Interesting video from Obama's campaign manager
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Author Topic: Interesting video from Obama's campaign manager  (Read 1159 times)
Joe Republic
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« on: December 30, 2011, 02:40:19 AM »

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=_7Y-Q9ZY5Ao

Nothing new that we election map junkies didn't already know, but it's still interesting to see this kind of strategy outlined so candidly by the head of the campaign.

Also, stay tuned til at least the 2:48 mark.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #1 on: December 30, 2011, 02:50:30 AM »

I don't think the ideas presented are all that secret. Demographics spell this out and the Republicans are quite aware of it. The BS part is more substantial and worth discussing, I'd say.
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Meeker
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« Reply #2 on: December 30, 2011, 02:53:20 AM »

2:50 is brilliant.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #3 on: December 30, 2011, 02:57:43 AM »

I don't think the ideas presented are all that secret. Demographics spell this out and the Republicans are quite aware of it.

I know it's not secret, but it's also not usual for presidential campaigns to plainly show voters/supporters exactly which states they're planning to focus on.  Usually they issue vague overtures like "every state is a battleground" and such, so as not to look like they're alienating voters anywhere.

Though I guess that already changed at least four years ago, with Hillary talking about 'real states', and Palin's 'Real America'.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #4 on: December 30, 2011, 03:06:48 AM »

Yeah, there does seem to be a lack of the "every state is important" rhetoric and I think that's mainly due to how close this election possibly will be and videos like that are made with the intent of supporters - specifically, volunteers - viewing them and being energized by them if they in fact live in those areas.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #5 on: December 30, 2011, 03:16:11 AM »
« Edited: December 30, 2011, 03:17:47 AM by Joe Lunchbucket »

Yeah, there does seem to be a lack of the "every state is important" rhetoric and I think that's mainly due to how close this election possibly will be and videos like that are made with the intent of supporters - specifically, volunteers - viewing them and being energized by them if they in fact live in those areas.

And what of the volunteers living in other areas?  Did you notice that Indiana and Missouri did not feature in any of their 'paths', even the Midwest-oriented one?  Obama won one and nearly won the other last time.  It's hardly going to energize his team in those states for a repeat performance there if his campaign manager admits that they're not even priorities.

Basically this video proves that Howard Dean's fairly successful '50-state strategy' is well and truly dead.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #6 on: December 30, 2011, 03:30:03 AM »

Yeah, there does seem to be a lack of the "every state is important" rhetoric and I think that's mainly due to how close this election possibly will be and videos like that are made with the intent of supporters - specifically, volunteers - viewing them and being energized by them if they in fact live in those areas.

And what of the volunteers living in other areas?  Did you notice that Indiana and Missouri did not feature in any of their 'paths', even the Midwest-oriented one?  Obama won one and nearly won the other last time.  It's hardly going to energize his team in those states for a repeat performance there if his campaign manager admits that they're not even priorities.

Basically this video proves that Howard Dean's fairly successful '50-state strategy' is well and truly dead.

I don't think the 50-state strategy is dead so much as it's dormant right now given the averse political conditions. Indiana and Missouri are probably lost causes unless the tide really turns blue, at which point they will not matter as much in securing victory. If Missouri and Indiana go blue, then Virginia, Florida, Nevada, Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania and probably North Carolina will too and at that point it's a landslide with or without them.

Arizona is a valuable investment as is Virginia and North Carolina. Pennsylvania should be safe Obama territory despite people still considering it a swing state in presidential elections. Ohio and Florida will need focus as does Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico.
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Reaganfan
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« Reply #7 on: December 30, 2011, 03:36:36 AM »

The fact that they are scouring for 270 or 275 or 272 and they won four years ago with 365 gives me some hope.
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Negusa Nagast 🚀
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« Reply #8 on: December 30, 2011, 03:47:56 AM »

The fact that they are scouring for 270 or 275 or 272 and they won four years ago with 365 gives me some hope.

I don't think its as much scouring as it is securing a 270 EV baseline, and then expanding from there. The Kerry/Gore States + NV and CO gives us 272. New Hampshire will be the big fight but if we get all of those it's just adding more change to the pile.
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Penelope
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« Reply #9 on: December 30, 2011, 03:52:11 AM »

The fact that they are scouring for 270 or 275 or 272 and they won four years ago with 365 gives me some hope.

I don't think its as much scouring as it is securing a 270 EV baseline, and then expanding from there. The Kerry/Gore States + NV and CO gives us 272. New Hampshire will be the big fight but if we get all of those it's just adding more change to the pile.

Pretty much this - it's just all the ways they can get to 270.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #10 on: December 30, 2011, 03:53:40 AM »

The fact that they are scouring for 270 or 275 or 272 and they won four years ago with 365 gives me some hope.

It all comes down to where the base begins:



DEM - 246
REP - 197
TOSS - 95


Just for graphical ease of access, here are the plans outlined in the video:


BASELINE:


WEST PATH:


FLORIDA PATH:


SOUTH PATH:


MIDWEST PATH:


EXPANSION PATH:
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Boris
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« Reply #11 on: December 30, 2011, 04:30:39 AM »

A lot of these maps seem kind of stupid. Win FL but lose IA, NM, NV, CO, VA (all of which except VA more (D) than the 2008 national average)? Win AZ but lose PA (which has been more (D) han the national average since like 1948)? I know things change and all, but their "West Path" seems like the only plausible scenario in a 50-50 race. Obama isn't winning like NC in a 49-49-2 election....
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #12 on: December 30, 2011, 04:37:40 AM »

They do seem rather ridiculous. I think it's meant to demonstrate a sign of strength, because obviously the result will end up combining more than one of those maps. It's essentially saying "we need one major swing state and two smaller ones out of these eleven to win, so suck it Republicans".
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bgwah
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« Reply #13 on: December 30, 2011, 04:43:02 AM »

I vote for the Western path.


Yeah, Obama funds himself with $5 donations. That's why when Obama visits WA he goes to Medina and leaves. Or why the SEIU President is the #1 White House visitor.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #14 on: December 30, 2011, 04:45:05 AM »

A lot of these maps seem kind of stupid. Win FL but lose IA, NM, NV, CO, VA (all of which except VA more (D) than the 2008 national average)? Win AZ but lose PA (which has been more (D) han the national average since like 1948)? I know things change and all, but their "West Path" seems like the only plausible scenario in a 50-50 race. Obama isn't winning like NC in a 49-49-2 election....

Don't forget that it was a fundraising video addressed to supporters.  The gist of it was 'The path to 270 votes we choose to follow depends on how much money you can send us'.  A financially broke presidential campaign (for argument's sake) would have no choice but to abandon some states they could feasibly win in favor of others.

His saying that the expectation of a billion dollar campaign is "bullsh**t" is itself bullsh**t.  Obama will have plenty of cash to fight all of these 'paths' in equal measures.  I just found his candidness interesting.
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bgwah
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« Reply #15 on: December 30, 2011, 04:52:36 AM »

His saying that the expectation of a billion dollar campaign is "bullsh**t" is itself bullsh**t.  Obama will have plenty of cash to fight all of these 'paths' in equal measures.  I just found his candidness interesting.

...Is it BS?

Obama spent $730 million in 2008. McCain spent $333 million. That's a billion dollars right there.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #16 on: December 30, 2011, 04:57:16 AM »

That's what I'm saying.  Messina said "People have speculated this is a billion dollar campaign.  That's bullsh**t."  But we all already know that that was bullsh**t.
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Politico
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« Reply #17 on: December 30, 2011, 05:33:14 AM »

It either comes down to Ohio/Florida or it ends up being a landslide for Romney.
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