Holden vs. Santorum

[Keystone Phil]

Santorum but I wouldn't mind a Senator Holden.

[Keystone Phil]

Tim Holden (D-PA 17) is another centrist Democrat who could easily oust Santorum. He creamed Patern in the debates (Paterno did well too, Holden just has a very no-nonsense way of talking).

Any Democrat that can win in what should be a VERY safe Republican district is a go in my book against Santorum. A Democrat with support in the "T" could do just about anything in this state.

 Question now is PA 17 is gone for the Dems though

When Holden leaves, PA 17 is gone for the Dems.

[Keystone Phil]

Klink failed in 2000, so the PA Dems might be wise to nominate a more socially liberal candidate.

Are you kidding? The Democrats need a socially conservative candidate to win against Santorum. Now we saw that the conservative Klink was beaten by a pretty good margin (7 points) but moving further to the left (example: Barbara Hafer) will only lower the chances for the Dems but hey...I'm not complaining.   

[Keystone Phil]

I'd vote Holden.

I think he'd have a chance but would do less well in the Philly 'burbs than a liberal pro-choice Democrat.

Klink failed in 2000, so the PA Dems might be wise to nominate a more socially liberal candidate.

Exactly, follow this advice PA Dems. NClib knows all

Klink lost because he didn't win socially liberal, economically conservative voters in the Philly suburbs. If nominating a socially conservative candidate didn't work in 2000, why would it work in 2006?

Nominate a socially liberal candidate and you can't win the all important conservative Dem vote. Conservative Dems already like Santorum so you are only giving them another reason not to vote for their party's candidate.

[Keystone Phil]

Klink lost just because he was an overall poor candidate who ran a lousy campaign. It's possible to beat Santorum with different types of candidates who can appeal to different areas. Just beat him.

I'll say this all the way up to election day in 2006: The only way you can beat Santorum in two years is if Casey is the nominee. Run a liberal like Hafer or Hoeffel and get six more years of Santorum. Let me state that I really hope that PA Dems decide either of those two (or maybe another more liberal candidate) would be best as their nominee.

[Keystone Phil]

CNN has a map:  http://us.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/PA/S/01/index.html
My remark was mostly hyperbole: Hoeffel did pretty badly everywhere. He won a grand total of four counties... although he did win 71% in Philly.

CNN's maps are hard to tell the slightly Democratic counties from the slightly Republican ones. Hoeffel won Philly, Allegheny, and where else?

Beaver and Fayette. I would have expected him to win Fayette, but Beaver is rather odd.

  You may also include Chester

Santorum received about 65% of the vote in Chester in 2000. Keep dreaming...

[Keystone Phil]

Yea, for a social liberal Hoeffel actually did pretty well in SWPA. He picked up more counties in SWPA then in the Southeast. I imagine the fact that Specter is also from the Southeast kept his numbers down.

  Keystone, case and point about never underestimating pro-choice money that even I learned this election: ALLYSON SCHWARTZ!  Minus EMILY's List and NARAL, Schwartz would have been pulverized by Joe Torsella and possibly Melissa Brown.

Without that money, Schwartz would have been seriously weakened. I'd love for her to run for Senate against Santorum. All the money in the world wouldn't help her win that race. It would be great!

[Keystone Phil]

CNN has a map:  http://us.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/PA/S/01/index.html
My remark was mostly hyperbole: Hoeffel did pretty badly everywhere. He won a grand total of four counties... although he did win 71% in Philly.

CNN's maps are hard to tell the slightly Democratic counties from the slightly Republican ones. Hoeffel won Philly, Allegheny, and where else?

Beaver and Fayette. I would have expected him to win Fayette, but Beaver is rather odd.

  You may also include Chester

Santorum received about 65% of the vote in Chester in 2000. Keep dreaming...

Won Montgomery as well in 2000 under the guise of a moderate and a weakling Dem in Ron Klink.  Chester actually has about a 40% chance of voting Hoeffel due to Rendell turnout plus the fact Santorum is known as hard right. 

You can't compare Montco and Chester. Just the fact that Chester is more conservative than Montco shows the argument that Santorum can lose Chester is weak. I can almost guarentee that a county that Santorum won with 65% of the vote will not swing in 2006 even with Rendell on the ballot (By the way, Rendell seems to be the only Dem candidate that Chester county likes).

[Keystone Phil]

Yea, for a social liberal Hoeffel actually did pretty well in SWPA. He picked up more counties in SWPA then in the Southeast. I imagine the fact that Specter is also from the Southeast kept his numbers down.

  Keystone, case and point about never underestimating pro-choice money that even I learned this election: ALLYSON SCHWARTZ!  Minus EMILY's List and NARAL, Schwartz would have been pulverized by Joe Torsella and possibly Melissa Brown.

Without that money, Schwartz would have been seriously weakened. I'd love for her to run for Senate against Santorum. All the money in the world wouldn't help her win that race. It would be great!

I think the money from the corporate-religilous right has helped Santorum out a lot as well.  Without that, he'd have serious problems.

Santorum connects with the voters of PA. The money helps Santorum, of course, but I don't see him with any "serious problems" without it.

[Keystone Phil]

Yea, for a social liberal Hoeffel actually did pretty well in SWPA. He picked up more counties in SWPA then in the Southeast. I imagine the fact that Specter is also from the Southeast kept his numbers down.

  Keystone, case and point about never underestimating pro-choice money that even I learned this election: ALLYSON SCHWARTZ!  Minus EMILY's List and NARAL, Schwartz would have been pulverized by Joe Torsella and possibly Melissa Brown.

Without that money, Schwartz would have been seriously weakened. I'd love for her to run for Senate against Santorum. All the money in the world wouldn't help her win that race. It would be great!

I think the money from the corporate-religilous right has helped Santorum out a lot as well.  Without that, he'd have serious problems.

Santorum connects with the voters of PA. The money helps Santorum, of course, but I don't see him with any "serious problems" without it.

Believe me, US Airways and the charter school scandal will be brought up come 2006.  He will have problems.

It'll be brought up. Santorum will still win and win easily.

[Keystone Phil]

CNN has a map:  http://us.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/PA/S/01/index.html
My remark was mostly hyperbole: Hoeffel did pretty badly everywhere. He won a grand total of four counties... although he did win 71% in Philly.

CNN's maps are hard to tell the slightly Democratic counties from the slightly Republican ones. Hoeffel won Philly, Allegheny, and where else?

Beaver and Fayette. I would have expected him to win Fayette, but Beaver is rather odd.

  You may also include Chester

Santorum received about 65% of the vote in Chester in 2000. Keep dreaming...

Won Montgomery as well in 2000 under the guise of a moderate and a weakling Dem in Ron Klink.  Chester actually has about a 40% chance of voting Hoeffel due to Rendell turnout plus the fact Santorum is known as hard right. 

You can't compare Montco and Chester. Just the fact that Chester is more conservative than Montco shows the argument that Santorum can lose Chester is weak. I can almost guarentee that a county that Santorum won with 65% of the vote will not swing in 2006 even with Rendell on the ballot (By the way, Rendell seems to be the only Dem candidate that Chester county likes).

Keystone, in all likelyhood Santorum IS losing Montgomery.  Also, Chester will be much closer than in 2000.  I'm thinking maybe 54-56% instead of 65%.  Remeber they almost elected Lois Murphy and Kerry barely lost Chesco.  If Hoeffel carries the other 3 suburban counties, he'll be in a good shape.  Carries 2 (loses Bucks, wins Montco and Delco), he can only afford to lose a lttle bit out western PA, which unfortunately, I expect a minor shift towards Santorum.  And believe me, he's lucky it's not a reverse due to the charter school scandal.  I think Hoeffel could carry SEPA strongly enough to win.      

Ok where did I say Santorum would win Montco? That's not part of this conversation.

Murphy was almost elected but only parts of Chester are in PA 6. Chester county as a whole, Murphy would have gotten crushed.

Hoeffel could carry all of SE PA but it would have to be by an incredible margin to beat Santorum. That being said, I don't think that type of incredible margin for Hoeffel in this area will happen.

[Keystone Phil]

You may also include Luzerne

The Luzerne County Dems are dead while the GOP organization is the best in the state.  Baring Casey or his brother running, Luzerne County goes Republican.

Kanjorski's home?  It has a shot.

What would Kanjorski's home have to do with this unless he was the candidate?

[Keystone Phil]

You may also include Luzerne

The Luzerne County Dems are dead while the GOP organization is the best in the state.  Baring Casey or his brother running, Luzerne County goes Republican.

Kanjorski's home?  It has a shot.

What would Kanjorski's home have to do with this unless he was the candidate?

My point is Kanjorski can stump for Hoeffel and it would help.  A good part of why I have a Dem avatar and am registered as such is due to state and national politics.  At the local level, both parties suck and are corrupt jackasses with minor exceptions.  As Jake points out that the Dems look bad locally.  IHMO, that usually doesn't translate at the national level.   

Kanjorski stumping for Hoeffel wouldn't do much. Hoeffel will not be elected to the U.S. Senate in 2006.

[Keystone Phil]

You may also include Luzerne

The Luzerne County Dems are dead while the GOP organization is the best in the state.  Baring Casey or his brother running, Luzerne County goes Republican.

Kanjorski's home?  It has a shot.

What would Kanjorski's home have to do with this unless he was the candidate?

My point is Kanjorski can stump for Hoeffel and it would help.  A good part of why I have a Dem avatar and am registered as such is due to state and national politics.  At the local level, both parties suck and are corrupt jackasses with minor exceptions.  As Jake points out that the Dems look bad locally.  IHMO, that usually doesn't translate at the national level.   

Kanjorski stumping for Hoeffel wouldn't do much. Hoeffel will not be elected to the U.S. Senate in 2006.

Actually Phil, Kanjorski stumping for Hoeffel would be beneficial to Hoeffel. It is much better for someone from the region to stump rather than Jessie Jackson or Hilary Clinton. 

I didn't say it wouldn't be beneficial. I just don't think it would translate into a great amount of votes. But just as Kanjorski would help, Clinton might stop here, too. She came this year for Hoeffel (along with Dean) and I'm guessing she'll want to stop down when Santorum's running in two years.

[Keystone Phil]

Just to comment again on Holden. Harrisburg mayor Stephen Reed, a very popular Democrat (Harrisburg resides in PA-17) has reportedly been offered to run for the U.S. House. This, obviously, would allow Holden to run against Santorum. And it could in fact keep a district that should be an easy Republican pickup once Holden retires an actual competition once again.

1) I don't think Holden would run for Senate.

2) If he decided to run, he wouldn't win the nomination.

3) Once Holden is done, it goes GOP. I think the people of PA 17 just really like Holden. No other Democrat can match that popularity in that district.

[Keystone Phil]

Just to comment again on Holden. Harrisburg mayor Stephen Reed, a very popular Democrat (Harrisburg resides in PA-17) has reportedly been offered to run for the U.S. House. This, obviously, would allow Holden to run against Santorum. And it could in fact keep a district that should be an easy Republican pickup once Holden retires an actual competition once again.

1) I don't think Holden would run for Senate.

2) If he decided to run, he wouldn't win the nomination.

3) Once Holden is done, it goes GOP. I think the people of PA 17 just really like Holden. No other Democrat can match that popularity in that district.

There are only two Democratic areas in the district -- Schuylkill county and the city of Harrisburg and its surrounding townships. The Hershey/Lebanon areas are immensely Republican, and that is where Reed is pretty popular. You don't know because you don't live here...but Mayor Reed is every bit as popular around here as Rendell is around Philadelphia (and this is a very Republican area, making it more of an odd case). Could the district go Republican? Absolutely...quite likely in fact if Reed doesn't run. But if Reed ran against a weak Republican (or another lightweight like Paterno) he could keep the district Democrat. If they will vote for Holden, they WILL vote for Reed. It's widely known that Reed has been grooming a successor for Mayor recently (Fred Clark).

BTW, if Holden ran against Santorum the Democratic party would be 100% behind him. Trust me.

I shouldn't say PA 17 is a solid GOP seat when Holden is done. You're right. You know the area better. You know this Reed guy. I disliked it when people tell me about my area and tell me what will happen when they haven't a clue about what happens around here. I'll take your word on him.

However, I will disagree about Holden in a Dem primary. The establishment might give him their support but in a primary against Hafer or Hoeffel, the liberals would be sure to turn out and reject Holden.