Holden vs. Santorum

[danwxman]

Tim Holden (D-PA 17) is another centrist Democrat who could easily oust Santorum. He creamed Patern in the debates (Paterno did well too, Holden just has a very no-nonsense way of talking).

Any Democrat that can win in what should be a VERY safe Republican district is a go in my book against Santorum. A Democrat with support in the "T" could do just about anything in this state.

[danwxman]

CNN has a map:  http://us.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/PA/S/01/index.html
My remark was mostly hyperbole: Hoeffel did pretty badly everywhere. He won a grand total of four counties... although he did win 71% in Philly.

CNN's maps are hard to tell the slightly Democratic counties from the slightly Republican ones. Hoeffel won Philly, Allegheny, and where else?

Beaver and Fayette. I would have expected him to win Fayette, but Beaver is rather odd.

[danwxman]

Yea, for a social liberal Hoeffel actually did pretty well in SWPA. He picked up more counties in SWPA then in the Southeast. I imagine the fact that Specter is also from the Southeast kept his numbers down.

[danwxman]

Just to comment again on Holden. Harrisburg mayor Stephen Reed, a very popular Democrat (Harrisburg resides in PA-17) has reportedly been offered to run for the U.S. House. This, obviously, would allow Holden to run against Santorum. And it could in fact keep a district that should be an easy Republican pickup once Holden retires an actual competition once again.

[danwxman]

Just to comment again on Holden. Harrisburg mayor Stephen Reed, a very popular Democrat (Harrisburg resides in PA-17) has reportedly been offered to run for the U.S. House. This, obviously, would allow Holden to run against Santorum. And it could in fact keep a district that should be an easy Republican pickup once Holden retires an actual competition once again.

1) I don't think Holden would run for Senate.

2) If he decided to run, he wouldn't win the nomination.

3) Once Holden is done, it goes GOP. I think the people of PA 17 just really like Holden. No other Democrat can match that popularity in that district.

There are only two Democratic areas in the district -- Schuylkill county and the city of Harrisburg and its surrounding townships. The Hershey/Lebanon areas are immensely Republican, and that is where Reed is pretty popular. You don't know because you don't live here...but Mayor Reed is every bit as popular around here as Rendell is around Philadelphia (and this is a very Republican area, making it more of an odd case). Could the district go Republican? Absolutely...quite likely in fact if Reed doesn't run. But if Reed ran against a weak Republican (or another lightweight like Paterno) he could keep the district Democrat. If they will vote for Holden, they WILL vote for Reed. It's widely known that Reed has been grooming a successor for Mayor recently (Fred Clark).

BTW, if Holden ran against Santorum the Democratic party would be 100% behind him. Trust me.

[danwxman]

Just to comment again on Holden. Harrisburg mayor Stephen Reed, a very popular Democrat (Harrisburg resides in PA-17) has reportedly been offered to run for the U.S. House. This, obviously, would allow Holden to run against Santorum. And it could in fact keep a district that should be an easy Republican pickup once Holden retires an actual competition once again.

1) I don't think Holden would run for Senate.

2) If he decided to run, he wouldn't win the nomination.

3) Once Holden is done, it goes GOP. I think the people of PA 17 just really like Holden. No other Democrat can match that popularity in that district.

There are only two Democratic areas in the district -- Schuylkill county and the city of Harrisburg and its surrounding townships. The Hershey/Lebanon areas are immensely Republican, and that is where Reed is pretty popular. You don't know because you don't live here...but Mayor Reed is every bit as popular around here as Rendell is around Philadelphia (and this is a very Republican area, making it more of an odd case). Could the district go Republican? Absolutely...quite likely in fact if Reed doesn't run. But if Reed ran against a weak Republican (or another lightweight like Paterno) he could keep the district Democrat. If they will vote for Holden, they WILL vote for Reed. It's widely known that Reed has been grooming a successor for Mayor recently (Fred Clark).

BTW, if Holden ran against Santorum the Democratic party would be 100% behind him. Trust me.

I shouldn't say PA 17 is a solid GOP seat when Holden is done. You're right. You know the area better. You know this Reed guy. I disliked it when people tell me about my area and tell me what will happen when they haven't a clue about what happens around here. I'll take your word on him.

However, I will disagree about Holden in a Dem primary. The establishment might give him their support but in a primary against Hafer or Hoeffel, the liberals would be sure to turn out and reject Holden.

Well, I think you make a good point. The establishment will be behind him, but the voters may not. Holden is socially conservative which will help him in the west, but may hurt him in the east. Nevertheless, he is still opposed to just about every Bush administration policy and he's also quite electable. There was a quote by the PA Democratic leader that Holden is exactly the kind of Democrat the party needs to run, which makes me feel like they are really going to pressure him. I think he'll stay in his safe House seat tho, but we'll see.