Omnibus 'congresscritters retiring next year' announcements

[Miles]

He voted with the GOP leadership 89% of the time; not really 'moderate', but thats pretty low relative to the rest of the caucus.

[Keystone Phil]

He voted with the GOP leadership 89% of the time; not really 'moderate', but thats pretty low relative to the rest of the caucus.

Which is why I used "streak." He was also known for angling for a spot in the Obama Administration.

[nkpatel1279]

Who was a better Representative for PA-19 Platts or Goodling.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Who was a better Representative for PA-19 Platts or Goodling.

yes

[RogueBeaver]

Breaking from POLITICO.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

R +1

[RogueBeaver]

His old rival George Phillips is probably running again. New Yorkers, who'll jump in for the Democrats?

[Napoleon]

Disappointing.

[RogueBeaver]

WaPo said his district could be up for elimination now.

[cinyc]

WaPo said his district could be up for elimination now.

Eliminating an Upstate Democrat and NYC-area Republican is theoretically doable, though the VRA and geography makes eliminating Turner's NY-09 a little harder than it may look, and he'd probably end up running against an incumbent Democrat in whatever district picks up his areas.  Plus, if Turner's election was a lucky fluke, you'd arguably be getting rid of two Democratic districts by eliminating NY-09.

One way it would work would be to use portions of NY-22 to make a Republican-leaning Upstate district Democratic-leaning.  Hinchey's district sucks up more Democratic-leaning areas of the Southern Tier.

[Brittain33]

Torie, are you disappointed?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

WaPo said his district could be up for elimination now.

It's possible, but how do they distribute it? It's surrounded by swing districts held by Republicans. I don't think Hanna's going to want to take on Ithaca, for example.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

What about Ulster, though?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I have a feeling a court would probably eliminate this district anyway, since there's no community of interest whatsoever to it, it's just a bunch of leftovers plus college towns neighboring Republican incumbents didn't want.

[smoltchanov]

Phillips is hardly the best candidate for this Democratic-leaning district. But most likely it will be dismantled during redistricting - that will piss no one and may even please most)))

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

What about Ulster, though?

Well, the closest Democratic district is the Albany one, but the population dynamics there really don't work without severe gerrymandering that would likely have the side-effect of screwing over Schenectady. I'd be interested in seeing parts of that area used to screw over Nan Hayworth, but that's probably not very likely.

[minionofmidas]

Any chance this retirement means there's progress on the map? (As in, Hinchey is retiring because his district is being eliminated, rather than the other way round.)

[minionofmidas]

At least it's a safe Republican seat.

Very strong lean Republican. There was no room to create any seats that would technically qualify as safe while protecting that many incumbents.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

*tries to refrain from making a joke about a certain individual who attends Redlands University and would be even worse than Lewis*

[Sbane]

So Dreier quits or shifts to 8, and Gary Miller shifts to 31?

Miller is going to run in the Redlands-San Bernadino CD (is that CA-31?), and I suspect will be somewhat of an underdog. Drier has not announced what he is going to do, but his fundraising last quarter was anemic.  I am not sure he would win a primary in the Victorville-Adelanto based CD if that is CA-08.

Drier should move to Rancho and run in the new 31st, try to say nice things about Hispanics in Spanish media to depress turnout in SBD, and he would have a fighting chance. Miller would lose that district every single time. He seems like a douche. He should maybe move to Apple Valley and run in the desert district.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

*tries to refrain from making a joke about a certain individual who attends Redlands University and would be even worse than Lewis*

A certain Redlands University student's Congressman

[Alcon]

LAAAAAAAADY

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It says a lot about this forum that the jokes are about a certain Bakersfield resident attending college there and not the telethon guy.

[krazen1211]

So Dreier quits or shifts to 8, and Gary Miller shifts to 31?

Miller is going to run in the Redlands-San Bernadino CD (is that CA-31?), and I suspect will be somewhat of an underdog. Drier has not announced what he is going to do, but his fundraising last quarter was anemic.  I am not sure he would win a primary in the Victorville-Adelanto based CD if that is CA-08.

Drier should move to Rancho and run in the new 31st, try to say nice things about Hispanics in Spanish media to depress turnout in SBD, and he would have a fighting chance. Miller would lose that district every single time. He seems like a douche. He should maybe move to Apple Valley and run in the desert district.

I thought that too. It makes more sense for Dreier to take the 56% Obama district sitting in (or bordering?) Los Angeles County while Garry Miller carpetbags over to the rural district to snooze for 5 terms.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

In regards to Hinchey, I've heard now that he had several operations for colon cancer, so this probably wasn't due to any redistricting threat.