I ~~suspect~~ the Ron Paul is under polling, given that he has the most intense supporters.
Care to elaborate? It seems to me that Paul should be overpolling, since so much of his support comes from non-Republicans.
Firstly, let me say that anybody trying to poll a caucus state is very brave indeed. These things are really hard to poll.
But just as a rough guide, in 2008 about 1.6 million Iowans voted in the presidential election, and GOP turnout in the IOWA caucuses was about 120,000.
So as a very approximate baseline, turnout in the GOP caucus was abut 7.5% of the total presidential voting population., and if we assume the GOP and Dems are fairly evenly divided in Iowa (they are) GOP turnout for the caucus would be +/- 15% or so. (this is a very crude estimate)
The closely watched Register poll was based upon a 25% turnout (about 602 out of a bit over 2500 in the sample) - and I think 25% is a bit high as a turnout projection.
Romney's support is a bit squishy, Paul's people are fanatical.
I think Paul does a bit better than the polls suggest, Romney a bit worse..
But hey, it's a caucus, there is lots of egg on people's faces the day after....
