Tender Branson's Iowa Prediction Thread

[Averroës Nix]

I'll do another prediction later this week, but for now, here's my fair-weather prediction:

Paul - 20-25%
Romney - 20-30%
Perry - 10-15%
Gingrich - 10-15%
Santorum - 5-15%
Bachmann - 5-10%
Huntsman - 0-3%

Update (Post PPP poll):

Paul - 25%
Romney - 22%
Santorum - 16%
Perry - 16%
Bachmann - 10%
Gingrich - 8%
Huntsman - 2%

Still fluid; Paul and Romney are the most likely victors, and I expect both to finish no worse than third, but Santorum and Perry both have an outside chance.

[Averroës Nix]

12/28

Paul - 25%
Romney - 22%
Santorum - 16%
Perry - 16%
Bachmann - 10%
Gingrich - 8%
Huntsman - 2%

Today - 12/31 (pre-Des Moines Register poll)

Paul - 24%
Romney - 22%
Santorum - 22%
Perry - 14%
Gingrich - 8%
Bachmann - 7%
Huntsman - 2%

Romney-Paul-Santorum toss-up.

Excited about Bachmann's crash and Perry's stagnation; Santorum is definitely the most bearable of the three.

EDIT: Post-DRM poll update

Santorum - 26%
Paul - 23%
Romney - 22%
Perry - 13%
Gingrich - 8%
Bachmann - 6%
Huntsman - 1%

Changes are minor. DRM was mostly as expected, but I'm now expecting Santorum to pick up more support from Perry, Gingrich, and Bachmann supporters as well as undecideds.

[Averroës Nix]

Re-posting my final prediction that I'd added as an edit to my previous comment:

Santorum - 26%
Paul - 23%
Romney - 22%
Perry - 13%
Gingrich - 8%
Bachmann - 6%
Huntsman - 1%

Changes are minor. DRM was mostly as expected, but I'm now expecting Santorum to pick up more support from Perry, Gingrich, and Bachmann supporters as well as undecideds. Hope I'm not falling for a Flavor.

[Averroës Nix]

Final prediction; feeling less bullish about Santorum. No idea who will win:

Paul - 23%
Romney - 23%
Santorum - 21%
Gingrich - 12%
Perry - 11%
Bachmann - 7%
Huntsman - 2%