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| |-+  Election What-ifs? (Moderators: Bacon King, Dallasfan65)
| | |-+  2014: Midterms, Presidential Contests and beyond
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Author Topic: 2014: Midterms, Presidential Contests and beyond  (Read 36591 times)
Nagas
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« Reply #175 on: June 02, 2012, 10:24:14 pm »
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Those 5 Republicans are pretty much it.

I'll have the Democrats up soon...I'll have 6.

And the LA Gubernatorial? Smiley
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Miles
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« Reply #176 on: June 02, 2012, 10:33:50 pm »
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Those 5 Republicans are pretty much it.

I'll have the Democrats up soon...I'll have 6.

And the LA Gubernatorial? Smiley

I'll take care of that after I post the Democrats and announce the primary schedule.

For now, going into the runnoff...

PPP polled LA:

Vitter-51%
Carville-44%
Unsure-5%
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« Reply #177 on: June 03, 2012, 12:36:05 am »
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So, just to be clear (I'm unaware of how the runoff system works), is the runoff when the GE would be scheduled in other states, or is the blanket primary the night of elections in other states, with the runoff scheduled for an amount of time afterwards if needed?
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Drink Too Much:
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=147022.0

An Empire of Stars and Stripes:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=156974.0

Quote
FOOL!  I AM Cathcon!

Endorsements:
President: Hillary Clinton
Governor: Brown (CA), Corbett (PA), Scott (FL)
House: Emken (CA)
Other: Rob McCoy (CA Assembly)

---------------------------------------

Libertarian Internationalist Monarchist
Miles
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« Reply #178 on: June 03, 2012, 12:49:36 am »
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So, just to be clear (I'm unaware of how the runoff system works), is the runoff when the GE would be scheduled in other states, or is the blanket primary the night of elections in other states, with the runoff scheduled for an amount of time afterwards if needed?

In LA federal elections, the jungle primary is usually in November (like all the other states), but the runoff is usually at some point in December.
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #179 on: June 03, 2012, 03:41:53 pm »
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So, just to be clear (I'm unaware of how the runoff system works), is the runoff when the GE would be scheduled in other states, or is the blanket primary the night of elections in other states, with the runoff scheduled for an amount of time afterwards if needed?

In LA federal elections, the jungle primary is usually in November (like all the other states), but the runoff is usually at some point in December.

Thanks.  I assume this is what CA has done now.  I honestly don't even remember reading about the switch in the news or anything, or when/how/why we switched to it.  Anyways, great work as always man Wink
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Drink Too Much:
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=147022.0

An Empire of Stars and Stripes:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=156974.0

Quote
FOOL!  I AM Cathcon!

Endorsements:
President: Hillary Clinton
Governor: Brown (CA), Corbett (PA), Scott (FL)
House: Emken (CA)
Other: Rob McCoy (CA Assembly)

---------------------------------------

Libertarian Internationalist Monarchist
Miles
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« Reply #180 on: June 05, 2012, 03:07:24 am »
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2016 PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES

PART II: THE DEMOCRATS


GOV. ANDREW CUOMO (NY)

Endorsements:
-NY Democratic House delegation
-Sen. Jack Markell-DE
-Sen. Charlie Crist-FL
-Sen. Kristen Gillibrand-NY
-Sen. Chuck Schumer-NY
-Sen. Jack Reed-RI
-Gov. Byron Dorgan-ND
-Sen. Pat Leahy-VT
-Gov. Jason Altmire-PA
-Rep. Leonard Boswell-IA
-Sen. Richard Blumenthal-CT
-Ex-Gov. Ed Rendell-PA
-Rep. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz-FL

REP. BRAD MILLER (NC)

Endorsements:
-Sen. Bernie Sanders-VT
-Sen. Hansen Clarke-MI
-Sen. Maria Cantwell-WA
-Sen. Kay Hagan-NC
-Rep. Alan Grayson-FL
-Gov. Peter Shumlin-VT
-Ex-Rep. Dennis Kucinich-OH
-Rep. Lloyd Doggett-TX
-Rep. Bruce Braley-IA
-Rep. Dave Loebsack-IA
-Rep. Bill Halter-AR
-Rep. Ann McLane Kuster-NH
-Rep. Peter Welch-VT
-Prof. Elizabeth Warren-MA
-Markos Moulitsas (DailyKos)

GOV. DEVAL PATRICK (MA)

Endorsements:
-Sen. John Kerry-MA
-Sen. Vicki Kennedy-MA
-Sen. Barbara Mikulski-MD
-Sen. Ben Cardin-MD
-Gov. Jerry Brown
-Ex-Gov. John Lynch-NH
-Gov. Lincoln Chafee-RI
-Ex-Gov. Dan Malloy-CT
-Ex-Gov. Jenny Granholm-MI
-Gov. Anthony Brown-MD
-Gov. Beau Biden-DE
-Rep. Jim Clyburn-SC
-Rep. John Lewis-GA

SEN. MARK UDALL (CO)

Endorsements:
-Sen. Tom Harkin-IA
-Sen. Michael Bennet-CO
-Gov. John Hickenlooper-CO
-Ex-Sen. Bob Kerrey-NE
-Sen. John Tester-MT
-Ex-Sen. Max Baucus-MT
-Ex-Gov. Tom Vilsack-IA
-Sen. Kent Conrad-ND
-Ex-Sen. Jeff Bingaman-NM
-Rep. Gabby Giffords-AZ

SEN. MARK WARNER (VA)

Endorsements:
-Sen. Tim Kaine-VA
-Gov. Tom Perriello-VA
-Gov. Dustin McDaniel-AR
-Gov. Steve Beshear-KY
-Ex-Gov. Ted Strickland-OH
-Ex-Gov. Jim Hunt-NC
-Gov. Gene Taylor-MS
-Sen. Mary Landrieu-LA
-Ex-Sen. Bill Nelson-FL
-VA Democratic House delegation
-WV Congressional delegation
-Rep. Mark Critz-PA
-Rep. Steny Hoyer-MD

SEN. RON WYDEN (OR)

-Gov. Jeff Merkley-OR
-OR Democratic House delegation
-Gov. Chris Gregoire-WA
-Sen. Barbara Boxer-CA
-Ex-Sen. Dianne Feinstein-CA
-Sen. Kamala Harris-CA
-Sen. Claire McCaskill-MO
-Sen. Ben Ray Lujan-NM
-Sen. Russ Feingold-WI
-Sen. Tim Johnson-SD
-Sen. Debbie Stabenow-MI
-Sen. Carl Levin-MI
-Rep. Shelley Berkley-NV


Polls:

IA (PPP)
Udall- 21%
Warner- 19%
Cuomo-15%
Miller-15%
Wyden-12%
Patrick- 8%

IA (Rasmussen)
Warner- 22%
Udall- 18%
Cuomo-17%
Miller-14%
Wyden-11%
Patrick- 9%

NH (Mason-Dixon)
Cuomo- 24%
Patrick- 20%
Miller- 17%
Wyden- 13%
Warner- 12%
Udall- 9%

Polls Map


PPP Kitchen-Sink General Election Pollapalooza



Candidate Favorables


« Last Edit: June 05, 2012, 03:54:49 pm by MilesC56 »Logged


RodPresident
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« Reply #181 on: June 05, 2012, 05:16:23 pm »
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Miles, you made not so good, not so bad update. Miller isn't so representative of progressive movement. A NC bias is bad. A more exciting candidate for progressives would be Tammy Baldwin or maybe Denise Juneau. He'll only derail Warner's train in South. Cuomo's situation is bad, very bad. If he fails to win IA or NH, he'll have to drop-out. Patrick should focus in NH and SC. Wyden isn't a presidential material. I'd put my money in nomination going for Patrick or Udall.
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Fidelix 28
Miles
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« Reply #182 on: June 05, 2012, 05:26:33 pm »
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Primary Dates & delegates.

For simplicity's sake, the Republicans will be strictly winner-take-all and the Democrats will be proportional (with a 15% threshold).



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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #183 on: June 05, 2012, 08:13:29 pm »
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Go Warner and Rubio!
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Drink Too Much:
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=147022.0

An Empire of Stars and Stripes:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=156974.0

Quote
FOOL!  I AM Cathcon!

Endorsements:
President: Hillary Clinton
Governor: Brown (CA), Corbett (PA), Scott (FL)
House: Emken (CA)
Other: Rob McCoy (CA Assembly)

---------------------------------------

Libertarian Internationalist Monarchist
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« Reply #184 on: June 06, 2012, 11:40:23 am »
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Wyden/Baldwin 2016!
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« Reply #185 on: June 06, 2012, 12:52:01 pm »
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go Warner and Huntsman
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Great ambition is the passion of a great character. Those endowed with it may perform very good or very bad acts. All depends on the principles which direct them.-Napoleon Bonaparte


Miles
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« Reply #186 on: June 12, 2012, 12:11:35 am »
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Update by tomorrow night.
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« Reply #187 on: June 12, 2012, 04:38:13 am »
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Update by tomorrow night.

Great!
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Political Matrix

E: -7,74
S: -5,22
Camerlengo Alfred, Archbishop of Rochester
Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #188 on: June 12, 2012, 05:54:56 am »
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This is one of the few timelines I'm actually following closely.
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There is a lot of humor to be mined from this as the mind of LBJ in the body of an 18 month old baby girl is quite hilarious.

Alfred is the Atlasian equivalent of a malevolent deity.

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« Reply #189 on: June 12, 2012, 06:15:44 am »
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I'd like Miller or Udall to win this.
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
Miles
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« Reply #190 on: June 12, 2012, 06:29:57 pm »
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VITTER WINS LA GOVERNOR RACE

AP- In the runoff election last night to replace the term-limited Governor Bobby Jindal, the Republicans continued their streak of Gubernatorial  victories in the Pelican State. The Republican, Senator David Vitter, defeated Democrat James Carville by about 6 points. All recent polling showed Vitter ahead, but usually had Carville trailing by single-digits, giving Democrats hope for an upset. Also, former President Bill Clinton, for whom Carville served as a top campaign adviser in the 1990s, made several campaign stops for the Democratic candidate. Still, President Obama's approval in the state is hoovering just slightly above 35%, which gave Republicans a boost. Former Governor Buddy Roemer (R), who also ran in the open primary, but failed to make the runoff, did not make an endorsement.

"Carville ran a good campaign" said New Orleans mayor Mitch Landrieu. "For the past two cycles, Democrats haven't strongly contested the Louisiana Governorship. The Carville campaign certainly worked hard to get out the vote her in New Orleans. I think he made a strong showing at the polls overall, but it just wasn't our night. Look, James ran almost 15 ahead of the President in 2012; I think that shows Democrats can still compete here."

Republican strategists pointed out that while Carville was able to make the contest competitive, Vitter won 5 of the state's 6 Congressional districts. Outside of the majority-minority 2nd, Carville did not carry a single Congressional district, though he did come close in the Shreveport-based 4th.

Moving forward, Vitter has announced that, upon resigning from the Senate, he will appoint Congressman Steve Scalise (R) to fill the vacancy. If he stands for election, which is likely, Scalise will have to defend the Class III seat next November.

This runoff ended an election season that was otherwise favorable towards Democrats; they held the Governor's seat in Kentucky and in Mississippi, incumbent Gene Taylor was reelected in a landslide.



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GPORTER
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« Reply #191 on: June 12, 2012, 09:32:12 pm »
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I'm pleased with the Louisiana result. Hope for another Kentucky governor, did not realize until a few yrs ago that Fletcher was the first republican governor of that state "in a generation."
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Miles
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« Reply #192 on: June 16, 2012, 11:54:59 am »
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Senate update tonight w/ Iowa poll.
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Vote UKIP!
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« Reply #193 on: June 16, 2012, 04:48:57 pm »
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No governor Carville?

Drat.
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Miles
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« Reply #194 on: June 17, 2012, 12:28:01 am »
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2016 SENATE SUPER-UPDATE




538.com- With slightly less than a year until election day 2016, control of the next Senate looks like very much a tossup. With this first look at the Senate races, we have found 5 tossup races as well as several other states that only lean slightly towards one of the parties; these are the states that will likely swing the Senate.

TOSSUPS:

AZ: OPEN- MCCAIN (R)

Longtime Senator and 2008 Presidential nominee John McCain is retiring from the Senate after 30 years. Through most of his tenure, McCain was very popular in his home state, though his image began to erode after he lost to President Obama; this was seen with his less-than-inspiring 59% last cycle. Democrats have recruited Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords; Giffords has held a slightly GOP-leaning district in southeastern Arizona for nearly 10 years. Other than a close call in 2010, Giffords has won her district comfortably since. The GOP has yet to line up behind a candidate. Congressman Ben Quayle is running as a mainstream Republican while former Congressman J.D Hayworth, who tried to primary McCain last time around, is running as a tea-flavored alternative. While Giffords is no doubt a top-line candidate, AZ has a pervading GOP tilt.

IL: KIRK (R)

Then-Congressman Mark Kirk seemed to be in right place at the right time in 2010. A moderate Republican, he drew a very weak Democratic opponent in solidly blue Illinois. While both candidates had faults, Kirk was able to cling to a win. In 2016, he may not be as lucky. Several established Democrats have considered running against him. Most notably, First Lady Michelle Obama has been mentioned. If she decides not to run, Congresswoman Tammy Duckworth has also been mulling a statewide run. Both Obama and Duckworth hold leads over Kirk in the polls. However, until this race begins to take form, we'll call it a tossup.

IA: OPEN- GRASSLEY (R)

Veteran statesman Chuck Grassley is stepping down after nearly 4 decades. On the Republican side, the party seems united around Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds. For the Democrats, former Governor Chet Culver, who's father was defeated by Grassley in 1980, is seriously considering a bid. Some top Democrats are also trying to recruit former Governor and Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack, though the Secretary said he will "probably not" seek any office after his term with the Obama Administration concludes.

NC: BURR (R)

Despite serving two terms in the Senate, Richard Burr remains as anonymous as ever to many in North Carolina; based on the latest polls, nearly 35% of voters have no opinion of Burr. Ever since his retirement in 2012, Congressman Heath Shuler, has been rumored to make a statewide run. 2016 is looking like his most likely chance; he is competitive with Burr in the polls and has proven that he can win over normally Republican-leaning voters. Still, while Burr looked vulnerable in 2009, he wound up winning by 12 points in 2010.

WI: OPEN- THOMPSON (R)

After then-Senator Ron Johnson was elected Governor in 2014, he appointed former Governor Tommy Thompson to this seat. Thompson (74) announced that he would only hold the seat until the 2016 election. In the meantime, both sides seem to have interesting primaries. On the incumbent side, former State Party Chair Reince Priebus is facing off against Lieutenant Governor Rebecca Kleefisch. Both are considered younger rising stars in the party; Preibus, of course, has much of the state establishment backing him while Kleefisch is running a more grassroots campaign. There is a similar dichotomy on the Democratic side; Rep. Ron Kind is a seasoned Congressman from the western 3rd district while Mahlon Mitchell of Milwaukee, the President of the WI Firefighters union, is running to left. Mahlon and Kind are likewise considered to be rising leaders within the party.  Polls for this open seat are close, with no candidate breaking past the low-40s.

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Miles
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« Reply #195 on: June 17, 2012, 12:29:44 am »
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2016 SENATE SUPER-UPDATE CONT'D


SLIGHT DEMOCRATIC:

CO: BENNET (D)

Michael Bennet impressively held onto his seat in the Republican wave of 2010, where his party lost 2 Congressional districts in the state. While Bennet had the benefit of a very polarizing opponent, national Democrats looked to his strong 2010 campaign as an outline for Obama's 2012 efforts in the Centennial State. While he will have to run in more friendly atmosphere this time, neither of his two potential opponents make the electoral math particularly easy. Congressman Mike Coffman has been elected statewide before; even though his district was made considerably more Democratic in 2012, he has won it twice since. Congressman Cory Gardner was swept in in the 2010 wave and has made his statewide intentions known. Bennet leads either by about 5 points, and will benefit from a costly GOP primary, but this race will likely tighten going into the final stretch.

MO: BLUNT (R)

Since he handily beat SoS Robin Carnahan in 2010, Missourians never seemed to be very found of Blunt's tenure in the Senate. In fact, his approvals in the chamber rarely crossed 40%.  A casualty of redistricting, Russ Carnahan, the brother of the woman he beat in 2010, is challenging Blunt. The few polls taken so far show Blunt to be a slight underdog. Still, going into 2010, Robin Carnhan also posted similar leads. If outgoing Governor Jay Nixon, a popular figure in the state, were to jump in, he would be approaching 50% in the general election. Still, Nixon has said that Governor of Missouri is the "highest office" that he would seek in his life.


SLIGHT REPUBLICAN:

KY: PAUL (R)

Ever since they failed to defeat him in a rough year nationally, Kentucky state Democrats have been chopping at the bit to take on the controversial Rand Paul. The Democratic State Auditor, Adam Edelen, a protege of the popular Governor Crit Luallen, is widely seen as the front runner to take on Paul. While the Kentucky Democratic party is stronger than most of its counterparts in the south and Paul has posted less-than inspiring approval numbers, the incumbent Senator is still popular with national tea party groups and has impressive fundraising.

PA: TOOMEY (R)

After a clinging to a 51% win in 2010, Republican Pat Toomey finds himself one of the more vulnerable Republicans of this cycle. Last cycle he had the luxury of a relatively conservative off-year electorate; with national Democrats pushing hard in the Keystone State, the DSCC has put Toomey on its top targets list. Both his most likely opponents, Congressman Mark Critz and former Rep. Tim Holden come within 5 points of the incumbent.

LEAN DEMOCRATIC:

AR: LINCOLN (D)

Senator Blanche Lincoln was lucky to draw a weak opponent, State Senator Gilbert Baker, in 2010; even still she held on with only a plurality. Though Arkansas has a long history of sending populist and conservative-minded Democrats to the Senate, national factors, such as President Obama's race and presence in the White House, have energized the state GOP. For now, the Republican field could become crowded; Congressmen Rick Crawford and Tom Cotton, former Congressman Tim Crawford and SoS Mark Martin are all considered potential candidates. Lincoln leads that field by about 5 or 6 points. Another question looming is whether outgoing Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter will launch a primary challenge from the left. While such a move could energize progressive Democrats, it could ultimately complicate the party's chances of holding the seat.

CA: OPEN- BOXER (D)

Senator Barbara Boxer, who has often drawn the ire of conservatives and the unwavering support of many liberal and green environmental groups, announced that she would not be a candidate for reelection. The Democratic primary (and, no, the only state in this TL that has a jungle primary is Louisiana) is shaping up as a contest between two statewide officials. SoS Debra Bowen was term-limited in 2014 and remains popular. More recently, Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom has announced his plans to run. Newsom is a close ally of Senator Kamala Harris, but mush of Boxer's progressive and environmental support could very well go to Bowen. Rather than punting on this election, Republicans think they have a viable candidate in former Lieutenant Governor Abel Maldonaldo. A more liberal Republican, he has been campaigning for this seat since 2014 and has been focused on winning over voters who typically support Democrats.

LEAN REPUBLICAN:

FL: RUBIO (R)

Rubio, now running for the GOP Presidential nod, will still have a Senate seat on the ballot this November. While much of Team Rubio's energy is currently focused elsewhere, at home, the Republican benefits from a fluid Democratic bench.  The Democrat who performs the best in the general election is Tampa Congresswoman Cathy Castor, who is still considering entering the race. The DailyKos and the Progressive Change Campaign Committee are starting a movement to draft liberal firebrand Rep. Alan Grayson, of Orlando. Still, while he may prove to be a strong fundraiser, Grayson remains a highly polarizing figure, perhaps too much so to win in swingy Florida. Grayson will more likely stand for reelection in his 60% Obama House seat. Another option may be Rep. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz; like Grayson, she is a strong fundraiser, but lacks the controversy.

IN: OPEN-COATS (R)

After making a comeback, the 73 year-old Coats will call it quits after one term. The first Republican to launch a Senate campaign was Congressman Marlin Stutzman of the northeaster n 3rd district. Former Governor Mitch Daniels has expressed some interest in running saying that he's "open to all options" but most Republicans privately admit that he is holding out for a VP selection or a Cabinet appointment, should the GOP take the White House. Former Congressman Joe Donnelly is the only announced Democrat in the race. Despite Donnelly's centrist record, we favor the GOP here.

LA: SCALISE (R)

While he hasn't even assumed office yet Rep. Steve Scalise is already in campaign mode for a full term. When he takes over the LA Governorship in a few weeks, Senator David Vitter said that he will appoint Rep. Scalise, of the suburban New Orleans 1st district, to the Senate. While Louisiana was for most of its history a bastion for conservative Democrats, its electorate has grown increasingly hostile towards the national party. While only 46% of voters know enough to offer an opinion of their soon-to-be appointed Senator, we give the GOP a leg up here given that the Democratic Presidential ticket will likely fare poorly there. Two main Democratic names have been bounced around. Former Congressman Chris John, who represented the Cajun 7th district, is said to be mulling a run after 12 years out of elected office. A less likely candidate who could be more competitive is mayor Mitch Landrieu. Unlike Scalise or John, Landrieu has won statewide before.

NV: OPEN- REID (D)

After 30 years in the Senate and many hard-fought elections Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is retirng.  Sadly for Democrats, the very popular Republican Brian Sandoval seems to be in the driver's seat here. Sandoval leads both his potential opponents, Rep. Shelley Berkley and SoS Ross Miller by double-digits. On election day, there will be a few factors working in the Democrat's favor, such as help from the national party and local 'union effect', but for now, Sandoval is favored to flip this seat.

OK: OPEN-COBURN (R)

In 2004, Senator Tom Coburn took a two-term pledge and is sticking to his word. While the GOP Presidential ticket will likely dominate here, Democrats are hoping to compete in this race. Former Rep. Brad Carson, who held down the ancestrally Democratic CD2 before losing to Coburn in 2004, is running. Former Lieutenant Governor Jari Askins is also considering a bid. Still, both would start out behind Rep. Jim Lankford, an ally of Sen. Mary Fallin, who the GOP has seemed to coalesce around. The sheer redness of the state presents an uphill climb to any Democrat here. Former Governor Brad Henry, who won his final term with 67%, would only lead Lankford  by 4 points in a hypothetical match, though he has decided not to run. Still, its seems that the overarching concept here is that Oklahomans will elect Democrats to state posts, as evidenced by Governor Dan Boren's 2014 win, but are reluctant to send Democrats to federal offices.

OH: PORTMAN (R)

Portman, like his colleagues in NC and FL, won by a considerable margin in 2010, yet remains fairly anonymous to voters. The only announced Democrat here is Congresswoman Betty Sutton; Sutton has carried a 51% Romney district for the past 2 cycles, albeit by narrow margins. Still, she will need to raise her statewide name recognition if she wants to make this a race. For now, Portman's name recognition and funding edge justifies a Lean R rating.

STATE-BY-STATE POLLS
« Last Edit: June 17, 2012, 12:59:53 am by MilesC56 »Logged


Miles
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« Reply #196 on: June 17, 2012, 12:30:10 am »
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Iowa poll will be next update.
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Nagas
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« Reply #197 on: June 18, 2012, 05:26:15 am »
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Looks good, but I have an issue with this:

Quote
538.com- With slightly less than a year until election day 2016, control of the next Senate looks like very much a tossup. With this first look at the Senate races, we have found 5 tossup races as well as several other states that only lean slightly towards one of the parties; these are the states that will likely swing the Senate.

The GOP really maxed out here in 2010 and Democrats already hold a majority in the Senate. All of the toss ups on your map are GOP held seats and its a Presidential year. Seems like the Democrats would be favored, no? Tongue
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« Reply #198 on: June 18, 2012, 08:08:32 am »
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How come Inouye is running again, given he'll be 98 by the end of his term and Hawaii has a Republican governor?
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« Reply #199 on: June 18, 2012, 11:27:34 am »
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He's already declared he plans to run again.
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