Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 18, 2014, 08:17:34 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  International Elections (Moderators: Comrade Sibboleth, PASOK Leader Hashemite)
| | |-+  Queensland, Australia 2012
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 [4] Print
Author Topic: Queensland, Australia 2012  (Read 5763 times)
RogueBeaver
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12649
Canada


View Profile
« Reply #75 on: March 24, 2012, 07:57:55 pm »
Ignore

Exit polls showed 44% of voters saying the carbon tax influenced their vote.

Yet the federal ALP still doesn't believe policy is their problem. Which suits me just fine. Smiley
Logged

+7.35, +3.65



Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
Fmr. President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12513
Australia


View Profile
« Reply #76 on: March 24, 2012, 08:40:30 pm »
Ignore

Exit polls showed 44% of voters saying the carbon tax influenced their vote.

They never dig deep in questions like that...

I'd like to know to what extent the carbon tax influenced their vote... because if I were asked that question, as someone who supports pricing carbon, I suppose the carbon tax would have influenced my vote... but it wouldn't have been the primary factor.
Logged


Dogma is a comfortable thing, it saves you from thought - Sir Robert Menzies
Comrade Sibboleth
Realpolitik
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 55447
Saint Helena


View Profile WWW
« Reply #77 on: March 24, 2012, 08:48:14 pm »

Should not be forgotten that the ALP have been governing Queensland for all but two of the past twenty three years.
Logged



Richard Hoggart 1918-2014
Fmr. President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12513
Australia


View Profile
« Reply #78 on: March 24, 2012, 08:50:49 pm »
Ignore

Should not be forgotten that the ALP have been governing Queensland for all but two of the past twenty three years.

I think this is the core of the "they just stopped listening" argument...and why the result was such a ridiculous blow-out. It was a visceral electoral reaction...
Logged


Dogma is a comfortable thing, it saves you from thought - Sir Robert Menzies
Nichlemn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1343


View Profile
« Reply #79 on: March 24, 2012, 09:54:10 pm »
Ignore

Wasn't privatisation a major factor in this and the NSW elections? Was it more because voters don't like privatisation (hence oddly Labor loses for being too right-wing) or because they bungled the handling of it?
Logged
redcommander
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3833
View Profile
« Reply #80 on: March 25, 2012, 02:58:38 am »
Ignore

How does everyone think Blumiba and Mackay are going to go? I know the ABC predicts Blumiba will be an ALP retain, but it's still a seat in doubt.
Logged
Smid
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5989
Australia


View Profile
« Reply #81 on: March 25, 2012, 03:27:43 am »
Ignore

How does everyone think Blumiba and Mackay are going to go? I know the ABC predicts Blumiba will be an ALP retain, but it's still a seat in doubt.

Bulimba has been gentrifying over the past fifteen years or so. It has shown a resistance to voting Liberal, however. I somewhat expected the corresponding Morningside ward to go Liberal in the 2004 council election, but again, it didn't. It loves Rudd and he lives in that area. I would expect it to flip before Lytton, but you may recall from my post the other day, I didn't expect either to flip. Anyway, Bulimba is a beautiful area. Oxford Street is quite treelined and filled with very good restaurants and cafés. Take the CityCat there and you can enjoy the trip up the river, too.

Mackay is federally in Dawson, but I don't know how it voted during the Howard years, although it was a safe seat, so I think it probably was at least marginally for the Coalition.

Anyway, although I could see both seats going LNP, I think Labor will be safe. I doubt the LNP devoted many resources into a postal vote campaign, so Labor's margin will probably increase. Possibly even in places like Ipswich and Morayfield and the aforementioned Lytton, which were LNP last night, I don't know if there are enough postals to change the result. Add Logan and Waterford, too.
« Last Edit: March 25, 2012, 10:03:26 pm by Smid »Logged
Smid
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5989
Australia


View Profile
« Reply #82 on: March 25, 2012, 04:52:42 pm »
Ignore

Might as well also use this thread for the up-coming South Brisbane by-election.

Meanwhile, here is an op-ed piece on Labor's smear campaign that mentions a touch of internal polling:
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/labor-dirt-enraged-voters/story-fnbwr276-1226309692850
Logged
RogueBeaver
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12649
Canada


View Profile
« Reply #83 on: March 25, 2012, 05:10:10 pm »
Ignore

Lab will hold it.

Smear campaign: As a Canuck, it reminds me of this 1993 PC ad- the final nail in the coffin.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PikszBkfTHM
Logged

+7.35, +3.65



Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
Frodo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13287
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #84 on: April 01, 2012, 12:08:03 pm »
Ignore

I am not sure how credible this source is (I assume it is), but here's an excellent article explaining the reasons for Labor's demise.

And it looks as if the two major center-right parties are getting concerned about the rise of Katter's Australian Party.

What exactly is the Australian Party, and what makes it more rightwing than either the Liberals or the Nationals? 
« Last Edit: April 01, 2012, 12:11:39 pm by Frodo in a Hoodie »Logged

Хahar
Xahar
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 38367
Bangladesh


View Profile
« Reply #85 on: April 01, 2012, 01:38:29 pm »
Ignore

Katter's an agrarian nationalist, as it were. He supports nationalization and whatnot where it would be beneficial to farmers, but he's a hard-line social conservative. Unlike Oakeshott, whom he superficially resembles, he decided to back Abbott rather than Gillard after the last election.
Logged

Update reading list

The idea of parodying the preceding Atlasian's postings is laughable, of course, but not for reasons one might expect.
Smid
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5989
Australia


View Profile
« Reply #86 on: April 01, 2012, 06:57:24 pm »
Ignore

That SBS article is good at explaining the background that helped undermine the government and to put Labor's position into a historic context. I completely agree where it mentions that one of the major setbacks is Labor losing future leaders. Additionally, it's hard to be a credible alternative with so few seats, which can discourage voters next election and make it even harder to rebuild - I witnessed that when the Liberals were reduced to three seats in 2001 - after that, people didn't think we could win so there was a bit of a "why would we waste our vote on you when you can't win" sort of an attitude.

It's one of the problems of not having an Upper House - fewer MPs so fewer places to nurture talent. The large councils also mean fewer "enclaves" of strong voters because rates money levied by council can be redistributed from wealthy areas to less wealthy ones, rather than being spent on, for example, "opera in the park" like one of the Melbourne councils is able to host. That makes the city more homogenous throughout, which is the point raised in the SBS article. That's not to say there are no variations - Ascot, Clayfield and Hamilton, plus also Teneriffe, and then also Indooroopilly, Fig Tree Pocket, Chelmer, Graceville and Chapel Hill, which are all quite Liberal, and Sandgate and Nudgee and Lutwyche and Geebung, plus South Brisbane through to Dutton Park and Annerley and down to Rocklea, plus Wynnum, Manly, Lota and Murrarie, which are all safer Labor. They're not as safe as some parts of Sydney and Melbourne, though, so the Liberals lost some of those safe areas in 2001, while Labor lost some of their safer areas last Saturday. I'll try to sit down and get you high and low vote results at booths in those suburbs when I have the chance to sit down at the computer and look at the electoral commission websites.
« Last Edit: April 02, 2012, 07:45:31 pm by Smid »Logged
Smid
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5989
Australia


View Profile
« Reply #87 on: April 02, 2012, 07:48:26 pm »
Ignore

As usual, Antony Green provides incredible insight into Australian politics, with an article looking at the fortunes at a state level of parties governing at a federal level.
Logged
Smid
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5989
Australia


View Profile
« Reply #88 on: April 04, 2012, 06:39:17 pm »
Ignore

Antony Green estimates (based on primary vote counts of declaration votes, and preference flows of ordinary votes) an LNP lead of 43 votes in Bulimba. He reports that LNP scrutineers have told him that it's actually an 85 vote lead, and Labor scrutineers agree that the LNP lead is in that vicinity.
Logged
Smid
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5989
Australia


View Profile
« Reply #89 on: April 28, 2012, 05:44:24 am »
Ignore

South Brisbane by-election results and LNP leads in early counting. Conservative parts of the electorate have reported early, so the LNP lead is expected to diminish - Antony Green is projecting Labor to win with 50.8% 2PP.
Logged
Smid
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5989
Australia


View Profile
« Reply #90 on: May 15, 2012, 11:07:00 pm »
Ignore

2012 Queensland Election - Katter's Australian Party Primary Vote



Nothing especially earth-shatteringly interesting. Katter's Party did best in seats which his federal seat overlaps. The party did worst in inner-city Brisbane, and got better radiating out from there.
Logged
Smid
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5989
Australia


View Profile
« Reply #91 on: May 22, 2012, 01:59:01 am »
Ignore

2012 Queensland Election - Greens Party Primary Vote



Again - much to be expected: the Greens did best in downtown Brisbane, and very poorly in remote rural areas. The best result for the Greens was in Mount Coot-tha, and I recall a newspaper article the day before the election suggesting that this seat was their best chance at electing an MP. Of course, they still came third in the seat. In Noosa, the Two Candidate Preferred result was actually LNP vs Greens, although the Greens primary vote in that electorate was lower than in Mount Coot-tha.

I find it somewhat interesting how much better the Greens did on the Sunshine Coast, relative to the Gold Coast, although I think the Gold Coast probably has substantially more retirees, and perhaps the Sunshine Coast has more hippy-type surfers? Noosa definitely has a bit of an "alternate" lifestyle in parts - I think a nudist beach (I'm not sure whether it's an actual nudist beach, or whether the police turn a blind eye on public exposure laws there... I know that I've heard of it - I think I first heard of it back when I was in high school). I'm quite surprised how well they did in Glass House - my thoughts on that electorate, other than the obvious Glass House Mountains, is pineapple farms and pine plantations along the Bruce Highway.

Ashgrove stands out as having a lower percentage of Greens voters than most surrounding electorates - possibly due to the tight contest between the LNP and Labor?

Logged
Smid
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5989
Australia


View Profile
« Reply #92 on: May 22, 2012, 02:23:10 am »
Ignore

2012 Queensland Election - Labor Party Primary Vote




Not too many surprises here. Labor did not receive a primary vote majority in any electorate - its best result was in Woodridge (46.75%), closely followed by Inala (46.22%). Labor's worst result was in Nicklin (7.86%). Nicklin is typically a conservative electorate, however has been held by an independent since 1998. It is therefore likely that many Labor voters switched to vote for him because they recognised that his loss would probably result in an LNP gain.

Of seats won by Labor, their worst result was recorded in Mulgrave (34.5%) - in essentially a three-way tie with the LNP (32%) and Katter's Party (29.95%).

Labor's vote in South Brisbane (38.57%) was also low, largely due to a Greens vote of 18.07% - they still achieved a plurality in that seat. In Mackay, Labor recorded a similar vote of 38.58%, and in that case the third party also received a similar portion of the vote - 18.94% for Katter's Party.

Of seats lost by Labor, their best result was in Bulimba (42.91%). This result was actually Labor's third-best result (behind Woodridge and Inala).

On the Gold Coast, seats held by incumbent Labor MPs are quite obvious on the map. Indeed, looking solely at the Southeast Queensland inset, the 25% shading tone is the dividing shade between seats which had an incumbent Labor MP and seats which did not - with the sole exception of Cleveland. All of the pink shades had either an LNP Member elected at the last election, or an independent elected at the last election (Nicklin), or elected an LNP MP who subsequently crossed the floor and became an independent, before finally becoming the parliamentary leader of Katter's Party (Beaudesert). All of the red or dark red shaded electorates voted Labor in 2009 (with the aformentioned exception of Cleveland).
Logged
Smid
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5989
Australia


View Profile
« Reply #93 on: May 22, 2012, 02:45:59 am »
Ignore

2012 Queensland Election - LNP Primary Vote




The worst result for the LNP was in Gladstone (10.86%). Like Labor's result in Nicklin, the seat is typically Labor, and the independent (first elected in 1995) is certainly a safer bet for conservative voters in the seat. In 2009, the LNP didn't run a candidate in the seat (if I remember correctly - they certainly haven't contested it at every election in recent years).

The LNP's best result was in Surfers Paradise (72.63%).

The worst result for the LNP in a seat they ended up winning was Maryborough (35.79%).

The worst result for the LNP in a seat which they won in 2009 was Burnett (40.01%), however in this seat, the MP crossed the floor and sat as an independent, so the incumbent MP was not with the LNP going into the election.

Setting aside Burnett, the worst result for the LNP in a seat which they won in 2009 was Hinchinbrook (44.04%), which is partially in Katter's federal seat, and where Katter's Party achieved 35.24%.

The LNP received more than 50% of the primary vote in 45 seats, and less than 50% of the primary vote in the remaining 44 seats - in other words, if all preferences flowed against the party, it still would have managed a one seat majority in the House.

The highest vote for the LNP in a seat that it did not win was South Brisbane (38.07%).
Logged
Smid
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5989
Australia


View Profile
« Reply #94 on: May 22, 2012, 02:49:33 am »
Ignore

2012 Queensland Election - Two Candidate Preferred




Two candidate preferred results, as estimated by Antony Green. The Electoral Commission did not perform a full preference distribution in every seat, which is why estimated results must be used. Antony Green provides a full description of his procedure on his blog.

Note that the 2CP result in Noosa is LNP vs Greens.
Logged
Smid
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5989
Australia


View Profile
« Reply #95 on: May 22, 2012, 02:52:25 am »
Ignore

2012 Queensland Election - Two Party Preferred




Two Party Preferred results compare the Labor and non-Labor vote in each electorate, regardless of which two candidates received the highest results under 2CP.

These results have also been estimated - as explained by Antony Green on his blog.

Gladstone has been considered Labor vs non-Labor, rather than estimating the distribution of preferences, as outlined in his article.
« Last Edit: May 22, 2012, 02:53:57 am by Smid »Logged
Nichlemn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1343


View Profile
« Reply #96 on: May 22, 2012, 05:20:27 am »
Ignore

Why is Surfer's Paradise so LNP? Is the name misleading as to its demographics (is it mostly retirees?)
Logged
Smid
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5989
Australia


View Profile
« Reply #97 on: May 22, 2012, 06:21:00 am »
Ignore

Actually, neither, really. More like fabulously wealthy and mansions on canal estates and high rise apartments overlooking either the ocean, or the hinterland. I've never visited the US (passed through LAX, but that doesn't count) but it makes me think of sort of a combination of Miami (high-rise overlooking the water), Hollywood and Las Vegas. I mean, there's all the glitz and glamour, but also the tans and breast implants and that sort of thing. The canal estate part is probably similar to Beverley Hills mansions.

A google image search will probably give you a fair idea - searching "Surfers Paradise" will show you the high rise, and maybe an aerial shot will show the river and canals behind. "Isle of Capri" and "Chevron Island" will give you an idea of the canal estates and mansions. Obviously you're not after the Isle of Capri in the Mediterranean, so you may want to mention Gold Coast or Surfers in your image search. Realestate.com.au may have dome listings for the area, too, which you may want to view. You may see reference to Q1, which is the very tall building right by the beach.
Logged
Nichlemn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1343


View Profile
« Reply #98 on: May 22, 2012, 06:42:11 am »
Ignore

I've been there, lol, but it was a long time ago.
Logged
Smid
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5989
Australia


View Profile
« Reply #99 on: May 22, 2012, 04:44:35 pm »
Ignore

I wondered if you might have, since you're just a hop, skip and a jump away.

The Southern end of the Gold Coast is less commercial and more suburban, and there are still rural parts in the hinterland - if you drive from Currumbin Beach up to the Currumbin Valley, following Currumbin Creek (up towards the rock pools), it doesn't take long before there are farms and cows on both sides of the road. That end of the Coast reminds me more of Hawaii in that George Clooney movie from earlier this year - outside the tourist centres and it seems like it's just a bit more laid back.

The Northern end of the Gold Coast (North of Surfers - around Southport) is more the retirement area of the Coast. I think Antony Green mentions Broadbeach as one of the top three electorates with the highest proportion aged over 60).

The Sunshine Coast has a much different feel. Caloundra has become more commercial than when I was growing up, and has plenty of high rise buildings. I haven't been in Maroochydore in a few years, but it has some high rise as well. Kawana is more suburban, as is Caloundra once you're outside the main centre. I remember in high school, going to visit someone in Buderim, and it was a new housing estate (suburbia), with beautiful hills, but that was a good fifteen years or so ago. I still buy Buderim Ginger (their chocolate coated ginger is fantastic) and I believe that is still processed there, and I think still grown on a farm there, so perhaps it's not entirely suburban. I think there is also some National Park there, with a waterfall. Glasshouse is becoming more suburban in parts (close to Caloundra). Noosa, as I said, has a bit of an alternative lifestyle up there, but I also know plenty of Southerners go there for holidays, so it certainly has a tourist aspect to it as well. I can't remember the last time I was there. The retirement part of the Sunshine Coast is Bribie Island, which has a small canal estate and a golf course designed by Greg Norman. That part of Bribie Island is actually not technically Sunshine Coast, and in the electorate of Pumicestone (another of the top three, according to Antony Green, the other being Hervey Bay).
Logged
Pages: 1 2 3 [4] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines