HI-Sen: For Hawaii Dems, Unease in An Oasis

[RogueBeaver]

From the NYT. Clear your cache of all NYT stuff for access.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/22/us/politics/hawaii-democrats-are-struggling.html?pagewanted=1

[Meeker]

Their only evidence of trouble or unease is that Abercrombie had a rough first year and Lingle may be able to make the race competitive. Seems like they're reaching for a story.

[ottermax]

Glad they discussed Hawaii, but this may be the only state where he has coattails in 2012...

[Ogre Mage]

The Democrats are now split by an ideologically caustic primary battle between Mr. Case, who presents himself as a moderate in a party that has swung too far to the left, and Representative Mazie K. Hirono.

Given that Sens. Inouye, Akaka, the DSCC and the large majority of the state's powerful unions are backing Hirono, "split" is an odd choice of words.  Case is fighting his upteenth battle against the ruling machine again ... a battle he has almost always lost.

[sg0508]

Meh.  The races could be somewhat competitive, but if Obama breaks 65% here, no way the congressional seats and Senate sell fall under 55%.  Trust me, the polls may look halfway appealing to the GOP, but in the end, the races won't be that competitive. Lingle didn't exactly leave that popular is Governor (I believe).

[Ogre Mage]

Meh.  The races could be somewhat competitive, but if Obama breaks 65% here, no way the congressional seats and Senate sell fall under 55%.  Trust me, the polls may look halfway appealing to the GOP, but in the end, the races won't be that competitive. Lingle didn't exactly leave that popular is Governor (I believe).

Her popularity dropped in her second term over the Superferry debacle, the "Furlough Fridays" controversy in the public schools, her ties to Sarah Palin and nasty fights with the state's unions (union battles are a problem current governor Neil Abercrombie also has).

[SamInTheSouth]

Hawaii is a tough state for the GOP in general.  I believe Lingle was the only Republican governor they ever had.  They've only ever had one Republican Senator and he left office back in the 70s.  I wouldn't rule out the possibility of a Lingle victory, but she is definitely the underdog.

[nkpatel1279]

Lingle-R became governor of blue state(HI) by a narrow to high single digit margin in 2002 similar to Ehrlich-R in MD,Romney-R in MA, Pawlenty-R in MN,Carcieri-R in RI, and Douglas-R in VT.
Lingle-R won re-election in 2006 Dem Wave due to weak Dem Opposition. Had Hirono sought a rematch against Lingle in 2006 I wonder what the outcome be.

[Senator Kalwejt]

Their only evidence of trouble or unease is that Abercrombie had a rough first year and Lingle may be able to make the race competitive. Seems like they're reaching for a story.

In a year with Obama at top of the ballot? No way.

[Keystone Phil]

MSNBC, of all sources, just called Hawaii a toss up race. What the hell?

[bgwah]

I think the Democrats will probably win but it's worth keeping an eye on. I mean, who would've thought we'd get Begich in Alaska?

[Keystone Phil]

I think the Democrats will probably win but it's worth keeping an eye on. I mean, who would've thought we'd get Begich in Alaska?

Yeah but even in a bad year, this is Hawaii and Obama isn't going to get dangerously unpopular there.

[sg0508]

The AK deal was in a very democratic year where the GOP got it's hands tied behind its back.  The democrats are far, far smarter in choosing the right candidates for each state than the GOP.  The GOP typically tries to shove round pegs into square holes and then scratches it's head or politics us with the "wasn't conservative enough" bulls..t when it doesn't work.

[bgwah]

I think the Democrats will probably win but it's worth keeping an eye on. I mean, who would've thought we'd get Begich in Alaska?

Yeah but even in a bad year, this is Hawaii and Obama isn't going to get dangerously unpopular there.

Oh, I think the Democrats will probably win it, but it's not outrageous to discuss the possibility of an upset.

In 2006, Lingle got 63% and Akaka got 61%. Hawaiians obviously don't have a problem with ticket-splitting.

[Keystone Phil]

I think the Democrats will probably win but it's worth keeping an eye on. I mean, who would've thought we'd get Begich in Alaska?

Yeah but even in a bad year, this is Hawaii and Obama isn't going to get dangerously unpopular there.

Oh, I think the Democrats will probably win it, but it's not outrageous to discuss the possibility of an upset.

In 2006, Lingle got 63% and Akaka got 61%. Hawaiians obviously don't have a problem with ticket-splitting.

But Obama wasn't running for President then (that makes a huge difference) and Lingle isn't really that popular now but I certainly hope you're right! 

[MilesC56]

I think the Democrats will probably win but it's worth keeping an eye on. I mean, who would've thought we'd get Begich in Alaska?

Yeah but even in a bad year, this is Hawaii and Obama isn't going to get dangerously unpopular there.

Oh, I think the Democrats will probably win it, but it's not outrageous to discuss the possibility of an upset.

In 2006, Lingle got 63% and Akaka got 61%. Hawaiians obviously don't have a problem with ticket-splitting.

But Akaka had a (relativity) rough primary with Case; he only got 54%. That hurt him somewhat in the general (by contrast, he got 73% in 2000 and 72% in 1994).

[Χahar]

I think the Democrats will probably win but it's worth keeping an eye on. I mean, who would've thought we'd get Begich in Alaska?

Yeah but even in a bad year, this is Hawaii and Obama isn't going to get dangerously unpopular there.

Oh, I think the Democrats will probably win it, but it's not outrageous to discuss the possibility of an upset.

In 2006, Lingle got 63% and Akaka got 61%. Hawaiians obviously don't have a problem with ticket-splitting.

Both were incumbents, though.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

MSNBC, of all sources, just called Hawaii a toss up race. What the hell?

Well, to be fair, it was Chris Matthews.

[redcommander]

Democrats are going to have trouble with whichever candidate they put up. Hirono has already lost to Lingle before, and Lingle can build upon her past experiences running against her in this campaign, whereas Ed Case gives much of the Progressive financial base on the mainland disgust with his DINO tendencies. It will be an uphill climb running with Obama at the top of the ballot, but I wouldn't rule out a Lingle win.

[Invisible Obama]

Lingle is not going to win under normal circumstances, the fact that she won races in the past has no impact on this race at all. The best she'll do is lose by 20 points, maybe 15.

[Nichlemn]

I think coattails matter but it's not a simple function of Obama's share of the vote. The idea that there's a "maximum" amount of ticket splitting (i.e. to the tune of 10 points or so) as some people seem to be implying is silly.

[RodPresident]

This election has a lot of interesting histories and one of them is that primary can end being hijacked by Republicans... We need to see also the state of third parties and Independents at Hawaii. Although Libertarians are the only party registered, I think that Greens are already working to get Party registration. If Greens get a candidate that can be attractive to Democratic voters, many Obama voters will cross to this candidate. A Independent guy would need to have more votes than less-voted nominee (Libertarian nominee), what can ease the way. A 3-way election is very possible if non-D/R get the right person.

[RogueBeaver]

The only way for a 3-way race to happen is if Case runs as an independent Democrat, which would almost certainly assure Lingle's election. 99% chance that doesn't happen though.

[redcommander]

The only way for a 3-way race to happen is if Case runs as an independent Democrat, which would almost certainly assure Lingle's election. 99% chance that doesn't happen though.

Don't be so sure of that. He could pull out before primary day and do so. Afterall he elected Djou in 2010 by not endorsing Hanabusa.

[RogueBeaver]

Case ran in the special election, but not in the general. If he ran in the general, it would guarantee Lingle's election. If he somehow won the Democratic nomination, it would also make Lingle's job a lot easier.