Queensland, Australia 2012

[RogueBeaver]

www.youtube.com/watch?v=0l7XEaTwPSA

The ALP conceeding in their own adverts.

Unless LNP has constitutional change up their sleeve, no real difference. I'm more interested in how this curbstomping affects the federal narrative.

[crypto-fascist superhero]

www.youtube.com/watch?v=0l7XEaTwPSA

The ALP conceeding in their own adverts.

Wow, that's pathetic.

(Although it actually has worked before in the US, in the '72 and '84 congressional elections).

[Secretary Polnut]

Predicting QLD and NSW are always tough asks because of the option preferential...

I think the swing will be in the margin of 5-7%, but it will not be uniform.

Looking over seats and numbers, I'm looking at maybe the ALP losing between 18 and 25 seats.

14 years is  VERY long time for one party to be in power. I personally don't think Bligh is a bad premier, much like Kenneally, she was lumped with a useless front-bench.

[Smid]

It's tough to apply the impact of optional preferential voting in an election prediction. I thought there had been a relatively consistent expiry rate over the past few elections, but I found out I was mistaken - in that it has grown somewhat and was higher than I thought.

Here is another reference that is useful in considering preference decisions.

Although Labor's had 14 uninterrupted years of government in Queensland, it seems much longer - 20 of the past 22 years - because the Borbidge Government was just one term and came in after the Mundingburra by-election, rather than straight after the general election. Labor would have been better off if the LNP had managed to just pull off a win last election (the margin was so close, it's not unfeasible). The same probably goes for NSW. There really is a time when a government been in for long enough and winning an extra term can take it from being disliked to hated (same can probably be said for Labor's federal win in 1993).

Meanwhile, the Coalition may have been fortunate to lose in 2007 (remember, it was the smallest first-term majority in Australia, and reduced to a minority government at the following election) and Labor probably fortunate to lose by a small margin in Victoria in 2010.

Losing by a small margin earlier probably saves you from losing by a big margin later, and taking longer to rebuild. That's just my opinion, anyway, and there are probably examples to prove why I'm wrong.

[redcommander]

Couldn't the ALP do worse here than in NSW? I believe I saw that a 60-40 poll result could leave them with around 12 seats.

[Smid]

Couldn't the ALP do worse here than in NSW? I believe I saw that a 60-40 poll result could leave them with around 12 seats.

Anything's possible, but I really believe that won't be the case. The betting market numbers I uploaded the other day (and I'm not going to go back and recheck, except maybe a couple of the close seats), has Labor favoured in 18 seats, independents favoured in three seats, Katter's Party favoured in two seats and the LNP ahead in all others bar one (which is a Labor-LNP tie). Of course, betting markets can get it wrong, too, but that's still six seats higher than the poll figure on universal swing you quote. Did your result come from Antony Green's Electoral Calculator?

Labor-LNP tie (1):
Mulgrave

Katter's Party (2):
Mount Isa and Dalrymple (note - not Beaudesert, where the leader of Katter's Party was elected as an LNP MP last election, before quitting the party). Both are in the area represented federally by Katter.

Independent (3):
Gladstone, Nicklin and Maryborough

Labor (18):
Thuringowa, Mackay, Rockhampton, Morayfield, Sandgate, Nudgee, Lytton, South Brisbane, Yeerongpilly, Sunnybank, Woodridge, Waterford, Logan, Algester, Inala, Bundamba, Ipswich and Ipswich West.

LNP (66):
Cook, Barron River, Cairns, Hinchinbrook, Townsville, Mundingburra, Burdekin, Whitsunday, Mirani, Keppel, Gregory, Burnett, Bundaberg, Callide, Hervey Bay, Warrego, Nanango, Condamine, Southern Downs, Gympie, Noosa, Maroochydore, Buderim, Kawana, Caloundra, Glass House, Pumicestone, Murrumba, Redcliffe, Kallangur, Pine Rivers, Aspley, Everton, Ferny Grove, Stafford, Clayfield, Brisbane Central, Ashgrove, Mount Coot-tha, Indooroopilly, Moggill, Mount Ommaney, Toowoomba North, Toowoomba South, Lockyer, Beaudesert, Bulimba, Greenslopes, Chatsworth, Cleveland, Capalaba, Redlands, Mansfield, Stretton, Springwood, Coomera, Albert, Gaven, Mudgeeraba, Broadwater, Southport, Surfers Paradise, Mermaid Beach, Burleigh and Currumbin.

I'm happy to map this (I've done a rough party in front one already) but I'd like some advice as to what constitutes safe/lean/slight in the dollar terms.

Actually, Algester has changed – Centrebet still has Labor the favourites, while Sportsbet has the LNP favourite. A few others, too… Hmmm… actually, quite a few others have changed. I’ll update my lists if I get time in the next couple of days, but no guarantees.

[Smid]

It seems that Labor's intensely grubby and personally negative campaign against Campbell Newman has backfired, with a Galaxy Poll in today's Sunday Mail showing that the Premier's approvals have crashed seven points in the past month to just 36%. Her disapprovals have jumped nine points to 61%. The 2PP would be 60-40 if the election replicated the poll. Labor's primary vote is 30%, while the LNP primary vote is just below 50%.

Has he pulled ahead in his own constituency yet?

He was ahead, then two polls last week put him behind, but a Newspoll published on Friday had him back ahead at 52-48 with a primary vote of 49 compared to Labor's 44. Antony Green updated his blog post on the topic to reflect that (first paragraph).

I don't tend to quote myself, but in this instance there has been a bit of an update (Antony Green has updated his blog above), and The Courier Mail says Campbell's pulled ahead in the latest Reachtel poll (which was one of the ones that previously had him behind, at 54-46 2PP.

Reachtel has published its numbers on it's website. I found question 3 particularly relevant, and as voters in Ashgrove consider their selection, I think they're reaching the same conclusion as that question asks, and this is part of what has driven the increase in Campbell's numbers since the last poll. If you don't want to click the link, the question asked:

Assuming the LNP wins Government on Saturday, would you prefer an LNP government with or without Campbell Newman as leader?

With - 57.2%
Without - 42.8%

The primary vote figures for Reachtel were:

Sample Size = 931 voters

Campbell Newman, LNP - 49.0%
Kate Jones, ALP - 40.8%
Dr Sandra Bayley, GRN - 7.5%
Noramn Wicks, KAP - 1.8%
Trevor Jones, Ind - 0.5%
Ian Nelson, ONP - 0.4%

2PP, based on last election distribution of preferences - 54.2% vs 45.8% to the LNP.

EDIT:

The Courier Mail is reporting that a Galaxy poll is also just out (sample size = 800), with similar results to the Reachtel poll. It notes that while Reachtel is automated, Galaxy is speaks with voters and weights its sample demographically (that bit sounds like it's been taken straight from the Galaxy press release...). Galaxy puts Campbell at 52% primary vote to Labor's 38%. The 2PP ends up at 55-45.

[Smid]

There is more polling on the Reachtel website, I might jot down their primary vote stats here, while I'm at it. It's all automated polling, and it's constituency polling, so all the risks inherent in that... so apply salt to taste. They had some earlier polls of Ferny Grove, South Brisbane, Lytton, Ipswich and Bundamba, but they were all before the close of nominations and probably not especially useful. The Lytton poll had the LNP with a comfortable lead in primary vote, which I would find very surprising, and most people expressing a primary vote preference for the LNP were doing so "to change the government" which suggests that the support there is not likely to erode, but it was without candidates being declared and before the campaign even started, so things may have changed in the interim.

Hinchinbrook and Beaudesert = 9 March

Hinchinbrook
Sample = 417
Andrew Cripps, LNP - 43.0%
Jeff Knuth, KAP - 32.7%
Tony McGuire, ALP - 17.0%
Undecided - 3.6%
Pamela Monaghan, GRN - 3.4%
Desmond Connors, IND - 0.3%

Beaudesert
Sample = 444
Jon Krause, LNP - 38.1%
Aidan McLindon, KAP - 36.8%
Brett McCreadie, ALP - 10.4%
Undecided - 9.0%
Andy Grodecki, GRN - 4.7%
Jim Savage, ONP - 0.7%
Walter Abrahamson, FFP - 0.3%

EDIT: On the other hand, the Lytton results would probably lead to a 2PP not dissimilar to the Mayoral result in Wynnum-Manly last time Campbell Newman was elected. The ward and the electorate have a fair degree of overlap, but Labor ran a pretty lacklustre campaign in the city council election because the result was pretty much a foregone conclusion, whereas this time they got down in the dirt and flung mud constantly.

[Smid]

One day left and the Courier Mail has published the cross-tabs from Galaxy's polling. The polling figures are broken down into three regions - Brisbane, Gold & Sunshine Coasts, Other, and into Male/Female, and also into age brackets: 18-24, 25-34, 35-49, 50+

This gives a total of 24 different sets of polling figures, which have been tracked across three polls - March 2012, February 2012, March 2009.

There are a couple of limitations - it would be nice if they could provide a "total" figure alongside the male/female and age sections to give a regional poll, similar to the statewide polling data they release, and it would be helpful to find out how certain seats are categorised, generally... Ipswich, for example (and Ipswich West and Bundamba) are not in the Brisbane City Council area, but I would not be horrified to learn that they were included in the Brisbane figure... indeed, that's probably where they fit best - they're certainly not coastal, and including them in the regional figures would be incorrect, I think. Where does Beaudesert fit? I wouldn't say Brisbane, but whether it's slotted in with the coastal seats as sort of coastal hinterland, or whether it's rural and regional... I just don't know... Logan is similar to Ipswich. I'm sure Ipswich and Logan and Waterford would be counted with Brisbane, but I'd just like to know for certain.

[You kip if you want to...]

Oh, and Galaxy are reporting 55-45 2PP in Ashgrove to Premier-elect Newman.

[Smid]

So changes to those betting odds I quoted the other day... I won't give exact dollar figures for every electorate, just where the favourite has changed. I think that's all of them.

In Algester, the LNP is quoted from $1.59 to $1.95 and Labor from $1.78 to $2 ($1.59 vs $2 on one site, and $1.78 vs $1.95 on the other site).

In Ipswich West, the LNP is now favourite (previously Labor was favoured) at $1.70 vs $1.85.

In Mulgrave, the LNP is now favourite (previously tied) at $1.65 vs $2.65.

In Morayfield, the LNP and Labor are now tied at $1.80 (previously Labor was favoured).

In Thuringowa, the LNP is now favourite (previously Labor was favoured) at $1.53 vs $2.25.

[redcommander]

I think the ALP needs to hurry up and call a general election to get Gillard out of office. There's going to be no federal bench of candidates for office if the party keeps losing in bloodbaths in state elections.

[Sibboleth]

That's really not how things work there.

[redcommander]

That's really not how things work there.

Then how does it work?

[You kip if you want to...]

That's really not how things work there.

Then how does it work?

The opposition calls a vote of no confidence when they gain the support of the independents who hold the balance of power in parliament. Or Gillard goes to see in the Governor General, around the time her mandate's about to come to a natural end in 2013, and asks for a General Election.

[redcommander]

That's really not how things work there.

Then how does it work?

The opposition calls a vote of no confidence when they gain the support of the independents who hold the balance of power in parliament. Or Gillard goes to see in the Governor General, around the time her mandate's about to come to a natural end in 2013, and asks for a General Election.

Oh I knew that, sorry if I misspoke. There's no chance for the government calling an early election then? I was talking about there being no federal bench of candidates left if the ALP continues to have wipeouts in state elections.

[Smid]

The Senate has fixed terms. To keep half Senate elections coinciding with House elections, there's only a window of a year or so. Antony Green has a good piece about it, but I don't remember the link. I think I've mentioned it before, so if you search comments I've made previously on this board or the International General Discussion board, you'll probably find it. It's not in the Prime Minister's interest to have an early election called.

[Χahar]

I think the ALP needs to hurry up and call a general election to get Gillard out of office. There's going to be no federal bench of candidates for office if the party keeps losing in bloodbaths in state elections.

The notion of candidates for federal office beginning by holding state office is a very American thing. While the situation in Australia isn't quite like Canada (where moving from provincial to federal office is very rare), it's not particularly common for MPs to have served in state parliaments beforehand.

[redcommander]

I think the ALP needs to hurry up and call a general election to get Gillard out of office. There's going to be no federal bench of candidates for office if the party keeps losing in bloodbaths in state elections.

The notion of candidates for federal office beginning by holding state office is a very American thing. While the situation in Australia isn't quite like Canada (where moving from provincial to federal office is very rare), it's not particularly common for MPs to have served in state parliaments beforehand.

Thanks for the info. I wasn't sure.

[redcommander]

When does live coverage of the results start?

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Looks like it should start in a couple of hours on ABC Brisbane radio - http://www.abc.net.au/brisbane/

[redcommander]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/abcnews24/

The online stream is up.

[Smid]

And the regional block is removed:

ABC News Online will have the election results fed directly into the ABC News website. As well as providing the latest news, information and analysis of the election, with seat-by-seat results, the ABC News 24 coverage will be streamed live at abc.net.au/news and the geo-block will be removed, for people overseas.

Polls close at 6 (Queensland time, which is not on daylight savings) so that's hake an hour away. Early results will be in an hour to hour and a half away.

[redcommander]

And the regional block is removed:

ABC News Online will have the election results fed directly into the ABC News website. As well as providing the latest news, information and analysis of the election, with seat-by-seat results, the ABC News 24 coverage will be streamed live at abc.net.au/news and the geo-block will be removed, for people overseas.

Polls close at 6 (Queensland time, which is not on daylight savings) so that's hake an hour away. Early results will be in an hour to hour and a half away.

Smid do you live in Queensland btw?

[redcommander]

Good God this could be worse for the ALP then polls indicated. Channel Nine has their exit poll showing a 63-37 margin in favor of the LNP.