2014: Midterms, Presidential Contests and beyond

[MilesC56]

Chris: Now lets move down to the state of Tennessee; here we have good news for both parties. Last year Senator Lamar Alexander announced his retirement. Well, popular Governor Bill Haslam will be heading to Washington to take his place; he defeats Congressman Jim Cooper. Cooper ran a good campaign, but with an approval rating of 57/39, Haslam was a strong favorite and will be winning by 17 points tonight. Democrats won Tennessee's other seat in 2012 with Bart Gordon, so it was always unlikely voters in this red-trending state would send two Democrats to the Senate; Haslam keeps this seat in GOP hands.

Now for the open statehouse, former Governor Phil Bredesen ran again. He left office in 2010, but he missed his old job; the DSCC even tried to draft him for Senate, but he instead ran for the Governorship again. Even though he's 70 years old, Bredesen is the most popular politician in the state, he has a 60/25 favorable rating. He will be defeating Lieutenant Governor Ron Ramsey. Ramsey ran a poor campaign filled with gaffes and struggled to fund raise. Bredesen  wins by 30 points, limiting Ramsey to only a handful of eastern counties.
Bredesen was known as a Governor who could cross party lines to pass legislation. He'll need that ability as a takes office again; he'll be working with Republican supermajorities in both Assembly chambers. 

Rachel: And we also have news from New Jersey. This was one of the more competitive races. We can project that Republican Senator Frank LoBiondo will be keeping his seat for a full term. If you remember, LoBiondo had scare in the primary against tea party Congressman Jon Runyan. Despite some of his liberal positions, LoBiondo had the endorsement of Governor Chris Christie. Christie's endorsement helped negate Runyan's challenge as LoBiondo won the primary by a 57-41 margin.
In the general election, Democrats ran Newark Mayor Cory Booker. Tonight it looks like Booker just didn't the turnout he needed in the upper portions of the state. By contrast, LoBiondo won his old district with 63% of the vote, a district that Barack Obama won in 2012 with 52%.

[JulioMadrid]

Poor Cory Booker

[Vote UKIP!]

Can't wait for the results from the Georgia races! My predictions:

Close races for both the senate and the governorship. I think Chambliss cleans up in the rural areas of the state but is finally too conservative for metro Atlanta. He narrowly loses reelection. Nathan Deal does better in the suburbs of Atlanta and wins a second term as governor.

I think Chambliss will receive a primary challenge from the right. I would say either Tom Graves, Ashley Bell, or even Herman Cain.

Nathan Deal will likely coast to another term as governor.

[MilesC56]

Rachel: And now we have more southern states rolling in results. We start in the Carolinas. Senator Kay Hagan will be winning a second term as she defeats Speaker of the NC Assembly Thom Tillis. Hagan benefited from the campaign infrastructure from the 2012 DNC that was in North Carolina and she ran ahead of Tillis in fundraising. Hagan hammered Tillis on his work in the Assembly as he advocated bills that would restrict voting access and drastically cut education programs. In PPP's last poll confirmed the effectiveness of the Democrat's attacks; 42% voters viewed Tillis as "extreme" compared to only 31% for Hagan.

Chuck:We can also confirm that Senator Lindsey Graham will be coming out ahead in that three-way race in South Carolina; Graham dominated in the his old House district and cobbled together pluralities in the Columbia and Charleston areas to win. This was truly a great effort on the part of the Graham people. They studied Lisa Murkowski's successful write-in campaign 4 years earlier. Graham had the added benefit of a weak opponent. Greene ran for the Democratic nomination in 2010 but was defeated by Vic Rawl. This time around, Greene got the nomination and ran possibly the most comical campaign in the county. In any case, Greene was an awful candidate; only 22% of voters had a favorable opinion of him and he only won a handful of heavily black counties.

Here are some interesting stats. Even though Mulvaney beat Graham 65/31 with registered  Republicans and lost Independents by only 50/45, Graham's advantage with Democrats allowed him to win. Graham beat Greene 55-39 with that Democrats as part of a coalition of moderate Republicans and Independents.
Well, with Senator Jim DeMint retiring in 2016, Mulvaney may have a better opportunity to run again.

Chris: Speaking of three-way races, lets to go Louisiana. If a Landrieu can't win in here, then no Democrat can. This looks it will be headed to a runoff; remember, Louisiana re-implemented its old jungle primary system. While Landrieu is ahead, she failed to secure the 50% needed to preclude another round of voting.

Chuck: Thats right. Landrieu's two strong opponents were both Republicans. Lieutenant Governor Jay Dardenne finishes second with 30% and Plaquemines Parish President Billy Nungusser finishes third with 26%. Mr. Nungesser and Dardenne are bitter enemies, as they both ran for Lieutentant Governor in 2011. Neither Senator Vitter nor Governor Jindal made primary endorsements.

What may help Landrieu is that, while Nungesser has conceded, he has implied that he will not  endorse Dardenne in the runoff. So, assuming Landrieu holds her 43.5%, she'll only need to pick up 25% of Nungesser voters in the runoff.
In our exit polls, we asked Nungesser voters who their second choice would be; 48% picked Dardenne and 38% picked Landrieu with 14% unsure. Surely good news for Senator Landrieu.

Rachel: In Mississippi, Senator Thad Cochran had only third-party opponents. Despite talk of a tea party challenge from Congressman Steve Palazzo, Cochran faced little opposition in the primary and general. Cochran is perhaps the biggest pork farmer in the Senate; following in the tradition of Senators from Mississippi. He takes 87% with third parties taking a combined 13%.

Finally, in Alabama, we have two Republican wins despite top Democrat recruitment. For the Senate, Jeff Sessions, best known for his role on the Judiciary Committee, turns back former Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks. Then, in the slightly closer race for Governor, Robert Bentley keeps his seat against former Lieutenant Governor Jim Folsom. Even with candidates like Sparks and Folsom, Democrats can't seem to break the GOP dominance in Alabama.

Chuck: Now lets have a look at our compiled Senate map. Democrats have held West Virginia, North Carolina and Massachusetts and flipped Kentucky. Republicans have Maine, New Jersey, Tennessee, Mississippi and Alabama; Graham from South Carolina will continue to caucus with the GOP as well. Louisiana will, of course, not be decided tonight. Already at a net loss of 1, the GOP needs to flip at least 5 more seats.

[JulioMadrid]

Oh, I thoguth democrats would have a chance in Alabama with Jim Folsom as their candidate. But it doesn't matter. He's a DINO.

[RodPresident]

Jim Folsom Jr. is a Harold Stassen who wins primaries only going to lose on a geral. Bob Bright or even Bud Cramer would be wisest choices to Senate.

[MilesC56]

I have a big update later today.

I have Senate/Gov races for about 8 states.

[GPORTER]

I have a big update later today.

I have Senate/Gov races for about 8 states.

Great

[MRX]

Can't wait!!

[MilesC56]

Rachel: Now we have a slew of races to report on. Lets start with a state thats always fun to watch: Florida. The current Governor, Rick Scott, was so unpopular that he lost his party's nomination this week. George P. Bush, son of former Governor Jeb Bush, ran against Scott and won 50-42 in the primary. Bush also ran in 2012 but lost a close race for his party's Senate nomination. Bush went on to face Congressman Ron Klein in the general election and will be winning with about 51%. For more lets go to our numbers man, Chuck Todd.

Chuck: Well, there were some interesting statistics here. First, Governor Rick Scott will be leaving office with a 32% approval rating. Another unpopular figure here is President George Bush; 38% have a favorable opinion of him while 51% don't. You may think that would have been a drag on the Republicans in this race. But, Jeb Bush remains a very popular; his favorables are at a strong 53/39 spread. So, Jeb Bush's popularity was a big asset to his son in the election.

Chris: Well, we have numbers in from the home state of George W. Bush. In Connecticut, Governor Dan Malloy loses a rematch to Tom Foley. Despite being a Democratic Governor in a blue state, Malloy was never popular.

This next state is very dear top me: Pennsylvania. Here, we also have another incumbent losing. Governor Tom Corbett  was best known for his controversial plan to split up Pennsylvania's electoral votes by Congressional district; this never did pass, but things like that caused voters to see him as too partisan. His opponent, Congressman Jason Altmire, a conservative Democrat, won with an unusually strong showing in the western part of the state. Altmire's win breaks the 2-term trend that most Pennsylvania Governor's get.

Chuck: In New York, we have a another landslide win for popular Governor Andrew Cuomo. His opponent was Doug Hoffman, a tea party Republican who was endorsed by Sarah Palin. Obviously, Palin's endorsement doesn't play very well in New York state politics. Cuomo wins with two-thirds of the vote.

Rachel: And we have a similar case in Maryland. Lieutenant Governor Anthony Brown is elected, succeeding term-limited Martin O'Malley. Brown defeats a buddy of mine, former RNC Chair Michael Steele. In any case, Brown is widely viewed as a rising star in national Democratic politics.  

Chris: In Georgia, it looks like we have a good night for Republicans. Governor Nathan Deal will be wining a second term. Democrats had perhaps their strongest recruit possible here; Congressman John Barrow. While Barrow made this into a race, Deal's overwhelming strength in northern Georgia allows him a victory.
The Senate race wasn't as close. Senator Saxby Chambliss lost the primary to conservative advocate Herman Cain. Cain ran a great campaign and his fundraising was top-notch. Cain defeats 2008 Senate candidate Jim Martin.

Chuck: Now moving a few states over to Arkansas. Senator Mark Pryor, who's father was the very popular Senator David Pryor, is reelected to another term over Republican Secretary of State Mark Martin. In 2008, Pryor went unopposed, but this time, he'll be winning with a margin similar to that of his first Senate campaign.
When Vice President Mike Beebe resigned from office, he was replaced with Lieutenant Governor Mark Darr. Beebe left office with a 66% approval rating; Darr, by contrast, struggled to get his initiatives through the Democratic since then, as his approval stands at a poor 40/48 spread. To regain the Governorship, Democrats nominated Attorney General Dustin McDaniel. McDaniel easily defeats Darr.

So looking at our big map, we have Republicans flipping two seats while Democrats have picked up 3.

[ChairmanSanchez]

Ron Klein . Thank God he lost, he was a terrible Congressman. I live in his district. Awesome update, sad to see Scott go. Weird seeing Herman Cain in the Senate.

[JulioMadrid]

Poor GA dems... and did Dustin McDaniel win every district in Arkansas, or not?

[MilesC56]

Poor GA dems... and did Dustin McDaniel win every district in Arkansas, or not?

Pryor and McDaniel both won the 3 Dixiecrat districts (1,2 and 4). McDaniel is from Fayetteville, but I don't think even he could carry the 3rd.

[MilesC56]

No update today (traveling all day). Probably lots of new stuff over the weekend.

[JulioMadrid]

=/ When I saw the last post was from you, I thought it was an update...

[Vote UKIP!]

Awesome! Senator Cain ftw!

[mondale84]

Isn't Arkansas a Dem Hold, not a pickup?

[I Can't Get That Sound You Make, Out Of My Head]

Isn't Arkansas a Dem Hold, not a pickup?

Beebe became Obama's Veep, the LG was a Republican.

[MilesC56]

Chris: And we're back with more results! Lets start in Delaware. Well, Senator Chris Coons goes unopposed because there are no Republicans left in Delaware to oppose him! Former Congressman Mike Castle is too old, 75, and his former opponent, Christine O'Donnell has happily accepted a job as a reporter for Fox News. If there is a Republican party in Delaware, it certainly isn't visible to the naked eye.

Rachel: Moving just a state or two over, Virginia Senator Mark Warner handily defeats AG Ken Cuccinelli. Warner is one of the most popular figures in Virginia politics. Former Governor Bob McDonnell decided against running for Senate; most speculate that he'll be gearing up to run for President in 2016 instead.

Chuck: As we look out west, we have some unusually competitive races for otherwise safe seats. When Oklahoma Senator Jim Inhofe annouced his retirement, Governor Mary Fallin jumped into the race to fill his seat. She was a heavy favorite and defeats Former AG Drew Edmondson.
Well, the race to watch here was for Governor. Congressman Dan Boren gave up his House seat to run for Governor against Lieutenant Governor Todd Lamb. Boren had help from his father, University of Oklahoma President David Boren, as well as former Governor Brad Henry, both are extremely popular. Boren will be pulling out a narrow win here as he performed very well in the rural eastern and southern parts of the state. Boren was helped in large part by a 68/30 advantage in his district.

Chris: Texas politics in something else. Tonight is the first election since Ann Richards in 1990 that a Democrat is elected Texas Governor. Congressman Max Sandlin will be defeating tea party Republican Debra Medina. Sandlin defeated Ann Richards' daughter, Cecile, in the primary. A lot of moderate Democrats worried that Cecile Richards, the President of Planned Parenthood would be too liberal to win the general election; they thought that Sandlin would do a better job of reaching out to ordinarily Republican-leaning voters.
Medina surprised the establishment when she upset Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst in the primary. Still, in the general, she had one too many gaffes. Sandlin also had the NRA's endorsement, which helped to neutralize Medina's support with rural voters.

Chuck: Well, Max Sandlin had an unusual level of crossover support. Here's an example: Look at Bowie County (Texarkana). This was Sandlin's homebase. This county only gave President Obama 30%; tonight, it gave Sandlin 56%. So, Democrats had a candidate that could really go toe-to-toe with the Republican in rural, conservative areas of the state.
Now, Governor Rick Perry is leaving office with a poor 40/49 approval rating, that really played in favor of the Democrats.
Finally, the Senate was much less competitive. Attorney Ted Cruz defeated Senator John Cornyn in the primary. Cruz portrayed the Senator as a Beltway insider who lost touch with conservative wing of the GOP. Tea party PACs poured millions into Texas for Cruz; and he squeaked out a 250-vote win over Cornyn in the primary runoff. In the general, Cruz defeats former Congressman Ciro Rodriguez.

Rachel: We also just received word from Kansas. If you remember, we had another tea party primary win here as well. Congressman Tim Huelskamp ousted Senator Pat Roberts by following the model of Ted Cruz in Texas. The general election was competitive as well. Former Governor Mark Parkinson ran for the Democrats; Parkison served as interim Governor after Kathleen Sebelius joined the Obama Cabinet. Parkinson loses by 7 points, coming pretty close by Kanas standards. Still, I he's only 56, so we could see him run again in the future.
The Kansas Democratic party focused almost all its resources on the Senatorial race and never filled to oppose Governor Sam Brownback; he wins with 80% of the vote against third parties.

[JulioMadrid]

I like Mark Parkinson a lot

[Jayhawker]

Don't think Parkinson would have kept it that close, especially cause the Tea Party doesn't have an incredibly strong presence in Kansas. Certainly not enough to knock out Roberts.

Other than that, GREAT update!

[MilesC56]

I like Mark Parkinson a lot

'Ya can't win them all!

I actually thought I was being a little too generous to the D's in this update.

[I Can't Get That Sound You Make, Out Of My Head]

Surely you can find some Republican to challenge Coons?

[Jerseyrules]

Neat, Senator Herman Cain!

[MilesC56]

I'll shoot for an update by tonight.