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| | |-+  Likehood of another cohabitation?
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Author Topic: Likehood of another cohabitation?  (Read 365 times)
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Kalwejt
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« on: May 26, 2012, 08:13:48 pm »
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After Francois Mitterrand was elected President in 1981, he dissolved the National Assembly in order to obtain a majority for his new Prime Minister, Pierre Mauroy, and succeeded. For the first five of his seven-years term, Mitterrand enjoyed a parliamentary majority. However, with Assembly's term ending in 1986 (and Mauroy being replaced by Lolo in 1984), there was a new election which rightist coalition of RPR and UDF won, thus forging Mitterrand to name a Prime Minister for the opposition, for the first time in Fifth Republic's history.

Jacques Chirac headed a rightist government for two years remaining years, until Mitterrand was reelected, named a Socialist Prime Minister, Michel Rocard, and, again, dissolved the National Assembly. After five years, with Mitterrand changing his Prime Minister twice (Cresson and Beregovoy), the Socialist Party suffered an unspeakable electoral defeat and right formed a government again, this time under Edouard Balladur, since Chirac didn't want to be Prime Minister and a presidential candidate at the same time, remembering 1988 lesson.

After the two remaining years of Mitterrand's tenure, in 1995, Chirac was elected President and decided not to dissolve the parliament, since he had a whooping 485 to 91 majority. Two years later he finally called new election, which resulted in Socialist victory and the third cohabitation, as Lionel Jospin became Prime Minister. Third cohabitation lasted a whole five years.

In 2002, presidential and parliamentary elections basically coincidences as did again in 2007, as Chirac's second term was shortened from seven to five years. Of course each time party of a newly-elected President won a majority.

So, with presidential and parliamentary elections coinciding, what is a likehood of yet another cohabitation in future (since Socialist are basically shoo-in to win June legislative election)?

The only way I see is the President dissolving the Assembly mid-term and ending this coincidence.
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batmacumba
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« Reply #1 on: May 28, 2012, 12:44:27 am »
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After Francois Mitterrand was elected President in 1981, he dissolved the National Assembly in order to obtain a majority for his new Prime Minister, Pierre Mauroy, and succeeded. For the first five of his seven-years term, Mitterrand enjoyed a parliamentary majority. However, with Assembly's term ending in 1986 (and Mauroy being replaced by Lolo in 1984), there was a new election which rightist coalition of RPR and UDF won, thus forging Mitterrand to name a Prime Minister for the opposition, for the first time in Fifth Republic's history.

Jacques Chirac headed a rightist government for two years remaining years, until Mitterrand was reelected, named a Socialist Prime Minister, Michel Rocard, and, again, dissolved the National Assembly. After five years, with Mitterrand changing his Prime Minister twice (Cresson and Beregovoy), the Socialist Party suffered an unspeakable electoral defeat and right formed a government again, this time under Edouard Balladur, since Chirac didn't want to be Prime Minister and a presidential candidate at the same time, remembering 1988 lesson.

After the two remaining years of Mitterrand's tenure, in 1995, Chirac was elected President and decided not to dissolve the parliament, since he had a whooping 485 to 91 majority. Two years later he finally called new election, which resulted in Socialist victory and the third cohabitation, as Lionel Jospin became Prime Minister. Third cohabitation lasted a whole five years.

In 2002, presidential and parliamentary elections basically coincidences as did again in 2007, as Chirac's second term was shortened from seven to five years. Of course each time party of a newly-elected President won a majority.

So, with presidential and parliamentary elections coinciding, what is a likehood of yet another cohabitation in future (since Socialist are basically shoo-in to win June legislative election)?

The only way I see is the President dissolving the Assembly mid-term and ending this coincidence.

Dunno. As I pointed months ago (and unadvertedly made Hashemite and Antonio rant a lot), rightwingers are individually better availed. We shall see if France keeps on voting for parties or if personalism is trending in French politics.
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