According to the article, they only polled Republicans. Another trash poll...
Why do they do that? Are they really that clueless?
They are trying to create a narrative.
This may end up backfiring on Romney. If they increase expectations that Romney win Iowa, and he ends up getting 3rd or 4th, then that will harm him very badly.
Yeah, it depends. On one hand, it could position someone else as the "not Romney" choice for Republicans and could drown out any independent/Democratic Paul voters.
On the other, the media has begun hyping up the importance of Iowa again. If independent turnout is sizable, Paul's going to win it and it will be hard to backtrack from their brand new claims that "Iowa matters".
My guess is that they figure that the independents won't show. Only thing left is to wait and see.