Is it possible to ban gerrymandering? (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 28, 2024, 06:00:24 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  General Politics
  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderators: muon2, 100% pro-life no matter what)
  Is it possible to ban gerrymandering? (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Is it possible to ban gerrymandering?  (Read 5675 times)
krazen1211
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,372


« on: January 02, 2012, 09:48:52 PM »

There needs to be a legal definition for gerrymandering first.
Logged
krazen1211
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,372


« Reply #1 on: January 03, 2012, 06:44:14 PM »
« Edited: January 03, 2012, 07:18:14 PM by krazen1211 »

I've dug up a couple more states and modified my rounding rules to be consistent. Most of the PVI's reported are in whole numbers so a D+5.2 = D+5. I'll round the PVI to the nearest percent before using it to determine the status of a district. That matters for instance in IL where 3 districts are between D+5.0 and D+5.5.

I can also measure the swing seat composition of a map with a similar technique. Add half the lean districts (PVI 2-5) to the even seats (PVI 0-1) to get a total. The swing seat factor (SSF) is the square of that total should be roughly equal to the number of districts in the state if the map has neither too few nor too many swing districts.

IL (18): Partisan Difference D+6, Partisan Bias 25.6%, PBF 21.2, Swing seats 4, SSF 16.
NJ (12): PD D+2.5, PBI 16.4%, PBF 3.9, Swing seats 2.5, SSF 6.
PA (18): PD R+4.5, PBI 27.0%, PBF 23.6, Swing seats 4.5, SSF 20.
WA (10): PD D+1, PBI 5.0%, PBF 0.3, Swing seats 3, SSF 9.

What this would suggest is that IL and PA are partisan gerrymanders, and NJ is fair but leans towards incumbent protection. WA passes this partisan test, though it could have other problems on purely geographical factors like county integrity.

How would this work with Massachusetts and its 0 swing seats?

As I understand it these are the Massachusetts PVIs.

1: D+14
2: D+12
3: D+8
4: D+11
5: D+15
6: D+6
7: D+30
8: D+8
9: D+7
Logged
krazen1211
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,372


« Reply #2 on: January 03, 2012, 07:46:34 PM »

Massachusetts has some seats which would be swing seats by PVI but are solid Dem because of the total lack of quality GOP candidates.

I certainly agree with the general notion that the failure of a party to win swing seats is not the fault of the map. Michigan, for instance, has only 2 McCain districts and the strongest of those is 50.34% McCain.
Logged
krazen1211
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,372


« Reply #3 on: January 04, 2012, 04:22:39 PM »

Massachusetts has some seats which would be swing seats by PVI but are solid Dem because of the total lack of quality GOP candidates.

I certainly agree with the general notion that the failure of a party to win swing seats is not the fault of the map. Michigan, for instance, has only 2 McCain districts and the strongest of those is 50.34% McCain.

How many of the districts were won by Bush in 2004?


9. Incidentally Bush won 10 districts on the current map and the legislature eliminated a Bush district.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.022 seconds with 12 queries.