Interesting video from Obama's campaign manager

[Joe Republic]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=_7Y-Q9ZY5Ao

Nothing new that we election map junkies didn't already know, but it's still interesting to see this kind of strategy outlined so candidly by the head of the campaign.

Also, stay tuned til at least the 2:48 mark.

[Joe Republic]

I don't think the ideas presented are all that secret. Demographics spell this out and the Republicans are quite aware of it.

I know it's not secret, but it's also not usual for presidential campaigns to plainly show voters/supporters exactly which states they're planning to focus on.  Usually they issue vague overtures like "every state is a battleground" and such, so as not to look like they're alienating voters anywhere.

Though I guess that already changed at least four years ago, with Hillary talking about 'real states', and Palin's 'Real America'.

[Joe Republic]

Yeah, there does seem to be a lack of the "every state is important" rhetoric and I think that's mainly due to how close this election possibly will be and videos like that are made with the intent of supporters - specifically, volunteers - viewing them and being energized by them if they in fact live in those areas.

And what of the volunteers living in other areas?  Did you notice that Indiana and Missouri did not feature in any of their 'paths', even the Midwest-oriented one?  Obama won one and nearly won the other last time.  It's hardly going to energize his team in those states for a repeat performance there if his campaign manager admits that they're not even priorities.

Basically this video proves that Howard Dean's fairly successful '50-state strategy' is well and truly dead.

[Joe Republic]

A lot of these maps seem kind of stupid. Win FL but lose IA, NM, NV, CO, VA (all of which except VA more (D) than the 2008 national average)? Win AZ but lose PA (which has been more (D) han the national average since like 1948)? I know things change and all, but their "West Path" seems like the only plausible scenario in a 50-50 race. Obama isn't winning like NC in a 49-49-2 election....

Don't forget that it was a fundraising video addressed to supporters.  The gist of it was 'The path to 270 votes we choose to follow depends on how much money you can send us'.  A financially broke presidential campaign (for argument's sake) would have no choice but to abandon some states they could feasibly win in favor of others.

His saying that the expectation of a billion dollar campaign is "bullsh**t" is itself bullsh**t.  Obama will have plenty of cash to fight all of these 'paths' in equal measures.  I just found his candidness interesting.

[Joe Republic]

That's what I'm saying.  Messina said "People have speculated this is a billion dollar campaign.  That's bullsh**t."  But we all already know that that was bullsh**t.