Democrat Let's Cat out of Bag on VRA

[BigSkyBob]

White Democrat in Missouri lays to rest the myth that creating 40% Black districts would still allow Blacks to select "the candidate of their choice:"

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2011/12/russ-carnahans.php

[Brittain33]

White Democrat in Missouri lays to rest the myth that creating 40% Black districts would still allow Blacks to select "the candidate of their choice:"

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2011/12/russ-carnahans.php

Um, wow, that's quite a misreading of this piece.

[BigSkyBob]

White Democrat in Missouri lays to rest the myth that creating 40% Black districts would still allow Blacks to select "the candidate of their choice:"

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2011/12/russ-carnahans.php

Um, wow, that's quite a misreading of this piece.

It is clear that he wrote that the new district will not nominate the Democrat preferred by 85% of Blacks ["the candidate of their choice"] if Russ Carnahan runs.

I have clear recollections of Democrats here writing that even lower Black percentage districts are near certain to nominate and elect Blacks. Pure Bravo Sierra.

[Brittain33]

It is clear that he wrote that the new district will not nominate the Democrat preferred by 85% of Blacks ["the candidate of their choice"] if Russ Carnahan runs.

He didn't write "they won't nominate Clay if Carnahan runs," he wrote "let's assume this, and then fudge some numbers there, and wave our hands a little, and then assume some more, and maybe Carnahan has a chance to win." Note that this guy appears to be the only Democrat who believes this is possible, and he's not even saying he'd win.

This is somewhat less defensible than my quoting one of Ron Paul's newsletters as saying "White Republican Let's Cat out of Bag about Republicans hating African-American's."

[Brittain33]

Anyway, there's no magic number that says things are ok, it depends entirely on the region. 40% in NYC would be plenty. 40% in Mississippi would not be. St. Louis is somewhere in-between but closer to NYC.

[krazen1211]

Gary Peters and Debbie Halvorston are of course counting on similar gambits to take those districts away from their black incumbents.

[traininthedistance]

It depends where you are in the country.  In the Deep South, voting is so racially polarized that you do probably need a black majority to elect a "candidate of choice" (though Sanford Bishop proves this is not quite a hard and fast rule); in urban areas the threshold is much lower.  Charlie Rangel's district is practically majority-Hispanic (and probably will be after resdistricting) but he keeps getting elected.

And, of course, sometimes the "candidate of choice" ends up white anyway: Steve Cohen and Gene Green are the most notable examples.

In this case Russ Carnahan is a special case given his name and political history in Missouri; anyone else and this wouldn't be an issue.  

[traininthedistance]

Also, "Let's"? 

Ow.

[Torie]

Query, is this matter of a minority being able to elect a candidate of their "choice," mean a candidate whom 50% + 1 support of their particular minority, or some lower percentage?  If 45% of Hispanics prefer a Pub, and 55% a Dem somewhere, does that mean a Pub district is "bad" for such a district because it will elect a candidate "only" supported by 45% of Hispanics, even if the CD has a majority of CVAP Hispanics?

This is the fundamental flaw in the VRA in my opinion. Absent rather extreme cases, things rapidly move into shades of grey. Yet another reason to dump the VRA. Outside the black zone in certain places, things are hardly black v white, with almost no twilight zone.

[muon2]

For the VRA to apply there must be racially polarized voting. A statistically significant difference must exist between a minority population and the white majority. Without that difference the choice of the voters is presumably race neutral. If there is a difference then one should be able to identify in an election the candidate of choice of the minority voters.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

lol

[Torie]

For the VRA to apply there must be racially polarized voting. A statistically significant difference must exist between a minority population and the white majority. Without that difference the choice of the voters is presumably race neutral. If there is a difference then one should be able to identify in an election the candidate of choice of the minority voters.

So assuming racial differences in voting, which of course exists almost everywhere, candidate of "choice" means 50% plus 1 of the minority in question. And if, say, a majority of Hispanics somewhere, someday, support Pubs, then the world turns upside down. Wonderful!

[BigSkyBob]

For the VRA to apply there must be racially polarized voting. A statistically significant difference must exist between a minority population and the white majority. Without that difference the choice of the voters is presumably race neutral. If there is a difference then one should be able to identify in an election the candidate of choice of the minority voters.

If some minority were to vote pretty consistently 50.5% for the Democrat, and, Whites were pretty consistently voting 50.5% for the Republican, that might not be considered "statistically significant," but, its the difference between consistently winning, and, consistenly losing.

[Хahar 🤔]

Also, "Let's"? 

Ow.

You never know; there could be a Democrat named Let who had a cat that is now out of a bag at Varadero Airport in Cuba.

[memphis]

It depends where you are in the country.  In the Deep South, voting is so racially polarized that you do probably need a black majority to elect a "candidate of choice"

I live in a 60% black district in the Deep South that regularly re-elects our white Jewish candidate in overwhelming landslides. Our black five-term (18 years!) mayor ran a primary campaign, pointing out that the seat was "reserved" for black people and thus, belonged to him. And he got his a$$ handed to him at the polls by black people. Cohen won 79-21 in the primary, in a district where most whites are Republicans. It's time to let go of the racial gerrymanders.