2014: Midterms, Presidential Contests and beyond

[morgieb]

Frudenthal should've run for the Senate.

[Miles]

This was an abnormally busy week for me...more over the weekend.

[Jerseyrules]

This was an abnormally busy week for me...more over the weekend.

Looking forward to it

[Miles]

BUMP

Coming up.

Its Mardi Gras weekend....this is technically a five-day "weekend" for me! haha

Julio, I really don't forget about this

[Niemeyerite]

OK, Miles, thanks.

And sorry for being that annoying.

[I'm JewCon in name only.]

This is an awesome timeline Miles

[Miles]

Update tonight, come hell or high water.

[Miles]

Rachel: One of the most unexpectedly fun-to-watch states this year was Nebraska. Despite being solidly red, both its statewide races made headlines this year. Senator Bob Kerrey, a Democrat, sought a return to Capitol Hill this year. While, Kerrey was in a unique position to challenge Senator Mike Johanns, the Republican will still be winning here. While Kerrey had a good amount of crossover appeal, some thought he had lost touch with the state.

The Governors race featured another ex-Senator seeking a comeback. When then-Governor Dave Heinemann was elected to the Senate, Lieutenant Governor Rick Sheehy took his place. Sheehy could never much match the popularity of his predecessor. Enter former Senator Chuck Hagel. Rather than challenging Sheehy in the Republican, Hagel, a moderate Republican ran as an Independent, ultimately earning the endorsement of many state Democrats. Going into this election, Hagel had strong favorables, at 55/26, while Sheehy's job approval rating was 45/36. BY comparison, Heinemann left office with a 62% approval rating. Hagel's 56-42 win over Sheehy tonight is a function of his positive image and his unusual amount of crossover support. From a structural perspective, Nebreska may be the most "Independent" state in the nation; it has a nonpartisan Legislature and now an Independent Governor.

Chris: And over in South Dakota, Senator Tim Johnson is going back to Congress. He's usually squeaked out wins, but in 2008 he won with 62%. Tonight won't be that much of a landslide, but Johnson defeats former Governor Mike Rounds by 7 points. Rounds had mediocre favorable ratings when he left office, 44/42; Johnson's by contrast are 51/41. Incumbents polling over 50% tend not to lose, and tonight, thats the certainly the case here. Despite running in a state that gave Romney 68% in 2012 (thanks to native son John Thune's VP position on the ticket), Johnson knew how to frame himself to win here.

Chuck: In Idaho, Governor Butch Otter did not seek a third term. Republican Congressman Mike Simpson ran against former Congressman Walt Minnick. Even though Minnick ran significantly ahead of most Idaho Democrats, we have word that the Republican will be winning by 8 points.
The Senate race was less noteworthy. Remember Congressman Larry LaRocco? Well, he ran in a rematch agaoinst Senator Jim Risch.  Risch is a popular figure in the state; he holds a 57/28 approval rating. The result tonight is much the same as the 2008 race.

[sentinel]

Labeling things instead of just putting photos is a suggestion that I would make for this

[Miles]

Labeling things instead of just putting photos is a suggestion that I would make for this

I like that.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

So, when does the Pacific Coast report in?

[Miles]

So, when does the Pacific Coast report in?

Towards the end...just like on election night! haha

[Miles]

Here's where we stand:

SENATE



NET CHANGE- ZERO


GUBERNATORIAL



NET CHANGE- D+2

[Miles]

Ok, the next (and possibly last update of Election Night 2014) will be Wednesday.

I will have House results also. Instead of the House map I drew for Election 2012, I'll be using the real districts. I'll use the national Congressional map that I worked on with other forum members. I'll just make up my own maps for the three states that aren't done with redistricting yet (FL, NY, NH).

[Niemeyerite]

Thanks, Miles

[TrapperHawk]

Excellent. I've read through the topic and I think that it's amazing. It's my favorite timeline for sure, and I can't wait to see the conclusion!

[Miles]

Update later tonight.

[Miles]

Rachel: And now we're really scraping the bottom of the barrel; we only have a few more races that still haven't reported. Here are a few of them that we just got in.
In Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley will keep the Democrats' Gubernatorial winning streak alive by defeating Republican Chris Dudley. Dudley has hoped to face incumbent John Kitzhaber in a rematch, but Kiitzhaber decided to forgo a fourth non-consecutive term. Part of that may have been because of his dull approval rating; despite winning narrowly in 2010, Kitzhaber's approval rating sat at 40/48. By contrast, Merkley had a solid 45/32 rating as a Senator. Merkley's popularity really helped Democrats hold the statehouse; hypothetical exit polling showed Duddley actually leading Kitzhaber 44-42.

The bad news for Democrats is that they were left with an open seat to defend. Enter GOP Congressman Greg Walden. While the the national Republican party is unpopular in Oregon, 36% see it favorably to 52% who don't, Walden was able to distance himself from his party. Early polling showed him only slightly trailing the Democratic nominee, David Wu. Then, in the last week of the election, news broke of Wu's erratic behavior at a Halloween party and rumors spread of possibly inappropriate relations that Wu had with some of his staffers, leading voters to question Wu's judgement.
The firm PPP confirmed this. Going into October, before Halloween, Wu led Walden 48-44. In PPP's last poll, released a few days ago, Walden had pulled out to a 50-43 lead. Tonight's results are in line with PPP's projection, as Wu's personal scandal was too much for him to overcome on election day.

Chris: And in Hawaii, we have another Governor elected in 2010 leaving office. This seems to be a bit of a trend. Former Congressman Charles Djou ousts Democrat Neil Abercombie. Despite its deeply blue status, Abercrombie had a 38/51 approval spread. Its not often that incumbents polling at 38% get reelected and that surely seems to be the case tonight.

Sen. Mark Begich celebrates re-election in Anchorage with colleague Sen. Lisa Murkowski, one of his strongest endorsements; Palin concedes in Wasilla.

Chuck: Here we have one of the most anticipated contests of the night. While we don't have the geographical breakdowns yet, we do have most precincts reporting in Alaska. We can say that Senator Mark Begich will be holding off Governor Palin by double digits. This is truly a a remarkable result considering the millions that Palin was able bring in from PACs and outside sources. In fact, that was Begich's central campaign strategy; he tried to portray Palin as out of touch with Alaska, and the millions that Palin received from outside the state surely bolstered Begich's argument.

Also, Begich tried to frame himself as an independent voice for the state as he called Palin's views too extreme and controversial.  Polling showed that this was largely successful. 48% considered Begich to be 'mainstream' while only 34% considered his views extreme. For Palin, these numbers were the opposite. 30% of the electorate consider her 'mainstream' compared to 57% who consider her views too extreme. This was really a pivotal race for both parties and, had the Republicans gone with a less controversial candidate, they could have flipped this seat.

On the Governor's side, Sean Parnell remains popular. He turns back a challenge from Sitka mayor Scott McAdams.

[Miles]

Before I cover the last handful of statewide races, here are House results! Enjoy!

R- 229
D- 206

[Niemeyerite]

I'd like to see some detailed results from some intersting House races!

[Miles]

Because some on this forum (from my own party) have chosen to personally attack me because of my stances on a few issues, I will be suspending this TL. I am deeply dissapointed that my views and work are not welcomed here. I will resume when I feel that my voice on this forum is respected and valued.


Cheers,
Miles

[RodPresident]

I'm very saddened because suspension of thread. Miles, you made a hard and good work, mapping counties and districts. Only thing that I have to consider is that you forgot was California gubernatorial election. I hope to you get back on the track to talk about new Congress, off-year elections and 2016 primaries.

[morgieb]

Why exactly?

[Miles]

Okay. Problem solved.

Bottom line: I need to take things less personally.

Why exactly?

Just some of my conservative Dixiecrat social views were causing controversy. 

[Miles]

Okay, now that everything is back in accord, I'll post an update Wednesday.

It will be really anything I haven't yet covered in 2014; I don't have that much left of the midterms. I believe I only need to post Senate/Governor races in AZ and CA and make an official call in MT.

I'll also probably have a separate post dealing with the runoff between Landrieu and Dardenne in LA (I know, who will win that ?! lol).

Also, feel free to ask about specific House races from the map.

Cheers,
Miles