2014: Midterms, Presidential Contests and beyond

[Miles]

Chris: We have three more states that just reported. First in Rhode Island, both incumbents are reelected. Despite a very strong recruit in former Governor John Carcieri, the GOP couldn't topple Senator Jack Reed. Reed had been reelected twice with over 70% of the vote, so this was always a very steep climb for Republicans.
Then, Governor Lincoln Davis was reelected over former Congressman David Cicilline while 10% of the vote went to third parties. Chafee was lucky that the RGA didn't recruit a candidate here; it spent its resources defending other seats like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

Rachel: In New Hampshire, Senator Jeanne Shaheen keeps her seats against former Congressman Charlie Bass. She wins by roughly the same margin as she did in 2008. The race to watch here was for Governor. Popular Governor John Lynch stepped aside after a 6th 2-year term. Lynch left office with a 61% approval rating. Still, despite that, Democrat Paul Hodes will be falling just short to Republican Ovide Lamontagne. This is significant because New Hampshire is the GOP's third pickup, after Scott Brown in Massachusetts and Tom Foley in Connecticut.

Chuck: And we have the status quo in the President's home state. Illinois voters have elected Lieutenant Governor Sheila Simon to the Senate seat being vacated by Dick Durbin. Simon ran against former Congressman Joe Walsh; despite his strong support from conservatives, Walsh was dogged by some questions about his personal life throughout the campaign. For Governor, AG Lisa Madigan wins against former Congressman Bobby Schilling. Governor Pat Quinn decided against running for a second full term and endorsed Madigan.

[freepcrusher]

i don't see why Schilling would do so badly. He isn't too hard right to turn off the suburban voters and is populist enough to win a lot of the "Reagan Democrat" voters. The only areas he would probably be crushed in would be the minority areas and most of the jewish liberal areas in the north shore.

[RodPresident]

Sheila gets Daddy's former seat. Madigan could choice the job she wanted, although gubernatorial is more of a uphill job, as Illinois is an ungovernable state, but I believe that Quinn reformed kinds enough to prevent repeats of Ryan and Blago. I think that in RI, the better thing that GOP could get is a town councillor or a state senator/representative from a swing area by RI standards, but it's a smart decision towards senate election, in order to keep some Chaffee's Republicans from supporting senator Reed, but I think that margin for Chaffee against Cicilline would be somewhat higher, breaking the 50s. Maybe a stronger than-expected libertarian guy.

[Niemeyerite]

Great. But I don't see Lincoln Davs running in Rhode Island haha:

Then, Governor Lincoln Davis was reelected over former Congressman David Cicilline while 10% of the vote went to third parties. Chafee was lucky that the RGA didn't recruit a candidate here; it spent its resources defending other seats like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

[Miles]

Great. But I don't see Lincoln Davs running in Rhode Island haha:

Lincoln Chafee....Lincoln Davis didn't carpetbag up to Rhode Island!

i don't see why Schilling would do so badly. He isn't too hard right to turn off the suburban voters and is populist enough to win a lot of the "Reagan Democrat" voters. The only areas he would probably be crushed in would be the minority areas and most of the jewish liberal areas in the north shore.

As you can tell, Illinois political geography isn't my area of expertise!

[old timey villain]

Miles, can you show me how to make those county maps? I still can't figure out how to do those!

[Miles]

Miles, can you show me how to make those county maps? I still can't figure out how to do those!

I pretty much just go into Paint and then put the images on a transparent background. I know the color values for the percentages.

PM me if you'd like me to show you.

[Miles]

On deck for next update: MI, WI, MN and NM.

[Niemeyerite]

C'mon!!

[Niemeyerite]

update, please

[Miles]

Chris: And now we're back after a long commercial break! We'll go to Wisconsin first. Earlier in the campaign, Governor Scott Walker lost the primary to Senator Ron Johnson. Most Republicans in the establishment feared that Walker, despite his legislative accomplishments would lose; he has a 36% approval rating. So, they drafted Senator Johnson to run for Governor, who would be a fresher face. Johnson has a better 45/37 approval rating and was seen as more electable. Walker lost the primary 51-42. It looks like Johnson will be winning the general election as well, as he was able to pour millions of his own dollars into this race. Walker's 2010 opponent Tom Barrett was able to come closer this time, but Johnson keeps this for the GOP.

Chuck: And its worth noting that in hypothetical polling, Barrett would have beaten Walker 47-40. Of course, Ron Johnson will be appointing an interim Senator to his seat once he takes office as Governor.

In Minnesota, we have Senator Betty McCollum clinging to a two-point lead over Governor Tim Pawlenty. Pawlenty isn't as popular as he once was, as he posts average favorable numbers; he tried to portray McCollum as too liberal for Minnesota, but remember, this was the state that gave us the late Paul Wellstone and Al Franken, two strong progressives in the Senate. The AP does not want to call this race yet. The current Governor, Mark Dayton will be reelected over former Congressman Chip Cravaack. Dayton made a good first impression on voters back in his first two years when he battled the Republican legislator; those Republicans have since lost their majority. Still, Dayton's approvals have usually been at or above 50%, which usually translates into reelection.

Chris: In Michigan, Senator Carl Levin's seat stays with the Democrats. Congressman Hansen Clarke moves up the Senate by defeating tea party Republican Justin Amash. Amash narrowly defeated Lieutenant Governor Brian Calley in the primary; at the last minute, Amash had a campaign event with Congressman Michele Bachmann, which helped to energize conservatives in his favor going into the primary.  Despite representing metro Detroit, Clarke was a great campaigner who was able to compete statewide and used Amash's endorsement from Bachmann against him. Clarke becomes the first Bangladeshi-American to serve in the Senate.
Our good friend Michael Moore was the Democratic nominee for Governor, but he'll be coming up short against Governor Rick Snyder.

Chuck: Thats right. Even though Snyder was never a particularly popular Governor, Moore was seen a bit too polarizing. Snyder, posting 41/48 job approvals, will still be winning by about 7%. Note that almost 5% of the vote went to third parties, which reflects the large percentage of voters who didn't like Snyder, but weren't willing to vote for Moore either.


Rachel: We have somewhat of an upset in New Mexico. Former Governor Gary Johnson has ousted Senator Tom Udall. Johnson said that he would go to Washington and battle both parties, which strongly resonated with Independent voters; he also had a good amount of crossover support, getting about 20% of Democrats. This was a major upset, as the last poll  had Udall up 49-44.
Governor Martinez was reelected quite comfortably over former Congressman Harry Teague. She is seen as a rising star within the party and some are trying to draft her for President in 2016.

And now lets check in with Chuck for overall maps. How are the Republicans doing?

Chuck: Well Rachel, the Republicans have had some impressive results, like holding Frank LoBiondo in New Jersey and pulling off that upset in New Mexico, but, as far as the Senate, the GOP needs to net at least 4 seats for outright control.
Looking at what we have, they could accomplish that a few ways, but this is the most likely scenario: They'd have to knock of Mary Landrieu the runoff and Pawlenty would have to pull ahead of McCollum in Minnesota. Then, Republicans have to take at least two more between Montana, Colorado, Oregon or Alaska. Basically, the GOP would need top take at least 4 of those 6 races.

As for the Governors, we have a Democrats netting two seats. Republicans picked up a trio of New England statehouses while Democrats flipped five states. As we get more results back, even larger gains are possible for both parties.

[RodPresident]

I'm only saddened that my beloved Rachel isn't on this update. It's very hard to see WI and MI sending members of Tea Party's gang back into gubernatorial mansions, but it will be fun to see Gary Johnson at Senate...

[Niemeyerite]

I'd have voted for Johson

Hoeever, I didn't like seeing Michael Morre losing that election. He'd be the best governor ever (not joking)

[Miles]

I'm only saddened that my beloved Rachel isn't on this update.

Rachel did the New Mexico segment!

But yeah, Chris and Chuck kinda dominated this update!

[Niemeyerite]

So...

[Miles]

Rachel: Lets go to Montana, where we have one of the closest-watched Senate races in the county. Democrat Denise Junaeu, the state education superintendent, ousted Senator Max Baucus in the Democratic primary. Despite a 40% approval rating, the entrenched Baucus ran again. Juneau didn't necessarily run to Baucus' right, but she frmaed herself as a more populist alternative; she won the primary with 54% to 44% for Baucus.
Tonight, as the polls suggested Juneau is a tight race with Republican Steve Daines, who also ran against Senator Jon Tester in 2012. This seat has been in Democratic hands for 101 years, since 1913; well see if Democrats can continue that streak despite the Republican lean of Montana. Juneau has very strong support among native Americans, but Daines has tried to tie her to Obama, despite her outsider status.

Chuck: Denise Juneau could be one of the next rising stars in the Democratic party if she wins tonight. She'd be the first Native American Senator since Nighthorse Campbell in Colorado. Speaking of Colorado, we have our results in from the Centennial State. Governor John Hickenlooper is very popular and will be reelected in a landslide. Republicans ran tea party candidate Marilyn Musgrave, who served in Congress for three terms. Musgrave was known for her conservative firebrand style and was swept out in the 2008 wave. Governor Hickenlooper approvals were always above 50% and some Republicans insiders privately acknowledge that their party punted on this race  and conceded the nomination to the unelectable Musgrave.

But, the race for Senate here was a bit closer. Senator Mark Udall faced a well-funded challenge but will not end up like his cousin in New Mexico. Congressman Scott Tipton vacated his House seat to challenge Udall; he was mostly a self-funder.

Chris: Now returns are in from Iowa. In the Senate race, Senator Tom Harkin, probably one of the last few real populists left in the Senate, crushes Republican Bob Vander Plaats. Vander Plaats was considered the "Michele Bachmann" of Iowa. Still, his appeal was pretty limited to the conservative western portion of the state. We had two fimiliar faces in the Governor's race. Former Iowa First Lady Christie Vilsack ran against Governor Terry Branstad. Branstad will be winning a 6th term, but he acknowledged that Vilsack was one of his toughest opponents.

[Niemeyerite]

Oh, please, let Denise Junaeu win! She'd be one of the most interesting senators in the History of the USA... while Steve Daines would be the most boring, loser ever.

[RodPresident]

This update is more equally distributed than previous. The fun is that we have two gubernatorial fights in Colorado...I'd like to see updates of at-large house districts. Will Dave Freudenthal win re-election in WY-AL?

[MAINEiac4434]

This is great, but you realize there is no way LePage is getting reelected, right?

[Svensson]

Started reading this timeline series of yours yesterday and just got through it all. Gotta say, I'm really loving it - particularly Johnson in the Senate.

Keep up the good work, man! I'm glued.

[RedPrometheus]

Great timeline! Looking forward to the next update

[Miles]

I'm aiming for an update tomorrow evening.


Thanks for the comments!

[Niemeyerite]

You promissed it...

[Miles]

You promissed it...

It's coming!

Its still Friday

[Miles]

Chuck: And now just a few more quick updates. We have Wyoming reporting now. The final retirement of this year was Senator Mike Enzi. He announced just weeks before the filling date. The Republican nominee was Colin Simpson, son of the former Senator Alan Simpson. Simpson emerged victorious from a primary with former Congresswoman Cynthia Lummis, winning by about 10 points. In the general, Simpson had only a handful of third-party opponents who accounted for 10% of the vote. Governor Matt Mead opted to run for a second term in the Governor's mansion; he wins easily in a rematch against Democrat Leslie Peterson. Finally, Congressman Dave Freudenthal cruises to another term in the House, despite Wyoming's overwhelmingly Republican tilt. Freudenthal defeats former State Auditor Rita Meyer by 38 points, as he maintains a tremendous amount of crossover support.

Rachel: And we have a few more close races to report. We can call that Minnesota race for Senator Betty McCollum. She defeats Governor Tim Pawlenty to win a full 6-year term in the Senate. Finally, we only had one statewide race in Nevada. For the Governor's Democrats had a strong recruit in Secretary of State Ross Miller. Still, the incumbent Brian Sandoval remained popular. While they both traded leads in the polls, Sandoval will be coming out ahead tonight.