Queensland, Australia 2012

[Smid]

I was Brisbane born and raised (southside). Met a girl and moved to Melbourne five years ago. My parents are in the Stretton electorate. The LNP candidate is apparently the mother of a classmate of mine or my brother in primary school, the Labor candidate was a uni buddy and drinking mate and the independent was formerly Labor's campaign manager out that way in elections gone by, so I knew him pretty well, too.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Must be really bad for the ALP when the reporter begins the broadcast with "Lets not beat around the bush" and declares the ALP almost dead.

[redcommander]

10% in, and Bligh is losing her seat on second preferences!!!!!!!!!!

[Smid]

Still early. Depends what booths are in and may not mean much. Her seat has experienced much development and gentrification over the past decade/fifteen years. If those booths report early, it could distort the figures. Other areas are likely to go more for the Greens, but will be balanced by booths with a stronger Liberal presence. She tends to do okay with Greens voters, however, from what I've heard, so if they've deserted her, I guess she could be in trouble. Have to wait and see if the trend holds.

[Secretary Polnut]

I say this with total objectivity - this win is ridiculously disproportionate.

The LNP don't deserve a majority this big ... full stop.

[crypto-fascist superhero]

Wow - I don't even know when the last time there was a swing like this in a US state legislature.

Edit:  New Hampshire 2010, which I should've remembered.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

This is a lot like British Columbia '01 when the BC Liberals knocked out the NDP

[Smid]

I say this with total objectivity - this win is ridiculously disproportionate.

The LNP don't deserve a majority this big ... full stop.

About as disproportionate as the 2001 election, when Labor won a similar majority in an election triggered by a half dozen Labor MPs, including the Deputy Premier, resigning following allegations of electoral fraud. Given the circumstances of that election, this result is substantially better, and I say that with total objectivity.

[redcommander]

ALP is predicted to lose it's official party status.

[Sibboleth]

Considerably worse than NSW which... on one level makes sense, I suppose. On another...

Anyways, currently 78/7/2/2

Edit: managed to lose Ipswich, which is...

[Smid]

Election night, incomplete results:

[Secretary Polnut]

I say this with total objectivity - this win is ridiculously disproportionate.

The LNP don't deserve a majority this big ... full stop.

About as disproportionate as the 2001 election, when Labor won a similar majority in an election triggered by a half dozen Labor MPs, including the Deputy Premier, resigning following allegations of electoral fraud. Given the circumstances of that election, this result is substantially better, and I say that with total objectivity.

The thing is, I completely agree that majorities of these sizes are ridiculous, considering the electorate of QLD... both 2001 and 2012 are nothing beyond stupid.

And it's made me double sure that I cannot possibly consider joining the Liberal Party in good conscience... so... if I want to be involved, I have no choice.

[You kip if you want to...]

:O Just checked the results. I knew it'd be bad, but this is something else. Do we have a rough idea of the 2PP yet?

[RogueBeaver]

Did Bligh lose her seat?

[You kip if you want to...]

Did Bligh lose her seat?

No, ABC's called it for her and it's currently at 55-45.

[NRS11]

Watched a little bit of the coverage online at 1 AM Pacific Time.... wasn't willing to stay up until 4:00 AM to see the results. Dang time changes...

I'm hoping the entire Sky News coverage will be put up on Youtube again like it has for all the past elections. 

[Frodo]

What on earth did the Labor Party do to deserve this wipeout in Queensland? 

[Secretary Polnut]

What on earth did the Labor Party do to deserve this wipeout in Queensland? 

That's the thing... they might have deserved to lose... but this was not a NSW-level of incompetence.

Anyway, if you listen to what the LNP policies are... they're pretty much the same as the ALP... if only slightly tweaked... so I think this was an electorate that just didn't want to listen to the ALP any more.

I think the people of Queensland will realise creating a generation-long one-party state, yet again, is a big mistake.

[Frodo]

What on earth did the Labor Party do to deserve this wipeout in Queensland? 

That's the thing... they might have deserved to lose... but this was not a NSW-level of incompetence.

Anyway, if you listen to what the LNP policies are... they're pretty much the same as the ALP... if only slightly tweaked... so I think this was an electorate that just didn't want to listen to the ALP any more.

I think the people of Queensland will realise creating a generation-long one-party state, yet again, is a big mistake.

So, basically, they want the same policies as the previous government -just with different faces and from a different party. 

That's one shallow electorate you have there.... 

[Secretary Polnut]

What on earth did the Labor Party do to deserve this wipeout in Queensland? 

That's the thing... they might have deserved to lose... but this was not a NSW-level of incompetence.

Anyway, if you listen to what the LNP policies are... they're pretty much the same as the ALP... if only slightly tweaked... so I think this was an electorate that just didn't want to listen to the ALP any more.

I think the people of Queensland will realise creating a generation-long one-party state, yet again, is a big mistake.

So, basically, they want the same policies as the previous government -just with different faces and from a different party. 

That's one shallow electorate you have there.... 

I agree...

The ALP also went extremely negative on Campbell Newman... and my personal view of negative personal attacks, especially when corruption is alleged, is that you need incontrovertible evidence... and the ALP didn't, which I think probably turned a 7% swing two weeks ago, into a 16% one. 

[RogueBeaver]

OK, so how much pantsh**tting's going on for the federal ALP ATM?

[Smid]

Peter Beattie was talking about Labor's internal tracking poll (for our American friends, internal polls in Australia are rarely leaked before the election, are quite accurate and are used for strategically targetting seats). He said Labor started the campaign at minus 16, went negative and clawed it back to minus 10 in the first week of the campaign, then the Premier admitted there was no evidence of corruption, Labor referred it to the CMC who then cleared him, and the polls blew back out to minus 17, before finally coming back in to minus 15 in the final week (that 2% movement was probably due to that appeal of "don't give them too many seats").

Super-majorities aren't good, it is important in a healthy democracy for there to be a strong opposition to hold the government to account and not require so long to rebuild and form a viable alternative government. It took the Coalition three election losses after 2001 to rebuild, and Denis Aitkin said this morning that in Labor's last two wipeouts, it took fifteen years to rebuild and they had excellent leaders in both cases, much better than the alternatives this time.

[You kip if you want to...]

Is Anna Bligh staying on as Leader of the Opposition due to a lack or alternatives in the caucus?

[Secretary Polnut]

OK, so how much pantsh**tting's going on for the federal ALP ATM?

A lot... but the fact remains that this really is a state result, based on state issues, despite what Abbott will try to trumpet on about today.

If the ALP is sensible, they'll realise that this is a HUGE opportunity ... but this government? Sadly, I doubt it.

[Smid]

Exit polls showed 44% of voters saying the carbon tax influenced their vote.