IA PrimR: Marist College: Romney slightly ahead of Paul, Santorum-surge continues

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Iowa President by Marist College on 2011-12-28

Summary:

Romney:	23%
Paul:	21%
Santorum:	15%
Perry:	14%
Gingrich:	13%
Bachmann:	6%
Other:	1%
Undecided:	7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Niemeyerite]

Can we trust Marist in Iowa? Have they polled Iowa before?

[Tender Branson]

Can we trust Marist in Iowa? Have they polled Iowa before?

Yes we can:

"Among likely voters, Obama receives 52% to McCain’s 42%."

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/Battleground2008/IA081027.pdf

Actual result in IA: 54% Obama, 44% McCain

They had the best result for IA, together with Mason-Dixon.

[Badger]

Bachmann is the only one apparently collapsing, as the stream of top level staff and supporters should tell us. I'm calling it now: she's out after IA (or reduced to Kucinich 04 post-Super Tuesday irrelevance if she refuses to quit).

Good numbers for Perry. It'll be tough for Santorum to vault into even the top two if he continues.

Romney continues his strategy of divide, divide again, and conquer; and it seems to be working. Unlike when other anti-Romney candidates faded, Romney seems to be undergoing a "mini-surge" of his own (or at least consolidating his support). What-if scenarios aside, Romney seems to have a better than even chance of winning this by simply breaking a quarter of the vote!

[Rowan]

There is some news of some internal polling that is confirming the Santorum surge. It would be nice if we had a catchall "Iowa" thread in the main 2012 forum.

[Niemeyerite]

Can we trust Marist in Iowa? Have they polled Iowa before?

Yes we can:

"Among likely voters, Obama receives 52% to McCain’s 42%."

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/Battleground2008/IA081027.pdf

Actual result in IA: 54% Obama, 44% McCain

They had the best result for IA, together with Mason-Dixon.

Thanks, Tender

[Alcon]

There is some news of some internal polling that is confirming the Santorum surge. It would be nice if we had a catchall "Iowa" thread in the main 2012 forum.

"Some news of some internal polling"?

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(But I am interested in the source, because honestly, do we have anything better to do?)

[Rowan]

There is some news of some internal polling that is confirming the Santorum surge. It would be nice if we had a catchall "Iowa" thread in the main 2012 forum.

"Some news of some internal polling"?

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!!!!11111111111111111111111111111

(But I am interested in the source, because honestly, do we have anything better to do?)

From this dude(former chair of Iowa R Party):

"Internal campaign poll has Santorum in 2nd behind Romney by 2 pts. Paul 3rd. One night calling has error risks, but validates surge. #cnn"

http://twitter.com/sgrubbs/status/152617487526133760

[Keystone Phil]

There is some news of some internal polling that is confirming the Santorum surge. It would be nice if we had a catchall "Iowa" thread in the main 2012 forum.

"Some news of some internal polling"?

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!!!!11111111111111111111111111111

(But I am interested in the source, because honestly, do we have anything better to do?)

From this dude(former chair of Iowa R Party):

"Internal campaign poll has Santorum in 2nd behind Romney by 2 pts. Paul 3rd. One night calling has error risks, but validates surge. #cnn"

http://twitter.com/sgrubbs/status/152617487526133760

Someone felt the need to send that to me at 5:20 this morning. A pleasure to wake up to that news but maybe a little early. 

[tmthforu94]

A pleasant surprise how well Romney is doing.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Looks like its going to come down to how many non-Republicans show up to vote. If lots do, Paul has it easily, but if they don't Romney has it in the bag.

[big bad fab]

Even if Paul or Santorum surges eventually to 25 or above, it's very good news for Romney.
If he then avoids a total collapse in SC, whatever the winner there, it's a shoo-in.

[King]

Dearest GOP field,

Stop attacking Gingrich and Paul.  Go after Romney or else it's over on Jan 3.

[TheGlobalizer]

Dearest GOP field,

Stop attacking Gingrich and Paul.  Go after Romney or else it's over on Jan 3.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Dearest GOP field,

Stop attacking Gingrich and Paul.  Go after Romney or else it's over on Jan 3.

[Zarn]

Dearest GOP field,

Stop attacking Gingrich and Paul.  Go after Romney or else it's over on Jan 3.

No common sense please. Thank you.

[Peeperkorn]

How much banker's money invested Romney in this?

[tpfkaw]

I think that Romney has probably played into the GOP field's egotism by sending out fake running mate feelers to every other candidate.

[The Mikado]

Dearest GOP field,

Stop attacking Gingrich and Paul.  Go after Romney or else it's over on Jan 3.

Honestly, I suspect they know that and no longer really care at this point.  The GOP seems resigned to a Romney win now, even if they don't want it.

[Хahar 🤔]

Why would Mitt Romney choose Michele Bachmann? That doesn't make even a little sense.

It seems very likely now that Romney's going to win Iowa, of course. Considering Paul's demographics, he had to have a big lead in the polls, and now that's gone.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Why would Mitt Romney choose Michele Bachmann? That doesn't make even a little sense.

It seems very likely now that Romney's going to win Iowa, of course. Considering Paul's demographics, he had to have a big lead in the polls, and now that's gone.

Obama rode to victory on a wave of crossover independents and the youth in 2008, and that was with a Republican caucus occurring at the same time. Its not hard to imagine something similar happening this time.