Tender Branson's Iowa Prediction Thread

[Former Moderate]

Santorum 30%
Paul 23%
Romney 23%
Gingrich 11%
Perry 8%
Bachmann 4%
Huntsman 1%

[RodPresident]

Turnout: 135,000
Paul: 23%
Santorum: 22%
Romney: 20%
Gingrich: 15%
Perry: 11%
Bachmann: 7%
Roemer: 1%
Huntsman: 1%
Bachmann will drop-out after this and maybe, Perry. Santorum (specially) and Paul will have momentum towards NH and SC. Romney's ceiling at NH will be 40%.

[xavier110]

It seems like the evangelicals are finally uniting. Santorum...is this real life? He can def win South Carolina. This may never end.

[Senator Ben]

Santorum: 23%
Paul: 21%
Romney: 19%
Gingrich: 15%
Perry: 10%
Bachmann: 7%
Huntsman: 4%
Roemer: 1%

[Keystone Phil]

Well done, my good and faithful servant.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Will edit if needed...

Paul - 23%
Romney - 20%
Santorum - 16%
Gingrich - 13%
Bachmann - 12%
Perry - 11%
Huntsman - 4%
Other - 1%

Ehh, what the hell...

Santorum - 25%
Romney - 22%
Paul - 18%
Perry - 12%
Gingrich - 11%
Bachmann - 7%
Huntsman - 4%
Other - 1%

[A-Bob]

Rick Santorum 22%
Ron Paul 21%
Mitt Romney 18%
Newt Gingrich 17%
Rick Perry 13%
Michele Bachmann 7%
Jon Huntsman 1%
Buddy Roemer 1%

[Lief]

Rick Santorum or Ron Paul are going to win. Mitt Romney is going to underpoll by about 5-6 points and will be closer to Perry/Gingrich than Santorum/Paul.

[NHI]

It's either doing to be a narrow Romney win in Iowa or a win by Paul/Santorum for first, with Romney a close second. Right now I'm leaning towards the former rather than the latter.

[Tender Branson]

Update:

1 - RICK SANTORUM (26%)

2 - Mitt Romney (24%)
3 - Ron Paul (19%)
4 - Rick Perry (11%)
5 - Newt Gingrich (10%)
6 - Michele Bachmann (7%)
7 - Jon Huntsman (2%)
8 - Others (less than 1%)

[Ѕenator Αverroës]

Re-posting my final prediction that I'd added as an edit to my previous comment:

Santorum - 26%
Paul - 23%
Romney - 22%
Perry - 13%
Gingrich - 8%
Bachmann - 6%
Huntsman - 1%

Changes are minor. DRM was mostly as expected, but I'm now expecting Santorum to pick up more support from Perry, Gingrich, and Bachmann supporters as well as undecideds. Hope I'm not falling for a Flavor.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

You people are such ''momentum'' whores.

I guess I'll give my final prediction now because I'm not gonna have much free time again until Tuesday itself:

Mitt Romney 23%
Ron Paul 22%
Rick Santorum 18%
Rick Perry 16%
Newt Gingrich 11%
Michele Bachmann 6%
Jon Huntsman 3%
Buddy Roemer 1%

I have complete faith in the Iowa GOP to lose some of Paul (and possibly Santorum's) votes if need be.

[Nagas]

I had a dream about the Iowa Caucus, and it turned out like this:

1. Rick Santorum
2. Ron Paul
3. Mitt Romney

and I'm sticking to it.

[The Vorlon]

Romney will likely win, in the sense that either 1st or 2nd place will exceed expectations and position him well going into his New Hampshire victory.

I ~~suspect~~ the Ron Paul is under polling, given that he has the most intense supporters.

Santorum might surprise - I don't think he will beat Romney, but I would not be shocked if he did....

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

My prediction did not account for this too much but it would be interesting if Gingrich collapsed even further thanks to his crying episode. Perhaps Perry could pick up some of his people and surprise us.

[Χahar]

I ~~suspect~~ the Ron Paul is under polling, given that he has the most intense supporters.

Care to elaborate? It seems to me that Paul should be overpolling, since so much of his support comes from non-Republicans.

[The Vorlon]

I ~~suspect~~ the Ron Paul is under polling, given that he has the most intense supporters.

Care to elaborate? It seems to me that Paul should be overpolling, since so much of his support comes from non-Republicans.

Firstly, let me say that anybody trying to poll a caucus state is very brave indeed.  These things are really hard to poll.

But just as a rough guide, in 2008 about 1.6 million Iowans voted in the presidential election, and GOP turnout in the IOWA caucuses was about 120,000.

So as a very approximate baseline, turnout in the GOP caucus was abut 7.5% of the total presidential voting population., and if we assume the GOP and Dems are fairly evenly divided in Iowa (they are) GOP turnout for the caucus would be +/- 15% or so. (this is a very crude estimate)

The closely watched Register poll was based upon a 25% turnout (about 602 out of a bit over 2500 in the sample) - and I think 25% is a bit high as a turnout projection.

Romney's support is a bit squishy, Paul's people are fanatical.

I think Paul does a bit better than the polls suggest, Romney a bit worse..

But hey, it's a caucus, there is lots of egg on people's faces the day after....

[kingthlayer]

If Romney doesn't come in first or second, he is going to look really bad considering he's made a late push for the state, and has been talking the talk for the past few weeks.

Losing to Ron Paul or Santorum would be particularly embarrassing. Also, a win by either of those two guys would totally negate Iowa, making New Hampshire "first", and putting a lot more emphasis on SC and Florida.

[Volrath50]

My brain is telling me Paul will overperform his polls and win:

Paul: 23%
Santorum: 21%
Romney: 17%

My gut is telling me Santorum's momentum will continue on until the 3rd:

Santorum: 26%
Paul 20%
Romney 17%

Both are expecting Romney to finish third, though.

I'd like to see a completely unexpected Gingrich win, to turn what is looking like a Mitt Romney coronation back into a race, though.

[A-Bob]

Ron Paul 22%
Rick Santorum 20%
Mitt Romney 18%
Newt Gingrich 17%
Rick Perry 14%
Michele Bachmann 7%
Jon Huntsman 1%
Buddy Roemer 1%

A slight change, but I don't think Santorum can make it to the top in time now looking at recent media. And I'm expecting a Cain endorsement tomorrow for Gingrich.

[TheGlobalizer]

Revising to:

Paul 27%
Romney 24%
Santorum 20%
Gingrich 10%
Perry 10%
Bachmann 6%
Huntsman 3%

Staying here, not convinced Santorum's momentum will persist and the socons/Gingrich continue to split the endorsements.  Could see Paul/Romney lower and the socons higher, but that's mainly a question of turnout.

[Lief]

I reserve the right to change this:

Paul: 25%
Perry: 22%
Romney: 17%
Santorum: 16%
Gingrich: 10%
Bachmann: 8%

Switch around Perry and Santorum:

Paul: 25%
Santorum: 22%
Romney: 17%
Perry: 16%
Gingrich: 10%
Bachmann: 8%

Updating my prediction as the situation on the ground rapidly changes:

Santorum: 27%
Paul: 24%
Romney: 17%
Perry: 15%
Gingrich: 9%
Bachmann: 6%

Probably my last update unless something game-changing happens tomorrow.

Santorum: 25%
Paul: 24%
Romney: 17%
Perry: 12%
Gingrich: 11%
Bachmann: 7%
Huntsman: 1%
Roemer: 1%

[shua]

Paul          23
Santorum  22
Romney    20
Gingrich    12
Bachmann   9
Perry          9
Huntsman   2
Roemer       1

[Reginald]

Santorum 22.1%
Paul 21.9%
Romney 21%
Gingrich 13%
Perry 12%
Bachmann 7%
Huntsman 2%
Other 1%

Tweaking this a tiny bit:

Santorum 23%
Paul 22%
Romney 21%
Gingrich 13%
Perry 12%
Bachmann 7%
Huntsman 2%

[A dog on every car, a car in every elevator]

Afterward, Donald Trump reminds everyone (correctly) that Bachmann and Perry each made a huge mistake when they turned down the Trump debate that could have saved their campaigns.