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Author Topic: Tender Branson's Iowa Prediction Thread  (Read 4055 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: December 27, 2011, 04:00:13 am »
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Projected Turnout: 111.000

1 - MITT ROMNEY (24%)

2 - Ron Paul (18%)
3 - Rick Santorum (15%)
4 - Newt Gingrich (14%)
5 - Michele Bachmann (13%)
6 - Rick Perry (11%)
7 - Jon Huntsman (4%)
8 - Others (less than 1%)

This could change in the next week, depending on the polls ... Wink
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: December 27, 2011, 04:05:38 am »
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On the Democratic side (they don't release turnout numbers AFAIK):

1 - BARACK OBAMA (96%)
2 - Others (4%)
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #2 on: December 27, 2011, 04:14:31 am »
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I'll hold off on mine for now. That'd be a heartbreaking result though.
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As expected the wop won.

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« Reply #3 on: December 27, 2011, 04:27:40 am »
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Michele Bachmann will pull off a upset after all she won the "corn" poll:p
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« Reply #4 on: December 27, 2011, 05:25:23 am »
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Paul 19%
Gingrich 17%
Romney 15%
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #5 on: December 27, 2011, 10:26:28 am »
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This is difficult... I still think Gingrich will win this at the end... However, I'm probably wrong.

Gingrich 25%
Paul 20%
Romney 17%
Santorum 15%
Perry 12%
Bachmann 8%
Huntsman 2%
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E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
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« Reply #6 on: December 27, 2011, 11:32:29 am »
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Ill hold off for now. The Iowa caucus requires good organization, which is why I think Mitt, Paul, or Santorum will win.
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Senator Polnut
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« Reply #7 on: December 27, 2011, 11:42:50 am »
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Holding off until the weekend
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« Reply #8 on: December 27, 2011, 12:43:43 pm »
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My ballparks:

Paul 28%
Romney 24%
Gingrich 16%
Santorum 12%
Bachmann 10%
Perry 10%
Huntsman MOE

Lots of fluidity in the bottom four and any one could make a charge if they become the consensus candidate, but I'm not seeing it thus far.  Santorum is the untainted hard-worker, Perry has the look / national name, and Bachmann has the favored daughter and was the first to go all-in for Iowa.  Gingrich is a persuasive talker but I think people have sufficiently caught on to his horsesh**.

I could see Paul cracking 30%, I could see Romney winning by as much as 5% (probably sub-30, though) - those are the only two I see winning.
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« Reply #9 on: December 27, 2011, 01:22:08 pm »
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Gingrich won't win. Romney has a good shot, though Santorum could be the surprise candidate, as could Perry.

Prediction: (12/27/11) Top Three

Romney: 24%
Paul:       19%
Gingrich:  16%
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AverroŽs Nix
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« Reply #10 on: December 27, 2011, 05:36:04 pm »
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I'll do another prediction later this week, but for now, here's my fair-weather prediction:

Paul - 20-25%
Romney - 20-30%
Perry - 10-15%
Gingrich - 10-15%
Santorum - 5-15%
Bachmann - 5-10%
Huntsman - 0-3%


Update (Post PPP poll):

Paul - 25%
Romney - 22%
Santorum - 16%
Perry - 16%
Bachmann - 10%
Gingrich - 8%
Huntsman - 2%

Still fluid; Paul and Romney are the most likely victors, and I expect both to finish no worse than third, but Santorum and Perry both have an outside chance.
« Last Edit: December 28, 2011, 07:14:15 am by AverroŽs Nix »Logged

Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #11 on: December 27, 2011, 06:35:34 pm »
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I'm game

Paul 24 - 26%
Romney 23 - 25%
Bachmann 10 - 12%
Gingrich 10 - 12%
Perry 8 - 10%
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FallenMorgan
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« Reply #12 on: December 27, 2011, 06:59:40 pm »
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Ron Paul -- 99%
Others -- 1%
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« Reply #13 on: December 27, 2011, 10:14:02 pm »
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I reserve the right to change this:

Paul: 25%
Perry: 22%
Romney: 17%
Santorum: 16%
Gingrich: 10%
Bachmann: 8%
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It seems like Lief's posts sometimes have a sexual tint to them. I've definitely seen references to spanking more than once.
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« Reply #14 on: December 27, 2011, 10:17:22 pm »
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Paul 28
Romney 25
Gingrich 16
Perry 12
Santorum 7
Bachmann 6
Huntsman 3


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« Reply #15 on: December 28, 2011, 06:21:08 pm »
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1) Mitt Romney
2) Rick Santorum
3) Ron Paul
4) Michele Bachmann
5) Rick Perry
6) Newt Gingrich
7) Jon Huntsman
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Lief
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« Reply #16 on: December 28, 2011, 06:26:45 pm »
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I reserve the right to change this:

Paul: 25%
Perry: 22%
Romney: 17%
Santorum: 16%
Gingrich: 10%
Bachmann: 8%

Switch around Perry and Santorum:

Paul: 25%
Santorum: 22%
Romney: 17%
Perry: 16%
Gingrich: 10%
Bachmann: 8%
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It seems like Lief's posts sometimes have a sexual tint to them. I've definitely seen references to spanking more than once.
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« Reply #17 on: December 28, 2011, 06:28:08 pm »
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Thing about Iowa is that voters are going to be bumping elbows asking who everyone is supporting before casting the ballot.  Few will be true fans of Mitt and Newt.

1. Paul
2. Santorum
3. Bachmann
4. Romney
5. Gingrich
6. Perry
7. Huntsman
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #18 on: December 28, 2011, 06:43:49 pm »
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Will edit if needed...

Paul - 23%
Romney - 20%
Santorum - 16%
Gingrich - 13%
Bachmann - 12%
Perry - 11%
Huntsman - 4%
Other - 1%
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Ray Goldfield
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« Reply #19 on: December 28, 2011, 08:34:54 pm »
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Paul - 24%
Santorum - 20%
Romney - 17%
Gingrich - 14%
Bachmann - 13%
Perry - 8%
Huntsman - 3%
Other - 1%
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« Reply #20 on: December 28, 2011, 10:39:24 pm »
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1. Paul
2. Romney
3. Santorum
4. Perry
5. Gingrich
6. Bachmann
7. Huntsman
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #21 on: December 29, 2011, 12:12:22 am »
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I really have had a lot to say on the primary (and Iowa), but have been so busy IRL, I haven't had a shot.  I will get around to it this weekend.

I will make a prediction on Iowa, but only after I see the last Selzer poll.  Consider this a placeholder.

EDIT (PREDICTION)

Romney 23%
Paul 23%
Santorum 20%
Gingrich 15%
Perry 11%
Bachmann 6%
Huntsman/Field 2%

I expect this to be completely wrong, of course...
« Last Edit: January 02, 2012, 02:53:48 pm by Sam Spade »Logged
A-Bob
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« Reply #22 on: December 29, 2011, 02:04:23 am »
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Honestly too early, one week left after a Christmas truce. A whole lot can happen. And unfortunately we can't get good polling on a caucus. And the Paul surrogates that are coming from non-republicans and drastically change the game.
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Volatilesaff
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« Reply #23 on: December 29, 2011, 05:38:06 am »
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Paul
Santorum
Romney
Perry
Gingrich
Bachmann
Huntsman

Probably will change.
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Warren '16!
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« Reply #24 on: December 29, 2011, 10:09:43 am »
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Lastest Change: Top Three

1. Paul: 24%
2. Romney: 20%
3. Santorum: 16%

I'm thinking this will be the most likely outcome.
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‎"Our president thinks this country's in decline. It is if he's president. It's not if I'm president." -- Mitt Romney

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