Holden vs. Santorum

[TeePee4Prez]

Tim Holden (D-PA 17) is another centrist Democrat who could easily oust Santorum. He creamed Patern in the debates (Paterno did well too, Holden just has a very no-nonsense way of talking).

Any Democrat that can win in what should be a VERY safe Republican district is a go in my book against Santorum. A Democrat with support in the "T" could do just about anything in this state.

Not a fan of Holden, but I'd vote for him over Santorum without blinking.  Question now is PA 17 is gone for the Dems though and in a primary, I would vote Hoeffel, Hafer, or Casey over Holden just because Holden runs a greater risk than Casey.  I'm not as sure of Holden as I am Casey.  Holden will also have liberal turnout issues and is unknown in the SE.

[TeePee4Prez]

CNN has a map:  http://us.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/PA/S/01/index.html
My remark was mostly hyperbole: Hoeffel did pretty badly everywhere. He won a grand total of four counties... although he did win 71% in Philly.

CNN's maps are hard to tell the slightly Democratic counties from the slightly Republican ones. Hoeffel won Philly, Allegheny, and where else?

Beaver and Fayette. I would have expected him to win Fayette, but Beaver is rather odd.

If the Republican were Santorum, I would expect Hoeffel to add Montgomery, Bucks, Delaware, and Lackawanna at the very least in 2006.  You may also include Chester, Luzerne, Carbon, Monroe, Lehigh, Northampton, a possibly one or two more around Pittsburgh.

[TeePee4Prez]

Yea, for a social liberal Hoeffel actually did pretty well in SWPA. He picked up more counties in SWPA then in the Southeast. I imagine the fact that Specter is also from the Southeast kept his numbers down.

I know people are saying CASEY! CASEY!, but the thing is Hoeffel got a lot fo name rec in SWPA and SEPA felt Hoeffel was a good candidate, btu liek Specter's seniority.  Hoeffel could actually raise more money than Casey due to the pro-choice groups.  I have a feeling that even though Casey is pro-life, the groups would still contribute to Santorum.  Keystone, case and point about never underestimating pro-choice money that even I learned this election: ALLYSON SCHWARTZ!  Minus EMILY's List and NARAL, Schwartz would have been pulverized by Joe Torsella and possibly Melissa Brown.

[TeePee4Prez]

CNN has a map:  http://us.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/PA/S/01/index.html
My remark was mostly hyperbole: Hoeffel did pretty badly everywhere. He won a grand total of four counties... although he did win 71% in Philly.

CNN's maps are hard to tell the slightly Democratic counties from the slightly Republican ones. Hoeffel won Philly, Allegheny, and where else?

Beaver and Fayette. I would have expected him to win Fayette, but Beaver is rather odd.

  You may also include Chester

Santorum received about 65% of the vote in Chester in 2000. Keep dreaming...

Won Montgomery as well in 2000 under the guise of a moderate and a weakling Dem in Ron Klink.  Chester actually has about a 40% chance of voting Hoeffel due to Rendell turnout plus the fact Santorum is known as hard right. 

[TeePee4Prez]

Yea, for a social liberal Hoeffel actually did pretty well in SWPA. He picked up more counties in SWPA then in the Southeast. I imagine the fact that Specter is also from the Southeast kept his numbers down.

  Keystone, case and point about never underestimating pro-choice money that even I learned this election: ALLYSON SCHWARTZ!  Minus EMILY's List and NARAL, Schwartz would have been pulverized by Joe Torsella and possibly Melissa Brown.

Without that money, Schwartz would have been seriously weakened. I'd love for her to run for Senate against Santorum. All the money in the world wouldn't help her win that race. It would be great!

I think the money from the corporate-religilous right has helped Santorum out a lot as well.  Without that, he'd have serious problems.

[TeePee4Prez]

CNN has a map:  http://us.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/PA/S/01/index.html
My remark was mostly hyperbole: Hoeffel did pretty badly everywhere. He won a grand total of four counties... although he did win 71% in Philly.

CNN's maps are hard to tell the slightly Democratic counties from the slightly Republican ones. Hoeffel won Philly, Allegheny, and where else?

Beaver and Fayette. I would have expected him to win Fayette, but Beaver is rather odd.

  You may also include Chester

Santorum received about 65% of the vote in Chester in 2000. Keep dreaming...

Won Montgomery as well in 2000 under the guise of a moderate and a weakling Dem in Ron Klink.  Chester actually has about a 40% chance of voting Hoeffel due to Rendell turnout plus the fact Santorum is known as hard right. 

You can't compare Montco and Chester. Just the fact that Chester is more conservative than Montco shows the argument that Santorum can lose Chester is weak. I can almost guarentee that a county that Santorum won with 65% of the vote will not swing in 2006 even with Rendell on the ballot (By the way, Rendell seems to be the only Dem candidate that Chester county likes).

Keystone, in all likelyhood Santorum IS losing Montgomery.  Also, Chester will be much closer than in 2000.  I'm thinking maybe 54-56% instead of 65%.  Remeber they almost elected Lois Murphy and Kerry barely lost Chesco.  If Hoeffel carries the other 3 suburban counties, he'll be in a good shape.  Carries 2 (loses Bucks, wins Montco and Delco), he can only afford to lose a lttle bit out western PA, which unfortunately, I expect a minor shift towards Santorum.  And believe me, he's lucky it's not a reverse due to the charter school scandal.  I think Hoeffel could carry SEPA strongly enough to win.      

[TeePee4Prez]

Yea, for a social liberal Hoeffel actually did pretty well in SWPA. He picked up more counties in SWPA then in the Southeast. I imagine the fact that Specter is also from the Southeast kept his numbers down.

  Keystone, case and point about never underestimating pro-choice money that even I learned this election: ALLYSON SCHWARTZ!  Minus EMILY's List and NARAL, Schwartz would have been pulverized by Joe Torsella and possibly Melissa Brown.

Without that money, Schwartz would have been seriously weakened. I'd love for her to run for Senate against Santorum. All the money in the world wouldn't help her win that race. It would be great!

I think the money from the corporate-religilous right has helped Santorum out a lot as well.  Without that, he'd have serious problems.

Santorum connects with the voters of PA. The money helps Santorum, of course, but I don't see him with any "serious problems" without it.

Believe me, US Airways and the charter school scandal will be brought up come 2006.  He will have problems.

[TeePee4Prez]

You may also include Luzerne

The Luzerne County Dems are dead while the GOP organization is the best in the state.  Baring Casey or his brother running, Luzerne County goes Republican.

Kanjorski's home?  It has a shot.

[TeePee4Prez]

You may also include Luzerne

The Luzerne County Dems are dead while the GOP organization is the best in the state.  Baring Casey or his brother running, Luzerne County goes Republican.

Kanjorski's home?  It has a shot.

What would Kanjorski's home have to do with this unless he was the candidate?

My point is Kanjorski can stump for Hoeffel and it would help.  A good part of why I have a Dem avatar and am registered as such is due to state and national politics.  At the local level, both parties suck and are corrupt jackasses with minor exceptions.  As Jake points out that the Dems look bad locally.  IHMO, that usually doesn't translate at the national level.   

[TeePee4Prez]

You may also include Luzerne

The Luzerne County Dems are dead while the GOP organization is the best in the state.  Baring Casey or his brother running, Luzerne County goes Republican.

Kanjorski's home?  It has a shot.

What would Kanjorski's home have to do with this unless he was the candidate?

My point is Kanjorski can stump for Hoeffel and it would help.  A good part of why I have a Dem avatar and am registered as such is due to state and national politics.  At the local level, both parties suck and are corrupt jackasses with minor exceptions.  As Jake points out that the Dems look bad locally.  IHMO, that usually doesn't translate at the national level.   

Kanjorski stumping for Hoeffel wouldn't do much. Hoeffel will not be elected to the U.S. Senate in 2006.

Actually Phil, Kanjorski stumping for Hoeffel would be beneficial to Hoeffel. It is much better for someone from the region to stump rather than Jessie Jackson or Hilary Clinton. 

I didn't say it wouldn't be beneficial. I just don't think it would translate into a great amount of votes. But just as Kanjorski would help, Clinton might stop here, too. She came this year for Hoeffel (along with Dean) and I'm guessing she'll want to stop down when Santorum's running in two years.

The populist Kanjorski would be needed up along the I-81 corridor bewtween Hazleton and Scranton for Hoeffel to win there.  Dean or Clinton could be very helpful down here though, but I'd recommend they avoid western or NE Pennsylvania.