Tender Branson's Iowa Prediction Thread

[TheGlobalizer]

My ballparks:

Paul 28%
Romney 24%
Gingrich 16%
Santorum 12%
Bachmann 10%
Perry 10%
Huntsman MOE

Lots of fluidity in the bottom four and any one could make a charge if they become the consensus candidate, but I'm not seeing it thus far.  Santorum is the untainted hard-worker, Perry has the look / national name, and Bachmann has the favored daughter and was the first to go all-in for Iowa.  Gingrich is a persuasive talker but I think people have sufficiently caught on to his horsesh**.

I could see Paul cracking 30%, I could see Romney winning by as much as 5% (probably sub-30, though) - those are the only two I see winning.

[TheGlobalizer]

My ballparks:

Paul 28%
Romney 24%
Gingrich 16%
Santorum 12%
Bachmann 10%
Perry 10%
Huntsman MOE

Revising to:

Paul 27%
Romney 24%
Santorum 20%
Gingrich 10%
Perry 10%
Bachmann 6%
Huntsman 3%

[TheGlobalizer]

Revising to:

Paul 27%
Romney 24%
Santorum 20%
Gingrich 10%
Perry 10%
Bachmann 6%
Huntsman 3%

Staying here, not convinced Santorum's momentum will persist and the socons/Gingrich continue to split the endorsements.  Could see Paul/Romney lower and the socons higher, but that's mainly a question of turnout.

[TheGlobalizer]

Revising to:

Paul 27%
Romney 24%
Santorum 20%
Gingrich 10%
Perry 10%
Bachmann 6%
Huntsman 3%

Staying here, not convinced Santorum's momentum will persist and the socons/Gingrich continue to split the endorsements.  Could see Paul/Romney lower and the socons higher, but that's mainly a question of turnout.

Final predict.

Paul 25%
Santorum 22%
Romney 20%
Gingrich 13%
Perry 12%
Bachmann 6%
Huntsman 2%

Santorum surge is real but still doesn't seem consensus.  Perry and Gingrich have stabilized and have their strong supporters.  Paul will get his loyalists out.  Romney is a favorite but not enough to inspire caucus-goers.  Bachmann fades, Huntsman pisses away what little support he had with snobbery.

May be a little wishful thinking in there.  Any of Paul, Santorum, Romney can win, it will hinge on Santorum loyalty and Romney inspiration.