CanPol: Chantal Hebert's "Politicians to Watch/Forget" for 2012
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 19, 2024, 05:24:08 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  General Politics
  International General Discussion (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  CanPol: Chantal Hebert's "Politicians to Watch/Forget" for 2012
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: CanPol: Chantal Hebert's "Politicians to Watch/Forget" for 2012  (Read 553 times)
RogueBeaver
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,058
Canada
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: December 20, 2011, 09:18:31 PM »

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/canada/338712/a-surveiller-ou-a-oublier-en-2012

My take:

Harper, Kenney, Ambrose and a couple of others should rank above Legault and be included. That said...

Legault: Will win either a smaller majority than expected or Charest somehow pulls a fourth term out of his hat.

Mulcair: Probably loses, and will definitely be sour grapes for a while.

Rae: Continues to steer the Liberals back on course, probably doesn't run for permanent. Will not endorse any leadership candidate.

McGuinty: Stays in Ontario obviously, I'll let the Ontarians guess what he'll do as premier. Endorses his brother for Liberal leader if David runs.

Trudeau: Keeps his head down for most of the year, staying neutral in the leadership contest. If lucky, he gets a Shadow Cabinet promotion in the summer reshuffle. Doesn't change his mind about 2013.

Coderre: Stays in Ottawa because Tremblay's running for a fourth term as mayor.

Bernier: Keeps his role as guardian of the Bleu flame in Quebec, higher profile. No Cabinet promotion.

Paille: No idea.
Logged
Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,707
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: December 20, 2011, 10:04:06 PM »

She thinks Charest is the most well-known Quebec politician in ROC...? We'll see about that a year or so after Mulcair wins the leadership race. Smiley

I don't see how Trudeau is so memorable this year, just for saying a swear word. It's all media hype.
Logged
Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,968
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: December 20, 2011, 10:16:12 PM »

I think Bob Rae will end up running for leader, and win and "save" the Liberal Party. He will get a large boost in Ontario, which is very, very, ironic.  Someone like Nash or Dewar will win the NDP leadership race. The party won't do as well in Quebec, but will hold on to maybe half their seats. The BQ will most of these back.  Harper will win another majority, perhaps a larger one, as the opposition will be even more divided. The Tory popular vote will go down.

Legault will probably win in Quebec, and we may see a minority gov't situation in Alberta. We'll see, though. BC will hold off their elections until 2013. McGuinty will keep on going until 2014 at the earliest.
Logged
RogueBeaver
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,058
Canada
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: December 20, 2011, 10:37:47 PM »

Even if Mulcair won (which I'll believe when I see it) then he'd just tie Charest rather than surpass him.

NDP: Quite possible that there's an Liberal '06 style scenario.

Rae: Your scenario doesn't make sense, since those numbers still leave NDP as OO. Nonetheless, I agree with the prediction of a Liberal comeback- just under Kennedy. Were Kennedy not all but confirmed to be running Rae would definitely be preferable to Dad's brother and LeBland.

Alberta: There aren't any Albertans on that list.

Legault: Agreed.

Trudeau: He'll probably try and get his energy plank inserted into the platform come January, otherwise keeping a fairly low (for him) political profile.
Logged
Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,707
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: December 21, 2011, 10:02:43 AM »

A Rae leadership would be disastrous for the Liberal party and the NDP.
Logged
RogueBeaver
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,058
Canada
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: December 21, 2011, 10:16:33 AM »

A Rae leadership would be disastrous for the Liberal party and the NDP.

Uhh, that's a contradiction.
Logged
Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,707
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: December 22, 2011, 11:56:07 AM »

A Rae leadership would be disastrous for the Liberal party and the NDP.

Uhh, that's a contradiction.
How?
Logged
RogueBeaver
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,058
Canada
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: December 22, 2011, 12:01:38 PM »


There can only be one OO, n'est ce pas?
Logged
Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,707
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: December 22, 2011, 01:01:32 PM »

Yes, but it can be bad for the Liberals and NDP because it can benefit the Tories? Especially in Ontario. A Rae leadership would help Harper keep some of the gains he got there.
Logged
RogueBeaver
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,058
Canada
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: December 22, 2011, 01:07:03 PM »

Yes, but it can be bad for the Liberals and NDP because it can benefit the Tories? Especially in Ontario. A Rae leadership would help Harper keep some of the gains he got there.

Hence why Kennedy's their best choice. But for the other thread...
Logged
Хahar 🤔
Xahar
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 41,731
Bangladesh


Political Matrix
E: -6.77, S: 0.61

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: December 22, 2011, 03:32:38 PM »


You can still have examples like Ontario 1987 where a party backs into official opposition.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.224 seconds with 13 queries.