George W. Bush vs. Bill Clinton
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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  George W. Bush vs. Bill Clinton
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Poll
Question: Who would you vote for?
#1
George W. Bush
 
#2
Bill Clinton
 
#3
Abstain
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 70

Author Topic: George W. Bush vs. Bill Clinton  (Read 6402 times)
A18
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« on: December 31, 2004, 10:31:33 AM »

No third parties. Only two candidates in the race.
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Akno21
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« Reply #1 on: December 31, 2004, 10:41:22 AM »

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Akno21
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« Reply #2 on: December 31, 2004, 10:42:13 AM »

The map is 333-205
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Defarge
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« Reply #3 on: December 31, 2004, 10:47:19 AM »

Clinton wins by a combfortable margin electorally, but but a smaller margin in the popular vote.
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Harry
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« Reply #4 on: December 31, 2004, 11:13:04 AM »

something like the 1996 map.
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True Democrat
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« Reply #5 on: December 31, 2004, 11:18:19 AM »


Clinton would win Colorado and Virginia.  He would also have a good shot at North Carolina, Arizona, West Virginia, and Louisiana.
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Josh
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« Reply #6 on: December 31, 2004, 11:20:22 AM »

Definitely have to say Clinton, by a pretty large electoral margin.
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A18
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« Reply #7 on: December 31, 2004, 11:21:45 AM »

Oh, okay. Well here's my map:



DC is really a tossup.
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Akno21
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« Reply #8 on: December 31, 2004, 11:23:09 AM »


Clinton would win Colorado and Virginia.  He would also have a good shot at North Carolina, Arizona, West Virginia, and Louisiana.



That's 405-133
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A18
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« Reply #9 on: December 31, 2004, 11:27:02 AM »

This isn't the "who can make the worst map?" topic. Besides, I already won. The notion that Clinton could win Virginia or North Carolina is complete idiocy.
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nini2287
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« Reply #10 on: December 31, 2004, 12:01:20 PM »

1992
Virginia
Bush 45.0
Clinton 40.6
Perot 13.6

North Carolina
Bush 43.4
Clinton 42.7
Perot 13.7

1996
Virginia
Dole 47.1
Clinton 45.2
Perot 6.6

North Carolina
Dole 48.7
Clinton 44.0
Perot 6.7

Sheer lunacy, indeed.

Personally, do I think Clinton would win these states?  No, but it would be very close.
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True Democrat
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« Reply #11 on: December 31, 2004, 12:12:53 PM »

1992
Virginia
Bush 45.0
Clinton 40.6
Perot 13.6

North Carolina
Bush 43.4
Clinton 42.7
Perot 13.7

1996
Virginia
Dole 47.1
Clinton 45.2
Perot 6.6

North Carolina
Dole 48.7
Clinton 44.0
Perot 6.7

Sheer lunacy, indeed.

Personally, do I think Clinton would win these states? No, but it would be very close.


Clinton came close to winning Virginia without getting a majority in Fairfax county.  If Kerry can win Fairfax, so can Clinton.  Coupled with Clinton's numbers in southern and western Virginia, he should be able to win Virginia.  North Carolina would be much closer than Virginia.  He made it a four point margin when Perot did not do very well.  A large influx of northerners have moved to North Carolina, like Virginia, making it possible for Clinton to win.
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A18
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« Reply #12 on: December 31, 2004, 12:27:08 PM »

The way Fairfax votes is irrelevant. I agree that he could win that.

1. The Perot factor
2. Bush is a lot more popular than Dole
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A18
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« Reply #13 on: December 31, 2004, 07:30:06 PM »


There are no write ins.
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2952-0-0
exnaderite
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« Reply #14 on: December 31, 2004, 09:59:46 PM »

And right now, Bill Clinton seems to be winning all 538 EVs. Seriously Philip, you read too much Ann Coulter.
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A18
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« Reply #15 on: December 31, 2004, 10:05:59 PM »

Yes, because this is a scientific survey.

I don't read Ann Coulter.
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
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« Reply #16 on: December 31, 2004, 10:25:39 PM »

Clinton would've definately won Virginia in 1996 if it had the same demographics and voting patters of today (after all he would've won Fairfax). He probably could've won Colorado too. He would've lost Kentucky. But Bush wouldn't do as poorly as Dole. Regardless he'd still lose.
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A18
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« Reply #17 on: December 31, 2004, 10:33:28 PM »

Yeah, he would have won Fairfax. And LOST a series of other counties, and the GOP would have dominated the other portions of the state. It is more Republican now.
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Rob
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« Reply #18 on: December 31, 2004, 10:38:02 PM »

Clinton would carry all his '96 states minus Kentucky, while gaining Colorado and maybe Virginia.
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Reaganfan
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« Reply #19 on: January 01, 2005, 04:05:12 AM »

Toguh call IMO. Clinton had a few "STAINS" left. If he was running after the MONICA thing, I think Bush would beat him.
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Alcon
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« Reply #20 on: January 01, 2005, 05:03:41 AM »

Toguh call IMO. Clinton had a few "STAINS" left. If he was running after the MONICA thing, I think Bush would beat him.

Are you kidding? Clinton left office with higher approval ratings than Bush can now dream of.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #21 on: January 01, 2005, 05:18:34 AM »

WV always gave Bubba some of his best approval ratings
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skybridge
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« Reply #22 on: January 01, 2005, 06:14:42 AM »

Oh, okay. Well here's my map:



DC is really a tossup.

You wish!
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George W. Bush
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« Reply #23 on: January 01, 2005, 01:45:47 PM »

 I think Clinton would Losse, Arizona, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia and Louisiana. He would Pick up Colorado.
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Michael Z
Mike
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« Reply #24 on: January 01, 2005, 02:25:07 PM »

Toguh call IMO. Clinton had a few "STAINS" left. If he was running after the MONICA thing, I think Bush would beat him.

The day you predict a Democratic victory will be the day pigs fly.
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