IA PrimR: Public Policy Polling: Paul, Romney, Santorum lead the way

[tmthforu94]

New Poll: Iowa President by Public Policy Polling on 2012-01-01

Summary:

Paul:	20%
Romney:	19%
Santorum:	18%
Gingrich:	14%
Perry:	10%
Bachmann:	8%
Other:	7%
Undecided:	4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[tmthforu94]

Some notes:
-Paul's favorables went down 21 points since the last poll
-Santorum, Romney, Bachmann, and Perry are the only ones with positive favorables (Santorum's the highest)
-76% are now strongly committed to their candidate

[Dereich]

Huntsman: 4

Huntsmentum!

[tmthforu94]

Well, Paul supporters should be happy he hasn't collapsed, though he's not winning over the undecideds like he needs to.

Despite the last few polls having Romney on top, I'm feeling pretty confident that Santorum will be the winner, unless Branstead or King makes a last-second endorsement.

[CLARENCE 2015!]

Wow........ Go Santorum! I am still a Newt supporter but Santorum has always been my #2

[argentarius]

We're still alive! Hopefully Huntsman takes a little more from Romney to put him in third.

[retromike22]

With Republicans: Romney 21, Santorum 19, Paul 17. Indys/Dems: Paul 30, Romney/Santorum 14.

[tmthforu94]

With Republicans: Romney 21, Santorum 19, Paul 17. Indys/Dems: Paul 30, Romney/Santorum 14.

Oh the irony...

[Reginald]

Tuesday night's going to be fun if the results are really this close!

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

REBOUND MOMENTUM FOR PAUL
(Not serious)
------

Okay. I'm sticking to what I was saying earlier.

Polling caucuses is insanely tricky, so this will all come down to voter turnout and last minute decisions by soft support. I don't have a damn clue how it'll turn out; Paul has easily the best organization and his base is the most fanatical, but his younger/poorer/independenter supporters also have the lowest traditional turnout, Santorum has the worst organization of the three (Not intended as an attack, he just doesn't have the cash and is unlikely to do much from his truck), but his base of support (social cons) is the most traditionally reliable and Romney is between the two with his elderly and upper class support.

I'm going with the gut feeling that Paul's going to triumph here. Everything I've heard from Iowa indicates he has an excellent campaign apparatus, and he has far more area to expand to (Romney is unlikely to get more seniors or wealthy to show up then are already coming, Santorum could conceivably get more evangelicals but some of his old reputation as well as his Catholic faith prevent him from becoming Huckabee), with lots and lots of potential independent/Democratic backup if his campaign does things correctly.

Of course, anything is possible for the top three right now. Since I'm no welcher, though, I'm sticking to my "if Santorum wins I'm making an apology to Phil and leaving the forum" promise.

[argentarius]

Looking at the crosstabs, it doesn't give you the day by day support for each of them but Paul appears to poll better on Sunday as does Santorum (though Paul's increase is bigger) and Mitt's declines.

[Meeker]

Rick should promise Michele the VP nod if she drops out tomorrow and endorses him.

[Mr. Morden]

Like I said in the other thread, why in the world would they poll on New Year's Eve, when the results are sure to be worthless?  What's the point?

[they don't love you like i love you]

Like I said in the other thread, why in the world would they poll on New Year's Eve, when the results are sure to be worthless?  What's the point?

Not really like they have a choice due to the schedule and besides it's not like polls are done around 10PM to midnight.

[Eraserhead]

Agree with Morden. I like PPP as much as the next guy but attempting to poll over New Year's Eve/Day is about as retarded as it gets.

That said, these would be fun results! Just switch Romney and Gingrich up!

[Eraserhead]

Like I said in the other thread, why in the world would they poll on New Year's Eve, when the results are sure to be worthless?  What's the point?

Not really like they have a choice due to the schedule and besides it's not like polls are done around 10PM to midnight.

Still silly. I bet they didn't want their last poll not to catch the Santorum bump though.

[Niemeyerite]

Like I said in the other thread, why in the world would they poll on New Year's Eve, when the results are sure to be worthless?  What's the point?

Not really like they have a choice due to the schedule and besides it's not like polls are done around 10PM to midnight.

Still silly. I bet they didn't want their last poll not to catch the Santorum bump though.

Even if it's silly, PPP may be the most accurate poll (again).

[Mr. Morden]

I think in 2008, there was one pollster who did a poll that combined interviews from Dec. 30 and Jan. 1, but specifically skipped Dec. 31, because polling on Dec. 31 is worthless.  Typically, only outfits like ARG and Zogby poll on Dec. 31.

OTOH, in this poll, it looks like they got nearly identical results on both nights, so maybe it's OK.

[Bull Moose Base]

Is there really that much overlap between the caucusgoer demos and the go-out-on-New-Years-Eve demos? Am I stereotyping unfairly to think most Iowa conservatives are parents by the time they're 19?

[Mr. Morden]

Is there really that much overlap between the caucusgoer demos and the go-out-on-New-Years-Eve demos? Am I stereotyping unfairly to think most Iowa conservatives are parents by the time they're 19?

You don't think 50-somethings ever go to New Year's parties?

[Keystone Phil]

Guys, it's not like they were polling at 10 PM or something on New Year's Eve. People are home during the day. I'm from Philly so New Year's Day is a big deal but is it really that big of a deal in places like Iowa?

[they don't love you like i love you]

Yeah I actually agree with Phil for once. Polling doesn't happen during the same time as New Year's Eve parties.

[King]

Iowa Republicans have an 8pm bedtime and church in the morning.  They held their New Years Eve parties at 5:30 after dinner.

[Zarn]

The poll shows that Paul broadens the GOP base, but once again GOPers don't think.

[Хahar 🤔]

OTOH, in this poll, it looks like they got nearly identical results on both nights, so maybe it's OK.

But if the acceptability of the poll depends on the results it gives, doesn't that make it worthless? It can't tell us anything we don't know.