Queensland, Australia 2012

[Smid]

A state election will be held this year for Queensland. Antony Green notes possible dates on his blog, stating that the last election was held in March 2009 (here is our thread on that election).

Anyway, as Antony Green points out, the last election was held in March 2009, so the Parliament reaches full term in March. The latest possible date for an election would be in June, so we're looking at an election to be held in the first half of this year. There will be municipal elections held on the last Saturday of March (because municipal government is constituted by an Act of Parliament, rather than constitutional recognition, all council elections across the state are held on the same day and set as a fixed date, with four year terms... to be precise, the final Saturday of March, every four years, starting in 2000).

The Premier is unlikely to want to hold an election conflicting with the council ones (especially as a fair swag of seats are located in the Brisbane City Council area, with the former Lord Mayor running leader of the LNP, and the Brisbane City Council being partisan, unlike most other councils). Labor is in opposition in the Council, with quite a few seats to try to claw back. Labor is unpopular at a state level and I doubt they'd want that rubbing off in the Brisbane City Council, where they'll be trying to pick up wards. Additionally, a state election will make it difficult for council Labor to get media and make it harder to mount a campaign, so I think this makes it even less likely that these elections will be close together.

I therefore think that the election will be held in February, probably mid-February, to give a chance for Labor to run a six week campaign for council. This is precisely what happened in 2004, when the state election was called for mid-Feb and the municipal elections were held at the end of March.

I have maps in the galleries, I'll post them in here some time today.

[Smid]

I hear from my friends in Queensland the ALP will have a hard time winning this one.

Whereabouts are your friends from? I grew up on the south side of Brisbane

Polls are suggesting Labor will certainly struggle at the election, although the polls have had the LNP in front before, and yet the conservative parties have managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in plenty of times previously.

Since 1989, the Labor party has only lost one election (1995 - following a by-election held in the seat of Mundingburra, after the Court of Disputed Returns overturned the original election result). Even following the 1995 election, the then Coalition (since then, merged into a single party) governed in minority with the support of an independent.

Another Antony Green blog post mentions the latest Newspoll (50% LNP, 27% Labor, resulting in an estimated 61%-39% 2PP). He goes further, however, translating the federal election 2PP results to state electorates. Exceptional work, really (although nothing more than you'd expect from him). Additionally, he considers some of the marginals and discusses the impact optional preferential voting might have on those results. There are a few important things to note - he isn't making a projection, he's looking at historic results and showing them in a different manner to how they may have previously been considered - it's useful for analysis, but not a prediction. Indeed, he emphasises that over the past two decades, federal election results have not provided an accurate guide to state election results.

It's also important to recognise that these results are based on the Two Party Preferred results, not the Two Candidate Preferred results. This is important for a couple of reasons - it doesn't factor in that some of the North-Western Booths are represented by the independent Bob Katter federally. Katter has since formed his own party, which will be contesting the Queensland state election. If the party performs as well in the state seats in the federal electorate of Kennedy as it did at the federal election, some of those seats (and others, not in the federal electorate of Kennedy) may be picked up by those candidates instead of LNP candidates.

Additionally, some of these seats are held at the state level by independents, and two are held by members elected last election as LNP candidates, but who have subsequently switched over to Katter's party. The two held by Katter's Party are Dalrymple and Beaudesert. Beaudesert is the large roundish one to the south of Logan... if you go to the Southern Inset and go from east to west along the border, the southernmost seats are Currumbin, Mudgeeraba and then Beaudesert.Dalrymple is the elongated seat running North-South in northern Queensland, inland a little... it's the hinterlands, inland from Townsville, is probably the best way to describe it. My descriptions aren't particularly good. Here is the Electoral Commission website with maps of each electorate, and some region-wide maps.

Anyway, here are the 2010 federal results by state electorate, as calculated by Antony Green. A bigger version is in the Gallery:

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Here are previous maps, which are all larger in the Gallery:

2009 Queensland Two Candidate Preferred Results by State Electoral District




2006 Queensland Two Candidate Preferred Results by State Electoral District
Important to realise that these are NOTIONAL results, as there was a redistribution between the 2006 and 2009 elections




2008 Brisbane City Council - Ward Elections
These are the 2PP margins for Brisbane City Council ward councillors - add 50% on for the 2PP result... it's an early map of mine, I'm sorry.




2008 Brisbane City Council - Lord Mayor by Ward
The Brisbane Lord Mayor is elected at-large across the city, however this map shows the 2PP result for the Lord Mayor in each ward. The LNP leader at the current state election was the Lord Mayor returned at this city council election. He was obviously popular in all parts of the city, however not all of his candidates were carried along with him (obviously). Note that he quite comfortably won wards in the area where he is now running as a candidate.

[Smid]

So apparently the election was announced today for 24 March.

On the phone and tomorrow's a public holiday so won't be near a computer for a couple of days, so can't post a link here. Perhaps someone could find a good article from The Australian or The Courier Mail?

Edit: Found a link to Antony Green's site.

[Smid]

Bligh will get hammered, though not as bad as Kenneally did. End of story.

I'm inclined to agree with your assessment.

[Smid]

Antony Green has a fantastic post about the Gold Coast. Well worth a look.

[Smid]

Newspoll
47 (+1)
30 (-1)
9 (-1)

58 (+2)
42 (-2)

I still expect the gap to close, those approval numbers simply don't add up to a result anything like 58-42. I guess it shows how toxic the ALP brand is right now.

Newspoll calculates 2PP based mathematically on preference flows at the last election and is quite accurate at giving a 2PP result based on any set of primary figures. Antony Green had a good post about it last week on his blog (links already provided to blog, article is about Reachtel polling). In short, Queensland's optional preferential system results in larger 2PP margins for the primary vote leader than would be the case under compulsory preferential voting. This is because historically, in both Queensland and New South Wales, half the voters or thereabouts just vote 1. This is equally the case with minor party voters whose preferences are most likely to be distributed. Basically, those primary vote figures quoted by Newspoll are likely to yield those 2PP results, Newspoll doesn't force people to pick from the two major parties in their polling, just their primary vote, and then mathematically estimate a distribution of preferences.

[Smid]

Antony Green has uploaded a brilliant political history of the Queensland Parliament timeline to his blog. Using the slider at the bottom, you can change the date and see how the composition of the Parliament has changed over time. I strongly recommend taking a look if you're interested in Queensland politics.

[Smid]

I've seen photos of Labor's election signs up there... candidates and MPs are completely leaving the party name and logo off their signs - just putting their own name and the electorate name - no mention whatsoever of "Labor"

[Smid]

I took a look at a website that collates odds from different betting websites (was going to post the link, but I suspect it may be against the TOS to do so). Anyway, there were four websites willing to take bets on party to win the Queensland election, with all four giving tightest odds for the LNP (although a couple of the sites referred to them as "Coalition"). These odds ranged from $1.06 to $1.50. At least one website offered odds on every single electorate, with two others offering odds on some electorates. In each case, all three betting websites backed the same favourite (it could be argued they disagreed in the case of Mt Isa, but it's really the way it's presented... one website didn't list Katter's Party and had "Any Other" as the favourite, whereas the other site listed Katter's Party as the favourite and didn't offer odds on "Any Other"). I think they've overstated the LNP's electoral odds on the per seat basis, but here are the figures (putting incumbent party in brackets after):

Albert:
LNP $1.50 vs ALP $2.10 (ALP 6.5%)

Algester:
ALP $1.60 - $1.80 vs LNP $1.95 vs Others $11 - $51 (ALP 9.2%)

Ashgrove:
LNP $1.45 - $1.50 vs ALP $2.20 - $2.50 vs Others $51 (ALP 7.1%)

Aspley:
LNP $1.01 - $1.03 vs ALP $10 vs Others $34 - $51 (LNP 4.5%)

Barron River:
LNP $1.07 - $1.18 vs ALP $4.75 - $7 vs Greens $26 vs Others $21 - $51 (ALP 2.3%)

Beudesert:
LNP $1.40 - $1.60 vs Katter $1.98 - $2.60 vs ALP $4.75 - $7 vs Others $51 - $61
(elected LNP, but crossed floor to join Katter's Party, Hanson ran there but lost 8.3%)

Brisbane Central:
LNP $1.40 - $1.48 vs ALP $2.60 - $2.75 vs Greens $10 - $13 vs Ind $26 vs Others $51 (ALP 6.0%)

Broadwater:
LNP $1.25 - $1.43 vs ALP $4.50 - $4.65 vs Others $4.25 - $7.00 (ALP 2.0%)

Buderim:
LNP $1.01 vs ALP $15 vs Others $15 (LNP 14.3%)

Bulimba:
LNP $1.48 - $1.60 vs ALP $1.95 - $2.50 vs Greens $13 vs Others $51 (ALP 7.8%)

Bundaberg:
LNP $1.01 - $1.02 vs ALP $10 - $11 vs Others $16.75 - $41 (LNP 6.0%)

Bundamba:
ALP $1.15 - $1.22 vs LNP $3.85 - $3.90 vs Katter $17 vs Others $51 (ALP 21.2%)

Burdekin:
LNP $1.06 vs ALP $8.50 vs Others $11.25 (LNP 3.1%)

Burleigh:
LNP $1.30 vs ALP $2.75 vs Others $51 (ALP 4.9%)

Burnett:
LNP $1.75 vs Ind $1.95 vs ALP $31 vs Others $31
(elected LNP, but became Independent 11.1%)

Cairns:
LNP $1.29 vs ALP $3.50 vs Katter $12.40 vs Others $51 (ALP 4.2%)

Callide:
LNP $1.01 vs Others $7.20 vs ALP $51 (LNP 19.4%)

Caloundra:
LNP $1.01 vs ALP $10 vs Greens $21 (LNP 6.2%)

Capalaba:
LNP $1.67 vs ALP $1.85 vs Others $51 (ALP 9.7%)

Chatsworth:
LNP $1.03 - $1.05 vs ALP $6 - $9.40 Others $31 - $41 (ALP 0.1%)

Clayfield:
LNP $1.01 vs ALP $10 vs Others $51 (LNP 5.8%)

Cleveland:
LNP $1.01 vs ALP $7.50 vs Others $51 (LNP 0.3%)

Condamine:
LNP $1.01 vs Others $8.50 vs ALP $26 (LNP 19.2%)

Cook:
LNP $1.18 vs ALP $4.75 vs Katter $12.40 vs Others $51 (ALP 2.2%)

Coomera:
LNP $1.02 vs ALP $8 vs Others $23 (LNP 1.9%)

Currumbin:
LNP $1.01 vs ALP $10 vs Others $17 (LNP 6.9%)

Dalrymple:
Katter $1.38 vs LNP $3.88 vs ALP $17 vs Others $41 - $51
(elected LNP, but crossed the floor to join Katter's Party 14.4%, defeated only remaining One Nation MP)

Everton:
LNP $1.06 - $1.10 vs ALP $4.75 - $7.50 vs Others $29 - $31 (ALP 1.4%)

Ferny Grove:
LNP $1.14 - $1.25 vs ALP $2.95 - $5 vs Greens $51 (ALP 4.5%)

Gaven:
LNP $1.02 vs ALP $8 vs Others $23 (LNP 0.7%)

Gladstone:
Ind $1.06 vs ALP $6 vs LNP $51 vs Others $51 (Ind 6.1% vs ALP)

Glass House:
LNP $1.01 vs ALP $18 vs Greens $18 (LNP 5.8%)

Greenslopes:
LNP $1.55 vs ALP $2 vs Greens $51 (ALP 6.9%)

Gregory:
LNP $1.01 vs Others $8.50 vs ALP $26 (LNP 14.3%)

Gympie:
LNP $1.01 vs Others $8 vs ALP $31 (LNP 27.2%)

Hervey Bay:
LNP $1.01 vs ALP $10 vs Others $17 (LNP 6.5%)

Hinchinbrook:
LNP $1.01 vs Others $8.50 vs ALP $26 (LNP 14.7%)

Inala:
ALP $1.02 vs LNP $7 vs Others $34 (ALP 21.5%)

Indooroopilly:
LNP $1.01 vs Greens $10 vs ALP $17 vs Others $51 (LNP 5.9%)

Ipswich:
ALP $1.15 vs LNP $4.20 vs Others $26 (ALP 16.7%)

Ipswich West:
ALP $1.70 vs LNP $1.85 vs Others $51 (ALP 9.6%)

Kallangur:
LNP $1.22 - $1.23 vs ALP $3.50 - $3.80 vs Others $26 (ALP 4.6%)

Kawana:
LNP $1.01 vs ALP $10 vs Others $17 (LNP 6.9%)

Keppel:
LNP $1.60 vs ALP $1.95 vs Others $51 (ALP 7.6%)

Lockyer:
LNP $1.01 vs ALP $10 vs Others $17 (LNP 7.6%)

Logan:
ALP $1.14 vs LNP $4 vs Others $51 (ALP 13.9%)

Lytton:
ALP $1.50 vs LNP $2.20 vs Others $51 (ALP 12.2%)

Mackay:
ALP $1.06 vs LNP $6 vs Others $26 (ALP 16.7%)

Mansfield:
LNP $1.25 vs ALP $2.95 vs Others $51 (ALP 4.4%)

Maroochydore:
LNP $1.01 vs ALP $9 vs Others $26 (LNP 12.8%)

Maryborough:
Ind $1.06 vs LNP $6 vs ALP $51 vs Others $51 (Ind 16.8% vs LNP)

Mermaid Beach:
LNP $1.01 vs ALP $9 vs Others $26 (LNP 10.8%)

Mirani:
LNP $1.02 vs ALP $7.50 vs Others $34 (LNP 0.6%)

Moggill:
LNP $1.01 vs ALP $9 vs Others 26 (LNP 10.3%)

Morayfield:
ALP $1.64 vs LNP $1.88 vs Others $51 (ALP 9.1%)

Mount Coot-tha:
LNP $1.20 - $1.22 vs ALP $3.90 - $4.20 vs Greens $31 vs Others $31 vs Katter $81 (ALP 5.3%)

Mount Isa:
Katter $1.55/Other $1.65 vs LNP $2.40 - $2.85 vs ALP $4.85 - $6 (ALP 5.7%)

Mount Ommaney:
LNP $1.25 vs ALP $3 vs Others $51 (ALP 4.8%)

Mudgeeraba:
LNP $1.01 vs ALP $8 vs Others $51 (LNP 3.9%)

Mulgrave:
Tie LNP & ALP $2.05 vs Katter $6 vs Greens $51 (ALP 8.1%)

Mundingburra:
LNP $1.38 - $1.40 vs ALP $2.30 - $2.65 vs Other $34 - $51 (ALP 6.6%)

Murrumba:
LNP $1.56 vs ALP $2 vs Others $51 (ALP 7.2%)

Nanango:
LNP $1.45 vs Katter $2.25 vs ALP $51 vs Others $51 (retiring Ind 2.9% vs LNP)

Nicklin:
Ind $1.06 vs LNP $6 vs ALP $51 vs Others $51 (Ind 16.3% vs LNP)

Noosa:
LNP $1.01 vs ALP $26 vs Others $51 (LNP 20.0%)

Nudgee:
ALP $1.12 vs LNP $4.05 vs Others $51 (14.3%)

Pine Rivers:
LNP $1.16 - $1.25 vs ALP $3 - $4.70 vs Others $29 - $51 (ALP 4.6%)

Pumicestone:
LNP $1.30 vs ALP $2.75 vs Others $51 (ALP 5.0%)

Redcliffe:
LNP $1.37 vs ALP $2.50 vs Others $51 (ALP 5.6%)

Redlands:
LNP $1.01 vs ALP $7.50 vs Others $51 (LNP 0.1%)

Rockhampton:
ALP $1.05 vs LNP $6.50 vs Others $26 (ALP 17.9%)

Sandgate:
ALP $1.40 vs LNP $2.40 vs Others $51 (ALP 12.4%)

South Brisbane:
ALP $1.06 vs LNP $5.65 vs Greens $51 vs Others $51 (ALP 15.0%)

Southern Downs:
LNP $1.01 vs Others $8 vs ALP $31 (LNP 21.1%)

Southport:
LNP $1.23 vs ALP $3.35 vs Others $51 (ALP 3.5%)

Springwood:
LNP $1.07 - $1.25 vs ALP $3 - $7 vs Katter $21 vs Greens $29 vs Others $34 - $51 (ALP 4.1%)

Stafford:
LNP $1.56 vs ALP $2.05 vs Others $51 (ALP 7.3%)

Stretton:
LNP $1.40 - $1.50 vs ALP $2.50 - $2.90 vs Independent $11 vs Greens $26 vs Others $11
(ALP 9.5% - the Independent used to work for the retiring ALP MP but lost a publicly bitter Labor preselection)

Sunnybank:
ALP $1.60 vs LNP $1.95 vs Others $51 (ALP 10.8%)

Surfers Paradise:
LNP $1.01 vs ALP $51 vs Others $51 (LNP 16.5%)

Thuringowa:
ALP $1.70 vs LNP $1.80 vs Others $51 (ALP 8.5%)

Toowoomba North:
LNP $1.09 - $1.17 vs ALP $3.50 - $6.40 vs Others $41 - $51 (ALP 3.2%)

Toowoomba South:
LNP $1.01 vs ALP $9 vs Others $26 (LNP 8.2%)

Townsville:
LNP $1.25 vs ALP $3.20 vs Others $26 (ALP 4.0%)

Warrego:
LNP $1.07 vs Others $5 vs ALP $41 (LNP 24.3%)

Waterford:
ALP $1.06 vs LNP $6 vs Others $26 (ALP 16.5%)

Whitsunday:
LNP $1.16 - $1.17 vs ALP $4.25 - $4.50 vs Katter $17 - $21 vs Greens $51 vs Others $51 (ALP 3.2%)

Woodridge:
ALP $1.02 vs LNP $7 vs Others $34 (ALP 25.4%)

Yeerongpilly:
ALP $1.70 vs LNP $1.80 vs Others $51 (ALP 8.7%)

[Smid]

It seems that Labor's intensely grubby and personally negative campaign against Campbell Newman has backfired, with a Galaxy Poll in today's Sunday Mail showing that the Premier's approvals have crashed seven points in the past month to just 36%. Her disapprovals have jumped nine points to 61%. The 2PP would be 60-40 if the election replicated the poll. Labor's primary vote is 30%, while the LNP primary vote is just below 50%.

[Smid]

It seems that Labor's intensely grubby and personally negative campaign against Campbell Newman has backfired, with a Galaxy Poll in today's Sunday Mail showing that the Premier's approvals have crashed seven points in the past month to just 36%. Her disapprovals have jumped nine points to 61%. The 2PP would be 60-40 if the election replicated the poll. Labor's primary vote is 30%, while the LNP primary vote is just below 50%.

Has he pulled ahead in his own constituency yet?

He was ahead, then two polls last week put him behind, but a Newspoll published on Friday had him back ahead at 52-48 with a primary vote of 49 compared to Labor's 44. Antony Green updated his blog post on the topic to reflect that (first paragraph).

[Smid]

What happened? It looked like Bligh was stabilizing in the polls recently?

It had been a while since the last statewide poll, there were a couple of Ashgrove-specific polls of late, those may be the polls you remember? I don't think there were any statewide polls showing Labor closing the gap in a relevant manner.

[Smid]

It's tough to apply the impact of optional preferential voting in an election prediction. I thought there had been a relatively consistent expiry rate over the past few elections, but I found out I was mistaken - in that it has grown somewhat and was higher than I thought.

Here is another reference that is useful in considering preference decisions.

Although Labor's had 14 uninterrupted years of government in Queensland, it seems much longer - 20 of the past 22 years - because the Borbidge Government was just one term and came in after the Mundingburra by-election, rather than straight after the general election. Labor would have been better off if the LNP had managed to just pull off a win last election (the margin was so close, it's not unfeasible). The same probably goes for NSW. There really is a time when a government been in for long enough and winning an extra term can take it from being disliked to hated (same can probably be said for Labor's federal win in 1993).

Meanwhile, the Coalition may have been fortunate to lose in 2007 (remember, it was the smallest first-term majority in Australia, and reduced to a minority government at the following election) and Labor probably fortunate to lose by a small margin in Victoria in 2010.

Losing by a small margin earlier probably saves you from losing by a big margin later, and taking longer to rebuild. That's just my opinion, anyway, and there are probably examples to prove why I'm wrong.

[Smid]

Couldn't the ALP do worse here than in NSW? I believe I saw that a 60-40 poll result could leave them with around 12 seats.

Anything's possible, but I really believe that won't be the case. The betting market numbers I uploaded the other day (and I'm not going to go back and recheck, except maybe a couple of the close seats), has Labor favoured in 18 seats, independents favoured in three seats, Katter's Party favoured in two seats and the LNP ahead in all others bar one (which is a Labor-LNP tie). Of course, betting markets can get it wrong, too, but that's still six seats higher than the poll figure on universal swing you quote. Did your result come from Antony Green's Electoral Calculator?

Labor-LNP tie (1):
Mulgrave

Katter's Party (2):
Mount Isa and Dalrymple (note - not Beaudesert, where the leader of Katter's Party was elected as an LNP MP last election, before quitting the party). Both are in the area represented federally by Katter.

Independent (3):
Gladstone, Nicklin and Maryborough

Labor (18):
Thuringowa, Mackay, Rockhampton, Morayfield, Sandgate, Nudgee, Lytton, South Brisbane, Yeerongpilly, Sunnybank, Woodridge, Waterford, Logan, Algester, Inala, Bundamba, Ipswich and Ipswich West.

LNP (66):
Cook, Barron River, Cairns, Hinchinbrook, Townsville, Mundingburra, Burdekin, Whitsunday, Mirani, Keppel, Gregory, Burnett, Bundaberg, Callide, Hervey Bay, Warrego, Nanango, Condamine, Southern Downs, Gympie, Noosa, Maroochydore, Buderim, Kawana, Caloundra, Glass House, Pumicestone, Murrumba, Redcliffe, Kallangur, Pine Rivers, Aspley, Everton, Ferny Grove, Stafford, Clayfield, Brisbane Central, Ashgrove, Mount Coot-tha, Indooroopilly, Moggill, Mount Ommaney, Toowoomba North, Toowoomba South, Lockyer, Beaudesert, Bulimba, Greenslopes, Chatsworth, Cleveland, Capalaba, Redlands, Mansfield, Stretton, Springwood, Coomera, Albert, Gaven, Mudgeeraba, Broadwater, Southport, Surfers Paradise, Mermaid Beach, Burleigh and Currumbin.

I'm happy to map this (I've done a rough party in front one already) but I'd like some advice as to what constitutes safe/lean/slight in the dollar terms.

Actually, Algester has changed – Centrebet still has Labor the favourites, while Sportsbet has the LNP favourite. A few others, too… Hmmm… actually, quite a few others have changed. I’ll update my lists if I get time in the next couple of days, but no guarantees.

[Smid]

It seems that Labor's intensely grubby and personally negative campaign against Campbell Newman has backfired, with a Galaxy Poll in today's Sunday Mail showing that the Premier's approvals have crashed seven points in the past month to just 36%. Her disapprovals have jumped nine points to 61%. The 2PP would be 60-40 if the election replicated the poll. Labor's primary vote is 30%, while the LNP primary vote is just below 50%.

Has he pulled ahead in his own constituency yet?

He was ahead, then two polls last week put him behind, but a Newspoll published on Friday had him back ahead at 52-48 with a primary vote of 49 compared to Labor's 44. Antony Green updated his blog post on the topic to reflect that (first paragraph).

I don't tend to quote myself, but in this instance there has been a bit of an update (Antony Green has updated his blog above), and The Courier Mail says Campbell's pulled ahead in the latest Reachtel poll (which was one of the ones that previously had him behind, at 54-46 2PP.

Reachtel has published its numbers on it's website. I found question 3 particularly relevant, and as voters in Ashgrove consider their selection, I think they're reaching the same conclusion as that question asks, and this is part of what has driven the increase in Campbell's numbers since the last poll. If you don't want to click the link, the question asked:

Assuming the LNP wins Government on Saturday, would you prefer an LNP government with or without Campbell Newman as leader?

With - 57.2%
Without - 42.8%

The primary vote figures for Reachtel were:

Sample Size = 931 voters

Campbell Newman, LNP - 49.0%
Kate Jones, ALP - 40.8%
Dr Sandra Bayley, GRN - 7.5%
Noramn Wicks, KAP - 1.8%
Trevor Jones, Ind - 0.5%
Ian Nelson, ONP - 0.4%

2PP, based on last election distribution of preferences - 54.2% vs 45.8% to the LNP.

EDIT:

The Courier Mail is reporting that a Galaxy poll is also just out (sample size = 800), with similar results to the Reachtel poll. It notes that while Reachtel is automated, Galaxy is speaks with voters and weights its sample demographically (that bit sounds like it's been taken straight from the Galaxy press release...). Galaxy puts Campbell at 52% primary vote to Labor's 38%. The 2PP ends up at 55-45.

[Smid]

There is more polling on the Reachtel website, I might jot down their primary vote stats here, while I'm at it. It's all automated polling, and it's constituency polling, so all the risks inherent in that... so apply salt to taste. They had some earlier polls of Ferny Grove, South Brisbane, Lytton, Ipswich and Bundamba, but they were all before the close of nominations and probably not especially useful. The Lytton poll had the LNP with a comfortable lead in primary vote, which I would find very surprising, and most people expressing a primary vote preference for the LNP were doing so "to change the government" which suggests that the support there is not likely to erode, but it was without candidates being declared and before the campaign even started, so things may have changed in the interim.

Hinchinbrook and Beaudesert = 9 March

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EDIT: On the other hand, the Lytton results would probably lead to a 2PP not dissimilar to the Mayoral result in Wynnum-Manly last time Campbell Newman was elected. The ward and the electorate have a fair degree of overlap, but Labor ran a pretty lacklustre campaign in the city council election because the result was pretty much a foregone conclusion, whereas this time they got down in the dirt and flung mud constantly.

[Smid]

One day left and the Courier Mail has published the cross-tabs from Galaxy's polling. The polling figures are broken down into three regions - Brisbane, Gold & Sunshine Coasts, Other, and into Male/Female, and also into age brackets: 18-24, 25-34, 35-49, 50+

This gives a total of 24 different sets of polling figures, which have been tracked across three polls - March 2012, February 2012, March 2009.

There are a couple of limitations - it would be nice if they could provide a "total" figure alongside the male/female and age sections to give a regional poll, similar to the statewide polling data they release, and it would be helpful to find out how certain seats are categorised, generally... Ipswich, for example (and Ipswich West and Bundamba) are not in the Brisbane City Council area, but I would not be horrified to learn that they were included in the Brisbane figure... indeed, that's probably where they fit best - they're certainly not coastal, and including them in the regional figures would be incorrect, I think. Where does Beaudesert fit? I wouldn't say Brisbane, but whether it's slotted in with the coastal seats as sort of coastal hinterland, or whether it's rural and regional... I just don't know... Logan is similar to Ipswich. I'm sure Ipswich and Logan and Waterford would be counted with Brisbane, but I'd just like to know for certain.

[Smid]

So changes to those betting odds I quoted the other day... I won't give exact dollar figures for every electorate, just where the favourite has changed. I think that's all of them.

In Algester, the LNP is quoted from $1.59 to $1.95 and Labor from $1.78 to $2 ($1.59 vs $2 on one site, and $1.78 vs $1.95 on the other site).

In Ipswich West, the LNP is now favourite (previously Labor was favoured) at $1.70 vs $1.85.

In Mulgrave, the LNP is now favourite (previously tied) at $1.65 vs $2.65.

In Morayfield, the LNP and Labor are now tied at $1.80 (previously Labor was favoured).

In Thuringowa, the LNP is now favourite (previously Labor was favoured) at $1.53 vs $2.25.

[Smid]

The Senate has fixed terms. To keep half Senate elections coinciding with House elections, there's only a window of a year or so. Antony Green has a good piece about it, but I don't remember the link. I think I've mentioned it before, so if you search comments I've made previously on this board or the International General Discussion board, you'll probably find it. It's not in the Prime Minister's interest to have an early election called.

[Smid]

And the regional block is removed:

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Polls close at 6 (Queensland time, which is not on daylight savings) so that's hake an hour away. Early results will be in an hour to hour and a half away.

[Smid]

I was Brisbane born and raised (southside). Met a girl and moved to Melbourne five years ago. My parents are in the Stretton electorate. The LNP candidate is apparently the mother of a classmate of mine or my brother in primary school, the Labor candidate was a uni buddy and drinking mate and the independent was formerly Labor's campaign manager out that way in elections gone by, so I knew him pretty well, too.

[Smid]

Still early. Depends what booths are in and may not mean much. Her seat has experienced much development and gentrification over the past decade/fifteen years. If those booths report early, it could distort the figures. Other areas are likely to go more for the Greens, but will be balanced by booths with a stronger Liberal presence. She tends to do okay with Greens voters, however, from what I've heard, so if they've deserted her, I guess she could be in trouble. Have to wait and see if the trend holds.

[Smid]

I say this with total objectivity - this win is ridiculously disproportionate.

The LNP don't deserve a majority this big ... full stop.

About as disproportionate as the 2001 election, when Labor won a similar majority in an election triggered by a half dozen Labor MPs, including the Deputy Premier, resigning following allegations of electoral fraud. Given the circumstances of that election, this result is substantially better, and I say that with total objectivity.

[Smid]

Election night, incomplete results: