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| | |-+  2014: Midterms, Presidential Contests and beyond
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Author Topic: 2014: Midterms, Presidential Contests and beyond  (Read 32527 times)
Miles
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« Reply #125 on: March 24, 2012, 04:35:54 pm »
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VITTER AHEAD IN LA, LUALLEN IN KY


PPP- Fresh on the heels of out Mississippi poll last week, we have results from the 2 other states with contests this year. Both Louisiana and Kentucky will be open seats this year, as incumbents Bobby Jindal and Steve Beshear are both term-limited.
 
Barack Obama is unpopular in both states. In Louisiana, he stands at a 35/56 spread; he posts slightly better but similar numbers in Kentucky, 37/54. Still, despite the President's job approval, both races have the potential become competitive.

In Louisiana, when asked about a gubernatorial run, Vitter said the he was "probably leaning towards going that route." As a Senator, he has decent approval ratings; 54% like his job to 40% who don't. Its worth noting that Vitter is a very polarizing figure, as  less than 10% of Democrats cross over to vote for him in any of our samples while he has near-universal support from Republicans; this is interesting when compared to his senior Senator Mary Landireu, who was able to attract a great deal of crossover support in her recent reelection.

Also, Vitter's prostitution scandal seems to be far in the rear-view mirror for LA voters; 50% consider him a man of "good values" while 38% don't and 12% are unsure.

The candidate that polls the best for Democrats is, not surprisingly, a Landrieu. We tested 3 Democrats against Vitter: New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu, political analyst James Carville and attorney Caroline Fayard. Mayor Landrieu is the only Democrat who comes within 10 points of Vitter.

Do you approve of Governor Bobby Jindal's job as Governor?
Yes- 53%
No- 37%

If this next election was between Senator David Vitter (R) and Mayor Mitch Landrieu (D), who would you vote for?
Vitter- 48%
Landrieu- 43%

If this next election was between Senator David Vitter (R) and James Carville (D), who would you vote for?
Vitter- 51%
Carville- 39%

If this next election was between Senator David Vitter (R) and Caroline Fayard (D), who would you vote for?
Vitter- 50%
Fayard- 38%

What party are you registered with?
Democrat- 45%
Republican- 38%
Independent- 17%

Who did you vote for in 2012?
Barack Obama- 38%
Mitt Romney- 56%
Unsure/forgot- 6%

Actual 2012 result: 58/40 Romney.



In Kentucky, Democrat Steve Beshear is very popular, as such, his party is favored to hold the Governor's mansion. We tested 2 Democrats and 2 Republicans. For the Democrats, former state Auditor Crit Luallen is considered a wide favorite for the nomination, should she run. If Luallen opts to run for Senate in 2016 instead of Governor, we also tested Congressman Ben Chandler. For the GOP, we polled the only elected statewide Republican, Ag Commissioner James Comer, and we also tried Congressman Brett Guthrie.

Do you approve of Governor Steve Beshear's job as Governor?
Yes- 54%
No- 33%

If this next election was between Crit Luallen (D) and James Comer (R), who would you vote for?
Luallen- 53%
Comer- 39%

If this next election was between Crit Luallen (D) and Brett Guthrie (R), who would you vote for?
Luallen- 51%
Comer- 35%

If this next election was between Ben Chandler (D) and James Comer (R), who would you vote for?
Chandler- 46%
Comer- 42%

If this next election was between Ben Chandler (D) and Brett Guthrie (R), who would you vote for?
Chandler- 47%
Guthrie- 40%

What party are you registered with?
Democrat- 51%
Republican- 37%
Independent- 12%

Who did you vote for in 2012?
Barack Obama- 41%
Mitt Romney- 53%
Unsure/forgot- 6%

Actual 2012 result: 56/43 Romney.

We also looked at the popularity of both of Kentucky's Senators. Freshly elected Democrats Alison Lundergan Grimes is on slightly positive ground at 37/30; she was only sworn in a few months ago, so many voters haven't had enough time to develop an opinion about her. Senator Rand Paul, on the other hand, has a 40/46 approval rating. This would leave him vulnerable in a Presidential year like 2016, especially of either Luallen or Chandler opt to run for Senate.
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Miles
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« Reply #126 on: April 02, 2012, 10:03:14 am »
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I'll shoot for an update...Wednesday.
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IDS Legislator Pingvin
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« Reply #127 on: April 02, 2012, 11:03:11 am »
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I'll shoot for an update...Wednesday.
YAAAAY!
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #128 on: April 02, 2012, 12:04:39 pm »
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Awesome TL!  Smiley
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #129 on: April 02, 2012, 10:33:21 pm »
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In this thread, Paul could throw hat in if things go enough bad to assure him re-election in Kentucky. I'd like to see George Clooney in this thread too, challenging Paul or trying to get Boxer's seat.

Where is Clooney politically by the way?
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Drink Too Much:
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=147022.0

An Empire of Stars and Stripes:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=156974.0

Quote
FOOL!  I AM Cathcon!

Endorsements:
President: Hillary Clinton
Governor: Brown (CA), Corbett (PA), Scott (FL)
House: Emken (CA)
Other: Rob McCoy (CA Assembly)

---------------------------------------

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« Reply #130 on: April 02, 2012, 10:34:13 pm »
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In this thread, Paul could throw hat in if things go enough bad to assure him re-election in Kentucky. I'd like to see George Clooney in this thread too, challenging Paul or trying to get Boxer's seat.

Where is Clooney politically by the way?

Very liberal. No way he's going to Kentucky.
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Miles
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« Reply #131 on: April 08, 2012, 01:42:28 pm »
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I know I'm waaaay overdue, but I'll have a huge 2016 Preisdent update tomorrow!
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ChairmanSanchez
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« Reply #132 on: April 08, 2012, 02:47:30 pm »
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I know I'm waaaay overdue, but I'll have a huge 2016 Preisdent update tomorrow!
Smiley
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If a burial strikes my family as too practical, I'd go for either a viking funeral on one of the Great Lakes or to be sealed up in a tomb with my closest servants and bang-maids so they may wait on my every need in the afterlife.
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« Reply #133 on: April 08, 2012, 05:35:30 pm »
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I know I'm waaaay overdue, but I'll have a huge 2016 Preisdent update tomorrow!

I hope that's true :p
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
Miles
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« Reply #134 on: April 08, 2012, 06:22:56 pm »
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I know I'm waaaay overdue, but I'll have a huge 2016 Preisdent update tomorrow!

I hope that's true :p

Lol, it will be quite true!
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Miles
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« Reply #135 on: April 09, 2012, 10:10:04 pm »
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JINDAL, CUOMO FIRST TO ENTER 2016 RACE

Politico- This week, major candidates from both parties declared their intentions to succeed term limited President Barack Obama. With Vice President Beebe not seeking the Presidency, both sides will see competitive primaries. Governors Bobby Jindal and Andrew Cuomo, who are both popular in their respective states, both announced this week that they would seek the Presidency.
In Jindal's speech, the Governor was very critical of the President. "2016 will be our chance to elect a President who's right on the issues. All throughout his eight years, President Obama has ignored the very real solutions that Republicans have proposed. Instead of working with us, Obama and Congressional Democrats have pushed a liberal agenda that is just not right for our country."
"My governing philosophy has always been about choosing liberty and freedom over regulations and bureaucrats. In my view, the strength of America is not found in our government. It is found in the compassionate hearts and enterprising spirit of our citizens. Before I became Governor, much of our state's public programs were broken after a century of corrupt, Democratic rule. However, in Louisiana, Republicans have been the party of real and meaningful change. As Governor, I've worked to lower taxes, reformed our pension and education systems and cleared the way for business to invest in Louisiana. As a result, we have a more responsible government and an 5.7% unemployment rate, under the national average."
"Growing up in India, my father had seen extreme poverty. He would tell me: 'Bobby, Americans can do anything.' I still believe that holds true to this day. That is why, as my term as Governor draws to and end, I will be seeking the Presidency of the United States."


Governor Cuomo was more supportive of the President and vowed to continue the work of President Obama.
"I don't there's any question: President Obama and Vice President Beebe have been a good team for America. As Governor, it was great to know that I was working with a strong President who understood the needs of my state."
"When I took over, New York State is upside down and backwards; high taxes and low performance. The New York State government was at one time a national model. Then, unfortunately, it's a national disgrace. Working across party lines, we put New York on a path back to economic solvency.
Our next President needs to now how to forge bipartisan solutions with a likely divided Congress. Thats exactly what I've done with a split legislature here in New York."
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« Reply #136 on: April 10, 2012, 06:12:28 pm »
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I don't like these candidates Tongue
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
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« Reply #137 on: April 15, 2012, 08:00:26 pm »
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I know Jindal, but who the heck is Cuomo?
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I LIKE IKE!
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« Reply #138 on: April 15, 2012, 08:03:42 pm »
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I know Jindal, but who the heck is Cuomo?

The governor of New York.
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Miles
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« Reply #139 on: April 15, 2012, 08:14:57 pm »
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I don't like these candidates Tongue

They'll be more!
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morgieb
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« Reply #140 on: April 18, 2012, 01:01:27 am »
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While I really like this TL, am I the only one that feels it's too kind to the Democrats?

Ones I can think of:

Landrieu's win (mainly because of the Obama years)
The margin of Pryor's win (ditto)
Juneau's win
Grimes's win (see Landrieu, Pryor)
Goodwin's win (ditto)

Also semi-surprised that Lindsey Graham won.

Still a good timeline though. Well done.
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Miles
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« Reply #141 on: April 18, 2012, 02:35:03 am »
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While I really like this TL, am I the only one that feels it's too kind to the Democrats?

Ones I can think of:

Landrieu's win (mainly because of the Obama years)
The margin of Pryor's win (ditto)
Juneau's win
Grimes's win (see Landrieu, Pryor)
Goodwin's win (ditto)

Also semi-surprised that Lindsey Graham won.

Still a good timeline though. Well done.

Yes, I've often noticed that myself.

I'm very favorable to southern Democrats, since I identify with them.
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Nagas
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« Reply #142 on: April 18, 2012, 09:15:28 pm »
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Miles likes to put moderates into power (Dems in the South and Republicans in the Northeast). I'm perfectly ok with this. Smiley
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Miles
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« Reply #143 on: April 21, 2012, 02:30:34 pm »
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I'll update tomorrow...I'm running through a few 2016 scenarios today.
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ōcēlōxōchitl
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« Reply #144 on: April 21, 2012, 02:32:14 pm »
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I'll update tomorrow...I'm running through a few 2016 scenarios today.
*yay*
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IDS Legislator Pingvin
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« Reply #145 on: April 30, 2012, 09:15:35 am »
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Bump!!!
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Miles
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« Reply #146 on: May 03, 2012, 02:16:01 pm »
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I would have updated this on time, but its exam time and I have quite a bit on my plate. I'm still working on a update!
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« Reply #147 on: May 06, 2012, 03:46:24 pm »
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I would have updated this on time, but its exam time and I have quite a bit on my plate. I'm still working on a update!

Take as long as you want, but I expect regular updates come summer Wink
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Drink Too Much:
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=147022.0

An Empire of Stars and Stripes:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=156974.0

Quote
FOOL!  I AM Cathcon!

Endorsements:
President: Hillary Clinton
Governor: Brown (CA), Corbett (PA), Scott (FL)
House: Emken (CA)
Other: Rob McCoy (CA Assembly)

---------------------------------------

Libertarian Internationalist Monarchist
IDS Legislator Pingvin
Pingvin99
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« Reply #148 on: May 12, 2012, 09:38:10 am »
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*fires a flare from signal gun so Miles can see it*
Bump!
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #149 on: May 25, 2012, 01:17:58 am »
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Rachel: Welcome to Election Night 2015! We're so glad you're joining us her on MSNBC for our live coverage of these off-year Gubernatorial elections! Without ado, lets jump into it!

Chris: We only have a few races to cover tonight, but this will still be very telling. The first state where we have returns from is Kentucky. Ever since I've been covering politics, which has been a while, the Republicans could never do well in these Kentucky races. We have 53% of precincts reporting in the Bluegrass State and the Democrat, Crit Luallen is cruising to a win. In fact, the AP is already calling the race for her. The Republicans ran Congressman Geoff Davis. Davis carried his old district across the Ohio border and won in the Republican southern region. Luallen's margins in the eastern coalfields and in the central part of the state gave her a win. With more analysis, we have our own electoral guru Chuck Todd. Chuck, whats your take on this?
Chuck: Well, the outgoing Democratic Governor, Steve Beshear, was very popular. He left office with an almost 65% approval rating, so it isn't very surprising that the Democrats held this seat. The last poll, from SurveyUSA showed Luallen defeating Davis 55-40, that seems pretty accurate as the results roll in. Here's an interesting fact about Kentucky: in the 67 years since 1948, Democrats held the Governorship for 61.

Rachel: Our second state reporting tonight is Mississippi. There, with only 48% of the votes counted, the AP is projecting that Governor Gene Taylor will win reelection by a landslide. Taylor was popular throughout his term as he crafted an image as both a fiscal centrist and a social conservative. That seemed to be a winning combination is Mississippi.
Taylor ran against former Congressman Chip Pickering, who was considered a second-tier opponent in this increasingly Republican state. The RGA spent almost nothing here, as national Republicans realized that they could not overcome Taylor's popularity.

Chuck: Thats right. Going into the election, polls showed that less than 35% of Mississippi voters did not approve of Taylor's job performance; that didn't provide much of a base for Pickering. Another thing to notice is Taylor's old district. Even though he lost by 6 points there in 2010, he's getting 66% in that same area tonight. The voters that know him the best seem to realize that ousting him in 2010 was a mistake.

Chris: Finally, we actually have a competitive race! In Louisiana, we have three well-known faces competing for the Governor's mansion. The Republican establishment got behind Senator David Vitter. After a prostitution scandal in his first term, there appeared to be no place for Vitter in the national GOP leadership, so he went back home to run for Governor. Smart move. However, at the last minute, former Governor Buddy Roemer jumped into the race.
On the other side, Democrats got behind former Clinton campaign adviser James Carville. Carville relied on his folksy and almost comical campaign style to get votes.
Chuck: With 56% of votes counted, a runoff between Vitter and Carville seems likely. Roemer's campaign wasn't able to garner much traction outside his old 4th Congressional district. In the runoff, President Bill Clinton as well has Governor Gene Taylor and Max Sandlin are scheduled to campaign with Carville. Its worth noting that in our exit polls, Governor Jindal, who is now running for President, is leaving office with a 57% approval rating while 39% disapprove.

Rachel: And I hope you'll stay with us for our continuing coverage of these elections!
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