Holden vs. Santorum

[RomneyGekko Situation Hairgel]

You may also include Luzerne

The Luzerne County Dems are dead while the GOP organization is the best in the state.  Baring Casey or his brother running, Luzerne County goes Republican.

Kanjorski's home?  It has a shot.

What would Kanjorski's home have to do with this unless he was the candidate?

My point is Kanjorski can stump for Hoeffel and it would help.  A good part of why I have a Dem avatar and am registered as such is due to state and national politics.  At the local level, both parties suck and are corrupt jackasses with minor exceptions.  As Jake points out that the Dems look bad locally.  IHMO, that usually doesn't translate at the national level.   

[Keystone Phil]

You may also include Luzerne

The Luzerne County Dems are dead while the GOP organization is the best in the state.  Baring Casey or his brother running, Luzerne County goes Republican.

Kanjorski's home?  It has a shot.

What would Kanjorski's home have to do with this unless he was the candidate?

My point is Kanjorski can stump for Hoeffel and it would help.  A good part of why I have a Dem avatar and am registered as such is due to state and national politics.  At the local level, both parties suck and are corrupt jackasses with minor exceptions.  As Jake points out that the Dems look bad locally.  IHMO, that usually doesn't translate at the national level.   

Kanjorski stumping for Hoeffel wouldn't do much. Hoeffel will not be elected to the U.S. Senate in 2006.

[Jake]

You may also include Luzerne

The Luzerne County Dems are dead while the GOP organization is the best in the state.  Baring Casey or his brother running, Luzerne County goes Republican.

Kanjorski's home?  It has a shot.

What would Kanjorski's home have to do with this unless he was the candidate?

My point is Kanjorski can stump for Hoeffel and it would help.  A good part of why I have a Dem avatar and am registered as such is due to state and national politics.  At the local level, both parties suck and are corrupt jackasses with minor exceptions.  As Jake points out that the Dems look bad locally.  IHMO, that usually doesn't translate at the national level.   

Kanjorski stumping for Hoeffel wouldn't do much. Hoeffel will not be elected to the U.S. Senate in 2006.

Actually Phil, Kanjorski stumping for Hoeffel would be beneficial to Hoeffel. It is much better for someone from the region to stump rather than Jessie Jackson or Hilary Clinton. 

The only NE county I could see going Hoeffel is Lackawanna.  Much better Democratic ground game and slightly more Democratic area.

[Keystone Phil]

You may also include Luzerne

The Luzerne County Dems are dead while the GOP organization is the best in the state.  Baring Casey or his brother running, Luzerne County goes Republican.

Kanjorski's home?  It has a shot.

What would Kanjorski's home have to do with this unless he was the candidate?

My point is Kanjorski can stump for Hoeffel and it would help.  A good part of why I have a Dem avatar and am registered as such is due to state and national politics.  At the local level, both parties suck and are corrupt jackasses with minor exceptions.  As Jake points out that the Dems look bad locally.  IHMO, that usually doesn't translate at the national level.   

Kanjorski stumping for Hoeffel wouldn't do much. Hoeffel will not be elected to the U.S. Senate in 2006.

Actually Phil, Kanjorski stumping for Hoeffel would be beneficial to Hoeffel. It is much better for someone from the region to stump rather than Jessie Jackson or Hilary Clinton. 

I didn't say it wouldn't be beneficial. I just don't think it would translate into a great amount of votes. But just as Kanjorski would help, Clinton might stop here, too. She came this year for Hoeffel (along with Dean) and I'm guessing she'll want to stop down when Santorum's running in two years.

[J. J.]

Kanjorski would be elected if he died.  They love the pork he gets for Wilkes Barre.

The reason Hoeffel couldn't get Luzerne is the two Democratic County Commissioners are involved in a scandal where they paid I think, 15 million for a lease to a social services center, when they already had a suitable site to build it for 5 million.  the GOP commissioner is really hitting them over it.  Added to thatis a general distrust among many of the Democrats here after the pitifull mayor and commissioners they had before 2003.  All this results in an extremely inept Luzerne Couunty organization and added to that, the GOP group here is excellant. They have great organization and a good group of volunteers.

I'd really question how much a local scandal would affect a statewide race, unless it involved the statewide candidate.  It didn't with Preate.

[Jake]

Kanjorski would be elected if he died.  They love the pork he gets for Wilkes Barre.

The reason Hoeffel couldn't get Luzerne is the two Democratic County Commissioners are involved in a scandal where they paid I think, 15 million for a lease to a social services center, when they already had a suitable site to build it for 5 million.  the GOP commissioner is really hitting them over it.  Added to thatis a general distrust among many of the Democrats here after the pitifull mayor and commissioners they had before 2003.  All this results in an extremely inept Luzerne Couunty organization and added to that, the GOP group here is excellant. They have great organization and a good group of volunteers.

I'd really question how much a local scandal would affect a statewide race, unless it involved the statewide candidate.  It didn't with Preate.

I'm talking about how the Democrats are organized. It is a real "head in the butt" mentality with this county's Democrats which affects their organization and gOTV effort.  I was just using the scandal as an example of the disorganization.

[RomneyGekko Situation Hairgel]

You may also include Luzerne

The Luzerne County Dems are dead while the GOP organization is the best in the state.  Baring Casey or his brother running, Luzerne County goes Republican.

Kanjorski's home?  It has a shot.

What would Kanjorski's home have to do with this unless he was the candidate?

My point is Kanjorski can stump for Hoeffel and it would help.  A good part of why I have a Dem avatar and am registered as such is due to state and national politics.  At the local level, both parties suck and are corrupt jackasses with minor exceptions.  As Jake points out that the Dems look bad locally.  IHMO, that usually doesn't translate at the national level.   

Kanjorski stumping for Hoeffel wouldn't do much. Hoeffel will not be elected to the U.S. Senate in 2006.

Actually Phil, Kanjorski stumping for Hoeffel would be beneficial to Hoeffel. It is much better for someone from the region to stump rather than Jessie Jackson or Hilary Clinton. 

I didn't say it wouldn't be beneficial. I just don't think it would translate into a great amount of votes. But just as Kanjorski would help, Clinton might stop here, too. She came this year for Hoeffel (along with Dean) and I'm guessing she'll want to stop down when Santorum's running in two years.

The populist Kanjorski would be needed up along the I-81 corridor bewtween Hazleton and Scranton for Hoeffel to win there.  Dean or Clinton could be very helpful down here though, but I'd recommend they avoid western or NE Pennsylvania. 

[Sibboleth]

Luzerne is a swing county (unless Kanjorski is on the ballot o/c) and local level corruption didn't stop Kerry carrying it in the Presidential election but seeing as in the Senate election, Hoeffel couldn't even carry Lackawanna county...

[danwxman]

Just to comment again on Holden. Harrisburg mayor Stephen Reed, a very popular Democrat (Harrisburg resides in PA-17) has reportedly been offered to run for the U.S. House. This, obviously, would allow Holden to run against Santorum. And it could in fact keep a district that should be an easy Republican pickup once Holden retires an actual competition once again.

[Keystone Phil]

Just to comment again on Holden. Harrisburg mayor Stephen Reed, a very popular Democrat (Harrisburg resides in PA-17) has reportedly been offered to run for the U.S. House. This, obviously, would allow Holden to run against Santorum. And it could in fact keep a district that should be an easy Republican pickup once Holden retires an actual competition once again.

1) I don't think Holden would run for Senate.

2) If he decided to run, he wouldn't win the nomination.

3) Once Holden is done, it goes GOP. I think the people of PA 17 just really like Holden. No other Democrat can match that popularity in that district.

[danwxman]

Just to comment again on Holden. Harrisburg mayor Stephen Reed, a very popular Democrat (Harrisburg resides in PA-17) has reportedly been offered to run for the U.S. House. This, obviously, would allow Holden to run against Santorum. And it could in fact keep a district that should be an easy Republican pickup once Holden retires an actual competition once again.

1) I don't think Holden would run for Senate.

2) If he decided to run, he wouldn't win the nomination.

3) Once Holden is done, it goes GOP. I think the people of PA 17 just really like Holden. No other Democrat can match that popularity in that district.

There are only two Democratic areas in the district -- Schuylkill county and the city of Harrisburg and its surrounding townships. The Hershey/Lebanon areas are immensely Republican, and that is where Reed is pretty popular. You don't know because you don't live here...but Mayor Reed is every bit as popular around here as Rendell is around Philadelphia (and this is a very Republican area, making it more of an odd case). Could the district go Republican? Absolutely...quite likely in fact if Reed doesn't run. But if Reed ran against a weak Republican (or another lightweight like Paterno) he could keep the district Democrat. If they will vote for Holden, they WILL vote for Reed. It's widely known that Reed has been grooming a successor for Mayor recently (Fred Clark).

BTW, if Holden ran against Santorum the Democratic party would be 100% behind him. Trust me.

[Keystone Phil]

Just to comment again on Holden. Harrisburg mayor Stephen Reed, a very popular Democrat (Harrisburg resides in PA-17) has reportedly been offered to run for the U.S. House. This, obviously, would allow Holden to run against Santorum. And it could in fact keep a district that should be an easy Republican pickup once Holden retires an actual competition once again.

1) I don't think Holden would run for Senate.

2) If he decided to run, he wouldn't win the nomination.

3) Once Holden is done, it goes GOP. I think the people of PA 17 just really like Holden. No other Democrat can match that popularity in that district.

There are only two Democratic areas in the district -- Schuylkill county and the city of Harrisburg and its surrounding townships. The Hershey/Lebanon areas are immensely Republican, and that is where Reed is pretty popular. You don't know because you don't live here...but Mayor Reed is every bit as popular around here as Rendell is around Philadelphia (and this is a very Republican area, making it more of an odd case). Could the district go Republican? Absolutely...quite likely in fact if Reed doesn't run. But if Reed ran against a weak Republican (or another lightweight like Paterno) he could keep the district Democrat. If they will vote for Holden, they WILL vote for Reed. It's widely known that Reed has been grooming a successor for Mayor recently (Fred Clark).

BTW, if Holden ran against Santorum the Democratic party would be 100% behind him. Trust me.

I shouldn't say PA 17 is a solid GOP seat when Holden is done. You're right. You know the area better. You know this Reed guy. I disliked it when people tell me about my area and tell me what will happen when they haven't a clue about what happens around here. I'll take your word on him.

However, I will disagree about Holden in a Dem primary. The establishment might give him their support but in a primary against Hafer or Hoeffel, the liberals would be sure to turn out and reject Holden.

[danwxman]

Just to comment again on Holden. Harrisburg mayor Stephen Reed, a very popular Democrat (Harrisburg resides in PA-17) has reportedly been offered to run for the U.S. House. This, obviously, would allow Holden to run against Santorum. And it could in fact keep a district that should be an easy Republican pickup once Holden retires an actual competition once again.

1) I don't think Holden would run for Senate.

2) If he decided to run, he wouldn't win the nomination.

3) Once Holden is done, it goes GOP. I think the people of PA 17 just really like Holden. No other Democrat can match that popularity in that district.

There are only two Democratic areas in the district -- Schuylkill county and the city of Harrisburg and its surrounding townships. The Hershey/Lebanon areas are immensely Republican, and that is where Reed is pretty popular. You don't know because you don't live here...but Mayor Reed is every bit as popular around here as Rendell is around Philadelphia (and this is a very Republican area, making it more of an odd case). Could the district go Republican? Absolutely...quite likely in fact if Reed doesn't run. But if Reed ran against a weak Republican (or another lightweight like Paterno) he could keep the district Democrat. If they will vote for Holden, they WILL vote for Reed. It's widely known that Reed has been grooming a successor for Mayor recently (Fred Clark).

BTW, if Holden ran against Santorum the Democratic party would be 100% behind him. Trust me.

I shouldn't say PA 17 is a solid GOP seat when Holden is done. You're right. You know the area better. You know this Reed guy. I disliked it when people tell me about my area and tell me what will happen when they haven't a clue about what happens around here. I'll take your word on him.

However, I will disagree about Holden in a Dem primary. The establishment might give him their support but in a primary against Hafer or Hoeffel, the liberals would be sure to turn out and reject Holden.

Well, I think you make a good point. The establishment will be behind him, but the voters may not. Holden is socially conservative which will help him in the west, but may hurt him in the east. Nevertheless, he is still opposed to just about every Bush administration policy and he's also quite electable. There was a quote by the PA Democratic leader that Holden is exactly the kind of Democrat the party needs to run, which makes me feel like they are really going to pressure him. I think he'll stay in his safe House seat tho, but we'll see.