consider existing districts, since that would have the purpose of favoring or disfavoring an incumbent.

It doesn't violate the constitution. The districts represented by Gary Miller (a republican) and Linda Sanchez (a democrat) are vaporized.

It violates the California constitution to even consider elections.

[muon2]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It violates the Constitution to consider existing districts, since that would have the purpose of favoring or disfavoring an incumbent.

It doesn't violate the constitution. The districts represented by Gary Miller (a republican) and Linda Sanchez (a democrat) are vaporized.

It violates the California constitution to even consider elections.

except where the VRA may be a factor.