Queensland, Australia 2012

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Predicting QLD and NSW are always tough asks because of the option preferential...

I think the swing will be in the margin of 5-7%, but it will not be uniform.

Looking over seats and numbers, I'm looking at maybe the ALP losing between 18 and 25 seats.

14 years is  VERY long time for one party to be in power. I personally don't think Bligh is a bad premier, much like Kenneally, she was lumped with a useless front-bench.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I say this with total objectivity - this win is ridiculously disproportionate.

The LNP don't deserve a majority this big ... full stop.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I say this with total objectivity - this win is ridiculously disproportionate.

The LNP don't deserve a majority this big ... full stop.

About as disproportionate as the 2001 election, when Labor won a similar majority in an election triggered by a half dozen Labor MPs, including the Deputy Premier, resigning following allegations of electoral fraud. Given the circumstances of that election, this result is substantially better, and I say that with total objectivity.

The thing is, I completely agree that majorities of these sizes are ridiculous, considering the electorate of QLD... both 2001 and 2012 are nothing beyond stupid.

And it's made me double sure that I cannot possibly consider joining the Liberal Party in good conscience... so... if I want to be involved, I have no choice.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

What on earth did the Labor Party do to deserve this wipeout in Queensland? 

That's the thing... they might have deserved to lose... but this was not a NSW-level of incompetence.

Anyway, if you listen to what the LNP policies are... they're pretty much the same as the ALP... if only slightly tweaked... so I think this was an electorate that just didn't want to listen to the ALP any more.

I think the people of Queensland will realise creating a generation-long one-party state, yet again, is a big mistake.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

What on earth did the Labor Party do to deserve this wipeout in Queensland? 

That's the thing... they might have deserved to lose... but this was not a NSW-level of incompetence.

Anyway, if you listen to what the LNP policies are... they're pretty much the same as the ALP... if only slightly tweaked... so I think this was an electorate that just didn't want to listen to the ALP any more.

I think the people of Queensland will realise creating a generation-long one-party state, yet again, is a big mistake.

So, basically, they want the same policies as the previous government -just with different faces and from a different party. 

That's one shallow electorate you have there.... 

I agree...

The ALP also went extremely negative on Campbell Newman... and my personal view of negative personal attacks, especially when corruption is alleged, is that you need incontrovertible evidence... and the ALP didn't, which I think probably turned a 7% swing two weeks ago, into a 16% one. 

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

OK, so how much pantsh**tting's going on for the federal ALP ATM?

A lot... but the fact remains that this really is a state result, based on state issues, despite what Abbott will try to trumpet on about today.

If the ALP is sensible, they'll realise that this is a HUGE opportunity ... but this government? Sadly, I doubt it.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Exit polls showed 44% of voters saying the carbon tax influenced their vote.

They never dig deep in questions like that...

I'd like to know to what extent the carbon tax influenced their vote... because if I were asked that question, as someone who supports pricing carbon, I suppose the carbon tax would have influenced my vote... but it wouldn't have been the primary factor.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Should not be forgotten that the ALP have been governing Queensland for all but two of the past twenty three years.

I think this is the core of the "they just stopped listening" argument...and why the result was such a ridiculous blow-out. It was a visceral electoral reaction...