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| | |-+  2014: Midterms, Presidential Contests and beyond
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Author Topic: 2014: Midterms, Presidential Contests and beyond  (Read 44464 times)
Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #100 on: March 12, 2012, 02:43:12 pm »
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thanks, Miles
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
TrapperHawk
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« Reply #101 on: March 12, 2012, 03:27:04 pm »
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Well, I am glad that you're not discontinuing this timeline as I do enjoy it so. Can't wait for the next update! Especially to see the results for the MT Senate race, that one's a real nail-biter. I always like to see Democrats do well in Montana, so hopefully that will bring some good luck for the Dem in that race. Hah!
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Svensson
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« Reply #102 on: March 12, 2012, 07:16:53 pm »
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Well, I am glad that you're not discontinuing this timeline as I do enjoy it so. Can't wait for the next update! Especially to see the results for the MT Senate race, that one's a real nail-biter. I always like to see Democrats do well in Montana, so hopefully that will bring some good luck for the Dem in that race. Hah!

Indeed, I am under the impression that Montana Dems are the best Dems, unless their name is Max. I mean, come on - Schweitzer, Bullock, and Tester all out of one state. Wink

Glad you're sticking around, Miles.
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #103 on: March 14, 2012, 09:24:16 pm »
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I'm very saddened because suspension of thread. Miles, you made a hard and good work, mapping counties and districts. Only thing that I have to consider is that you forgot was California gubernatorial election. I hope to you get back on the track to talk about new Congress, off-year elections and 2016 primaries.

EDIT: just saw the last post!  Good to hear!
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Drink Too Much:
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=147022.0

An Empire of Stars and Stripes:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=156974.0

Quote
FOOL!  I AM Cathcon!

Endorsements:
President: Chris Christie
Senate:
Governor:

------------------------------



[img]https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/474x/4a/6a/03/4a6a039f4e813796b7731510707a5e4b.jpg[
Miles
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« Reply #104 on: March 15, 2012, 01:48:09 am »
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Rachel: And we're back! We only have a trio of statewide races still out, so lets get to it! In that Montana Senate race, Democrat Denise Juneau will be clinging onto a win over Republican Steve Daines. Juneau ousted entrenched incumbent Max Baucus in the primary. Despite Baucus' key committee positions, this Juneau's primary win was probably good news for Democrats as hypothetical exit polls showed in losing to Daines. Juneau won thanks to the popularity of Congressman Brian Schweitzer, who went to bat for her during the campaign, as well as the sky-high native American turnout she was able to draw.

Chris: And in the Arizona Governor's race to replace the infamous Jan Brewer, Congressman Jeff Flake holds the seat for the Republicans against Democrat Rodney Glassman. While Brewer doesn't leave office as a particularly popular Governor, Arizona is hard state for Democrats to crack in these midterm elections. Finally our last race was in California, where incumbent Jerry Brown will serve his fourth and final term. He turns back a challenge from Republican Congressman David Dreier, who lost his seat during redistricting in 2012. Brown is a popular Governor; the last poll put his approval rating at a healthy 53/37 spread. Tonight's results seem to be a reflection of that.

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RedPrometheus
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« Reply #105 on: March 15, 2012, 05:19:39 am »
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Great update! Glad that Juneau won!

I'm not sure though if Brown would run again in 2014...he would be 76 years old by then.
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E: -7,74
S: -5,22
TrapperHawk
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« Reply #106 on: March 15, 2012, 05:35:16 pm »
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Yes... Juneau and Brown, won so I'm a happy camper. I guess my good luck wish for Montana worked after all. (Heh.) Excellent work!
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #107 on: March 15, 2012, 05:48:10 pm »
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Senator Juneau. I love it.
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
Jerseyrules
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« Reply #108 on: March 15, 2012, 07:16:41 pm »
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I love the thought of your AZ race; "Do you really want to have a Flake as governor?"
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Drink Too Much:
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=147022.0

An Empire of Stars and Stripes:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=156974.0

Quote
FOOL!  I AM Cathcon!

Endorsements:
President: Chris Christie
Senate:
Governor:

------------------------------



[img]https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/474x/4a/6a/03/4a6a039f4e813796b7731510707a5e4b.jpg[
Jerseyrules
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« Reply #109 on: March 15, 2012, 07:17:36 pm »
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Great update! Glad that Juneau won!

I'm not sure though if Brown would run again in 2014...he would be 76 years old by then.

Brown hinted in the 2010 debate that if he won he would seek reelection
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Drink Too Much:
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=147022.0

An Empire of Stars and Stripes:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=156974.0

Quote
FOOL!  I AM Cathcon!

Endorsements:
President: Chris Christie
Senate:
Governor:

------------------------------



[img]https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/474x/4a/6a/03/4a6a039f4e813796b7731510707a5e4b.jpg[
Miles
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« Reply #110 on: March 17, 2012, 03:51:44 pm »
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LANDRIEU WINS LA RUNOFF, PRESERVES SENATE BALANCE



Rachel: Welcome back to our last mini-segment of election 2014! After failing to capture a Senate majority last month, Republicans had one last chance to pick-off a Senate seat, that of Mary Landrieu in Louisiana. While this one seat wouldn't flip the chamber for the GOP, it would nonetheless be somewhat of a constellation prize. Despite finishing first in the jungle primary, Landrieu was forced into a runoff after failing to secure more than 50%; this would be the Senator's third runoff.

Chuck: The Republicans had this past month a month to coalesce over their nominee, Lieutenant Governor Jay Dardenne. However, the jungle primary was particularly brutal on Republicans. Dardenne finished with 30%; the other major Republican, Billy Nungesser, got 26%. The two Republicans have long had a bitter relationship towards each other which was only amplified in this campaign. Nungesser refused to endorse Dardenne in the general election, we have him here quoted as saying "Dardenne is a typical politician masquerading as a conservative. He doesn't understand us down here on the coast. He's too much of a Baton Rouge insider. At least Mary has been able to help us get a fair hearing with the feds.". 'Pretty harsh.

Chris: Well, its hard to beat a Landrieu in Louisiana, and its really hard if there's that kind of infighting among Republicans. If you look at the map, the vast majority of Nungesser's parishes along the coast have actually flipped to Landrieu instead of Dardenne. Looks like Dardenne was able to win in Baton Rouge, but thats where his base is. I think Landrieu pulls this out. Louisiana Democrats have always been the most conservative Democrats and I think Mary Landrieu keeps up that tradition.

Rachel: And we have an official AP call! Mary Landrieu will be going back to the Senate. She defeats Jay Dardenne by about 2 percentage points. I have to give the Landrieu campaign credit here; this is a state where the President has an approval rating off less than 40%. A win like this is pretty impressive.

Chuck: Well, Landrieu was able to win by appealing to constituencies that vote Republican in Presidential races. The Republican infighting here was big; thats why she was able to do so well in the typically Republican coastal parishes. The Landrieu name is of course very popular in the greater New Orelans area. Look at Jefferson parish, which makes up the western New Orleans suburbs. President Obama took only 36% here, but Landrieu was able to win the parish with 52%.

So, with this last race in,these are our national maps:

SENATE



The 114th Senate will have 53 Democrats and 47 Republicans. It will have 14 freshmen who were elected last month (who's names are highlighted). A quick note about Wisconsin; Senator  Ron Johnson, who is now Governor-elect Johnson, said he will appoint former Governor Tommy Thompson to fill out the remaining 2 years of the Class III Senate term.

GOVERNORS


After this cycle, the Republicans retain a majority of Governorships. The GOP holds 26 states, Democrats have 22 and 2 states, Rhode Island and Nebraska, have Independent Governors. On our chart, Governors who have highlighted years will be term-limited next cycle.

Chris: So from our entire panel here at MSNBC, we hope you enjoyed our coverage of Election 2014. 'Ya know, the race for President in 2016 basically started after these midterms finished. We hope you will stay with us for what looks like a very exciting Presidential campaign!
« Last Edit: March 17, 2012, 05:02:58 pm by MilesC56 »Logged


Sanchez Stands With Rand!
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« Reply #111 on: March 17, 2012, 04:14:16 pm »
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And were off to 2016 Smiley
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Debbie Wasserman Schultz stole my car, embezzled my life savings, killed my parents, and raped my dog. Lois Frankel was the getaway driver.

Miles
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« Reply #112 on: March 17, 2012, 04:15:14 pm »
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And were off to 2016 Smiley

Not quite yet Wink

We still have a few races in 2015!
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Miles
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« Reply #113 on: March 17, 2012, 05:06:34 pm »
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MS-GOV: TAYLOR EXTREMELY POPULAR, STRONG FOR REELECTION


PPP- There will probably be a handful of competitive statewide races this year, but the contest for Mississippi Governor will not be one of them. Our February 2015 survey finds Gene Taylor to be one of the most popular Governors in the county. 58% of voters like Taylor's performance while only 29% don't. He leads a quartet of potential Republican challengers by double-digits and maintains considerable crossover support.

Do you approve of Governor Taylor's work in office?
Yes- 58%
No- 29%
Unsure- 13%

If 2011 Republican nominee Tate Reeves ran for a rematch who would you vote for?
Taylor- 55%
Reeves- 36%

If this next election, was between Governor Taylor (D) and former Congressman Chip Pickering (R), who would you vote for?
Taylor- 56%
Pickering- 32%

If this next election, was between Governor Taylor (D) and State House Speaker Phil Gunn (R), who would you vote for?
Taylor- 57%
Gunn- 34%

If this next election, was between Governor Taylor (D) and Congressman Gregg Harper (R), who would you vote for?
Taylor- 52%
Harper- 41%

What party are you registered with?
Democrat- 40%
Republican- 45%
Independent- 15%

Who did you vote for in 2012?
Barack Obama- 41%
Mitt Romney- 52%
Other/Don't remember- 7%

When breaking down his approval along party lines, its easy to see why Taylor is so popular. Among Democrats, he stands at a 79/12 spread; Taylor has taken a centrist approach to governing, but he clearly hasn't antagonized his own party in the process. With Republicans, he is on only slightly negative territory; 35% of Republicans like Taylor whereas 46% don't. And finally, while Independents only made up 15% of this sample, that group likes his work by a 62/25 spread.

Our sample voted for Romney in 2012 by a 52/41 margin, which is close to Romney's actual 55/44 victory in Mississippi. Taylor's crossover support is impressive, especially considering the sharply polarized electorate in Mississippi. In every match-up Taylor holds 27%-32% of Romney voters while consolidating the Obama vote. Despite the conservative bend of Mississippi, Republicans would probably be wiser to focus their resources elsewhere.
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #114 on: March 17, 2012, 06:49:14 pm »
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Gene Taylor should run for something in Real Life... Mississippi needs some democrats in elected positions, even if they are DINOS.
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
I'm JewCon in name only.
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« Reply #115 on: March 17, 2012, 07:40:22 pm »
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This is an AWESOME timeline Miles! Smiley
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Pingvin
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« Reply #116 on: March 18, 2012, 09:37:38 am »
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This is an AWESOME timeline Miles! Smiley
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morgieb
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« Reply #117 on: March 19, 2012, 06:55:05 am »
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Who's speculated to run in 2016?

This is a fantastic timeline, btw. Up there with my favourites on the site.
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #118 on: March 19, 2012, 01:22:23 pm »
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Who's speculated to run in 2016?

This is a fantastic timeline, btw. Up there with my favourites on the site.

Top 3

Democrats:
O'Malley
Warner
Cuomo

Republicans:
Jindal
Rubio
Christie
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #119 on: March 19, 2012, 02:29:36 pm »
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Rand Paul / Marco Rubio 2016!
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Drink Too Much:
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=147022.0

An Empire of Stars and Stripes:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=156974.0

Quote
FOOL!  I AM Cathcon!

Endorsements:
President: Chris Christie
Senate:
Governor:

------------------------------



[img]https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/474x/4a/6a/03/4a6a039f4e813796b7731510707a5e4b.jpg[
Nagas
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« Reply #120 on: March 19, 2012, 05:35:43 pm »
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Still hoping for Schweitzer.
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RodPresident
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« Reply #121 on: March 20, 2012, 05:54:54 pm »
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I'd put Gary Johnson running under Paulite wing. In Democratic Party, Schweitzer could be a strong candidate, like Sebelius running too. Vice President Beebe can have a good way towards Presidency, although he'd be more useful running to Senate.
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Fidelix 28
Sanchez Stands With Rand!
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« Reply #122 on: March 20, 2012, 08:20:02 pm »
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I'd put Gary Johnson running under Paulite wing.
Im not sure if he would challenge Rand. But if he were not to run, then he could run.
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A Hybrid of Pat Buchanan and Bob Dylan.
Debbie Wasserman Schultz stole my car, embezzled my life savings, killed my parents, and raped my dog. Lois Frankel was the getaway driver.

RodPresident
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« Reply #123 on: March 20, 2012, 10:37:18 pm »
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In this thread, Paul could throw hat in if things go enough bad to assure him re-election in Kentucky. I'd like to see George Clooney in this thread too, challenging Paul or trying to get Boxer's seat.
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Fidelix 28
Miles
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« Reply #124 on: March 24, 2012, 04:35:54 pm »
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VITTER AHEAD IN LA, LUALLEN IN KY


PPP- Fresh on the heels of out Mississippi poll last week, we have results from the 2 other states with contests this year. Both Louisiana and Kentucky will be open seats this year, as incumbents Bobby Jindal and Steve Beshear are both term-limited.
 
Barack Obama is unpopular in both states. In Louisiana, he stands at a 35/56 spread; he posts slightly better but similar numbers in Kentucky, 37/54. Still, despite the President's job approval, both races have the potential become competitive.

In Louisiana, when asked about a gubernatorial run, Vitter said the he was "probably leaning towards going that route." As a Senator, he has decent approval ratings; 54% like his job to 40% who don't. Its worth noting that Vitter is a very polarizing figure, as  less than 10% of Democrats cross over to vote for him in any of our samples while he has near-universal support from Republicans; this is interesting when compared to his senior Senator Mary Landireu, who was able to attract a great deal of crossover support in her recent reelection.

Also, Vitter's prostitution scandal seems to be far in the rear-view mirror for LA voters; 50% consider him a man of "good values" while 38% don't and 12% are unsure.

The candidate that polls the best for Democrats is, not surprisingly, a Landrieu. We tested 3 Democrats against Vitter: New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu, political analyst James Carville and attorney Caroline Fayard. Mayor Landrieu is the only Democrat who comes within 10 points of Vitter.

Do you approve of Governor Bobby Jindal's job as Governor?
Yes- 53%
No- 37%

If this next election was between Senator David Vitter (R) and Mayor Mitch Landrieu (D), who would you vote for?
Vitter- 48%
Landrieu- 43%

If this next election was between Senator David Vitter (R) and James Carville (D), who would you vote for?
Vitter- 51%
Carville- 39%

If this next election was between Senator David Vitter (R) and Caroline Fayard (D), who would you vote for?
Vitter- 50%
Fayard- 38%

What party are you registered with?
Democrat- 45%
Republican- 38%
Independent- 17%

Who did you vote for in 2012?
Barack Obama- 38%
Mitt Romney- 56%
Unsure/forgot- 6%

Actual 2012 result: 58/40 Romney.



In Kentucky, Democrat Steve Beshear is very popular, as such, his party is favored to hold the Governor's mansion. We tested 2 Democrats and 2 Republicans. For the Democrats, former state Auditor Crit Luallen is considered a wide favorite for the nomination, should she run. If Luallen opts to run for Senate in 2016 instead of Governor, we also tested Congressman Ben Chandler. For the GOP, we polled the only elected statewide Republican, Ag Commissioner James Comer, and we also tried Congressman Brett Guthrie.

Do you approve of Governor Steve Beshear's job as Governor?
Yes- 54%
No- 33%

If this next election was between Crit Luallen (D) and James Comer (R), who would you vote for?
Luallen- 53%
Comer- 39%

If this next election was between Crit Luallen (D) and Brett Guthrie (R), who would you vote for?
Luallen- 51%
Comer- 35%

If this next election was between Ben Chandler (D) and James Comer (R), who would you vote for?
Chandler- 46%
Comer- 42%

If this next election was between Ben Chandler (D) and Brett Guthrie (R), who would you vote for?
Chandler- 47%
Guthrie- 40%

What party are you registered with?
Democrat- 51%
Republican- 37%
Independent- 12%

Who did you vote for in 2012?
Barack Obama- 41%
Mitt Romney- 53%
Unsure/forgot- 6%

Actual 2012 result: 56/43 Romney.

We also looked at the popularity of both of Kentucky's Senators. Freshly elected Democrats Alison Lundergan Grimes is on slightly positive ground at 37/30; she was only sworn in a few months ago, so many voters haven't had enough time to develop an opinion about her. Senator Rand Paul, on the other hand, has a 40/46 approval rating. This would leave him vulnerable in a Presidential year like 2016, especially of either Luallen or Chandler opt to run for Senate.
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