2014: Midterms, Presidential Contests and beyond

[Miles]

Okay guys, seeing as my old TL was dying a slow death, I decided that I'd start over new for the 2014 midterms.

This is basically an extension of 2011 and Beyond....

Enjoy!

[Miles]

Why not keep it in one thread?

I just thought it was time for a change.

[Miles]

Rachel: Welcome yet again to election night here on MSNBC. I'm Rachel Maddow and joining me are my friends Chuck Todd and Chris Matthews here to analyze the results of Midterm Night 2014.  We hope you will stay with us here at at MSNBC as we try to make sense of these results. Now, lets check in with our electoral guru Chuck!

Chuck: Thank you Rachel. Thats right. The polls, debates and votes have all come down to this night. President Obama's approval is standing at about even, 49% approving with 48% disapproving according to Gallup, we will no doubt see some very competitive races tonight. In the Senate, Republicans are hoping to pick up the 4 seats they need to flip control of the chamber, whereas House Democrats are eyeing a comeback. We'll also have a slew of Governoers races to watch for.

Chris:And it looks like we have our first results now. From the Bluegrass state, this was for Mitch McConnell's seat. The Republican leader's seat will actually going to a Democrat. The very popular Secretary of State, Alison Lundergan Grimes will be defeating Agriculture Commissioner Ritchie Farmer. Kentucky has long been a Democratic state, but Republicans have lately had a solid hold on its Senate seats. Not tonight.

Chuck: And its also worth noting that Grimes will be Kentucky's first woman Senator. This puts Republicans one seat further in the hole. Now, they'll need a net gain of 5 seats.

Rachel: We do have good news for Republican though. Senator Susan Collins will be comfortably reelected. Despite the blue lean of Maine, Collins defeats former Governor John Baldacci. Collins is one of the few Republicans who have worked with the President on major policy initiatives; her independent legislative record keeps her popular at home.

Chris: And the Republicans have another with. Governor Paul LePage will be heading back to Augusta. For the second time, he benefits from a split field; his to major opponents were Rep. Chillie Pingree and Independent Eliot Culter. Despite his tea party endorsements, voters never saw LePage as extreme. Still, this was one of most competitive races in the country. Going into tonight, this three-way contest was anyone's guess. Still, the AP projects LePage will come out on top.

Chuck: In West Virginia, earlier this year, longtime Senator Jay Rockefeller announced his retirement. His seat will be filled by Carte Goodwin, who served as an interim Senator after the death of Bob Byrd. Goodwin won against conservative businessman Bill Maloney; Goodwin was an early favorite after receiving endorsements from West Virginia's all-Democratic Congressional delegation. Maloney tried to tie his opponent to the unpopular Obama, but it wasn't enough. Goodwin's open House seat was filled by Secretary of State Natalie Tennant.

[Miles]

Did LoBiondio, Bachus, Sessions, Roberts and Graham survive their primaries? And did anyone else (other than Durbin, Rockefeller, Levin, Merkley, McConnell, Alexander and Inhofe) retire?

I'll cover that stuff as I roll out results

I did announce some retirements at the end of my old TL.

[Miles]

Update today.

[Miles]

Chuck: Welcome back! We start off with an interesting and closely-watched race in South Carolina. I wouldn't really call this a thre--way rac; its more like a two-and-a half candidate race. Congressman Mick Mulvaney knocked off Senator Lindsey Graham in the GOP primary. Graham however, decided to run as a Write-In candidate. Here's a but of history for our viewers: exactly 60 years ago, Strom Thurmond won his write-in candidacy for this very same seat. The Democrat in this race was a man who no one seems to know much about, Mr. Alvin Greene. Greene was by no means a serious campaigner and his candidacy seemed to produce an an endless amount of gaffes. With about 10 counties left to report and only 47% of precincts in, Mulvaney is clinging to a lead of less than 2 points, with Greene a very distant third.

Rachel: And we do have a few other notable races in South Craolina. Governor Nikki Haley was easily reelected over Charleston councilman Vic Rawl. Vince Sheheen, who narrowly lost to Haley in 2010, won Mick Mulavaney's open House seat. Before Mulvaney, that seat had been in Democratic hands for over a century. This brings South Carolina's House delegation to 5 Republicans and 2 Democrats.

SC Congressional Map

[Miles]

Chris: And now we have a few more closely-watched races coming in. Tonight is a good night to have the last name "Brown." Both former Senators Sherrod Brown and Scott Brown have successfully made political comebacks.

In Ohio, Democratic Governor Ted Strickland was term-limited. Despite Brown's loss in 2012, Ohio Republicans have become increasingly unpopular. While Governor Strickland leaves office with an lukewarm 41/45 approval rating, Ohioans give the Republican Legislative Majority a dismal 32/51 rating. Those numbers translated into an uphill battle for Republican nominee Josh Mandel. While Mandel did well in the west, Brown but together a coalition of the urban north and Appalachian east to win.

Rachel: And in my state of Massachusetts, we will have a new Governor. Governor Duval Patrick forewent a 3rd term in favoring of becoming the new DNC Chairman. While Scott Brown was voted out of his Senate seat in 2012, polls showed that Bay State voters still viewed him favorably. Brown built a geographic coalition similar to that of his 2010 Senate upset. Lieutenant Governor Tim Murray will be losing this race by about 6 points.

Also, very popular Senator John Kerry went unopposed.

[Miles]

Chris: Now lets move down to the state of Tennessee; here we have good news for both parties. Last year Senator Lamar Alexander announced his retirement. Well, popular Governor Bill Haslam will be heading to Washington to take his place; he defeats Congressman Jim Cooper. Cooper ran a good campaign, but with an approval rating of 57/39, Haslam was a strong favorite and will be winning by 17 points tonight. Democrats won Tennessee's other seat in 2012 with Bart Gordon, so it was always unlikely voters in this red-trending state would send two Democrats to the Senate; Haslam keeps this seat in GOP hands.

Now for the open statehouse, former Governor Phil Bredesen ran again. He left office in 2010, but he missed his old job; the DSCC even tried to draft him for Senate, but he instead ran for the Governorship again. Even though he's 70 years old, Bredesen is the most popular politician in the state, he has a 60/25 favorable rating. He will be defeating Lieutenant Governor Ron Ramsey. Ramsey ran a poor campaign filled with gaffes and struggled to fund raise. Bredesen  wins by 30 points, limiting Ramsey to only a handful of eastern counties.
Bredesen was known as a Governor who could cross party lines to pass legislation. He'll need that ability as a takes office again; he'll be working with Republican supermajorities in both Assembly chambers. 

Rachel: And we also have news from New Jersey. This was one of the more competitive races. We can project that Republican Senator Frank LoBiondo will be keeping his seat for a full term. If you remember, LoBiondo had scare in the primary against tea party Congressman Jon Runyan. Despite some of his liberal positions, LoBiondo had the endorsement of Governor Chris Christie. Christie's endorsement helped negate Runyan's challenge as LoBiondo won the primary by a 57-41 margin.
In the general election, Democrats ran Newark Mayor Cory Booker. Tonight it looks like Booker just didn't the turnout he needed in the upper portions of the state. By contrast, LoBiondo won his old district with 63% of the vote, a district that Barack Obama won in 2012 with 52%.

[Miles]

Rachel: And now we have more southern states rolling in results. We start in the Carolinas. Senator Kay Hagan will be winning a second term as she defeats Speaker of the NC Assembly Thom Tillis. Hagan benefited from the campaign infrastructure from the 2012 DNC that was in North Carolina and she ran ahead of Tillis in fundraising. Hagan hammered Tillis on his work in the Assembly as he advocated bills that would restrict voting access and drastically cut education programs. In PPP's last poll confirmed the effectiveness of the Democrat's attacks; 42% voters viewed Tillis as "extreme" compared to only 31% for Hagan.

Chuck:We can also confirm that Senator Lindsey Graham will be coming out ahead in that three-way race in South Carolina; Graham dominated in the his old House district and cobbled together pluralities in the Columbia and Charleston areas to win. This was truly a great effort on the part of the Graham people. They studied Lisa Murkowski's successful write-in campaign 4 years earlier. Graham had the added benefit of a weak opponent. Greene ran for the Democratic nomination in 2010 but was defeated by Vic Rawl. This time around, Greene got the nomination and ran possibly the most comical campaign in the county. In any case, Greene was an awful candidate; only 22% of voters had a favorable opinion of him and he only won a handful of heavily black counties.

Here are some interesting stats. Even though Mulvaney beat Graham 65/31 with registered  Republicans and lost Independents by only 50/45, Graham's advantage with Democrats allowed him to win. Graham beat Greene 55-39 with that Democrats as part of a coalition of moderate Republicans and Independents.
Well, with Senator Jim DeMint retiring in 2016, Mulvaney may have a better opportunity to run again.

Chris: Speaking of three-way races, lets to go Louisiana. If a Landrieu can't win in here, then no Democrat can. This looks it will be headed to a runoff; remember, Louisiana re-implemented its old jungle primary system. While Landrieu is ahead, she failed to secure the 50% needed to preclude another round of voting.

Chuck: Thats right. Landrieu's two strong opponents were both Republicans. Lieutenant Governor Jay Dardenne finishes second with 30% and Plaquemines Parish President Billy Nungusser finishes third with 26%. Mr. Nungesser and Dardenne are bitter enemies, as they both ran for Lieutentant Governor in 2011. Neither Senator Vitter nor Governor Jindal made primary endorsements.

What may help Landrieu is that, while Nungesser has conceded, he has implied that he will not  endorse Dardenne in the runoff. So, assuming Landrieu holds her 43.5%, she'll only need to pick up 25% of Nungesser voters in the runoff.
In our exit polls, we asked Nungesser voters who their second choice would be; 48% picked Dardenne and 38% picked Landrieu with 14% unsure. Surely good news for Senator Landrieu.

Rachel: In Mississippi, Senator Thad Cochran had only third-party opponents. Despite talk of a tea party challenge from Congressman Steve Palazzo, Cochran faced little opposition in the primary and general. Cochran is perhaps the biggest pork farmer in the Senate; following in the tradition of Senators from Mississippi. He takes 87% with third parties taking a combined 13%.

Finally, in Alabama, we have two Republican wins despite top Democrat recruitment. For the Senate, Jeff Sessions, best known for his role on the Judiciary Committee, turns back former Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks. Then, in the slightly closer race for Governor, Robert Bentley keeps his seat against former Lieutenant Governor Jim Folsom. Even with candidates like Sparks and Folsom, Democrats can't seem to break the GOP dominance in Alabama.

Chuck: Now lets have a look at our compiled Senate map. Democrats have held West Virginia, North Carolina and Massachusetts and flipped Kentucky. Republicans have Maine, New Jersey, Tennessee, Mississippi and Alabama; Graham from South Carolina will continue to caucus with the GOP as well. Louisiana will, of course, not be decided tonight. Already at a net loss of 1, the GOP needs to flip at least 5 more seats.

[Miles]

I have a big update later today.

I have Senate/Gov races for about 8 states.

[Miles]

Rachel: Now we have a slew of races to report on. Lets start with a state thats always fun to watch: Florida. The current Governor, Rick Scott, was so unpopular that he lost his party's nomination this week. George P. Bush, son of former Governor Jeb Bush, ran against Scott and won 50-42 in the primary. Bush also ran in 2012 but lost a close race for his party's Senate nomination. Bush went on to face Congressman Ron Klein in the general election and will be winning with about 51%. For more lets go to our numbers man, Chuck Todd.

Chuck: Well, there were some interesting statistics here. First, Governor Rick Scott will be leaving office with a 32% approval rating. Another unpopular figure here is President George Bush; 38% have a favorable opinion of him while 51% don't. You may think that would have been a drag on the Republicans in this race. But, Jeb Bush remains a very popular; his favorables are at a strong 53/39 spread. So, Jeb Bush's popularity was a big asset to his son in the election.

Chris: Well, we have numbers in from the home state of George W. Bush. In Connecticut, Governor Dan Malloy loses a rematch to Tom Foley. Despite being a Democratic Governor in a blue state, Malloy was never popular.

This next state is very dear top me: Pennsylvania. Here, we also have another incumbent losing. Governor Tom Corbett  was best known for his controversial plan to split up Pennsylvania's electoral votes by Congressional district; this never did pass, but things like that caused voters to see him as too partisan. His opponent, Congressman Jason Altmire, a conservative Democrat, won with an unusually strong showing in the western part of the state. Altmire's win breaks the 2-term trend that most Pennsylvania Governor's get.

Chuck: In New York, we have a another landslide win for popular Governor Andrew Cuomo. His opponent was Doug Hoffman, a tea party Republican who was endorsed by Sarah Palin. Obviously, Palin's endorsement doesn't play very well in New York state politics. Cuomo wins with two-thirds of the vote.

Rachel: And we have a similar case in Maryland. Lieutenant Governor Anthony Brown is elected, succeeding term-limited Martin O'Malley. Brown defeats a buddy of mine, former RNC Chair Michael Steele. In any case, Brown is widely viewed as a rising star in national Democratic politics.  

Chris: In Georgia, it looks like we have a good night for Republicans. Governor Nathan Deal will be wining a second term. Democrats had perhaps their strongest recruit possible here; Congressman John Barrow. While Barrow made this into a race, Deal's overwhelming strength in northern Georgia allows him a victory.
The Senate race wasn't as close. Senator Saxby Chambliss lost the primary to conservative advocate Herman Cain. Cain ran a great campaign and his fundraising was top-notch. Cain defeats 2008 Senate candidate Jim Martin.

Chuck: Now moving a few states over to Arkansas. Senator Mark Pryor, who's father was the very popular Senator David Pryor, is reelected to another term over Republican Secretary of State Mark Martin. In 2008, Pryor went unopposed, but this time, he'll be winning with a margin similar to that of his first Senate campaign.
When Vice President Mike Beebe resigned from office, he was replaced with Lieutenant Governor Mark Darr. Beebe left office with a 66% approval rating; Darr, by contrast, struggled to get his initiatives through the Democratic since then, as his approval stands at a poor 40/48 spread. To regain the Governorship, Democrats nominated Attorney General Dustin McDaniel. McDaniel easily defeats Darr.

So looking at our big map, we have Republicans flipping two seats while Democrats have picked up 3.

[Miles]

Poor GA dems... and did Dustin McDaniel win every district in Arkansas, or not?

Pryor and McDaniel both won the 3 Dixiecrat districts (1,2 and 4). McDaniel is from Fayetteville, but I don't think even he could carry the 3rd.

[Miles]

No update today (traveling all day). Probably lots of new stuff over the weekend.

[Miles]

Chris: And we're back with more results! Lets start in Delaware. Well, Senator Chris Coons goes unopposed because there are no Republicans left in Delaware to oppose him! Former Congressman Mike Castle is too old, 75, and his former opponent, Christine O'Donnell has happily accepted a job as a reporter for Fox News. If there is a Republican party in Delaware, it certainly isn't visible to the naked eye.

Rachel: Moving just a state or two over, Virginia Senator Mark Warner handily defeats AG Ken Cuccinelli. Warner is one of the most popular figures in Virginia politics. Former Governor Bob McDonnell decided against running for Senate; most speculate that he'll be gearing up to run for President in 2016 instead.

Chuck: As we look out west, we have some unusually competitive races for otherwise safe seats. When Oklahoma Senator Jim Inhofe annouced his retirement, Governor Mary Fallin jumped into the race to fill his seat. She was a heavy favorite and defeats Former AG Drew Edmondson.
Well, the race to watch here was for Governor. Congressman Dan Boren gave up his House seat to run for Governor against Lieutenant Governor Todd Lamb. Boren had help from his father, University of Oklahoma President David Boren, as well as former Governor Brad Henry, both are extremely popular. Boren will be pulling out a narrow win here as he performed very well in the rural eastern and southern parts of the state. Boren was helped in large part by a 68/30 advantage in his district.

Chris: Texas politics in something else. Tonight is the first election since Ann Richards in 1990 that a Democrat is elected Texas Governor. Congressman Max Sandlin will be defeating tea party Republican Debra Medina. Sandlin defeated Ann Richards' daughter, Cecile, in the primary. A lot of moderate Democrats worried that Cecile Richards, the President of Planned Parenthood would be too liberal to win the general election; they thought that Sandlin would do a better job of reaching out to ordinarily Republican-leaning voters.
Medina surprised the establishment when she upset Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst in the primary. Still, in the general, she had one too many gaffes. Sandlin also had the NRA's endorsement, which helped to neutralize Medina's support with rural voters.

Chuck: Well, Max Sandlin had an unusual level of crossover support. Here's an example: Look at Bowie County (Texarkana). This was Sandlin's homebase. This county only gave President Obama 30%; tonight, it gave Sandlin 56%. So, Democrats had a candidate that could really go toe-to-toe with the Republican in rural, conservative areas of the state.
Now, Governor Rick Perry is leaving office with a poor 40/49 approval rating, that really played in favor of the Democrats.
Finally, the Senate was much less competitive. Attorney Ted Cruz defeated Senator John Cornyn in the primary. Cruz portrayed the Senator as a Beltway insider who lost touch with conservative wing of the GOP. Tea party PACs poured millions into Texas for Cruz; and he squeaked out a 250-vote win over Cornyn in the primary runoff. In the general, Cruz defeats former Congressman Ciro Rodriguez.

Rachel: We also just received word from Kansas. If you remember, we had another tea party primary win here as well. Congressman Tim Huelskamp ousted Senator Pat Roberts by following the model of Ted Cruz in Texas. The general election was competitive as well. Former Governor Mark Parkinson ran for the Democrats; Parkison served as interim Governor after Kathleen Sebelius joined the Obama Cabinet. Parkinson loses by 7 points, coming pretty close by Kanas standards. Still, I he's only 56, so we could see him run again in the future.
The Kansas Democratic party focused almost all its resources on the Senatorial race and never filled to oppose Governor Sam Brownback; he wins with 80% of the vote against third parties.

[Miles]

I like Mark Parkinson a lot

'Ya can't win them all!

I actually thought I was being a little too generous to the D's in this update.

[Miles]

I'll shoot for an update by tonight.

[Miles]

Chris: We have three more states that just reported. First in Rhode Island, both incumbents are reelected. Despite a very strong recruit in former Governor John Carcieri, the GOP couldn't topple Senator Jack Reed. Reed had been reelected twice with over 70% of the vote, so this was always a very steep climb for Republicans.
Then, Governor Lincoln Davis was reelected over former Congressman David Cicilline while 10% of the vote went to third parties. Chafee was lucky that the RGA didn't recruit a candidate here; it spent its resources defending other seats like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

Rachel: In New Hampshire, Senator Jeanne Shaheen keeps her seats against former Congressman Charlie Bass. She wins by roughly the same margin as she did in 2008. The race to watch here was for Governor. Popular Governor John Lynch stepped aside after a 6th 2-year term. Lynch left office with a 61% approval rating. Still, despite that, Democrat Paul Hodes will be falling just short to Republican Ovide Lamontagne. This is significant because New Hampshire is the GOP's third pickup, after Scott Brown in Massachusetts and Tom Foley in Connecticut.

Chuck: And we have the status quo in the President's home state. Illinois voters have elected Lieutenant Governor Sheila Simon to the Senate seat being vacated by Dick Durbin. Simon ran against former Congressman Joe Walsh; despite his strong support from conservatives, Walsh was dogged by some questions about his personal life throughout the campaign. For Governor, AG Lisa Madigan wins against former Congressman Bobby Schilling. Governor Pat Quinn decided against running for a second full term and endorsed Madigan.

[Miles]

Great. But I don't see Lincoln Davs running in Rhode Island haha:

Lincoln Chafee....Lincoln Davis didn't carpetbag up to Rhode Island!

i don't see why Schilling would do so badly. He isn't too hard right to turn off the suburban voters and is populist enough to win a lot of the "Reagan Democrat" voters. The only areas he would probably be crushed in would be the minority areas and most of the jewish liberal areas in the north shore.

As you can tell, Illinois political geography isn't my area of expertise!

[Miles]

Miles, can you show me how to make those county maps? I still can't figure out how to do those!

I pretty much just go into Paint and then put the images on a transparent background. I know the color values for the percentages.

PM me if you'd like me to show you.

[Miles]

On deck for next update: MI, WI, MN and NM.

[Miles]

Chris: And now we're back after a long commercial break! We'll go to Wisconsin first. Earlier in the campaign, Governor Scott Walker lost the primary to Senator Ron Johnson. Most Republicans in the establishment feared that Walker, despite his legislative accomplishments would lose; he has a 36% approval rating. So, they drafted Senator Johnson to run for Governor, who would be a fresher face. Johnson has a better 45/37 approval rating and was seen as more electable. Walker lost the primary 51-42. It looks like Johnson will be winning the general election as well, as he was able to pour millions of his own dollars into this race. Walker's 2010 opponent Tom Barrett was able to come closer this time, but Johnson keeps this for the GOP.

Chuck: And its worth noting that in hypothetical polling, Barrett would have beaten Walker 47-40. Of course, Ron Johnson will be appointing an interim Senator to his seat once he takes office as Governor.

In Minnesota, we have Senator Betty McCollum clinging to a two-point lead over Governor Tim Pawlenty. Pawlenty isn't as popular as he once was, as he posts average favorable numbers; he tried to portray McCollum as too liberal for Minnesota, but remember, this was the state that gave us the late Paul Wellstone and Al Franken, two strong progressives in the Senate. The AP does not want to call this race yet. The current Governor, Mark Dayton will be reelected over former Congressman Chip Cravaack. Dayton made a good first impression on voters back in his first two years when he battled the Republican legislator; those Republicans have since lost their majority. Still, Dayton's approvals have usually been at or above 50%, which usually translates into reelection.

Chris: In Michigan, Senator Carl Levin's seat stays with the Democrats. Congressman Hansen Clarke moves up the Senate by defeating tea party Republican Justin Amash. Amash narrowly defeated Lieutenant Governor Brian Calley in the primary; at the last minute, Amash had a campaign event with Congressman Michele Bachmann, which helped to energize conservatives in his favor going into the primary.  Despite representing metro Detroit, Clarke was a great campaigner who was able to compete statewide and used Amash's endorsement from Bachmann against him. Clarke becomes the first Bangladeshi-American to serve in the Senate.
Our good friend Michael Moore was the Democratic nominee for Governor, but he'll be coming up short against Governor Rick Snyder.

Chuck: Thats right. Even though Snyder was never a particularly popular Governor, Moore was seen a bit too polarizing. Snyder, posting 41/48 job approvals, will still be winning by about 7%. Note that almost 5% of the vote went to third parties, which reflects the large percentage of voters who didn't like Snyder, but weren't willing to vote for Moore either.


Rachel: We have somewhat of an upset in New Mexico. Former Governor Gary Johnson has ousted Senator Tom Udall. Johnson said that he would go to Washington and battle both parties, which strongly resonated with Independent voters; he also had a good amount of crossover support, getting about 20% of Democrats. This was a major upset, as the last poll  had Udall up 49-44.
Governor Martinez was reelected quite comfortably over former Congressman Harry Teague. She is seen as a rising star within the party and some are trying to draft her for President in 2016.

And now lets check in with Chuck for overall maps. How are the Republicans doing?

Chuck: Well Rachel, the Republicans have had some impressive results, like holding Frank LoBiondo in New Jersey and pulling off that upset in New Mexico, but, as far as the Senate, the GOP needs to net at least 4 seats for outright control.
Looking at what we have, they could accomplish that a few ways, but this is the most likely scenario: They'd have to knock of Mary Landrieu the runoff and Pawlenty would have to pull ahead of McCollum in Minnesota. Then, Republicans have to take at least two more between Montana, Colorado, Oregon or Alaska. Basically, the GOP would need top take at least 4 of those 6 races.

As for the Governors, we have a Democrats netting two seats. Republicans picked up a trio of New England statehouses while Democrats flipped five states. As we get more results back, even larger gains are possible for both parties.

[Miles]

I'm only saddened that my beloved Rachel isn't on this update.

Rachel did the New Mexico segment!

But yeah, Chris and Chuck kinda dominated this update!

[Miles]

Rachel: Lets go to Montana, where we have one of the closest-watched Senate races in the county. Democrat Denise Junaeu, the state education superintendent, ousted Senator Max Baucus in the Democratic primary. Despite a 40% approval rating, the entrenched Baucus ran again. Juneau didn't necessarily run to Baucus' right, but she frmaed herself as a more populist alternative; she won the primary with 54% to 44% for Baucus.
Tonight, as the polls suggested Juneau is a tight race with Republican Steve Daines, who also ran against Senator Jon Tester in 2012. This seat has been in Democratic hands for 101 years, since 1913; well see if Democrats can continue that streak despite the Republican lean of Montana. Juneau has very strong support among native Americans, but Daines has tried to tie her to Obama, despite her outsider status.

Chuck: Denise Juneau could be one of the next rising stars in the Democratic party if she wins tonight. She'd be the first Native American Senator since Nighthorse Campbell in Colorado. Speaking of Colorado, we have our results in from the Centennial State. Governor John Hickenlooper is very popular and will be reelected in a landslide. Republicans ran tea party candidate Marilyn Musgrave, who served in Congress for three terms. Musgrave was known for her conservative firebrand style and was swept out in the 2008 wave. Governor Hickenlooper approvals were always above 50% and some Republicans insiders privately acknowledge that their party punted on this race  and conceded the nomination to the unelectable Musgrave.

But, the race for Senate here was a bit closer. Senator Mark Udall faced a well-funded challenge but will not end up like his cousin in New Mexico. Congressman Scott Tipton vacated his House seat to challenge Udall; he was mostly a self-funder.

Chris: Now returns are in from Iowa. In the Senate race, Senator Tom Harkin, probably one of the last few real populists left in the Senate, crushes Republican Bob Vander Plaats. Vander Plaats was considered the "Michele Bachmann" of Iowa. Still, his appeal was pretty limited to the conservative western portion of the state. We had two fimiliar faces in the Governor's race. Former Iowa First Lady Christie Vilsack ran against Governor Terry Branstad. Branstad will be winning a 6th term, but he acknowledged that Vilsack was one of his toughest opponents.

[Miles]

I'm aiming for an update tomorrow evening.


Thanks for the comments!

[Miles]

You promissed it...

It's coming!

Its still Friday