Holden vs. Santorum

[J. J.]

You also have to remember that Santorum defeated an exceptionally liberal candidate, Harris Wofford, in 1994.

[nclib]

CNN has a map:  http://us.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/PA/S/01/index.html
My remark was mostly hyperbole: Hoeffel did pretty badly everywhere. He won a grand total of four counties... although he did win 71% in Philly.

CNN's maps are hard to tell the slightly Democratic counties from the slightly Republican ones. Hoeffel won Philly, Allegheny, and where else?

[nclib]

You also have to remember that Santorum defeated an exceptionally liberal candidate, Harris Wofford, in 1994.

1994 is not a good year to use as an example since it was so strongly GOP.

[danwxman]

CNN has a map:  http://us.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/PA/S/01/index.html
My remark was mostly hyperbole: Hoeffel did pretty badly everywhere. He won a grand total of four counties... although he did win 71% in Philly.

CNN's maps are hard to tell the slightly Democratic counties from the slightly Republican ones. Hoeffel won Philly, Allegheny, and where else?

Beaver and Fayette. I would have expected him to win Fayette, but Beaver is rather odd.

[Keystone Phil]

Klink lost just because he was an overall poor candidate who ran a lousy campaign. It's possible to beat Santorum with different types of candidates who can appeal to different areas. Just beat him.

I'll say this all the way up to election day in 2006: The only way you can beat Santorum in two years is if Casey is the nominee. Run a liberal like Hafer or Hoeffel and get six more years of Santorum. Let me state that I really hope that PA Dems decide either of those two (or maybe another more liberal candidate) would be best as their nominee.

[RomneyGekko Situation Hairgel]

CNN has a map:  http://us.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/PA/S/01/index.html
My remark was mostly hyperbole: Hoeffel did pretty badly everywhere. He won a grand total of four counties... although he did win 71% in Philly.

CNN's maps are hard to tell the slightly Democratic counties from the slightly Republican ones. Hoeffel won Philly, Allegheny, and where else?

Beaver and Fayette. I would have expected him to win Fayette, but Beaver is rather odd.

If the Republican were Santorum, I would expect Hoeffel to add Montgomery, Bucks, Delaware, and Lackawanna at the very least in 2006.  You may also include Chester, Luzerne, Carbon, Monroe, Lehigh, Northampton, a possibly one or two more around Pittsburgh.

[danwxman]

Yea, for a social liberal Hoeffel actually did pretty well in SWPA. He picked up more counties in SWPA then in the Southeast. I imagine the fact that Specter is also from the Southeast kept his numbers down.

[Keystone Phil]

CNN has a map:  http://us.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/PA/S/01/index.html
My remark was mostly hyperbole: Hoeffel did pretty badly everywhere. He won a grand total of four counties... although he did win 71% in Philly.

CNN's maps are hard to tell the slightly Democratic counties from the slightly Republican ones. Hoeffel won Philly, Allegheny, and where else?

Beaver and Fayette. I would have expected him to win Fayette, but Beaver is rather odd.

  You may also include Chester

Santorum received about 65% of the vote in Chester in 2000. Keep dreaming...

[RomneyGekko Situation Hairgel]

Yea, for a social liberal Hoeffel actually did pretty well in SWPA. He picked up more counties in SWPA then in the Southeast. I imagine the fact that Specter is also from the Southeast kept his numbers down.

I know people are saying CASEY! CASEY!, but the thing is Hoeffel got a lot fo name rec in SWPA and SEPA felt Hoeffel was a good candidate, btu liek Specter's seniority.  Hoeffel could actually raise more money than Casey due to the pro-choice groups.  I have a feeling that even though Casey is pro-life, the groups would still contribute to Santorum.  Keystone, case and point about never underestimating pro-choice money that even I learned this election: ALLYSON SCHWARTZ!  Minus EMILY's List and NARAL, Schwartz would have been pulverized by Joe Torsella and possibly Melissa Brown.

[RomneyGekko Situation Hairgel]

CNN has a map:  http://us.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/PA/S/01/index.html
My remark was mostly hyperbole: Hoeffel did pretty badly everywhere. He won a grand total of four counties... although he did win 71% in Philly.

CNN's maps are hard to tell the slightly Democratic counties from the slightly Republican ones. Hoeffel won Philly, Allegheny, and where else?

Beaver and Fayette. I would have expected him to win Fayette, but Beaver is rather odd.

  You may also include Chester

Santorum received about 65% of the vote in Chester in 2000. Keep dreaming...

Won Montgomery as well in 2000 under the guise of a moderate and a weakling Dem in Ron Klink.  Chester actually has about a 40% chance of voting Hoeffel due to Rendell turnout plus the fact Santorum is known as hard right. 

[Keystone Phil]

Yea, for a social liberal Hoeffel actually did pretty well in SWPA. He picked up more counties in SWPA then in the Southeast. I imagine the fact that Specter is also from the Southeast kept his numbers down.

  Keystone, case and point about never underestimating pro-choice money that even I learned this election: ALLYSON SCHWARTZ!  Minus EMILY's List and NARAL, Schwartz would have been pulverized by Joe Torsella and possibly Melissa Brown.

Without that money, Schwartz would have been seriously weakened. I'd love for her to run for Senate against Santorum. All the money in the world wouldn't help her win that race. It would be great!

[J. J.]

You also have to remember that Santorum defeated an exceptionally liberal candidate, Harris Wofford, in 1994.

1994 is not a good year to use as an example since it was so strongly GOP.

Well, we don't have too many to go by.  Wofford, in terms of geography and ideology is the closest to Hoffel.  And Wofford was an incumbent, associated with national issues that were big in 1992 (Health Care).  Santorum was not a major figgure at the time.  

Santorum has a lot of appeal to the median PA voter.

[RomneyGekko Situation Hairgel]

Yea, for a social liberal Hoeffel actually did pretty well in SWPA. He picked up more counties in SWPA then in the Southeast. I imagine the fact that Specter is also from the Southeast kept his numbers down.

  Keystone, case and point about never underestimating pro-choice money that even I learned this election: ALLYSON SCHWARTZ!  Minus EMILY's List and NARAL, Schwartz would have been pulverized by Joe Torsella and possibly Melissa Brown.

Without that money, Schwartz would have been seriously weakened. I'd love for her to run for Senate against Santorum. All the money in the world wouldn't help her win that race. It would be great!

I think the money from the corporate-religilous right has helped Santorum out a lot as well.  Without that, he'd have serious problems.

[Keystone Phil]

CNN has a map:  http://us.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/PA/S/01/index.html
My remark was mostly hyperbole: Hoeffel did pretty badly everywhere. He won a grand total of four counties... although he did win 71% in Philly.

CNN's maps are hard to tell the slightly Democratic counties from the slightly Republican ones. Hoeffel won Philly, Allegheny, and where else?

Beaver and Fayette. I would have expected him to win Fayette, but Beaver is rather odd.

  You may also include Chester

Santorum received about 65% of the vote in Chester in 2000. Keep dreaming...

Won Montgomery as well in 2000 under the guise of a moderate and a weakling Dem in Ron Klink.  Chester actually has about a 40% chance of voting Hoeffel due to Rendell turnout plus the fact Santorum is known as hard right. 

You can't compare Montco and Chester. Just the fact that Chester is more conservative than Montco shows the argument that Santorum can lose Chester is weak. I can almost guarentee that a county that Santorum won with 65% of the vote will not swing in 2006 even with Rendell on the ballot (By the way, Rendell seems to be the only Dem candidate that Chester county likes).

[Keystone Phil]

Yea, for a social liberal Hoeffel actually did pretty well in SWPA. He picked up more counties in SWPA then in the Southeast. I imagine the fact that Specter is also from the Southeast kept his numbers down.

  Keystone, case and point about never underestimating pro-choice money that even I learned this election: ALLYSON SCHWARTZ!  Minus EMILY's List and NARAL, Schwartz would have been pulverized by Joe Torsella and possibly Melissa Brown.

Without that money, Schwartz would have been seriously weakened. I'd love for her to run for Senate against Santorum. All the money in the world wouldn't help her win that race. It would be great!

I think the money from the corporate-religilous right has helped Santorum out a lot as well.  Without that, he'd have serious problems.

Santorum connects with the voters of PA. The money helps Santorum, of course, but I don't see him with any "serious problems" without it.

[RomneyGekko Situation Hairgel]

CNN has a map:  http://us.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/PA/S/01/index.html
My remark was mostly hyperbole: Hoeffel did pretty badly everywhere. He won a grand total of four counties... although he did win 71% in Philly.

CNN's maps are hard to tell the slightly Democratic counties from the slightly Republican ones. Hoeffel won Philly, Allegheny, and where else?

Beaver and Fayette. I would have expected him to win Fayette, but Beaver is rather odd.

  You may also include Chester

Santorum received about 65% of the vote in Chester in 2000. Keep dreaming...

Won Montgomery as well in 2000 under the guise of a moderate and a weakling Dem in Ron Klink.  Chester actually has about a 40% chance of voting Hoeffel due to Rendell turnout plus the fact Santorum is known as hard right. 

You can't compare Montco and Chester. Just the fact that Chester is more conservative than Montco shows the argument that Santorum can lose Chester is weak. I can almost guarentee that a county that Santorum won with 65% of the vote will not swing in 2006 even with Rendell on the ballot (By the way, Rendell seems to be the only Dem candidate that Chester county likes).

Keystone, in all likelyhood Santorum IS losing Montgomery.  Also, Chester will be much closer than in 2000.  I'm thinking maybe 54-56% instead of 65%.  Remeber they almost elected Lois Murphy and Kerry barely lost Chesco.  If Hoeffel carries the other 3 suburban counties, he'll be in a good shape.  Carries 2 (loses Bucks, wins Montco and Delco), he can only afford to lose a lttle bit out western PA, which unfortunately, I expect a minor shift towards Santorum.  And believe me, he's lucky it's not a reverse due to the charter school scandal.  I think Hoeffel could carry SEPA strongly enough to win.      

[RomneyGekko Situation Hairgel]

Yea, for a social liberal Hoeffel actually did pretty well in SWPA. He picked up more counties in SWPA then in the Southeast. I imagine the fact that Specter is also from the Southeast kept his numbers down.

  Keystone, case and point about never underestimating pro-choice money that even I learned this election: ALLYSON SCHWARTZ!  Minus EMILY's List and NARAL, Schwartz would have been pulverized by Joe Torsella and possibly Melissa Brown.

Without that money, Schwartz would have been seriously weakened. I'd love for her to run for Senate against Santorum. All the money in the world wouldn't help her win that race. It would be great!

I think the money from the corporate-religilous right has helped Santorum out a lot as well.  Without that, he'd have serious problems.

Santorum connects with the voters of PA. The money helps Santorum, of course, but I don't see him with any "serious problems" without it.

Believe me, US Airways and the charter school scandal will be brought up come 2006.  He will have problems.

[Keystone Phil]

Yea, for a social liberal Hoeffel actually did pretty well in SWPA. He picked up more counties in SWPA then in the Southeast. I imagine the fact that Specter is also from the Southeast kept his numbers down.

  Keystone, case and point about never underestimating pro-choice money that even I learned this election: ALLYSON SCHWARTZ!  Minus EMILY's List and NARAL, Schwartz would have been pulverized by Joe Torsella and possibly Melissa Brown.

Without that money, Schwartz would have been seriously weakened. I'd love for her to run for Senate against Santorum. All the money in the world wouldn't help her win that race. It would be great!

I think the money from the corporate-religilous right has helped Santorum out a lot as well.  Without that, he'd have serious problems.

Santorum connects with the voters of PA. The money helps Santorum, of course, but I don't see him with any "serious problems" without it.

Believe me, US Airways and the charter school scandal will be brought up come 2006.  He will have problems.

It'll be brought up. Santorum will still win and win easily.

[Keystone Phil]

CNN has a map:  http://us.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/PA/S/01/index.html
My remark was mostly hyperbole: Hoeffel did pretty badly everywhere. He won a grand total of four counties... although he did win 71% in Philly.

CNN's maps are hard to tell the slightly Democratic counties from the slightly Republican ones. Hoeffel won Philly, Allegheny, and where else?

Beaver and Fayette. I would have expected him to win Fayette, but Beaver is rather odd.

  You may also include Chester

Santorum received about 65% of the vote in Chester in 2000. Keep dreaming...

Won Montgomery as well in 2000 under the guise of a moderate and a weakling Dem in Ron Klink.  Chester actually has about a 40% chance of voting Hoeffel due to Rendell turnout plus the fact Santorum is known as hard right. 

You can't compare Montco and Chester. Just the fact that Chester is more conservative than Montco shows the argument that Santorum can lose Chester is weak. I can almost guarentee that a county that Santorum won with 65% of the vote will not swing in 2006 even with Rendell on the ballot (By the way, Rendell seems to be the only Dem candidate that Chester county likes).

Keystone, in all likelyhood Santorum IS losing Montgomery.  Also, Chester will be much closer than in 2000.  I'm thinking maybe 54-56% instead of 65%.  Remeber they almost elected Lois Murphy and Kerry barely lost Chesco.  If Hoeffel carries the other 3 suburban counties, he'll be in a good shape.  Carries 2 (loses Bucks, wins Montco and Delco), he can only afford to lose a lttle bit out western PA, which unfortunately, I expect a minor shift towards Santorum.  And believe me, he's lucky it's not a reverse due to the charter school scandal.  I think Hoeffel could carry SEPA strongly enough to win.      

Ok where did I say Santorum would win Montco? That's not part of this conversation.

Murphy was almost elected but only parts of Chester are in PA 6. Chester county as a whole, Murphy would have gotten crushed.

Hoeffel could carry all of SE PA but it would have to be by an incredible margin to beat Santorum. That being said, I don't think that type of incredible margin for Hoeffel in this area will happen.

[nclib]

You also have to remember that Santorum defeated an exceptionally liberal candidate, Harris Wofford, in 1994.

1994 is not a good year to use as an example since it was so strongly GOP.

Well, we don't have too many to go by.  Wofford, in terms of geography and ideology is the closest to Hoffel.  And Wofford was an incumbent, associated with national issues that were big in 1992 (Health Care).  Santorum was not a major figgure at the time.  

Santorum has a lot of appeal to the median PA voter.

Where was Wofford from?

[J. J.]

Where was Wofford from?

Montgomery County, outside of Phila.  That didn't help.

He beat Thornburgh, from Pittsburgh, however.

[Jake]

You may also include Luzerne

The Luzerne County Dems are dead while the GOP organization is the best in the state.  Baring Casey or his brother running, Luzerne County goes Republican.

[RomneyGekko Situation Hairgel]

You may also include Luzerne

The Luzerne County Dems are dead while the GOP organization is the best in the state.  Baring Casey or his brother running, Luzerne County goes Republican.

Kanjorski's home?  It has a shot.

[Keystone Phil]

You may also include Luzerne

The Luzerne County Dems are dead while the GOP organization is the best in the state.  Baring Casey or his brother running, Luzerne County goes Republican.

Kanjorski's home?  It has a shot.

What would Kanjorski's home have to do with this unless he was the candidate?

[Jake]

You may also include Luzerne

The Luzerne County Dems are dead while the GOP organization is the best in the state.  Baring Casey or his brother running, Luzerne County goes Republican.

Kanjorski's home?  It has a shot.

Kanjorski would be elected if he died.  They love the pork he gets for Wilkes Barre.

The reason Hoeffel couldn't get Luzerne is the two Democratic County Commissioners are involved in a scandal where they paid I think, 15 million for a lease to a social services center, when they already had a suitable site to build it for 5 million.  the GOP commissioner is really hitting them over it.  Added to thatis a general distrust among many of the Democrats here after the pitifull mayor and commissioners they had before 2003.  All this results in an extremely inept Luzerne Couunty organization and added to that, the GOP group here is excellant. They have great organization and a good group of volunteers.