Tender Branson's Iowa Prediction Thread

[Lief 🗽]

I reserve the right to change this:

Paul: 25%
Perry: 22%
Romney: 17%
Santorum: 16%
Gingrich: 10%
Bachmann: 8%

[Lief 🗽]

I reserve the right to change this:

Paul: 25%
Perry: 22%
Romney: 17%
Santorum: 16%
Gingrich: 10%
Bachmann: 8%

Switch around Perry and Santorum:

Paul: 25%
Santorum: 22%
Romney: 17%
Perry: 16%
Gingrich: 10%
Bachmann: 8%

[Lief 🗽]

I reserve the right to change this:

Paul: 25%
Perry: 22%
Romney: 17%
Santorum: 16%
Gingrich: 10%
Bachmann: 8%

Switch around Perry and Santorum:

Paul: 25%
Santorum: 22%
Romney: 17%
Perry: 16%
Gingrich: 10%
Bachmann: 8%

Updating my prediction as the situation on the ground rapidly changes:

Santorum: 27%
Paul: 24%
Romney: 17%
Perry: 15%
Gingrich: 9%
Bachmann: 6%

[Lief 🗽]

What was the DMR's numbers right before the caucus?

In 2008? https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008R/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=19200712300

Aww, remember John Cox? He would have been a credible frontrunner for the 2012 Republican nomination for a few weeks.

[Lief 🗽]

Rick Santorum or Ron Paul are going to win. Mitt Romney is going to underpoll by about 5-6 points and will be closer to Perry/Gingrich than Santorum/Paul.

[Lief 🗽]

I reserve the right to change this:

Paul: 25%
Perry: 22%
Romney: 17%
Santorum: 16%
Gingrich: 10%
Bachmann: 8%

Switch around Perry and Santorum:

Paul: 25%
Santorum: 22%
Romney: 17%
Perry: 16%
Gingrich: 10%
Bachmann: 8%

Updating my prediction as the situation on the ground rapidly changes:

Santorum: 27%
Paul: 24%
Romney: 17%
Perry: 15%
Gingrich: 9%
Bachmann: 6%

Probably my last update unless something game-changing happens tomorrow.

Santorum: 25%
Paul: 24%
Romney: 17%
Perry: 12%
Gingrich: 11%
Bachmann: 7%
Huntsman: 1%
Roemer: 1%

[Lief 🗽]

I had one of my trademark pre-election dreams last night. These are not always super accurate but sometimes they are shockingly so. My dream told me the following:

Romney: 30%
Santorum: 30% (Romney narrowly won)
Paul: 16%
Perry: 12%

[Lief 🗽]

I had a dream about the collapse of a brutal dictatorship in the Utah Valley. What do you think that means, Lief?

Buy gold.

[Lief 🗽]

I had one of my trademark pre-election dreams last night. These are not always super accurate but sometimes they are shockingly so. My dream told me the following:

Romney: 30%
Santorum: 30% (Romney narrowly won)
Paul: 16%
Perry: 12%

IT'S OFFICIAL, I'm psychic. I'll let you guys know if I have any dreams before NH.